Friday, 27 March 2015

March so far.....

Going to keep this post short and just update the results for March so far. It has been a disaster of a month so far (as bad as I’ve seen) and it’s difficult to find the time to sit down and write some thoughts about everything as I’ve not had the time. I keep wanting to get involved in some Twitter debates over the last few weeks but I can’t even get time to read all the tweets, never mind give a point of view or hold a conversation. Some of the threads moved so quickly but I’ll try to find some time to jot down my thoughts on the blog next week, I've a few days off work. 

As for March so far, not a lot has went right. I’m on course for my 2nd worst ever betting month in terms of the monetary amount lost but in terms of pts lost in my betting portfolio, I’ve already exceeded the worst historical month I’ve had before now.

It’s amazing how quickly things change and from a season high and all time betting high on 17th Jan, I’ve lost over a 5 figure sum which for someone with my stakes, is a helluva drawdown! Like everyone else following the systems, I’m starting to question what I’m doing and I think there has to be a massive doubt about whether or not I’ll continue with the football betting & the service next season. Being honest, continuing with the football betting isn’t that big an issue and this season has probably been my most relaxing in terms of actually following the bets. I have a pretty nice process set up, I’m doing pretty well compared to the advised odds (c.+1.5%) and I’m probably following my betting returns closer than I have ever done. Shame I'm counting up losses more often than not but at least I know what I'm losing! 

My issue is the service but as I’ve discussed before, they do go hand in hand to a degree. The chances of me always having the discipline to do the football ratings without the service isn’t very high and I know for a fact that if I didn’t have the service responsibility, I would have stopped following the football before now as quite simply, I don’t have the time for it. The fact I can manufacture the time required by staying up late and working myself into the ground is down to the service but given the last 6 months or so and how difficult I have found combining the football ratings with my career, I would have definitely stopped following I suspect.

Anyway, it’s easy to sit here off the back of a substantial drawdown and say I’m stopping the service next season but it would be a knee-jerk reaction. I’m going to get through to the end of the season, look at things fresh and then decide whether or not I stop the service. If I continue with the football betting, I’ll need to do the ratings anyway, so I need to see if I can fit a service around this or not. I’ll share more thoughts over the next few months as I need to get writing again. When I’m losing money like this, the blog is a great help to get some thoughts down and even if no one replies or reads them, I always feel better for getting it off my chest I find!

Here’s the results for March so far:

Est Systems

A loss of 44pts from 505 bets. Both algorithms losing badly, the filtering making things worse and the combined systems losing too as a result.

New Systems

A loss of 91.17pts from 571 bets. System 31 has had a shocker of a month (down 23pts) and system 41 has had the usual month (a losing one!). Overall, a horrible loss so far with the weekend to come!

Misc Systems

A loss of 44.68pts from 338 bets. In line with system 31, STOZ has had a disaster of a month and a loss of 16pts. All 6 systems are losing this month, so no real comfort to take from these systems at the moment either.

Draw Systems

A loss of 110.43pts from 256 bets. To say these Draw systems have dropped off a cliff is not an understatement and the last 600 system bets or so have been terrible!

Euro Systems

A loss of 9.4pts from 333 bets. Not too bad considering the losses on the other systems this month! :)

Euro Draw Systems

A loss of 88.5pts from 353 bets. Same old story with these systems. Might well be the best lay the draw systems I’ve ever seen! Not much good if backing the draw though.

Overall, a loss of 388.18pts so far this month from 2,356 bets. If tomorrow goes badly, could smash the record for the worst month ever by a long way!

I’ve no doubt given the numerous discussions on Twitter recently, the conclusion for this post should really be that the systems are regressing to the mean loss of 2% and I’ve somehow fluked the first 4.6 seasons of profits but not sure I buy into this myself. I’ve no doubt people get lucky for periods of time but I don’t believe it can stem from Sep-10 to Feb-15 and then my luck ran out completely. No one can be that unlucky to lose so much in a single month anyway, so it has to be variance! ;)

Here’s the graph of the system results since inception in Sep-10 to the end of February 2015. I’ll share the graph at the end of March in the March review, it won’t be pretty…..

Friday, 13 March 2015

February 2015 Monthly Review

Well, I’ve managed to go a whole 6 weeks without a results update on the blog. The last post was a review of January and now we’re in the middle of March.

Anyone following the service will be aware of why this is but for those not seeing my emails, the truth is that I have found it incredibly difficult this season to dedicate as much time to the football project as previously. Becoming a Dad has had a massive impact on my spare time as you would imagine and combined with my career continuing to take up more and more of my time, it’s been nearly impossible to get time to do blog posts etc.

I just about have enough time to send bets out, update results & ratings and place some of my bets and monitor my own betting results. Unfortunately, trying to do any value adds like blog posts or one-off pieces of analysis, it has been impossible. Being honest, I don’t see this changing in the near future and I expect TFA as a service will look a little different next year. I did say that last year but my issue is so many people use the systems and ratings in various ways, it’s hard to reduce the workload without impacting someone!

Anyway, enough of my moaning. The is going to be a very, very quick overview of the performance of the systems in February. I won’t call it a review, I’m not really reviewing anything!

Given we’re halfway through March and things haven’t really improved, it has been a tough 6 or 7 weeks I’m afraid but that’s part of the game as I know only too well!

Est Systems

Here’s the results of both of the rating algorithms and the 11 systems:

An amazing performance from algorithm 1 with a profit of 17.1pts from 88 bets. As has been the case for most of the seasons, all of the profits have come in the lower value band. Algorithm 2 made a small loss of 0.2pts and again, it was the lower value band bets that have kept this algorithm afloat.

In total, the 11 systems made a loss of 20.2pts from 399 bets. Disappointing considering the algorithm results weren’t too bad this month.

As has been the case for the last few seasons (wow, seems a long time!), the filtering of the algorithms just doesn’t work. System 7 made a loss even though system 6 had an amazing month. Sort of sums up the filtering I’m afraid.

New Systems

Here’s the results of both of the rating algortihms and the 11 systems:

A loss on algorithm 3, a loss on algorithm 4 and a loss of 23.1pts from 513 bets from the 11 systems. Algorithm 4 somehow made 22.6pts profit from 19 low value Away bets! These traditionally aren’t the best bets, so sort of sums up the way this season has gone!

System 31-41 managed to make a profit even though both algorithms had a poor month. Apart from this, no other highlights.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for the 6 systems:

 A loss of 7.1pts from the 316 bets.

Draw Systems

Here’s the results for the 11 systems:

 A loss of 26.4pts from 337 bets. Another very tough month for these systems and the season has been disappointing considering the results last season. I hope that in future, we look back on this season’s very low draw strike rate and say these UK Draw systems did well to only have a small loss!

Euro Systems

Here’s the results for the 11 systems:

A profit of 89.3pts from 331 bets. All 11 systems made a decent profit again, so difficult to have too many complaints.

Euro Draw Systems

Here’s the results for the 11 systems:

 A loss of 66.6pts from 315 bets.

It’s becoming a bit of race between the Euro Systems and the Euro Draw Systems. The Euro systems are doing an amazing job at trying to cover the losses on the Euro Draw systems! Would be some achievement to cover these losses fully I suspect but so far, they’re doing a good job. I keep expecting the Euro Draw systems to have an odd week where results go well but not happened too often all season.

Overall, a loss of 54.1pts from 2,211 bets across the month. Felt like a much worse month unless you are top heavy on Euro system bets!