Tuesday, 26 November 2013

Weekend Results

Before I get on with the results update from the weekend, a quick shout out for a fellow blogger and now also my favourite SBC columnist, Rowan Day. I’ve not figured out how to put a direct link to Rowan’s blog over at Gallops Live but I have it bookmarked on my iPhone and Rowan tends to update on Twitter when he’s updated a new post, so he’s worth following on Twitter. (@rowanday)  

Rowan has recently started a ‘practical punter’ column which he is writing for the SBC and it’s definitely worth a read. Rowan has been one of TFA’s biggest supporters since the beginning and a lot of my own betting philosophies follow the same idea as Rowan’s, so I always enjoy reading his musings.  He’s had a really tough season following TFA and so much so, he decided to take the plunge and ditch his portfolio of TFA systems to follow a single TFA system again and so far, it’s been the right decision. Long way to go before he recoups earlier losses this season but hopefully he can get paid for his patience this season and start afresh with some new ideas next season for following TFA.

Right, onto the weekend results. Another tough weekend and a lack of winners on most systems. I managed to make a small profit as the home bets did OK and I expect a weekend like that brought together the variance of returns from each subscriber so far this season.  What I mean by that is that anyone doing well before this weekend maybe struggled a little and those that were struggling so far this season probably had an OK weekend. The systems that have been performing well so far this season struggled and the systems that have underperforming did a little better. Still a massive variance between the returns of some systems though.

Overall, only a little better than a break-even weekend for all systems but the Draws were the standout systems again with a nice profit. Looking forward to looking back at the month the draw systems have had as it has been a steady accumulation of profits so far but still got the midweek fixtures tonight and the Saturday fixtures to come, so a lot can happen in a couple of sets of games with these systems!

Est Systems

31 winners from 86 bets and a profit of 3.49pts. System 21 was the issue here with a loss of 4.73pts from 22 bets. 6-22 was fortunate enough to hit the Stevenage winner at nice odds along with another winner.

New Systems

Only 34 winners from 135 bets and a sizable loss of 25.11pts. A real disappointing weekend for these systems and a step in the wrong direction after an OK start to the month. Both rating algorithms were loss making and that led to a fairly large loss on the systems overall.

Misc Systems

 22 winners from 80 bets and a loss of 4.41pts. The 3 STO systems made 0.5pts each but the other 3 systems lost a couple of points each.

Draw Systems

23 winners from 53 bets and a profit of 25.3pts. The bet that appeared on 11 systems won which gave the returns a boost again.  Been a decent month so far but as I said in the intro, a lot can still happen between now and the end of the month!

Euro Systems

A small profit of 4.4pts from 83 bets. I think with the vast majority of these bets now being home bets, the returns have been much more steady this season but it’s very early days. At various times last season, the Euro systems looked like they may had an edge but the returns weren’t great come season end.

Under-Over Systems

3 correct from 6 for a profit of 0.33pts.  Long way to go for these systems to recover losses this month!

Overall, a lot of bets for not a lot of profit. 4pts profit from 443 bets. A profit is a profit though!

There is a midweek card tonight and then we have Saturday’s games before we end the month. It’s always a pain when we have a month that ends on a Saturday as I like to track things by calendar month, so I’ll update all results to Saturday and then start work on the month end results. The Sunday/Monday results will fall into next month’s first update on performance. 

Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Results update for this month so far

Apologies for the lack of results updates on the blog so far this month. Since I completed the monthly review for October, trying to keep up to date with the results has been nearly impossible and I spent a lot of time at the weekend bringing things fully up to date. One issue with having so many rating algorithms and so many systems to track is that Excel doesn’t cope too well with the data due to size limitations and therefore, I have sheets that do the ratings and keep a track of the underlying results for all matches and then I have results sheets that simply track the performance of the systems. I guess the good thing about the way I have this set up is that my lack of time in terms of updating the system results has no impact on my ability to get the next set of ratings generated on each algorithm. What it does mean though is that I spend a lot of time having to input results when I don't keep on top of it!

This update basically covers all games up to the weekend. There are no midweek bets this week, so this will take us up to around the 21st of the month. However, there are still two Saturday’s remaining this month, so a lot of water still needs to flow under the bridge between now and month end. So far though, it has been a good first half of the month.  Profits have been made on all the various sets of systems and it does feel like things have taken a turn for the better.  I’ve been here before this season (a few times!) and therefore, I really don’t know what will happen next but we’ll see what happens.

Est Systems

A profit of 58.44pts from 148 bets so far this month. A really nice return and it’s needed after the start this season. All of the systems have generated a profit although looking at the returns of the higher combined systems, it’s disappointed these are better given the results on systems 6 and 21. Again, the filtering of the systems hasn’t worked anywhere near as well as historically which has been the story of the season so far for the service as a whole.

New Systems

A profit of 42.6pts from 225 bets. Not as good a return as the Est Systems unfortunately but then again, they didn’t dig themselves into the same size of hole before this update as the other systems! I think the weekend past sums up the season to date. 31 and 41 did well, 31-41 did well but all other 5 combined systems lost badly. Hard to take I think for those not following 31-41 but it’s the way the season has gone so far. Trying to filter the bets down has seen the systems remove all the best bets and keep the rubbish.

Misc Systems

A stunning return for these systems and the first time I think I can remember these systems performing like they can this season. A profit of 70.34pts from 124 bets. I know after the last two seasons, many people are relying on these systems in some way or another in a portfolio, so it’s nice to see them perform well. System 6-32 has only made a small profit compared to the other 5 systems but that’s a function of system 32 having a really had time at the moment. Hopefully it improves as the season progresses.

Draw Systems

A solid start to the month for the draw systems to build on the returns from last month. 27.83pts profit from 173 bets. These systems are growing on me just a little and after a shaky start, they are starting to perform well. Interestingly, the higher volume systems have really struggled but I think that’s to do with the underlying trading conditions being very difficult for draws so far this season. As conditions improve, I’m hopeful the higher turnover systems start improving a little.

Euro Systems

These systems have been very impressive so far this month although they are a bit hit and miss. They had one weekend where they hit everything and then followed it up with a weekend where it hit 1 winner from all the bets at high odds. 58.2pts profit from 132 bets.  Early days for these systems as they only started in the middle of October but it has been a solid start to the season this time but last season started OK if I remember correctly.

Under-Over Systems

The black sheet of the TFA family revert to type. A loss of 2.18pts from 21 bets. Turning into another poor month for these systems.

Overall, a profit of 255.23pts from 823 bets. An overall ROI of 31%.

Given the season the systems have had to date, it feels great to be posting these results but as I alluded to a few times above, depending on which systems people are following, the results for subscribers over this period could be quite different.  Overall, the systems are about break-even I think but given a large profit is showing on the Euro and Draw systems (which aren’t popular systems to follow this season), then many (most?) subscribers will still be in the red at the moment.

In terms of a personal point of view, my TFA portfolio of bets is in profit now and given the losses I had at two different times this season, this feels pretty good to be in the black. Obviously, it will feel better if I can stay in profit this time but at the end of the day, I’m back in the game and I’ve suffered two horrendously bad drawdowns this season that has wiped out nearly 50% of my betting bank each time. The fact both drawdowns came so close together is a killer mentally but I feel more positive now I’m in profit again.

Let’s see what the second half of this month brings. Twice this season I’ve got break-even and twice the systems have hit a terrible drawdown almost immediately. Let’s hope we go upwards instead of downwards this weekend. 

Thursday, 7 November 2013

Cassini TFA System

I mentioned this on the last post in passing but one of the things I did this Summer was decide to enter the tipster league that Cassini runs. Although it was meant to be a bit of fun, I sort of expected that whatever system I built for the league, I would walk the league over the season fairly easily. This was based on the fact that any high turnover system I’d built from my ratings over the last 3 seasons would have at least beaten the winner of the league last season pretty easily. Hence, all I had to do was repeat the performance of the last 3 seasons (see last post!).

Of course, I knew Cassini was going to use Pinnacle’s closing line for the odds recording and given the TFA following and the number of subscribers using Pinnacle to place bets on match days, I knew any TFA system in the league would not be as potent as my other higher turnover systems but even so, I still didn’t think I could create a system that produced an ROI of lower than 3% at Pinnacle’s odds.  I imagined 600 bets this season, a minimum return of 18pts and an average return of 30pts a season.

Of course, none of this meant I would win the league but I was thinking that if any person beat 18pts over the season, they probably deserved to win the league as very few would have as much turnover as me and therefore, they had to outdo my 3% ROI over the season which as Cassini’s league showed last season, wasn’t easy to do.

The graph below shows the P&L so far for the Cassini TFA system (I do come up with the most original system names at times!).

I should state that the results in the graph are based on my advised odds which are taken on a Thursday evening which is a general price in the market. Beatable by anyone with a number of bookmaker accounts, less beatable for anyone who only has a Pinnacle or Betfair account. So far this season, I am running at 101% of my own quoted odds, so if I can beat my odds with limited accounts these days (bets placed either on a Thursday evening within an hour of the email going out or on a Saturday morning), then people should be able to get very close to my odds.

The results currently show a loss of 6.6pts this season from 120 bets. So, we are exactly 20% of the way through the season for this system. As a minimum, I would have expected a return of 3.6pts and the target return would have been 6pts. Hence, I’m 12.6pts behind where I hoped to be.

The official returns in Cassini’s league are a loss of 8.17pts. Interestingly, the gap only appeared at the weekend past as until then, we’d been very close but I hit a number of big priced winners at the weekend that had shortened significantly with Pinnacle in the lead up to kick-off which caused a big discrepancy between Pinnacle and the other bookmakers at kick-off.

Taking Cassini’s total then, I’m 14pts behind where I hoped to be after 120 bets. Sounds a lot but when you look at the number of draws this system has hit this season (32 draws in 120 bets – 26.6%) with an average win price of 3.20 for my selections, then you can see that all I’m missing is a few draws turning into wins (4 games?) and I’d be bang on target for where I hoped to be at this stage of the season.

1 team lost a 3 goal lead, 3 teams lost 2 goal leads and a small number lost 1 goal leads. Hence, I can’t see my bets doing this again in the next 480 games too often and therefore, still hopeful I’ll get close to where I want to be this season with this system.  Looking at the entries in the league this season, I expect the quality is the best it’s ever been and therefore, I’m maybe going to need to achieve a profit of 30pts I suspect to win the league.  Not impossible but I can do with a good run for the next 120 bets! 

I'll try to provide updates of this system as the season progresses although if you want to see how it's doing in the league, Cassini's blog is the place to look. 

2013/14 Results v Live Results

I think one thing I’ve struggled with a little this season is the publicity the systems have generated in the social media space. It’s always been great to read about how others are doing following the systems and many high profile bloggers follow TFA in their portfolio of systems and for the last few seasons, it’s been great reading about how much money they’ve been winning and how great TFA has been performing.

During the last few seasons, there have been short-term spells where the results have been awful and reading about some of the losses others have suffered haven’t been great at times but in the main, all of  the publicity around the systems has been very positive. The Secret Betting Club do a great job in ranking reputable tipster services and TFA has sat in their Hall of Fame for a while and regularly tops the tipster leagues they produce and before this season, I don’t think there was a better performing football tipster over the last 3 seasons.

Of course, two months in, the systems are battered and bruised, some people have lost small fortunes and TFA’s reputation built up over the past 3 seasons is in tatters. Before this season, I’ve proofed 21,252 system bets and produced a profit of 1,547pts at an ROI of 7.3%. This includes euro bets which were loss making last season when the systems were trialled but I think it’s best if we just look at all bets for this post. For the record, the UK bets before this season produced a 9.1% return from 18,372 bets.

Over the first two months this season, the systems have lost 230pts from 2,615 bets. Some of the criticism in emails in particular (less so on blogs) has been around whether or not the edge is gone and whether or not the systems have fallen off a cliff and will they ever recover. I touched on this before on a blog post but it’s difficult to define what the short-term is in this game. In many ways, a season worth of bets can be short-term and it’s not been unknown for a tipster to have a losing season and bounce back. I know a few very high profile SBC monitored footie tipsters have had a losing season or a break-even season and bounced back and therefore, I’m not sure some of the criticism hurled my way has been fair.

I exchange lots of emails with subscribers when time allows and I think the conclusion I’ve come to is that my issue this season is all down to one fact….my success in the last 3 seasons. If I hadn’t been as successful in the last 3 seasons, people’s expectations wouldn’t have been quite so high, betting banks wouldn’t have been quite so tight and overall, I expect we’d be taking this season’s results in our stride.

Of course, as I’m happy to admit, part of this is my fault. I’m not shy in lacking confidence when it comes to the systems and therefore, I haven’t been playing down the returns over the first 3 seasons too much. I’ve written about this on the blog before but I’m like marmite. Some people love my confidence when it comes to football betting whereas many others hate it. I’d go as far to say that many people have been waiting for TFA to fail and have probably been quite enjoying the troubles this season from afar.

As some blog readers will know, I took the plunge to enter Cassini’s tipster league for a bit of fun this season (I don’t need to advertise these systems given the membership was closed and I’ve no shortage of people wanting to follow the systems!) and as you will know, it caused a little bit of a stir which was a good bit of banter and a bit of fun. I’m sure people who aren’t familiar with TFA look at the returns of the system in Cassini’s league at the moment and must be thinking to themselves, if he’s the best football tipster over the last 3 seasons, I think I’ll become his bookie! :)

Anyway, the point of this post was that I think we need to keep the results in some sort of context of the last 29 months of live results. Yes, it’s been a rubbish start to the season but it’s still early days. I’m maybe not as confident as I was two months ago but every time I look at the updated live system results, I can’t help but feel things will turn around sooner rather than later.

Here’s the results of all systems this season and all live results since inception. They look nothing alike! 

Wednesday, 6 November 2013

October 2013 Monthly Review

I’m going to try to keep this monthly review a little shorter this month for the simple fact that I’m fed up writing about the poor performance of the systems this season and no matter how much I write, it won’t change anything. I’ll pass comment on the systems and the ratings but you will see the issues for yourself. 

Clearly, the filtering of the systems hasn’t worked at all this season and ultimately, it is starting to look like filtering the ratings is maybe not the best idea at all. Of course, we have two months of poor results against a couple of seasons of really good results, so we need to keep the losses in perspective but for whatever reason, the bets that the systems perceive to be the better bets are letting me down badly. So bad that in some circumstances, it’s hard to believe just how bad the results are. 

Overall, as you will see, it is another losing month but the month was a strange month. The systems managed to get themselves into a really good position midway through the month but then lost all of the gains in the second half of the month. I guess the results in the first half of the month were the first indication that the systems could create profits this season but clearly, law of averages dictate that you’ll win some of the time, so maybe it’s not that surprising they had a couple of decent sets of fixtures before going back to losing again.

I suspect that for many reading this, the month probably feels worse than it actually was but as always, winning money and then losing money always tends to feel worse than losing money and then winning a proportion of it back.

The weekend past was a really good weekend which means November has started well but I’ve been here in October, so we’ll need to see what happens next. Based on the results so far this season, probably means the next downturn is just around the corner again but hoping the systems can buck the trend sooner, rather than later!

Here’s the review of each set of systems and ratings.

Est Systems

Algorithm one made a profit of 7.9pts from 91 bets at an ROI of 8.7%. This is better than the long-term average for this rating algorithm and therefore, I’d have to say it has had a good month. Breaking it down by value band doesn’t really make for a very clear picture with the results being quite random between each band due to the low volume sizes. I guess the good news is the highest value band hit 2 from 4 correct this month for a really nice profit but the lowest band also made a profit. I suspect depending on where you cut the value off, it could have been a better or worse month than just following all the bets thrown up.

If we break it down by Homes and Aways, we see a different picture to last month with Aways doing better than Homes. Aways made 12.2pts at an ROI of 21.7% whereas Homes lost 4.3pts. Again, looking at the value bands, nothing really stands out due to the small sample size. I suspect we’ll struggle to gain much insight from the value bands until we start looking at the season results to date. 

Algorithm two made a profit of 7.4pts from 74 bets (10% ROI obviously!). Even more biased towards Aways here with a profit of 16.3pts at an ROI of 29.7% whereas Homes lost 8.9pts from 19 bets. The value bands are more interesting on algorithm two though with the two lowest bands creating a substantial loss and the higher bands doing better. That’s the sort of pattern we’re looking for here as ultimately, we want the day to come when we can use the systems and value ratings in synch and hopefully increase our profits in the long-term.

Overall, a much better month for both algorithms and they looked much more like the rating algorithms I remember from last season. However, the issue this month lies with the filtering of the systems and I very much doubt the filtering has ever been as bad as this in a single month. Basically, the systems took two profitable rating algorithms and turned the month into an absolute mess.

Here’s the results by system.

It’s impossible to not be taken aback here by the poor performance of systems 7,8 and 22. It’s hard to explain and ultimately, the filtering of the systems this month has really worked against the ratings.

To see system 7 hit 4 winners from 21 bets, system 8 hit 1 winner from 9 and system 22 hit 3 winners from 16 is unbelievable. At the very least, I would expect these systems to be able to filter the bets and at least achieve the same returns (even if they have no edge, if you are picking from a winning sample, you have a chance!) but they’ve done a great job of filtering out the best bets and keeping the worst bets.

The combined systems therefore didn’t have a chance and quite simply, when you cross refer losing systems, I’ve noticed it tends to make things worse at times than the systems you are using and this happened this month. System 6-21 at least gets pass marks as it didn’t make things too much worse than 6 or 21 but the other systems 6-22 to 8-22 were shockingly bad.

No winners from 9 on system 7-22 and no winners from 5 on 8-22 sums up the month as historically, these have the highest ROI’s of all my systems since they went live. When the highest performing systems lose badly like this, anyone following has to take a hit.
Overall then, systems 6-22 to 8-22 lost 33.9pts from 60 bets. Given the fact system 6-21 had a 7.1% profit, it is a scary month for these systems. If they lose like this when the ratings have an OK month, what will happen if the ratings have a poor month?

I’m trying to not panic too much but quite simply, this is about as bad as you can mathematically do I suspect. It is pushing the boundaries to take a set of bets with a 7.1% profit and turn them into a loss of over 50%!

The only explanation is that the systems have been a little unlucky and if you look at the historical results, the filtering does appear to work OK and I’ve seen nothing to suggest that we should see these results as anything but a shock. The issue with filtering of bets is always variance and we have had some massive variance this month and it does beg the question why we bother filtering the bets in the first place. I know people don’t like placing lots of bets and they look for an easier way to make money but maybe I’m starting to think that leads to some massive swings in profitability and therefore, is it really worth looking for shortcuts?

Overall, the systems in total lost 33.5pts from 340 bets. That makes it two monthly losses in a row to start the season and going into the season, these systems have suffered 6 losing months in 27 months (3 seasons). Hence, an average of 2 losing months a season for the last 3 seasons since the systems went live. On one hand, it leads me to think they’ll go on a run like we’ve seen before and hit many months of profit in a row or we now face up to the fact that whatever edge these systems had over the last 3 seasons has vanished over the Summer.

I think it’s difficult to draw conclusions based on 2 months of data where it hasn’t been the easiest of trading conditions but if I had a RAG status for these systems of mines, the Est Systems are now flashing RED which is an unfortunate place to be given the fact they have been so good to me and many of us over the last 3 seasons but it’s an honest assessment of how I feel at the moment. The next month or so is key for these systems.

New Systems

Algorithm 3 was the only algorithm to make a profit last month and as I said at the time, to make a profit when the trading conditions were so difficult and when every other algorithm playing in the same leagues made a loss shows the strength of the algorithm. When trading conditions are favourable, any algorithm can make a profit but very few could last month. Well, with slightly better trading conditions this month, algorithm 3 made another decent profit again. 9.6pts profit from 100 bets.

Similar to the first two algorithms, Aways did much better with a profit of 16.5pts from 70 bets. Homes made a loss of 6.9pts from 30 bets. The value bands don’t appear to show up anything due to the low volume of bets again.

Algorithm 4 was the only algorithm to make a loss this month. A loss of 2.8pts from 114 bets. I personally rank algorithm 4 as my lowest algorithm and I’m never too surprised when it had a losing month. Homes were the issue again with a loss of 5.5pts from 40 bets. Aways made a profit of 2.7pts from 74 bets. The higher value Aways bets outperformed the lower value Away bets and that’s something that’s interesting I guess. Again, a very small sample but I think long-term, it gives me a little more hope that we can use the systems and the value ratings together to increase profits.

In terms of the systems then, a profit of 13pts from 558 bets. Not the best month by any means but considering the loss on the Est Systems, a profit is a profit!

It’s a very similar story to the Est Systems though when it comes to the filtering of the bets. System 31 to system 32 was OK and it actually increased the ROI.  The issue lies in moving from system 32 to system 33. System 32 made a profit of 13.6% and yet, system 33 selected 13 bets and only hit 1 winner. A loss of 9.4pts.

When you start to add this together with what we learnt from the Est Systems, you can see the issues we are having this season. As we move down the systems to the ‘so called’ higher ROI systems, the performance is dropping off a cliff. System 33 has had a nightmare month as have systems 7,8 and 22. Traditionally, there will be many bets that appear on all these systems together and anyone following combined systems including these 4 systems have to be making fairly substantial losses.

If we look at the combined systems here, everything is fine down to 33-41 and 33-42. It goes wrong badly here though with 1 winner from 13 on 33-41 and 1 winner from 10 on 33-42. 

On one hand, I think it’s just variance and 10 bets or 13 bets is nothing really but on the other hand, I think wow, that’s really, really bad! I saw a comment on another blog recently that said my results are so bad, it has to be bad luck or variance as no system could be that bad at picking winners and I sort of think that’s maybe true! If I was selecting lays, to hit 1 winner from 13 at football bets would be the stuff dreams are made of, so for it to happen on a system which has an ROI of 15%+ is difficult to do I suspect. 

Overall, it’s another tough month for the New Systems but the base ratings aren’t doing badly at all. System 31 (algorithm 3) has now had two winning months in a row in the toughest run my ratings have ever had. If that’s not promising, I’m not sure what is! Wait till we hit a good spell and see what system 31 can do. :)  I’ll take the small profit and move on. 

Misc Systems

At a high level, an OK month for this set of systems and a profit of 12.9pts from 318 bets at an ROI of 4%. However, when you look at the results in a little more detail, things were not quite as good as the trusty home bets had a nightmare this month whereas the aways did really well. A complete reversal of last month. 

Dealing with the systems first though, an OK month for 6-32 with an ROI of 7.2% from 39 bets. System 32 had a decent month as did system 6, so no real surprise this system did OK. 

The same comment applies to 21-31 and 6-21-31 in the sense the rating algorithms all had profitable months and therefore, betting on the teams that appeared on each algorithm wasn’t a bad strategy. 21-31 did best and achieved a profit of 14.2% from 72bets. 6-21-31 missed out 3 bets and only achieved a profit of 12.6% from 69 bets. I can see from the strike rate that one of the 3 bets missed out was a winner! 

Overall, a decent month for these 3 systems and no complaints. My compliant probably lies with systems TOX, STOY and STOZ. Losses on all 3 systems and after a poor first month of the season, they have followed it up with another poor month.

STOZ was the best performing of the three with a loss of only 0.9pts but TOX and STOY lost 3pts and 5pts respectively. Not large losses and nothing to be overly concerned about but it’s disappointing that these systems performed worse than the other 3 Misc Systems. Historically, they have performed much better than these systems, so it’s disappointing that didn’t happen this month.

I expect STOZ is a very popular system after the results last season and therefore, to see is struggling this season after two months is disappointing but hopefully it’s a short-term blip.

The system does have the ability to win large amounts in short spaces of time which makes it so powerful but with the increased return comes increased risk and it can be quite volatile compared to other systems. Hopefully it settles down and gets back to something like the long-term norm.

As I mentioned in the introduction, the split by Homes and Aways is interesting as you can see here:

Traditionally, the Home bets on these systems have been the strongest Home bets my systems can find (especially STOY and STOZ) but for whatever reason, they didn’t win last month. However, the great thing about looking at data at a granular level is you can try to understand why and in this case, we can see the clear issue the Homes had last month. When you can make a profit backing AH0.5 on home bets, there must be a very high draw %. 

Looking quickly, the 9 bets on TOX and STOY yielded 6 draws. When 66% of the games are draws, it’s difficult to make a profit!

Of course, with the low average odds, it’s not an excuse but so often, there is a thin line between a draw and a win. If I look quickly, I can see 4 of the 6 lost leads. Hence, in a more normal month, I wouldn’t expect 4 of the 6 best Home bets to lose a lead and draw and therefore, it is just bad luck I suspect what has happened this month with the Homes.

Interestingly, if you look at the AH returns for the Aways, you see the complete opposite trend. AH0.5 created a substantial loss for Away bets and therefore, if the bets weren’t winning, they were losing!

I’ve talked about this before on the blog but if you only look at the outright results of systems, it can be misleading. I would go as far to say that the Home bets were probably very unlucky this month and the Away bets were very lucky and therefore, the systems did better than they deserved to this month. However, given many people stake more on Homes than Aways, we would have preferred the Homes to carry more luck I suspect. 

Overall, a profitable month but hoping to see these systems improve as the season goes on and in particular, hoping that STOZ can reach the heights of last season!

Draw Systems

A month can be a long time betting and I’ve gone from having very little confidence in these systems to really embracing them after the last few weeks. I think my issue in month one was that I tend to look at how much value I think I’m getting from looking at closing odds lines compared to what I’m backing at and in the main, I couldn’t see much value at the odds I was playing at.

However, the other way to look at value is simply at the results and as I said in the first monthly review for these systems, they were a little unlucky and if a couple of late goals had not happened, things would have looked much better. Well, after a profit this month, I’ve changed my tune a little but not simply due to the fact a profit was made. The games thrown up seemed to be the sort of games where backing the draw made sense and in most cases, many of the games were very close even though they may not have finished a draw. Many of the games were low scoring and we also hit a number of 0-0 draws this month (the perfect draw?) and adding all that together, I’m feeling much better about these systems. 

The last thing that encourages me is simply the fact that when I’m placing the bets, there is basically no issue with liquidity or odds movement in the main. All of my bets are with Pinnacle and if I look at the odds at kick-off, they’re pretty close to the odds I’m backing at, so considering I’m looking at this game long-term and ways to make money long-term, being able to find a profitable edge at Pinnacle is a big advantage.

Saying all of the above, we are two months in and the systems have barely had any live bets, so I’m not getting carried away but I can at least see me continuing with a couple of these systems in my portfolio. Last month, I was close to writing these systems off after month one.  Here’s the results from last month: 

In total, a profit of 64.1pts from 210 bets this month. The strike rate was 37.6% and the average odds are 3.52, so you can see why the systems had such a good month.

As I said last month, I think we have an issue with these systems in terms of the combined systems not having enough bets once you go past D2-D7 and the same is true this month. 3 or 4 bets a month is no good for any system and therefore, you have to think D3-D6 and D3-D7 are a waste of time. However, the turnover is decent enough on the other combined systems and the issue is actually D3 which only had 4 bets this month. I expect D3 will have no future going forward and we’ll only have D1,D2,D6 and D7 and the 4 combined systems.
D2-D7 is a system I follow (equivalent to 7-22 which many of you will be aware of) and to see the system hit 7 winners in 11 bets this month is fantastic. Small sample and it had a losing month in month one but it’s up and running now.

Long-term, I still hope that the Draw systems have a part to play in the TFA portfolio of systems but we’ll see what the next 7 months hold. 

Euro Systems 

The first month for the Euro systems this season and a small profit was achieved. I’ve deliberately played down these systems after seeing how difficult it was in these Euro leagues last season to find an edge and therefore, my exposure to these systems this season is very low. I probably put too much faith in the systems last season in my portfolio and I got lucky in a way with the systems I followed doing OK but only playing a small number of bets this season to see how the systems do.

It’s actually really interesting that the results for month one mirror the results for last season. The ratings algorithms both made a loss (E1 and E6) but the filtering worked well and the combined systems all made a profit this month.  Thinking back to last season, the results from the base ratings were very poor but the combined systems did OK and the higher combined systems had an OK first season. It would be interesting if the higher combined systems could again do well this season as it would mean that we have two seasons of OK results and that would give me hope for the future.

Overall, a profit of 8.9pts from 134 bets. An ROI of 6.6%. The combined systems made a profit of 13.8pts from 52 bets which isn’t a bad start to the season.

I think my thoughts on these Euro systems are similar to the Draw systems. I would love to create myself an edge in these leagues as quite simply, there are no issues with liquidity and that’s a massive advantage in a game where I know my time is limited with many of my current bookmaker accounts and more and more of my betting is going through Pinnacle. 

Early days and we’ll see what the next 7 months bring for these systems.

Under-Over Systems

A poor month for these systems with only 17 correct from 44 games. A loss of 8.7pts.

Not really sure why I spend my time doing these systems to be honest. If they don’t make a return this season, they won’t be here next season! Too much time spent producing bets and recording results on these systems that I don’t think anyone should follow.


A tough month again although if you look at all systems combined, it’s not anywhere near the disaster of a month we had in September. In totality, a profit of 56.7pts was achieved across 1,604 bets. The frustrating thing this month has been the performance of the Homes and whereas the Aways caused the issue in September, in many ways, the Homes have been the issue this month although the Aways have still not been great.

I said last month that October was a big month for the service but November is massive. Never had a losing November in the last 7 seasons of results (both live and backtested) and most systems have never had 3 losing months in a row. Put these two facts together and if November doesn’t improve, we have to seriously start getting worried about some of these systems.

I’ll do a post next which summarises the results to date this season to the end of October and the results since the systems went live. Will help provide a little bit of context about how bad these results are this season! 

Saturday, 2 November 2013

Results from last week of October

A quick update here as it’s that time again for the end of the month review and I’ll keep any detailed thoughts for then. Not been another great week for the service and I don’t ever recall the service getting discussed so much in the blogosphere or on Twitter! I guess it’s part and parcel of the game nowadays when you are so successful and then things take a turn for the worse unexpectedly but I’m hoping the systems return to something like the norm soon. If one more person quotes to me that these are meant to be ‘the No 1 football betting systems’, I think I’ll scream. :)

I guess what this season is showing me is that the past is no indication of the future. Maybe I need to make this clearer when people join the service as at the end of the day, I can’t explain why the systems are producing the results they are producing at the moment. I said this in my email on Thursday but it’s either the biggest variance I’ve suffered since I started betting on football or the substantial edge the systems had over the last few seasons (and earlier this calendar year) has vanished. I think it's variance but we'll see what the next few months hold. 

Here’s the latest results update.

Est Systems

Only 12 winners from 50 bets and a 13pt loss. The ratings did OK, the systems filtered out all the winning bets (for the umpteenth time this season!)

New Systems

23 winners from 72 bets with a loss of 6.15pts.

Misc Systems

A profit here amazingly. 14 winners from 40 bets and a profit of 5.32pts.

Draw Systems

A small loss of 2.40pts from 37 bets. Treading water at the moment these systems but that is enough to make them head and shoulders above the rest of the systems!

Euro Systems

 6pts profit from 106 bets. Only positive is the higher combined systems are doing OK at the moment, ratings, not so good.

Under-Over Systems

A profit of 0.2pts from 10 bets. 5 from 10 correct.

Overall, a poor end to a tough month and the service is really treading water at the moment. A loss of 10pts from 315 bets.

Next post should be the monthly review.  May be a couple of days before it appears on here. Lots to look at again.