Sunday, 24 February 2013

Weekly update

A really good week again for the systems. I said in the last post that if the systems could finish February well and hold onto the profits already achieved, it could give us something to build on for the rest of the season. We had a really good midweek followed by a so-so weekend and therefore, the systems are close to doing as I wanted and are actually accumulating more profits.  There is still a busy midweek fixture list to come but assuming the systems don’t go mad, February should see a long overdue return to profitability after 3 losing months in a row.

I have one Euro bet outstanding for Monday evening. For this update, I have assumed the selection has lost the game. Obviously, if they win or draw, I’ll update my records.

Est Systems

Hasn’t been the best week for system 21 considering it’s the only system from this set that has been doing well this season but it has been a good week for the higher combined systems. About time too I hear most of you shout but good things come to those who wait!

Overall, a profit of 31.62pts from 86 bets.  A really good performance again and they are slowly starting to build up some momentum. The combined systems made 17.53pts from 33 bets which is a great return and much more like it.  7-21 thru to 8-22 made a profit of 16.42pts from 10 bets.  Can’t recall too many updates like this for these higher combined systems this season. 

New Systems

An exceptional performance by these systems this week to keep the month going.  A profit of 63.48pts from 157 bets.  System 41 was the star of the show with a profit of 19.75pts from 38 bets. Great run by this system. 

Misc Systems

 A profit of 16.55pts from 65 bets. A really good midweek return was spoilt somewhat by a poor weekend if I’m honest but over the week, it’s a very good return. TOX, STOY and STOZ were the best performers again and they really are showing up most of the other systems this season. 

Under/Over Systems

A profit of 0.8pts from 16 bets. A good midweek spoilt by a poor weekend. Overall, the systems continue to struggle in the main.

Euro Systems

A profit of 2.1pts from 87 bets this weekend. I think the most alarming thing at the moment is the run of the 2nd algorithm! The current drawdown is around 40pts but it has accumulated over the last 122 bets. That’s a dreadful run. I make it 29 wins in this time, with 83 losers. Average odds are quite high at 4.00 and if I look at a number of games, there are a lot of big priced teams who have drawn and of course, that would make this run nowhere near as bad but as it stands, it’s a shocking run!

Overall then, a profit of 114.55 from 411 bets for this update. Great return again and this month continues to be a decent month.  Just need to navigate the midweek fixtures and then I can look back on this month and do the usual monthly review.  

Tuesday, 19 February 2013

Season Results to 17th Feb 2013

I had a comment from Diego on the last post saying he couldn’t find the latest system results. I’ve said this before but I’ve steered away from looking at the results over the season as I tend to do the daily updates and then do a review at the end of every month.

If I’m going to look at the season, I’m as well looking at all live results (makes this season look like a blip on some systems!) but at the end of the day, even when I post the results for the season, people can interpret them in many different ways.

I feel like I’m forever apologising on here but it’s been a terrible season and compared to the first two seasons of live results, you’d think it was a different set of systems. However, every season can’t be like the first two seasons I guess and we’re going to have to suffer some ups and downs on our way to the Holy Grail of profits. (This is tongue in cheek before someone picks me up on it!)

Looking quickly at the table ( I don’t tend to look at the system results in one table), the thing that strikes me the most is the fact the Misc Systems and New Systems look so much better than the Est Systems, the Euro Systems and the Under/Over Systems this season.

Going into the season, it was hard to imagine the season would pan out this way but it again highlights the need for diversification I think. Definitely makes it more interesting for next season that we seem to have a bigger range of profitable systems to follow.

Anyway, hope this is what you are after Diego……

Monday, 18 February 2013

Poor week........

A poor week for the systems which to be honest, I was sort of waiting for. The month had started amazingly well but as is always the case with betting, if you get too far ahead of yourself, you’re soon brought back into line swiftly.

The homes in particular were on a really decent run, so seeing a large number of home bets thrown up at the weekend meant they were either going to go into record breaking territory or a small correction was due. The correction took place!

Anyway, hopefully it’s a small blip and the systems can continue on their way this month as so far, it’s been a good month.

Est Systems

I was actually surprised at how bad the last week had been for these systems but it was a really poor week. A loss of 26.71pts from 84 bets. The AH returns were also poor across the board and the weekend in particular was a very poor weekend for these systems. Frustrating stuff as they had started the month really well but as has happened so often with these systems this season, they can’t get any momentum going at all.

New Systems

Not a disaster for these systems this week but all the good results during the week were undone by a really poor weekend. Overall, a loss of 12.15pts from 106 bets.  The AH returns were all in line with this loss, so draws weren’t to blame at all.

Misc Systems

A really poor weekend for these systems also. A loss of 13.78pts from 50 bets this week. AH returns were all worse, so again, no draws to worry about here, just losses!

Under/Over Systems

 A loss of 1.12pts from 12 bets. I hate these systems!

Euro Systems

Some strange results again for these systems. The result are over the place every week and it’s hard to fathom out what’s happening. This week, the stronger bets did OK but the weaker bets were a disaster. Not seen that too often this season but overall, they continue to tread water.  A loss of 2.5pts from 85 bets.

Overall, a loss of 56.26pts from 337 bets.

The next few weeks are crucial to the season. If the systems can build on where we are currently in February, I’ll be able to look forward to the rest of the season. If they throw away the profits already gained in February, I’ll be pulling my hair out again and it will be a major kick in the balls I think.

There is a busy midweek card followed by a busy weekend, so plenty of bets left this month even though it’s a short month.

Monday, 11 February 2013

Weekend Update

A quick update for the weekend results.  Another profitable set of fixtures and this month has got off to a decent start. I know it can’t continue like this for too long but I can always dream!

Est Systems

A profit of 20.14pts from 86 bets. The combined systems had a great weekend again and for the first time since September, the systems are starting to look like the systems I remember from last season!

New Systems

 A profit of 13.82pts from 87 bets. A decent return here too.

Misc Systems

A profit of 25.93pts from 56 bets. Not sure any of my systems have ever had a better start to a month than these systems this month!  I’d be happy if they could get through the rest of the month with the same profit they have now but it’s never as easy as that, is it?

Over/Under Systems

A loss of 2.67pts from 11 games. Seems these systems have gone off the boil again. Not too surprised, they are rubbish systems!

Euro Systems

The tough start to the month continues for these systems and it’s a loss of 17.3pts from 116 bets.  Too many draws again here and seems a common story on these systems at the moment.

Overall, a profit of 39.92pts from 356 bets. Consolidates the profits made last week but a long, long way to go this month!

Tuesday, 5 February 2013

A few more weekends like this please......

I’m not going to say too much in this post after what happened in January! The systems followed up one of the best weekends of the season with the worst weekend of the season. Well, the weekend past was the best weekend of the season for the UK systems, so I await the likely downturn soon. :(

So, onto the results.

Est Systems

A profit of 62.15pts from 95 bets. A great weekend and really good to see the combined systems bounce back after a terrible month last month. Long way to go this month but if they have another losing month this month, my body will probably be found washed up on a beach somewhere!

New Systems

A profit of 70.98pts from 120 bets.  The only disappointment (if you can call it that!) is that the higher combined systems didn’t have more bets. It was hard for the systems to lose given the results of the ratings.

Misc Systems

I love these 6 systems! :)  A profit of 49.32pts from 62 bets. I’ll need to look at the Home results for the systems TOX, STOY and STOZ but I told a few subscribers to follow the homes on these bets if they wanted some extra bets this season. Felt bad for this all season as the homes have been terrible but slowly but surely, they’ve turned it around on these systems.

Under-Over Systems

Great results for the Over system and shocking results for the Under system. Said that a few times this season! Overall, a loss of 0.76pts from 9 bets.

Euro Systems

A difficult weekend for these bets again but they were a little unlucky in places. The average odds was quite high this week, so it only needed one game to go their way and they would have been in profit.

Overall, a loss of 27.6pts from 89 bets.

In total then, since the last update, a profit of 154pts from 375 bets.  If I only I could have a few more weekends like this before the end of the season……….

Saturday, 2 February 2013

Down but not out.......

One thing that a subscriber asked me to look at recently is the current drawdowns being experienced by each system. We all know it’s been a really poor run by a lot of systems but are any of the systems close to busting their betting bank this season?

I’ve pulled together the table below.  It shows the recommended betting bank for each system, the max historical drawdown, average odds of each bet and the current drawdown at the end of Jan-13. I’ve then calculated the current drawdown as a % of the max drawdown and lastly, I’ve shown the current drawdown as a % of the betting bank for each system.

There are two things I take from this table I think. Firstly, only system 7-22 is past the 50% mark in terms of losing its betting bank.  Another 3 are past the 40% mark but beyond that, there is nothing too alarming I think in terms of systems losing their betting bank. The betting banks were based on historical drawdowns and therefore, there are a few systems that are now at their worst historical drawdown as I’ve highlighted in the table.

The second thing I take from this is this table is that we’re currently going through a very rough spell but it’s nothing outside of normal variance at the moment. I say at the moment as I’ve no idea what is around the corner and another 3 months like the last 3 months will see lots of systems close to losing their betting banks I guess but we don’t know what will happen next.

You can see from the table that it is the Established Systems struggling the most and in particular, the 6 combined systems. Very frustrating considering they entered this season off the back of 8 winning months in a row but then again, maybe it isn’t too surprising that they are experiencing a rough spell. I tend to think you can only outrun variance for so long and possibly, hitting 8 winning months in a row is pushing it to the extreme, so we may be seeing a slightly correction here.  They started the season with 2 winning months also, so after 10 winning months in a row, maybe 3 losing months isn’t as unexpected as we all think?

Anyway, I’m sure everyone can take something different from this table and ultimately, it confirms that we’re in the midst of a very difficult spell but hopefully, the table shows we’re down but not out!

A big weekend coming up for the systems with a lot of high value bets, so let’s hope we start to see some form of recovery this weekend.

Friday, 1 February 2013

January 2013 Review

Well, for the 3rd month in a row, it’s a losing month. I do find it fascinating that the systems could achieve 17 profitable months in a row from the first 20 month of live results and then follow it up with 3 losing months in a row.

17 winning months from 23 isn’t a disaster and it’s not uncommon to have losing months when you are betting (I know a month doesn’t mean anything to anyone before anyone leaves a smart comment!) but it I do find patterns of results interesting at times.

One thing I would say is that although every month is independent of one another, I do think there is historical evidence in this football ratings market of services struggling for a season and then bouncing back the next season with the same ratings. I’m starting to feel like this season is already a write off for me and in a way, I just want the season ended. I really hope the last 4 months of the season are much more profitable than the first 5 months but we’ll see what happens.

I’m not sure I can put my finger on what is different this season compared to the last two seasons (apart from the obvious that teams are winning as often!) but I think if you look at things like the number of bets on the systems, you can start to identify that this season is a bit different to last season as there are more bets.

Anyway, I’ll have all Summer to dissect what has happened this season, so let’s concentrate on the month of Jan-13.

Est Systems

At a high level, a loss of 16pts from 353 bets. 9 of the 11 systems had fairly small losses and 2 systems had a small profit.  Interestingly, the AH returns were a good bit worse and therefore, that confirms that it has been a very poor month for these rating algorithms and these systems. It is only the 5th month from 60 months of results that all 4 betting types (outright, AH0, AH0.25 and AH0.5) have lost money in the month.

There was one really good day in the month where 58.6pts profit was obtained but there were only 6 winning days from 16 days and a few of the winning days were very small. I think if this month had come about off the back of some decent results, seeing small losses on most systems isn’t a disaster but unfortunately, this month follows a very poor spell. 

In terms of the individual system results, algorithm one lost 6.6pts from 73 bets. I guess the only positive is the fact that system 7 reduced this loss and system 8 turned it into a profit. Too often this season, the first algorithm hasn’t managed to narrow down the bets successfully at all, so this is a little better but reducing losses isn’t really the aim of the filtering, it’s meant to be about maximising profits!

Algorithm two had a steady month and only lost 0.9pts from 65 bets. Algorithm two again cements its position as the best rating algorithm as it lost the least amount this month from all the rating algorithms I’m running!

The combined system results are hard to fathom as they are all over the place. In total, a 6.3pts loss which isn’t great but isn’t as bad as the last two months losses (13.5pts and 26.4pts). I wouldn’t exactly call it a step in the right direction but a small loss is much better than a large loss!

I think the stat that sums up this month is the fact that using AH0.5 on all bets lost 16.2pts on the combined systems. This is only the second month since the systems went live that this method has resulted in more than a 1pt loss.  Hence, in terms of this, it is probably the 2nd worst month since inception as in the other big losing months, I could point to the fact the AH0.5 made a profit and it was simply down to too many teams drawing.

It’s always impossible to pick out where it is going wrong but you can’t get away from the fact that during the first two seasons, the bets on the top 4 combined systems (7-21 to 8-22) were the most profitable and the rest of the systems lived off these profits. This season, backing all teams on 7-21 to 8-22 is a loss making strategy and this underpins the issues the systems are having this season. I find it amazing that 6-21 can make any profit at all this season when the very best bets are heavily loss making.

I’ve already touched on my concerns with the first two rating algorithms possibly being a little outdated in previous posts but that’s the only conclusion I can draw at the moment. The systems built on more recent data are easily doing much better and have been since day one this season. It’s like someone flicked a switch at the end of last season and the edge on the combined systems vanished overnight.

I suspect the fate of the service hinges on what happens with these Est Systems over the rest of this season. Although other services have successfully bounced back from a losing season, they didn’t bankrupt all their subscribers whilst doing so! I can only hope that the results on the Est Systems don’t continue to tail off and I end up bankrupting everyone who’s following these systems this season.

Let’s see what February brings…….

New Systems

A loss of 19.4pts across 400 bets. AH0.5 lost 3.8pts in comparison. Therefore, clearly, these systems suffered a little more from the draw factor than the Est Systems but even if backing the draw on every game also, a loss was made, so it wasn’t too much of a hard luck story!

The only positive with these systems is that the actual base ratings on both algorithms made a small profit. System 31 made a profit of 2.6pts from 72 games and system 41 made a profit of 4.4pts from 94bets. On the downside, the systems haven’t managed to narrow the bets down well at all this month. Systems 32,33 and 42 were all loss making and had poor months.

The combined systems lost in total and the top two systems in particular had poor months.

I think the conclusion you can draw here is similar to the Est Systems in the sense the best bets aren’t winning. Admittedly, it’s hard to know what the best bets are on the Est Systems this season as they are all rubbish but going into this month, it was definitely the case that the top two combined systems on the New Systems were throwing out the best bets. The ROI was in excess of 30% on these systems before this month. 33-41 got 1 correct from 9 and 33-42 got 1 correct from 7.

This is the first losing month since these systems went live, so it’s hard to be too critical. They had 3 losing months last season when they didn’t have a great time during backtesting.

I think we need to wait until the end of the season before we can draw any conclusions on these systems as I’ve been saying all season.

Misc Systems

Definitely the biggest disappointment of the month (mostly because these made up a big chunk of my own personal betting!). A loss of 27.9pts from 225 bets. I only know this as it’s from my own betting records but it’s the away bets that have let the side down this month here as there have been a crazy amount of draws. The Homes have had a storming month and have basically saved my bacon this month to a large extent. Using AH0.5 on every bet only had a loss of 3.6pts.

Given the season these systems have had so far, I can’t be too critical of these results really. Aways on these systems have always been very volatile and the Home bets are still the strongest home bets that my ratings produce I think.

I think the issue these systems face at a totality level is that people look at the long-term ROI’s (running at about 6.5%) and decide they aren’t worth following. I think there are some gems of bets in these systems if you can find!

Under-Over Systems

These systems have had the best month of all the systems I think! Anyway, another losing month and they continue to flatter to deceive. A loss of 2.4pts from 43 bets.

The Under system made a profit of 1.2pts from 31 bets and the Over system made a loss of 3.5pts from 12 bets.

Euro Systems

A shocker of a month for these systems but I can lay the blame solely at the door of the draw factor. A loss of 46.7pts from 353 bets but a profit of 11.3pts from AH0.5 betting.

Last month, there was a massive profit from backing outright and a massive loss if using AH0.5, so it’s something of a correction this month.

The base ratings are solely to blame this month and a loss on E1 of 14pts from 62 bets and a loss on E6 of 17pts from 74 bets. The filtering worked the best it’s worked all season though on these systems and E3 was close to breaking even, even though the ratings were rubbish!

This manifested itself on the combined systems also. The top 4 combined systems made a small profit even though the ratings had a disaster of a month!

The systems continue to perplex me just a little and I’m not sure I’ve much faith in these at the moment but similar to the New systems, it’s very early days.


When I started writing this review, I was expecting to reach the end of it, be 100% dejected about how things are going and start looking for the nearest bridge to jump off of.

Now I’ve written the review, I tend to always feel a little better and although things aren’t going well and haven’t been for a while, it’s not a total disaster (yet!).

I’ve said it in the intro above but I sort of already see this season as a poor season and I just hope that the last 4 months of the season don’t undo all the work I’ve put into this so far. My own P&L isn’t great this season but then again, it’s not a disaster either. As long as things don’t go too badly over the next few months, I’ll definitely try to regroup and rebuild in the summer and it will hopefully be another chapter on this journey. I may well be on my own again as I’m not sure too many will fancy following the systems again after this season but we’ll see what happens over the rest of this season.

Midweek Update

A quick update of the midweek results before I turn my attention to the monthly review for January. Not looking forward to it really but it can’t be as bad as updating my own P&L last night for the month!

The midweek again saw a few games postponed that were fairly large bets for me. I think in the last few weeks, there have been a lot of bets postponed that were picked out by a lot of systems. Not sure when these games are all going to be rearranged but I wouldn’t be surprised if Feb or March turn out to be busier than usual in a normal season for the systems.

Anyway, the midweek was again frustrating with a high number of draws. Draws frustrate me more than most things at football betting as at the odds I generally play at, a draw is usually pretty close to a very decent win. If I was betting on 1.5 shots all the time, I wouldn’t have much sympathy if I was hitting draws but when I’m on decent priced aways, it is frustrating (even if I am using AH0!)

Est Systems

3.94pts profit from 24 bets. A profit of over 10pts if using AH0.5 though which shows the draw was a pain again.

New Systems

A profit of 6.4pts from 16 games. Again, AH0.5 was the winner here due to the draw.

Misc Systems

A small 3.8pts profit from 13 bets. Importantly, a nice home winner on the TOX, STOY and STOZ systems. These home bets are probably the only chink of light in an otherwise disaster of a season for Home bets.

Under-Over Systems

This is slightly annoying but just as it looked like these systems were going to create a profit in the month, it is all wiped out and more in the last betting day. In other words, the systems revert to type! A loss of 4pts from 4 games.

Overall, a profit of 10.14pts from 57 games. Wasn’t as bad an update as I was expecting after the comment at the end of my last post!

However, the next post is going to be the monthly review and that’s going to be painful for me……….