Sunday, 29 September 2013

Terrible Results Update

Another shocking day for the systems yesterday. Going to keep this update short again and save my thoughts for the monthly review. A shocking day for the Aways again and the systems have created a substantial loss on Aways this season so far. I’ve discussed before how these bets bring huge volatility with them due to the average odds but this has been a horrible start to the season for Aways. Homes have actually started OK this season.  If I wind the clock back 12 months, it was the complete opposite!

Here’s the results:

Est Systems

Only 13 winners from 72 bets and no winners on systems 6-22+. A loss of 35.75pts. Terrible.

New Systems

34 winners from 120 bets and a loss of 33.19pts. Terrible.

Misc Systems

19 winners from 62 bets. A loss of 15.06pts. Terrible.

Draw Systems

19 winners from 59 bets. A profit of 11.61pts. Terrible. Ah wait, that’s not terrible. First profit for these systems this season, that’s what’s terrible about it!

Under/Over Systems

Best systems this season continue to make small profits. A profit of 1.39pts from 7 bets. Have I ever said I hate these systems before? I hate them even more at the moment than I usually do. It’s like they are laughing at me as the other systems go towards trying to make me bankrupt!

Overall, another substantial loss for this update. 71pts lost from 320 bets. Terrible, terrible, terrible.

Next post should be the monthly review. Going to take my time with it as there is a lot to look at I think.

Saturday, 28 September 2013

Results Update

Going to keep this update fairly short. No point in spending time discussing anything in depth when we have another set of bets today and then I’ll be in month end mode and turning my attention to the review of the month. Hence, I’ll keep any thoughts until the monthly review.

In summary, it has been another tough week and things show no sign of turning. Last Saturday was much better in terms of my ratings doing well but similar to the previous midweek, many of my teams lost late leads and the draw was a real pest last weekend. Midweek was a little better as there were two large bets and one of these managed to win but I’d have preferred the other team to win as it appeared on more systems.

Anyway, here’s the results update for last weekend and the midweek.

Est Systems

24 winners from 94 bets and another large loss of 21.26pts. The draw was a nuisance for these systems as you can see by the fact the AH0.5 return was a profit. We’ll see what happens this weekend but if these systems suffer another loss, likely to be the worst ever start to a season for these systems.

New Systems

57 winners from 178 bets which is slightly better than the systems have been doing recently! A loss of 10.53pts. The AH returns were all much the same and the draw hasn’t had the same impact on these systems as on the Est Systems. Similar to the Est Systems, a lot depends on what happens with the bets today in terms of whether or not this is the worst start these systems have suffered to a season.

Misc Systems

The really poor start to the season continues for these systems. Only 20 winners from 80 bets and a loss of 18.48pts. The draw impacted a little but all the AH returns were loss making, so it’s just a really poor set of results for these systems again. In terms of pts lost, this is likely to be the worst start to a season but Sep-11 still has a slightly worse ROI even though it was based on fewer bets, so all to play for going into today!

Draw Systems

These have really been shocking so far this season and I’ll give them today before I decide whether or not I personally stop betting on these. I know it’s too early to draw conclusions but I haven’t enjoyed placing these bets as I said on the last post, I’ve no confidence in the systems and even though I am only following 2 systems with low turnover, I’m starting to think I’d feel better just watching these this season.

8 winners from 57 games and a loss of 29.26pts.

Under/Over Systems

The stars of the show so far this season. OK, that’s not saying much given every system is loss making but another profit of 1.55pts here with 5 winners from 9. Currently on course for their best start to a season for 4 seasons! Of course, with so few bets, all profit could be lost today and they end up loss making this month but we’ll see what happens.

Overall, a loss of 78pts from 418 bets for this update. There are over 300 system bets today, so I could do with a profit on the day to try to get the season started as it really does feel like the season hasn’t started yet. Well, the season has started but my ratings haven’t started working yet!

Hopefully today is a little better. Next update will be from today’s games and then I’ll start trying to unpick the month in the monthly review. Should be an interesting review! 

Sunday, 22 September 2013

Results from last weekend and midweek games

(This was written on Friday afternoon but didn’t get an opportunity to post it until this morning. After yesterday’s heavy losses again, adds a little more context to my comments below about what happened two seasons ago!)

This is the results update for last weekend and the midweek games. To say it has been a poor start this season is maybe a little bit of an understatement although the midweek was a little bit better than the weekend but the overall result was still a loss in midweek too. Been in this situation before as I reminded someone on Twitter this week and the start this season seems to mirror the start from two seasons ago whereby my ratings didn’t start well. Two seasons ago, the losses in the first month were substantial (much worse than where they are at the moment) but the systems followed up with 8 winning months in a row.  No guarantee we’ll see the same bounce back here but it’s too early to be panicking just yet.

Here’s the results by system…..

Est Systems

Only 18 winners from 85 system bets and a loss of 36.30pts. You can see that the returns improved as the draw coverage increased and therefore, the systems have hit a little too many draws but even so, no matter how you played the bets, it was impossible to escape from a hefty loss.

A really slow start to the season for these systems.  To try to put it into context of the season two seasons ago, these systems only hit 63 winners from 274 bets (23% strike rate) and a loss of 31.4% was created (86pts) in the first month then.

So far this season, 23 winners from 96 bets (24% strike rate) and a loss of 36.9% (35pts).

As you can see, these systems are tracking pretty close to the performance then. Still plenty of time left this month for the systems to create a bigger loss and get closer to the performance from two seasons ago! On the other hand, if they start performing like we know they can, they could still end the month in profit.

For those that think we may be onto something with the first month proving difficult, last season, these systems achieved a profit of 73.2pts (26% ROI) in the first month and if you go back 3 seasons, it was 49pts profit (17.5% ROI). Hence, it looks like the systems may go good/bad/good/bad for the first month of the last 4 seasons!

New Systems

A very similar story here really as the Est Systems. A loss of 48.79pts from 127 bets. Only 29 winners were found.

Although these systems were impacted by the poor start two seasons ago, it wasn’t as bad as we are seeing now. These systems “only” lost 62pts from 482 bets then. So far this season, it’s a loss of 43pts from 150 bets. Hence, with a lot more bets to come this month, these systems could easily outdo the poor performance from two seasons ago.

As for last season, as many will recall, these systems started last season on fire and made a profit of 121pts from 388 bets. Hence, it’s a massive disappointment to see them struggle so far this season.

A poor start to the season for these systems too but in a couple of months last season, we saw these systems produce profits in excess of 100pts, so any loss could be recouped quickly as long as the hole at the end of this month isn’t too deep!

Misc Systems

Given these systems are predominantly linked to the previous two sets of systems, it’s not surprising in the least to see these systems really struggle so far this season. Only 14 winners from 80 bets and a loss of 33.40pts.

A 31.5pts loss from 90 bets this season so far and a really poor start. Again though, this is actually in line with two seasons ago where a loss of 34pts from 112 bets was created. We’re just a little bit worse off than that at the moment although the bet number for this month is going to be much higher as a result of TOX, STOY and STOZ having much more bets than that previous season.

The fact the systems TOX, STOY and STOZ have started poorly is more frustrating given they follow a different method than my other ratings but so far, it has been very difficult to find winners on any systems.

Under-Over Systems

A little bit of irony here that these systems have started the season off well. 6 winners from 9 since the last update and a profit of 3.51pts. Overall this season, 1.5pts profit from 11 bets. I would have taken that on any other system so far this season given the start! Early days though and I’ll be surprised if these systems do much better than break-even again this season based on what I saw last season. I’d love these to show that they have an edge and I’d happily follow them (I don’t mind where I make money betting!) in future but we’ll see what happens.

Draw Systems

I think the first comment I should make (since I want to be as honest as I can) is that I haven’t enjoyed following these systems so far. Not sure what it is but when I’m placing these bets myself, I don’t do it with confidence. Obviously, with it being the first season, I know the risks involved and the performance of these systems will not have any real impact on the performance of my betting portfolio this season but even so, I think my issue is I struggle with the fact I can’t see I’m getting value.

With many of my other bets, they are well backed teams, shorten in the market before the game takes place and I sort of see why I have an edge backing these teams. The problem with the draws for me is that it looks fairly random and I honestly don’t know why I’m backing some games to be a draw!

Others reading this are probably thinking to themselves that they have no idea why they are backing any of the system bets (especially at the moment!) but I have struggled a little with the draws.

I don’t think my mood was helped by a 97th minute goal ruining the first maximum bet on the draws this season and to rub salt in the wounds, the other systems threw up the losing side, so I had bets on the Away side and the draw and the 97th minute goal turned a nice profit into a substantial loss for me.

It’s a tricky one but I do tend to go with my gut feel at this game when it comes to betting. I wasn’t a fan of the Under-Over systems from the day I built them. I also wasn’t a fan of the Euro systems last season (or this season) and I was sort of proved right last season unfortunately. Interestingly, I have been a massive fan of the draw systems since I developed them but when it has come to placing my bets, I have had my reservations.

I’ll give it a bit more time (can’t stop backing the bets based on the first few bets I’ve placed!) and maybe if the big game had finished a draw, my mood would be different but I doubt it.

Anyway, the P&L isn’t too bad and it’s a loss of 15.27pts from 54 bets. To put it in perspective, the big bet was on 11 systems at 3.52. Hence, the late goal caused an 11pt loss instead of 27pts profit. 38pt swing in the 7th minute of injury time! Ouch.

This season, 20.7pts loss from 63 bets.


I can recall maybe 6 updates worse than this one over the last 4 seasons (maybe been more but I can’t remember every scar!) but a loss of 130pts from 355 bets. Amazing to think a set of ratings and systems could lose that when they are probably playing against an over-round of 5%-6% at the prices I’m quoting but it has happened.

I think the important thing for everyone (myself included) is to keep this loss in perspective and carry on. Yes, it’s frustrating and annoying to dig ourselves a massive hole but it has been a tricky start this season. Anyone who watched the scores for the midweek games will be aware of the fact that if Middlesboro had held onto a 2-0 lead at Forest, the loss in this update would have been nearly halved. Last weekend, there were a few late goals against us and although they only turned draws into losses, for anyone following AH0 or the like, it still hurts.

I would say we are a little worse off than we deserve to be so far this season but make no mistake about it, the systems deserve to be losing so far. They’ve not been good enough and at the end of the day, this is what this game is about. It’s first round to the bookmakers and we probably lost it 10-8 but having watched the Ricky Burns fight recently, being Scottish probably means we escaped that round with a 10-9 loss or even a 10-10, so we’re still in the game.

My issue with the last comment is that when the ratings don't do well, I expect to lose. However, if we suddenly get a few late goals going against us or a little bit of bad luck, add that to the poor start by the ratings and we'll be looking at a substantial loss for the first month. Let's hope things turn tomorrow.

Back after this weekend. 

Saturday, 7 September 2013

Good to be back.....

It’s the first weekend of September, so we all know what that means….yes, Strictly Come Dancing is back on our TV screens. Oh yeah, I’m back blogging the TFA results again too. ;)

It wasn’t my intention to be so quiet on the blog over the Summer but something had to give in my life and it was the blog unfortunately. After a 3rd great season last season, I took on another 35 members or so in the Summer and with another batch of new systems for next season, it was a very busy Summer helping everyone get up to speed for this upcoming season.

I don’t want to lay it on too thick but I spent a LOT of time doing admin this Summer and building Excel sheets with portfolios of systems for subscribers. I had a single weeks break over an 8 week spell and I was putting in 2-3 hours every night replying to emails and doing stuff in Excel. I know it was greatly appreciated by everyone I communicated with and no matter what happens this season, I don’t think I could have prepared everyone anyone better.

This season is a big season for my own betting too and I’m taking that next step on the ladder to hopefully someday being able to earn more from my betting annually as I can from my career. Long way away from this at the moment but this season is another step on the ladder for me, so it’s a big season for me personally. Last season was a great season for me betting wise and I’m reinvesting a chunk of my winnings from last season to grow my betting bank further, so the game is slightly more serious than it was before for me. We’ll see how I do!

I again have a system on Bet Advisor and I don’t think I can do much worse than last season on there, so we’ll see how that goes. I wrote a review of where it went wrong for me on Bet Advisor last season and it can be read here. In summary, the system was the worst system I had from all my systems last season which is Sod’s Law really but hoping I can do better this season. No one is following on Bet Advisor though as the system started with no results and most other tipsters on there have amazing records, so it will take a season of good results before I get anyone interested on Bet Advisor I think. We’ll see how I do!

Some of you may have seen this on Cassini’s blog but I have agreed to put a system into the FTL (Friendly Tipster League) that Cassini runs. Being honest, I don’t have too much to gain as it’s not like I need the publicity considering no one can join the service these days but I guess it’s another test (similar to Bet Advisor) where I’m curious to see how I compare to others.

I did come across like an arrogant pric* I suspect in some of the comments but given my record at building systems and getting them to work, based on the results of each person in the FTL last season, my system should dominate the league over the season as long as my ratings have a season like the last 3 seasons. Of course, if I have a poor season (I’m possibly due one!), then I will be made to look a little foolish but I’ll have bigger issues on my hands if my ratings have a poor season than caring where I finish in Cassini’s league!

Last but not least, one complaint I’ve had this Summer is that the service isn’t accessible to enough people. I’ve turned down a lot of subscribers (and a lot of subscription fees!) by not letting more people join. The service closed in July which meant many people missed out but quite simply, given the amount of help I give to subscribers, the more new members I have, the harder the work for me. If I took on any more this Summer, I would never have got around everyone and some would be starting the season and still waiting on help from me. In addition, the service has grown slowly as I want to ensure I never get to the stage where people can't achieve the recommended odds. 

One way around this is to allow people to buy a portfolio of system bets rather than just give them 53 systems of bets. I could just supply a list of bets to follow and people could follow them rather than me supplying thousands of bets each season and getting people to filter the bets to get their own portfolio. I’m running a test in the SBC forum where I’ve built 10 test portfolios, so it will be interesting to see how they do this season. It may open the door for more people to follow the bets in future and reduce my workload at the same time.

Anyway, that’s a brief update of why I vanished from the blog for a bit. Back now though and like the last 3 seasons, I’ll be using the blog to update the system results.

Today was the first day of bets and below are the results. In total, there were 55 system bets (including the 2 Under 2.5 bets). Overall, a loss of 1.3pts today.

I think today is a great example of how difficult it is going to be this season to keep track of results if purely reading the blog. A loss of 1.3pts isn’t really indicative of the results today and I would be amazed if too many people suffered a loss today. The Draw systems and Under system created the loss but I’d be pulling my hair out if people are following these systems rather than any of the other systems. Hence, I don’t think too many would have had a losing day today.  I had a nice start to the season myself which is always good news!  ;)

There are no midweek games, so next update will be after next weekend.  It’s good to be back, it’s like I’ve never been away. ….