Monday, 29 October 2012

Results Update

Going into the weekend, I was pretty downbeat if I’m honest. It sort of followed on from the last blog post and due to the fact I was behind with my results updating, I was sort of resigned to the fact the systems were having a nightmare month and it would be losses across the board for October.

There are two main reasons for my mood I suspect. Firstly, whether I want to admit it or now, I tend to concentrate solely on a few key systems and when these systems are struggling, I tend to think the ratings are struggling. This is a little unfair as the whole point of having so many bets and systems is to try to smooth the P&L where possible but I can’t help feel that system 7-22 is what a good number of people judge my service on. Hence, no matter the P&L for the month, when 7-22 is struggling, my systems are seen to be struggling.

The second reason is simply the fact that I honestly didn’t know the P&L for the month. As you will have noticed before on the blog, I take great pride in always knowing how the systems are doing and therefore, going into the weekend past, I had absolutely no idea of the P&L on any system. I knew the recent results were shocking, the early part of the month didn’t feel like it was great either and therefore, my confidence wasn’t exactly flying high going into the weekend.

However, as I said on the last blog post, the biggest advantage of following automated systems these days is the fact that the mental strain feels a lot less. I can’t speak for everyone following the systems this season as not everyone will share the same thoughts I have but basically, if I was picking which teams had to appear on each system, after the month I’ve had punting, let’s just say I don’t think I could have been confident I’d have called it correctly! Thankfully, there is no human element involved here and the systems just continue churning out the same bets as they always do, regardless of recent results.

So, how did the weekend pan out?

Well, if I judge it solely on system 7-22 (as tends to be the way I look at things), it was another tough weekend. 1 winner from 5 again and ultimately, system 7-22 is on its biggest drawdown for 12 months. Not a disaster yet by any means but not exactly what I hoped to see from my flagship system in the second month of the season! I’m sure it will return to normality soon. :)

Looking at the results more subjectively, it was a much, much better weekend. The established systems, the new systems, the misc systems, the Under/Over systems and the Euro systems all made profits this weekend. Given the run they were all on going into this weekend, it’s another great example of why you just need to go with the flow at this game and not get too bogged down by the most recent results.

I was particularly pleased to see the Euro systems have their first winning weekend this season. These systems are the baby systems of the family and they haven’t had the best of luck in their first live month with draws (been far too many of them!) but it’s nice to see them ending the month strongly. I was a little premature in saying they’ll start with a losing month and depending on the results in Italy this midweek, these systems could actually start their first month with a profit which would be some going, given the start they had this month!

Overall, a much better weekend and thankfully, the month looks a lot brighter than it did before the weekend. I’ve not had time to analyse the monthly results yet but things aren’t all doom and gloom as I thought a few days ago!

Right, this is an update of two weekends ago, the midweek and then the weekend past.

Established Systems

The results two weekends ago were nowhere near as bad as it was on the other systems. An overall loss of 2.78pts from 52 games was a great performance (compared to other systems) but the wheels fell off in midweek unfortunately.  A 41.55pts loss from 72 bets which was a shocking performance. The systems redeemed themselves a little at the weekend though with a profit of 48.46pts from 109 bets.

Overall, 4.13pts profit from 233 bets. A return of 1.77% may not seem like much but when you think how bad it was before the weekend past, I’ll take it with both hands! If someone had offered me this return on Thursday night, I’d have snapped their hand off.

New Systems

A terrible couple of weeks for these systems although given the first month and a half they had this season, I’m not overly surprised they have hit a tough spell. If they continued like the way they started the season, I’d have rewritten the record books for system results!

The results from two weekends ago were terrible and they didn’t get any better last midweek either.  35.73pts lost from 109 bets at the weekend and then another 41.79pts lost from 86 bets during the week. Things were much better at the weekend past which has helped get things back on track a little. A profit of 44.36pts from 116 bets.

Overall, a loss of 33.16pts from 311 bets.  As I said above, not a great update for these systems but then again, I’m not sure I expected them to continue like they started the season!

Misc Systems

These systems follow the same pattern of the new systems to a great extent.  They dug themselves in a massive hole and managed to recoup much of the losses at the weekend past.

25.50pts lost from 36 bets two weekends ago and 30.50pts lost from 51 bets during the week. Thankfully, a profit of 46.50pts from 49 bets at the weekend has helped reduce the damage considerably this month.

Overall, a loss of 9.50pts from 136 bets. Again, not a great update for these systems but it looked like being much worse before the weekend!

Under/Over Systems

I still dislike these systems. I dislike the market they play in, I dislike the odds overrounds, I dislike the methodology I’m using to derive the bets and most of all, I dislike the results! I’m not sure I’ve ever hid my contempt for these systems but the more I see the bets and results, the more rubbish I think they are!

Anyway, my thoughts aside, they have actually made a small profit since the last update. A profit of 1.18pts from 22 bets. 

Euro Systems

I think the one thing that I should highlight here would be the AH returns. Clearly, when the systems are hitting a fair number of draws, the AH returns will come to the fore and you can definitely see that trend with these European systems.

Two weekends ago, a loss of 13.3pts from 52 bets. However, a much better weekend past and a profit of 53.9pts from 67 games.

Overall, a profit of 40.6pts from 119 bets. The AH returns aren’t much different though and using AH0 for example generated 41pts. Very rare to see AH0 returns so close to outright returns over a large sample of bets as this but it’s a clear indication that the systems are hitting a bit too many draws at the moment!

In summary then, a clear pattern across the piece where two weekends ago was terrible, the last midweek was even worse but the weekend past was a great weekend and brought things back into line with the long-term average!

I make it a profit of 3.25pts from 821 bets since the last update. I’ve said this lots of times before on the blog about the systems but the reason the systems are so good has little to do with their ability to generate profits from winning runs! That’s the easy part of this game. When things are going well, making profits is easy. However, when things aren’t going well, when the ratings are struggling, when things aren’t going your way with late goals, red cards and so on, managing to keep hold of your profits is much more difficult. I’d be lying if I said the ratings and systems have had a good time of it since the last update but at the end of the day, a two week spell isn’t a long time in the course of a season. The fact they have generated a tiny profit in this time is amazing to me, especially when you consider the results before the weekend past!

Yes, I’m sure people are reading this and thinking, jeez, that’s a lot of work for not a lot of return but clearly, no one is following all these systems. Within the subset of systems, there are some systems that have struggled badly over the last two weeks (none more so than system 7-22!) but likewise, there are some systems that have generated decent profits over the same spell. Hence, we’ll see more when we analyse the monthly results later on this week.

I suspect I may well split the monthly report into different blog posts this week. There is nothing to stop me from doing the UK systems now and the Euro systems after the midweek Italian games. I’ll be back in a day or so with the first monthly report.  Have the established systems managed to keep their run going for monthly profits? We’ll see…….

Wednesday, 24 October 2012

Red Cards + Draws + Defeats = P&L Loss

As is likely to happen more and more this season, I’m struggling to get the time to update the blog for the results. All my time is being eaten up updating the ratings for all the various leagues in preparation for the next set of bets, so trying to update my results sheets is difficult. I’ll do it as regularly as I can but I’m now missing an update from the weekend and the midweek past.

As the title is hinting at (not very subtle admittedly), it has been a terrible last couple of fixtures.  I think that’s the issue with having so many systems on the go at once. When things go bad, they really go tits up!

The weekend was interesting in the sense the new systems were all over a number of teams, the established systems had fewer bets than I would normally expect and the Euro systems were all over two teams.

It ended up in utter carnage with a crazy number of red cards for my selections. I did a quick check and 25% of the bets ended up with 10 men! That doesn’t help at any time but on a bad weekend, it just makes things worse.

The established systems did a great job in limiting the damage by just not having a lot of bets but the New systems lost a good chunk of the profits they made last month and the Euro systems had a nightmare. I call it a nightmare but it was all down to two games and both games were draws. I think that means the first 12 bets on Systems E2-E6 to E3-E7 in total have all finished draws. Not exactly the dream start I was hoping for with the Euro systems!

Anyway, after that disaster, I was updating the ratings on Sunday night and I had a quick check of the odds available and then took a massive gulp.  My established systems were going to be all over a number of teams as my ratings appeared a good bit out of sync with the bookmaker odds. The new systems were similar and quite quickly, I could tell it was going to be a busy midweek.

So, after the disaster the new systems had at the weekend, I wasn’t exactly licking my lips at the fact they were in agreement with the established systems but surely, a good night was due?

Errr…no. It was actually much, much worse than the weekend as the established systems got caught up in the carnage this time.  I’ve not actually got the P&L from the midweek (I really am behind as I was away down to London early today) but I can tell you it was nearly a wipeout on a busy midweek fixture card which isn’t going to be good news for the P&L.

What does all this mean?  Well, in summary, my established systems are going to have their first losing month since Sep-11, my new systems are going to give back a massive chunk (if not all) of the amazing profits they made last month and the new Euro systems are going to kick off the season with a really bad losing month in their first month live which doesn’t exactly fill me with a great deal of confidence for the rest of the season.

It’s amazing how things can change at this game. 3 weeks ago, the systems had started the season well, everything was rosy and it looked like this game was easy and we were licking our lips for the Euro systems to start so we could beat the bookmakers up more. Making money from the bookmakers was like taking sweeties off a kid. 

I expect a few new subscribers are thinking to themselves, WTF is going on here, this isn’t meant to happen but that’s the great thing about having a couple of seasons behind us now with the systems. I’ve seen it all before and at the end of the day, the systems don’t know they are costing me and a good number of followers a small fortune at the moment, so they’ll just continue punting out the same bets they’ve been punting out for the last couple of seasons.

I guess you could say I was due a bad run as there is only so long you can outrun variance and my systems were giving it a good go with 9 betting months of straight profits but all good things must come to an end.

We’ll see what this weekend brings and I’ll try to update the results over the weekend at some point to get things back up to speed on the blog.

Tuesday, 16 October 2012

Disappointing weekend

A disappointing weekend for the systems overall I think but there were no disasters. I was surprised updating the results to see the New Systems managed to scrape a small profit at the weekend. They continue to perform well above expectations if I’m honest.

It’s still very early days and after this weekend, the New Systems have only had 388 bets so far this season which is next to nothing in terms of live bets. We’ll see what the next few months bring for these systems as it’s quite exciting how they have started the season but they wouldn’t be the first systems to start well and then do rubbish!

Here’s the rundown of results from the weekend:

Established Systems – Only 12 winners from 41 bets, so it would have been difficult to create a profit here.  A loss of 9.06pts.

New Systems – 17 winners from 53 bets resulted in a little profit. 10.79pts profit from 53 bets.

Misc Systems – Only 6 winners from 29 bets which resulted in a loss of 3.02pts. A nice winner on a few systems here at 4.33.

Under/Over Systems – 3 from 5 correct for a profit of 1.41pts. Stops the rot slightly but a long way to go before I have any faith in these systems this season!

Overall, a profit of 0.12pts from 128 bets this weekend. Not the best weekend by any means but then again, for a disappointing weekend, it’s not bad. I expect we’ll have much worse weekends this season!

Be back next week with an update of how this weekend goes.

Thursday, 11 October 2012

Steady start to October

This update covers the midweek games from last week and the weekend games. There were no midweek bets this week.

The last midweek was a decent midweek for the systems but the weekend past wasn’t great. The Euro systems finally had their first bets and as always happens when you look forward to something new starting, they decided to start off appallingly! 31 bets, no winners and not the best start to the live proofing of these systems.  Then again, I’m expecting around 3,000 bets this season from these Euro systems, so let’s hope the next 99% perform better than the first 1%!

Here’s the usual rundown below for all systems.

Established Systems – 17.58pts profit from 136 bets. Interestingly, the AH returns were better, so we have definitely seen more draws than we’d like with these bets. A decent start to the month.

New Systems – 32.28pts profit from 198 bets. A very solid opening to the month after an amazing month last month for these systems. I’m sure these systems are due a slight correction soon!

Misc Systems – 18.4pts profit from 84 bets. A solid start for these systems also.

Euro Systems – 32pts lost from 32 bets. Not much you can say about this. Must do better!

Over/Under Systems – 5.69pts lost from 14 bets. These systems continue to struggle and my pre-season belief about these systems not being up to much appears to be true. Struggled last season and even though I’ve made some tweaks this season, the systems still look useless. 

Overall then, 464 bets which have generated a profit of 30.57pts. Not a bad return and a decent start to the month for the systems.

Wednesday, 3 October 2012

September 2012 Monthly Review

Unlike the last two seasons, I’ll just be posting the monthly reviews on the main section of the blog. I could add another tab and copy them across at some stage but for the moment, I’ll just keep them on the main blog.

So, this is the review for September 2012 which is the first month of the 2012/13 season. 

Before the start of the season, I had a few discussions with various members around what happened last season in September and the fact that my ratings started the season so badly last season. I had a quick look back at the monthly review for Sep-11 before I started writing this and it really was a horrible month. The established systems lost 86pts from 274 bets which shows how bad it was.

Well, roll on 12 months and things couldn’t be much different. This is AMAZING as I only noticed it tonight but guess how many bets the established systems had this September?  Yes, believe it or not, they had 274 bets!

Last September saw 63 winners from 274 bets and a loss of 86pts. This September saw 115 winners from 274 bets and a profit of 73.2pts.  Amazing to think that September-12 is better by 159.3pts than last September!

Let’s go through each set of systems and see how they have performed this month. Here are the established system results:

It hasn’t been the best start to the season from the first algorithm although it has done a great job in narrowing down the better bets. System 6 has only had 23 winners from 75 and yet, system 7 has filtered this to 11 winners from 17.  This means the games that system 7 has filtered out had only 12 winners from 58 bets!  Pretty good going and another indication of how the filtering approach works with the systems.

The second algorithm has started the season much better and system 21 has managed a profit of 17.6% from 55 bets.  System 22 has again worked well in filtering the bets though with a 57.1% ROI from 15 bets.

Although the single systems are important, the key for most of us following is always the results of the combined systems. As you can see, they have started the season very well.

6-21 has only managed a 12.8% ROI from 51 bets but 6-22 to 8-22 all have ROIs in excess of 50%. In total, the profit for all 6 combined systems is 40.2pts from 104 bets. An ROI of 38.7%. 

Overall, this makes it 9 profitable months in a row for the combined systems. Since inception, a profit of 345.9pts from 2,096 bets. An ROI of 16.5% across over 2,000 bets isn’t a bad performance for a set of football systems!

Here’s the results from the first month of the new systems since they went live this season:

I’m sure there are lots of systems that have started a season well to only go on and end up being disappointing by the time the season ends but boy, has it been some start by these new systems this season.

As most of you know, systems 31-33 were live last season but on their own, they were a little bit lost I think and without a similar set of systems to cross refer with, they were a bit hopeless last season. This season, with 41 and 42 to cross refer them with, I always hoped the new combined systems would do well (even though the backtested results last season were poor!) and so far, I’ve not been disappointed.

A profit of 121.2pts from 388 bets in the first month of the season isn’t a bad start! Cross referring the two sets of new systems appears to be working amazingly well and when you look at 31-42 to 33-42 (the equivalent 5 systems to 6-22 thru to 8-22), the results for the first live month are nothing short of being freaky!

These 5 systems have a combined profit of 69.1pts from 100 bets. Of course, they should be looked at as a set of 6 combined systems, so we only see a profit of 66.8pts from 158 bets. Not bad for a first month is it?

The most interesting thing for me is the fact that algorithm 3 (system 31) and algorithm 4 (system 41) haven’t actually had that great a month. Yes, they have made a profit (7.3% and 2.9%) but to turn that into the returns I’ve just quoted above when filtering the bets is pretty good.

We’ll see what the next 8 months bring but these systems have started as well as I could have dreamed I think!

Here’s the results of the Miscellaneous systems for Sep-12:

This is the second season for these systems after a below par first season. A solid start to the season but nothing as spectacular as the other sets of systems I’m afraid. Overall, a profit of 23pts from 167 bets. It’s actually funny writing this. An ROI of 13.8% for these systems and I’m sounding like it has been a poor start for these systems. I would take this return every month though. ;)

The final set of systems with bets in September were obviously the Under/Over systems:

Although this is the first live season for these two systems, I proofed them on a trial basis last season in the SBC forum. They didn’t really perform that well and so far,  I’ve not seen anything this season to make me think these systems are any good!

The Under system has only hit 2 winners from 13 bets and this has resulted in a loss of 8.9pts. The Over system has hit 7 from 11 correct so far and has a profit of 3.8pts.  Overall, 24 bets and a loss of 5.1pts.  When you think that this is a good month and my ratings have been pretty accurate, it shows how random these results can be at times!

Overall then, we have seen another 853 system bets proofed in September from the TFA systems and a profit generated of 212.3pts. Overall, an ROI of 24.9%.

A decent first month of the season but a long way to go this season. We also need to remember that September was a quiet month with most leagues starting later in the month, so we’ll be looking at more like 1,500-2,000 system bets on average every month I suspect going forward.

I’ll be back with the midweek results when I have some time.