Saturday, 29 December 2012

December Review

I jinxed myself last month by saying that before that month, the monthly reviews were boring as it was profits every month. Well, safe to say we don’t need to worry too much about profits this month either which is a shame. I wish I could just get back to monthly reviews where there were big profits every month. I know it’s boring winning all the time but boy, it is better than losing all the time!

I’ll do as I usually do and go through each set of systems one at a time. (There are still two outstanding results as stated on the last post. I’ll obviously update the results sheets for these results tomorrow night but this is assuming both bets lose).

Established Systems

A month that started well for these systems but the Festive period was a nightmare (see last blog post for gory details!). Overall though, a loss on the month of 40.2pts if betting outright from 403 bets. This is the second losing month in a row after a 12pt loss last month. The 40pts lost is actually the 5th worst month since Sep-06 and is the 4th worst month since the systems went live. Very disappointing but maybe it was overdue (I said that last month though!). The systems were showing a level of consistency I didn’t think was possible over a calendar year and maybe some sort of correction is happening now.

We all know this is irrational and ultimately, every month and every bet even is independent of what has happened before but I do think at times, you can’t continue to win forever without the odd blip happening now and again. Let’s just hope we’re over the blip now!

The combined systems lost a massive 26.4pts in the month and that makes it the second losing month in a row for these systems too. These systems are basically break-even for the season now which is disappointing to say the least.

I think I should make a little mention of the draw this month. As you can see, if using AH0.5, it was actually a small profit on the month and that shows the draw has been a menace this month.

In terms of the individual systems, the base ratings didn’t do badly again this month. System 6 lost 1.3% but system 21 made a profit of 16.7%. They combined to give a profit of 8.2% on system 6-21. This is a great base to work from but for the umpteenth time this season, the higher systems made a mess of things in a massive way and this has summed up the season to date.

So far this season, systems 6, 21 and 6-21 are profitable and are having decent seasons. My ratings are working as well as they have always done and arguably, they are doing better than last season. However, narrowing down the bets has been very difficult and this is where the issue lies this month again.

6-22 made a loss even though 6-21 was a profitable subset to choose bets from and the same applies to 7-21. 7-21 took the 71 bets on 6-21, selected 33 and turned an 8.2% profit into a 33% loss. Hard to believe tbh but it is consistent with previous months this season. Goes against everything we learnt in the first two seasons though.

7-22 only hit 2 winners from 12 which is shocking and 8-21 and 8-22 had a disaster too again this month.

If this was the first season these systems had been alive, you would seriously be doubting the ability of these systems to narrow down the bets but as the systems have shown for 2 seasons, they do a brilliant job of narrowing down the best bets (or at least, they did until Oct-12!).

I think we just need to continue to keep an eye on things and in the grand scheme of things, I’m sure 7-22 and 8-22 look OK if we take into account the previous results but the longer this run goes on, the more worrying it is for all of us!

New Systems


I feel like I can’t be too harsh on these systems considering it’s their first live season but basically, they have suffered their first monthly loss this season. (NB. If St Mirren win tomorrow, this won’t be the case!)  Even so, a loss of 5.1pts from 537 bets isn’t a disaster by any means and considering the first 3 months were profitable, I can live with a small loss this month.

Interestingly, the combined systems made a small profit this month, so that’s 3 months out of 4 for these too in terms of profit as the combined systems suffered a small loss in Oct-12 if I remember rightly.

Looking at the individual systems, there isn’t much to say. The largest loss was 4.9pts and the largest profit was 6.1 on system 31-41. Interestingly, 31 and 41 were both loss making but 31-41 was the best system. A great advert for the way the systems work!

I feel like I should point out the fact the AH returns improved the more draw coverage you had. Clearly, the draw played some part in the poor performance this month but in previous months, the draw didn’t impact these systems when it impacted other systems, so it’s swings and roundabouts.

Overall, a solid enough month for these systems and if this is a bad month for these systems (bearing in mind the good months were +121 and +76), then we can take a small loss.

Misc Systems


Given the mess that every other system has made this month, it says a lot (and I mean a lot!) that these 6 systems all made a small profit this month. Not only that,  the results for outright betting were the same overall as using AH0.5. This is pretty rare and it shows that the systems were impacted by too many draws this month and yet, they still made profits. An exceptional performance.

A profit of 28.4pts from 287 bets. Doesn’t look like a great month but when other systems are losing 10% in a month, to win 10% is very good! 

One thing that has separated the established systems from other systems has been their ability to dodge the really bad days but this season, it is these Misc systems that have done this the best. As I’ve written a fair few times on the blog, I had great faith in these systems last season and they let me down. I took a gamble this season by keeping these systems as part of my portfolio and so far, I’ve been repaid handsomely. Obviously, it’s not ideal that a set of miscellaneous systems are holding up my portfolio this season but that’s the beauty of portfolio betting. If you follow enough different bets that aren’t correlated, then you can hopefully smooth out the P&L a little and so far, it has been this way this season.  I still believe the Est systems are better systems and come season end, it will be interesting to see where the Misc Systems end up in comparison.

Under/Over Systems



A bit of a nothing month for these bets. A loss of 0.9pts on the month from 56 bets. (NB. This assumes a loser tomorrow. If this wins, it will be a small profit on the month).

It was a small profit for the Over system, offset by a loss on the Under system. They have followed this pattern for most of this season, where the Over system has been the most profitable system. Last season, they finished neck and neck in terms of ROI but the Over system has really struggled to find a decent number of bets this season if I’m honest. However, it has made up for it with a much better ROI, so it’s swings and roundabouts again.

I keep saying it but for me personally, these systems don’t do much for me at all. However, I know a few people are following them this season and are doing OK I think, so they’ll remain part of the overall portfolio as long as there is some demand for them.

Euro Systems


I didn’t think I’d be saying this too often this season but these systems have been the star performer this month. They really are hit and miss on any day and they are as likely to hit no winners as hit a few big priced winners but so far, they are proving profitable and that’s all that matters.  A great month with a profit of 80.7pts from 329 bets. An ROI of 24.5%.

A great performance but the most interesting stat by far is that backing AH0.5 made a loss of 47.6pts! Clearly, the teams either won or lost this month which shows how thin a line there is at times. It’s very rare to see such a variance in performance and clearly, anyone using AH betting on these bets probably lost in the month even the systems had a decent month!

The worst performing system was E3-E7 which is meant to be the best system but E2-E7 had an ROI of 59% this month, so depending on what systems you follow, it could have been a good month or a great month or even a losing month!

Overall

I was actually surprised when I did this calculation for this month. Overall, it was a profit of 62.9pts from 1,612 bets.  Yeah, I’m sure many reading this are as surprised as me! Having just did a post with the Festive results which showed a loss of 170pts which was 50% of the season’s profits to date (to the end of Nov-12), it basically means that in the first half of December, the systems made in excess of 50% of the season’s profits to that point. It’s funny, it’s a great advert for not getting too carried away with short term losses as you soon forget about the profits you’ve just made before the losses occurred.

I think the reason things feel worse is because the losses are being generated on the Est Systems which make up the largest chunk of my betting portfolio and for many people following, this is their betting portfolio. Hindsight is wonderful at this game as I’ve said many times and I’m sure if we wound the clock back to the start of this season, we’d all be looking to diversify our portfolios much more and not choose to follow a very small selection of systems from one set of ratings.

Of course, on the other hand, the systems which are carrying most money are meant to be the ones which have the most proofed results and therefore, maybe I’m asking for a lot to have taken more of a punt with other systems but I’m sure I would have diversified even more if given the chance again. I suspect I’m not the only one thinking along these lines……

Next post should be an update of the season to date. We’ll call it half season review.

Absolute Rubbish!


It’s difficult to know where to start with this update. OK, firstly, I should point out that there are two bets outstanding this weekend. I have St Mirren to win tomorrow in Scotland and I have Over 2.5 goals in the QPR game. For this update, I have assumed both bets lose as I have assumed St Mirren lost and there were under 2.5 goals in the other game. If either of these things are incorrect, I’ll obviously tweak the results but it’s just easier if I assume these results for this update. Saves me from having to update after tomorrow’s games and means I can draw the month to a close tonight.

This update covers the weekend before Christmas, Boxing Day games and then the games this weekend. To say it has been a massacre wouldn’t be understating things I think. It has been a torrid time and at times like this, you do look at some of the systems and think they’re defying the laws of probability by hitting so many losers in a short space of time.

This is probably about the tenth time in two and a half seasons I’ve said this but these systems can look like the best betting systems ever when things are going well but when things don’t go well, you do think to yourself, these are the worst systems I’ve ever seen.  I suspect after the last couple of fixtures, I’m not alone in thinking that the systems are rubbish!

As always, you do need to try to keep perspective where possible but even so, this latest setback, on the back of various setbacks over the last few months have some systems looking like they are in for a horrendous season.  Systems 7-22 and 8-22 fall into this category. Both came into the season with ROI’s of 20%+ over the last two seasons but both are well down on the season now. Both actually started the season Ok, so it has been a dramatic fall from grace for these systems over the last few months.

One issue with having so many systems is that it’s difficult for me to know how everyone is doing this season. I suspect people fall into two camps now. Those who stuck with the tried and tested systems this season will be paddling fast to keep themselves afloat and to save themselves from sinking. Anyone else who took a punt with any of the other UK systems (or even in addition to these established systems) will be doing OK. If anyone could foresee the troubles the Est systems would have had this season, then they’re doing better than me at this game I suspect!

OK, so onto the results update.

Established Systems


This actually quite amusing in a sad sort of way but the strike rate says it all. 39 winners from 207 bets. You don’t need me to tell you that is piss poor for a set of systems and it’s a disgraceful run of form. I can pick out a few highlights for you….

System 6 – 4 winners in the last 28 bets at average odds of 3.59
System 7 – 2 winners in the last 15 bets at average odds of 2.69
System 8 – 1 winner in the last 9 bets at average odds of 2.67
System 21 – 5 winners in the last 24 bets at average odds of 3.75
System 22 – 2 winners in the last 13 bets at average odds of 2.99

Obviously, the combined systems just take these bets and cross refer them, so the results on the combined systems aren’t going to be any good when the base ratings are throwing out these results!

System 6 is on a drawdown of 15.1 (30.1), System 7 is on a drawdown of 23.1 (29.7), system 8 is on a drawdown of 14.1 (24.4), system 21 is on a drawdown of 12.0 (27.9) and system 22 is on a drawdown of 17.6 (25.6). 

The figures in brackets for the drawdowns are the max drawdowns the systems have experienced historically.  As you can see, no system is at a max drawdown and of course, betting banks are set based on a multiple of the max drawdown, so there is a long way to go before the systems are busting betting banks but even so, it’s not a pretty run of form for these systems.

Since the last update then, a loss of 81.36pts from 207 bets. A shocking return and basically guarantees the second losing month in a row for these systems. I find it amazing that a set of systems can have 10 winning months in a row and then follow it with two shocking months one after another. I’ll save the observations for the monthly report!

Interestingly, the AH returns aren’t quite as bad but they are still poor. Therefore, you can’t even say draws were to blame for this terrible run of form. Quite simply, the teams haven’t been performing as the ratings suggested they would.

Surely to fuck the systems are due some winners…..errr…we’ll see.

New Systems

Compared to the Est systems, these systems look like they’ve been having a good time of it lately. A loss of 37.44pts from 242 bets. Hardly a good spell but 75 winners from 242 bets is a lot better than 39 from 207!

The base ratings aren’t having a great time of it at all though. System 31 has had 4 winners in 23 bets and 41 has had 5 winners in 24 bets. Terrible spells and just about sums up the way things have been going lately.

What I would say in the defence of these systems is that they haven’t had nearly as bad a season as the Est systems have had and therefore, I can’t be too harsh on these systems for this update. It’s never good to lose money but anyone following these systems so far this season and rolling in money, so a poor couple of sets of fixtures won’t do too much damage.

Misc Systems


A shocking performance from these systems over the last couple of sets of fixtures too. Only 34 winners from 130 bets and a loss of 26.75pts. I guess the positive for these systems is that they didn’t have as many bets as the other systems, so that has helped to limit the damage!

A similar comment applies to these systems as the last set though. Anyone following these systems this season (they have saved my portfolio this season so far!), isn’t going to be too concerned with a poor spell at the moment. The systems have actually had a profitable month and remain profitable this season, so we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt at the moment.

The biggest drawdown at the moment on any of the systems is on 6-21-31 and it is only 12.9pts. I say only but compared to the other drawdowns on many other systems, 12.9pts seems like a result! :(

Under/Over Systems

It’s not very often I do a results post where the best results are on these systems! A loss of 0.42pts from 28 bets isn’t too bad and compared to the other systems, it looks good! It may even look better as the system has a free shot at the QPR game tomorrow as I already have that down as a loser, so it could be a little better than a small loss.

Euro Systems

Not for the first time this season, these systems showed absolutely nothing during a set of fixtures. These systems are something of an enigma if I’m honest and they are so hit and miss. They either seem to hit lots of big priced winners or hit absolutely nothing. Very hard to fathom but maybe once we see more bets in the second half of the season, things will settle down. The Euro bets always have more bets after Christmas than before, so the Euro bets have a helluva lot of bets still to come this season whereas the UK bets are halfway through the season now.

Only 19 winners from 88 bets and a loss of 33.3pts. AH betting was even worse with higher losses!

I guess the only positive for these systems is that they have had a break over the Festive Period, so losses were capped!  They’ll be returning soon though….. :o

I need a calculator for this but I make it a loss of 179.27pts from 695 bets for this update. Based on the figures to the end of Nov-12, this is 50% of the season’s profits gone in one fell swoop. Quite amazing how bad the systems can do during a bad spell……

Not long to go till the next set of bets, New Years Day will soon be here. Gulp!!!!!

Next blog update will be the monthly update for Dec-12. Won’t make pretty reading for any of us following the systems.  :(

Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Weekend Update


A quick update from the weekend results. The UK results were ruined by a couple of teams losing 2-0 leads and generally, the draw was a major issue this weekend with the UK bets.  The Euro systems performed much better again and managed to consolidate a decent start to the month of December with another profitable weekend.

No major damage done though and we move onto the weekend.

Est Systems


The results would have looked much better if Bradford had not lost a 2-0 lead very late on. A loss of 4.21pts from 75 bets. The combined systems made a tiny loss overall, so no real harm done.

New Systems


At first glance, a really poor weekend but a quick look at the AH returns shows where the issue lies with these bets at the weekend. A loss of 30pts if backing outright and yet, a profit of 15pts is using AH0.5. Says it all really.

Misc Systems


A similar story to the New Systems here. A loss of 8.54pts for outright betting and yet, a profit of 8.94 if using AH0.5.

Under/Over Systems

A great weekend for these (have you ever seen a rollercoaster like these bets before?) and they managed to hit 7 from 9 correct for a profit of 5.77pts. Amazing performance after the terrible weekend last week. I wonder what will happen this weekend?

Euro Systems


Tremendous weekend with profits on every Euro system again this weekend. These really look to have turned the corner after a tricky start. Overall, a profit of 57.6pts from 77 bets. Amazingly, no real profits if using AH0.5, so the draw didn’t hinder these systems at all this weekend. Shows what can happen when teams win, rather than draw!

Overalll, a profit of 19.9pts this weekend from 325 bets. Not exactly a great weekend but when you consider Bradford lost a 2 goal lead and was about a 60pt swing overall, it wasn’t far away from being a very good weekend, rather than just an average weekend.

Let’s see what the weekend brings……

Tuesday, 11 December 2012

That's more like it......


This is an update from two weekends ago, last midweek and the weekend past. Really been non-stop again, so finding time to update the blog has been difficult but as always, I do my best.

It has been a really good period and this month has started about as well as I could have hoped for. After a difficult two months in a row, it’s nice to start the month well but with the Christmas period included in this month, it’s going to be a busy month, so there is a long way to go!

Not surprisingly, it is the New systems and Misc systems that have been doing great so far this month but unlike the last couple of months, the Est systems and Euro systems aren’t too far behind. The Under/Over systems have started the month poorly after a good month last month.

Est Systems


A real steady start to the month with profits achieved in 4 of the 5 days so far. 65 winners from 121 bets tells the story I think and a profit of 45.3pts overall. 

The second algorithm continues to be the star of the show this season and another couple of brilliant days already this month.  4 from 5 on the 1st of month, followed by 9 from 14 on Saturday is an  amazing run of form given the odds we’re backing at here.  Over 21pts profit from 22 bets so far this month.

New Systems


Similar to the Est Systems, I think the strike rate is the key here. 94 winners from 197 bets is great going and a profit of 63pts already this month. The weekend past was pretty special for these systems and they continue to amaze me with the returns this season.

Don’t want to discuss the season to date results too much as I like to keep that to the month end reports but these results so far have been stunning. I keep thinking to myself it can’t continue and surely they’ll level off at some point but the P&L continues to increase at a rate of knots! 

Let’s hope they can finish the month as well as they have started and it would be great if these systems could start with 4 months of profits since they have went live. The Est Systems managed to do this when they first went live, so the New Systems are trying to copy these systems, 2 seasons later than the Est Systems managed it.

Misc Systems


A truly stunning month so far for these systems with a profit of 63.7pts from only 91 bets! Not much more to say and these systems have really, really impressed me this season and justify my decision to continue with these systems after a poor first season last season. I kept the faith with a few of these systems in my own betting portfolio after last season as I had more faith in these systems than the New systems this season and although this hasn’t worked out perfectly, they’re not a bad substitute for not following more of the new systems!

Euro Systems


These systems continue to be very unpredictable if I’m honest. They started the month amazingly well and hit lots of winners (41 from 73 bets) to generate the first real big profit this season on these systems. They then follow up with no winners in the next 53 bets to nearly wipe out all the profits in the month and then they hit a really nice winner to get most of the profits back again! Very up and down and the weekend past was farcical as they barely hit any winners and the losers weren’t drawing either for a change!

End of the day, 56pts from 164 bets so far this month is a great start but I can’t help but feel there are going to be more ups and downs this month based on the results so far!

Under/Over Systems


A rubbish start to the month with a loss of 6.28pts from only 19 bets.  I’ve given up trying to predict anything about these Under/Over systems. Just when I thought they’d maybe turned the corner again, a losing run comes along and wipes out any small bit of confidence I had in them.  We’ll see what happens next!

Overall results

I couldn’t have dreamed of a better start to the month I think. A profit of over 220pts from only 592 bets gives a great foundation for the month and hopefully the systems can build on this. When you combine this month so far with my last post on the season to date, it’s suddenly looking a helluva lot better than it looked 6-8 weeks ago!

Still early days this month and of course, we’re not quite 40% of the way through the season yet, so there is a long, long way to go. This month in particular will be interesting with the busy Christmas schedule, followed by the New Year schedule at the start of Jan, so before we know it, we’ll soon be 50% of the way through the season and we can take stock of things a little more.

Tuesday, 4 December 2012

Quick High Level Analysis of UK Bets This Season

I had a few minutes at lunch today and a couple of people have asked me to pull together some stats in the last few days for them.  Given I’m very busy at work at the moment and I’m spending all my spare time keeping the football ratings ticking along as well as issuing the bets and placing my own bets, then it’s asking a bit much for me to do pieces of individual analysis throughout the season for subscribers. I don’t mind doing bits and pieces of high level analysis though as it interests me as well as others to look at trends and what is happening this season.

So, the two pieces of analysis I’ve been asked to do were the profitability of all UK systems split between Home and Away bets and the profitability by league. I think the hypothesis was that Home bets aren’t doing well (correct) and that League Two is losing us a fortune this season (incorrect!).

Here’s the proof below.


To be fair to the subscriber who asked about League Two, my hypothesis would be that the Established systems have had a terrible time with League Two bets this season as lots of highly rated bets haven’t performed as expected in League Two this season. I’m sure I mentioned this in an email recently as someone else had pointed it out to me also.

Anyway, here’s the proof that my hypothesis is correct! :)


Can we draw any conclusions from the above? Well, I’m interested in what is causing League Two to be so bad. I would have guessed it would be the Home bets but as you can see below, it is the away bets!


16 winners from 91 bets is shocking really and even if I was trying to find teams to lay, I doubt I could do as well as this in the long-run! A -35% ROI is something you don’t see very often on football betting.

Not sure any of the above means much as 3 months isn’t a lot of time but historical evidence leads me to believe that Homes tend to do much better than Aways, so that’s the biggest concern this season so far. Surely we’re due a run of winners with the Home bets………if only it was that easy!

Sunday, 2 December 2012

November 2012 Review & Season Update


Time for another monthly review. When I think back to the first two seasons, most of the monthly reviews were pretty boring as profits were made on most of the systems, the combined systems were much better than the single systems and of course, systems 7-21 to 8-22 wiped the floor with most of the other systems that were proofing live results. How times change……..

As usual, I’ll just work through each set of systems and try to pick out any highlights. The Excel sheet with the figures will be sent to subscribers as usual but I’ve pasted the tables below which can still be seen I hope.

Established Systems


A tricky month again for these systems and unlike last month, they didn’t manage to sneak a profit. A loss of 12.3pts from 436 bets if backing outright. Small profits were made if using some form of draw coverage on all the bets but it would be wrong to say it was a losing month due to draws. Draws weren’t solely to blame this month.

To put this loss into perspective, it is the first losing month since September 2011.  Back then, the systems lost 86pts. Go back to Apr-11, it was a loss of 93.7pts and of course, the first losing month since the systems went live was in Feb-11 and this was a loss of 61.7pts. Therefore, a loss of 12.3pts might sound like a poor month (and it has been) but those who have been following the systems for a while will know it’s not exactly the worst month the systems have had.

Looking at the individual systems, the pleasing thing for me personally is that system 6 and system 21 both had small profitable months again. My ratings are continuing to find value for the most part but unfortunately, the higher value bets and those that are appearing on the higher systems aren’t performing as well as they have done for the last two seasons. 

System 22 was the main culprit this month and a loss of 7.4pts from 16 bets hurts the combined systems. Only 3 winners from 16 bets but there were 8 draws in there. Hence, although draws aren’t totally to blame for the poor month, if one or two of these draws had been wins, the month wouldn’t have been a losing month, so it really is a thin line at this game.

The combined systems in total had their first losing month since Sep-11 with a loss of 13.5pts. Again, to put it in perspective, the previous losing months were 39pts, 46pts and 29pts, so 13.5pts isn’t a disaster. It’s disappointing that 6-21 had a losing month considering 6 and 21 were profitable and as you filter down from there, it gets difficult with system 22 having a poor month.  6-22, 7-22 and 8-22 all had poor months but system 22 was to blame.

Overall, a poor month for these systems which follows a poor month last month. Two poor months in a row but not a disaster. I know I keep going on about perspective but the historical results are the best guide to the future at this game. The 3 bad monthly losses in 2011 occurred in a short space of time and the systems lost 122.2pts in 5 months. I know some people are probably annoyed at the results so far this season, given the results the Established systems have had for the past two seasons but I still believe it’s early days this season.  Over the last two months, the Established systems have had 846 bets for a profit of 0.4pts. Poor results but then again, it could be worse!

The worrying thing for me remains systems 7-22 to 8-22 and going into the season, these were the 3 best TFA systems. Between them this season, they have only had 29 winners in 88 bets and are showing a combined loss. Last season, they hit 94 winners from 190 bets. Hence, if they are going to get anywhere near last season, they are going to have to go on an amazing run but given the run they are on, I’d be happy if they made any profit this season! :(

New Systems


Another great month for these systems this season. A profit of 76.3pts from 582 bets. The base ratings only made a 2.9% on system 31 and 7.5% on system 41 but the combined systems are really doing a brilliant job in using these ratings (similar to what the Est Systems did for the first two seasons!). The combined systems made a profit of 41.2pts from 239pts.

I really get excited when I look at the results for these systems this month and I see the near perfect trends that we’re striving for at this game. The filtering between 31-33 is working well, the filtering between 41 and 42 worked perfectly (7.5% on 41 increasing to 21.9% on system 42) and of course, that then leads on to this beautiful pattern on the combined systems. The higher the systems, the better the results.

There have been so many months where I’ve reviewed the Est Systems and this pattern has been apparent and therefore, it’s great that these systems are showing the same sort of trends.

The one thing that is hard to fathom remains the performance of the AH returns on these systems. It was actually a loss for AH0.25 and AH0.50 on these systems even though they hit a crazy number of winners. Basically, these systems seem to only hit winners and losers and manage to not get too stuck with draws pulling down performance.

I personally have always taken some comfort from the fact the Est Systems always tend to hit winners and draws in the main (apart from this season when there are not enough winners!) and therefore, it does lead me to think that there is a thin line on the New Systems between success and failure.  When they are hitting the winners as they are doing now, the results look awesome and they make the Est Systems look rubbish but how sustainable is this sort of return?

The other question mark for me is last season. These New Systems have now made more profit this season than all of last season! Last season, the draw seemed to really impact these systems and yet, this season, it is having no impact on these systems but seems to be impacting the Est Systems a lot more.

I still believe the gap between the Est Systems and the New Systems is nowhere near as large as it looks at the moment but I’ve been saying that for a few months now. The longer this season goes on and the more the New Systems outperform the Est Systems, the more we may have to consider some movement away from the Est Systems to the New Systems. I expect whatever happens, many of us will be diversifying the portfolio next year away from the Est Systems a lot more than we did this season!

Misc Systems


A couple of these systems have been the star performers this month in the portfolio. No one is more relieved than me if I’m honest as I have been very loyal to these systems since they went live and they have been a lot of work for not a lot of return. However, I kept the faith this season and so far, they haven’t let me down.

Overall, a profit of 58.4pts from 348 bets at an ROI of 16.8%. A similar trend to the New Systems where the AH returns are nowhere near as good but these systems seem to specialise in big odds aways and therefore, they do tend to be a bit hit and miss.

TOX was the star performer with a profit of 17.7pts from 49 bets. STOY wasn’t too far behind and a profit of 13.4pts from 53 bets.

Still early days for these systems this season and after the poor performance last season, it’s too early to get too excited but it looks a lot better. Since going live, the Misc Systems have now dragged their ROI up to 7.5% overall. Not exactly what I hoped for when I created these systems but given the performance of my betting portfolio this season, these systems are holding it up while 7-22 to 8-22 are bringing it down!

Under/Over Systems


I’m nearly lost for words about these systems this month! A 27.4% for the Under system and a 39.6% for the Over system. A 14pt profit from 47 bets with an ROI of 29.8%.

A great performance and since going live last season, these systems have dragged their ROI up to 36.4pts from 585 bets.  An ROI of 6.2%. 

Considering they have started the season with two losing months, it’s great that they have recouped the losses this month.  I think the story with these systems is similar with the Misc Systems. When I developed these systems, I hoped for a much better return than 6.2% but then again, given how much they have struggled, to get a return of 6% or thereabouts is pleasing.

I still don’t have any great confidence in these systems myself but I know a couple of people follow these systems and manage to make them work for themselves, so we’ll keep tracking them and see how they do.

Euro Systems


Where the hell do I start with these systems? I look at the results and I just sort of want to scratch my head and think, WTF is going on?

Let’s start on a good note. A winning month (again!) for the base ratings. System E1 made a return of 10% from 83 bets and E6 made a profit of 5.1% from 94 bets.  That’s great returns and backs up a decent start to the season for the ratings.

However, it soon all goes to shi* when you look at the filtering that is occurring. E2 manages to turn E1 into a loss of 4.7% but surprisingly, E3 manages to make a profit of 22.3%! Very strange and clearly, E2 is letting the side down.

This is a drop in the ocean compared to what happens with the second algorithm. It’s actually hard to believe this but E7 takes a 5.1% profit on E6 and it turns it into a loss of 38.5%! Wow….. 

Interestingly though, E6 has a loss of 7.4% if using AH0.5 but E7 improves that to a loss of only 3.7%! Therefore, it must be the case that E7 does a great job of picking up all the draws from E6 and missing off all the winners. Nice work! NOT!

This basically means the combined systems involving E7 have no chance and it shows through in the results. A loss of 37.1% on E1-E7, a loss of 40% on E2-E7 but amazingly, a profit of 8.7% on E3-E7. I guess E3 is the best system as it somehow manages to protect E3-E7 and as I said above, E3 turns a loss from E2 into a profit on E3. Therefore, I can draw the fairly strong conclusion that E3 is the best individual system this month on the European bets by a helluva long way!

At a high level then, a loss of 8.1pts from 500 bets isn’t a disaster although it follows on from a fairly average month last month. The combined systems are struggling too though and a loss of 5.8pts this month from 212 bets.

Two months into the season, a 7pt profit from 678 bets isn’t exactly the start I was looking for on the Euro systems but as I keep saying, let’s keep things in perspective. It’s not great but it’s not a disaster.  The last losing month on these systems during backtesting saw a loss of 75pts, so a loss of 8.1pts this month is no disaster.

The combined systems have had a fairly tough start and it’s a loss 3.2pts this season from 285 bets. Again, not what I wanted for the first two months of bets but with the number of draws and the lack of winners, it’s amazing the loss isn’t bigger! If they can just start getting a little bit of luck and start turning a few draws into wins, I’m sure we’ll see profits accumulate on these Euro systems.

Overall Monthly Results

At a high level then, a profit of 128pts this month from 1,913 system bets. Not the best month again but I guess if I’m being positive, it is another winning month for the whole portfolio of systems which keeps the P&L ticking over.

The concern remains the fact the Est Systems aren’t doing as well as last season and of course, the Euro systems haven’t exactly set the world alight so far. We’ll see what the next month brings.

Season Summary to Date


Saturday, 1 December 2012

Last Weekend, Midweek and Friday the 30th.....


As the title suggests, this update covers last weekend, the midweek and then Friday night. Friday was officially the end of the month of November, so I’ll draw the cut-off then for the monthly reporting as usual.  I’ll try to keep any observations for the monthly report which will follow this post but it has been a tricky month for the second month running on many of the systems. Anyway, more of that on the next post.

Established Systems


It seems like I say this all the time at the moment when I’m updating the results posts. Another tricky period for these systems and they continue to struggle along. They actually look a shadow of themselves compared to the first two seasons but I do think things need to kept in context. I know not everyone follows all of the systems or all of the combined systems even and anyone following a few of the higher combined systems aren’t having a great time of it at the moment but the actual base ratings aren’t performing too badly on these systems.  They are in profit and have been all season, the only thing that is letting the systems down is the filtering between the systems.

A loss of 15pts from 102 bets highlights how difficult it has been over the last week again although the draw has been a pain on these systems recently. I thought the month was summed up well in the Birmingham game last night where I had Middlesboro to win. I watched the game and Middlesboro were in front twice, played the whole game with confidence while Birmingham looked badly out of form and were playing poorly and yet, Birmingham ended up winning. I’ve still no idea how they won that game tbh but I wasn’t surprised considering I’d backed Middlesboro!

Overall, a tricky period for these systems and the monthly winning run had to come to an end sometime and unfortunately, it is this month. More of that in the next post!

New Systems

Another decent period for these systems and they continue to laugh at the Est Systems this season. A profit of 24.23pts from 152 games. A nice return which finishes off the month well and it’s safe to say that these systems have started the season as well as I could have dreamed about!

I think it’s remarkable that it’s like the New Systems and Est Systems have flipped around completely this season. Last season, the Est Systems wiped the floor with the New Systems (which weren’t live admittedly and were only backtested) but this season, now the New Systems have gone live, they are really making the Est Systems seem ordinary.

I keep saying it but it’s still early days for these New Systems. 3 months of good profits sounds great, especially when the Est Systems are really struggling this season but going into this season, the Est Systems had 15 months of good profits from 18 live months! The New Systems have a long way to go before they proof themselves as good as the Est Systems but I can’t help but feel we are maybe seeing the handover of one set of brilliant systems to another brilliant set of systems. I’ve said since day one that all systems have a shelve life and possibly, the Est Systems may be on the way out, to be replaced by these New Systems but we’ll see how the rest of the season pans out.

Misc Systems


A bit of a nothing update here for these systems. A loss of 4.9pts from 75 games. No real damage done. What I would say about these systems is that they have definitely proven themselves a bit more this season after an indifferent season last season. I follow these systems in my own betting portfolio even though they struggled badly last season and they have justified my faith a good bit this season already.

Euro Systems


These systems really are making me pull my hair out this season. I don’t want to keep restating the impact of the draw but I honestly believe there isn’t a big difference between profits and losses on these systems. At the moment, they don’t seem to get much going their way but at some point soon I hope, things will click and we’ll rack up some big profits. Until that happens, it’s a case of trying to stay in the game.

A profit of 19pts from 180 bets which tbh, is a decent return over a difficult period again. The weekend started well but the midweek went downhill after Tuesday evening with all losers on Wednesday and Friday. Still, given the month these systems have had, I’ll take any form of profit!

Under/Over Systems

These systems continue to surprise me and 7 winners from 10 games gave a profit of 4.62pts. A nice little run for these systems and the best month these systems have ever had since they went live I think! Long overdue though and still a long way to go before they convince me that they have any real potential for the future.

Overall then,  a profit of 27.95pts from another 519 bets. Not the best period but again, a small profit is eeked out. At the moment, the systems at a high level are managing to grind out gains here and there to offset losses on some of the higher profile systems which is keeping things moving forward. Hopefully things get easier in December!

Next post will be the November review…….

Sunday, 25 November 2012

Last Weekend & Midweek


This is an update from last weekend and the midweek games. I’m a little bit behind with the results updating as has become the norm. Been another frustrating weekend this weekend and if the Euro systems keep hitting the number of draws they are hitting, I’m going to be breaking records I suspect as the draw % on these systems is unbelievable at the moment but it will hopefully settle down soon!

Anyway, I’ll update this weekend and the midweek coming up later this week as well as try to do the monthly report for November. Should be an interesting read as it has been anything but plain sailing again this month but if this game was easy as my systems make it look at times, everyone would be doing it!

Established Systems


A profit of 2.98pts from 148 bets but it was a poor Saturday, a great Sunday and then a good midweek that has created this small profit. It continues to be a very frustrating time for the higher combined systems with 7-22 and 8-22 again creating losses. I know it’s only variance as these systems are the best systems I have seen over the first 2 seasons but this season, they aren’t clicking at all. They’ll keep plugging away and hopefully they’ll hit the sort of spell we’ve been accustomed to over the first couple of seasons but at the moment, they are making the game seem difficult!

New Systems


A profit of 0.37pts from 187 bets. The same trend as the Est systems and a decent midweek has helped them break-even on the week. These systems continue to impress and although it’s still early days, they continue to look more impressive than the Est systems this season. Hopefully the balance swings the other way soon but we’ll see what happens.

Misc Systems


A remarkable performance for these systems and a profit of 38.43pts from 116 bets. These systems are really coming into their own this season (about fuc*ing time!) and for me personally, a few of these systems are holding up my portfolio returns this season. I always had a lot of blind faith in the SGM systems since they went live and although they have generally disappointed me, I have continued to follow them in the hope they couldn’t do any worse than last season and so far, they have done well this season. They aren’t as flashy as most of the other systems but they have a real solid look about them and seem to be fairly consistent this season.

Under/Over Systems



I’ve not got a clue what’s going on with these systems all of a sudden but they have suddenly started performing well! 6 from 7 correct since the last update to turn around the month and amazingly, the overall system is in profit this season! Don’t ask me how it has happened as I’ve no idea but a profit is not to be sniffed at when you see the mess my other systems are making at times.  5.51pts profit from 7 bets.

Euro Systems



I’m running out of words to describe these systems and the draws they are hitting. I can only point to the results again. A loss of 20.4pts from 123 bets but a profit of 11.7pts if using AH0.5. I’ve said this lots of times since I started running my football systems but the draw is the enemy. If you are hitting lots and lots of draws, you’ve no chance of making profits and this is happening with these bets this season.

I’ll run it through at the end of the month if I can find the time but some of these systems must have an amazing ROI from backing the draw.  It is very frustrating and although the results now look shambolic for backing outright, I think the systems are closer than it appears. However, they’re judged on the results and unfortunately, they have been a bitter disappointment since going live.

The higher value bets are underperforming dramatically so far and this is pulling down the results of the higher combined systems enormously. 

The only thing that’s keeping my hopes alive with these systems is the base ratings are profitable and therefore, it shows they’re not far off. They just can’t narrow the bets down at all and ultimately, although the higher systems are picking teams from a winning pool of bets, they keep selecting the wrong bloody teams!

It’s still early days this season and these bets will have a lot more action post Christmas where the majority of bets are but after 15% of the bets I expect this season, let’s hope the next 85% of bets are a bit better.

(Unfortunately, I can tell you that this weekend has been badly impacted by the draw again. I make it 17 draws from 30 bets on E1-E7 to E3-E8 with some games to come. Unbelievable strike rate again and I dread to think the profit from backing draws on some of these system this season. )

Overall, a profit of 26.89pts from 581 bets. Considering how tough going it is at the moment, it’s pleasing to see the systems grind out any sort of profit but again, the systems I’d like to see generating the profits aren’t doing it. The profits this time are on the Misc Systems and Under/Over systems and these were the poorest performing systems last season, so it just shows why keeping a long-term view at this game are important.

I’ll be back later this week with the weekend and midweek update. At a high level, it has been small loss on the Est Systems, a small profit on the New Systems, a small loss on the Misc Systems and a small profit on the Under/Over sytems. The Euro systems are in the balance with a couple of games to come tomorrow night and one on Tuesday, so we’ll see what happens.

Monday, 12 November 2012

Season Review to Date

As I said on the last post, I think it’s important to stand back and take stock of the situation at times. I’m as guilty as anyone if I’m honest of paying too much attention to recent results and thinking things are worse than they appear to be. I think that comes from being so close to the ratings, finding the system bets, betting on them, going through an emotional rollercoaster most weekends and then having to spend endless hours updating results and then starting again with the ratings for the next set of fixtures.

The discipline needed at this game to make money is far greater than what most people could ever imagine and at times like this, I’m in danger of thinking I’m wasting my time this season with the footie betting as I’m staking large amounts most weekends to not make much headway at all or has been the case recently, to make small losses. In these circumstances (I’ve been here a few times before with the footie betting and footie modelling as regular blog readers will know), my answer is usually to stand back and take a look at how things have gone over the season. It doesn’t change the profit I’ve made or the results the systems have had and I don’t know why but it usually helps me keep things in perspective by doing this.   I could even go further and look at things over the last couple of seasons but I only tend to do that when I’m really, really low about the performance of the systems. I’m not quite there yet!

So, how do the results look this season?

I think the below table gives us all the information we need on the season to date. So far, there have been 3,104 bets this season. I think we’ll have around 15,000 system bets this season in total, so I suspect we’re about 20% of the way through the season. Here are the results:


As always, there is a lot of information here and it isn’t easy to digest at first glance, so I’ll try to break it down into parts for us to look at.

Established Systems

At a high level, a 9.8% return across 870 bets and a 12.6% return for the combined systems across 332 bets isn’t a bad start to the season.  I think my only concern is the performance of systems 6-8 and the knock on effect this has on the combined systems.

A 1.8% ROI on system 6 isn’t great and although it improves as you move up to system 7 and system 8, returns of 2.7% and 5.5% don’t set the pulse racing I’m afraid. On the other hand, system 21 has a 14.3% return and system 22 has a 24.3% return and this is above average I suspect. So, we have the first rating algorithm a little below average, the second rating algorithm a little above average and we end up with some interesting results on the combined systems.

6-21, 7-21 and 8-21 performance is in line with expectations and as you filter the bets, the results improve. 7.1%, 17.9% and 21.1% are the returns as you move down the systems and this is nearly exactly in line with plan. If these systems finished like this for the season, I’d be happy.

The issue lies with 6-22, 7-22 and 8-22. The returns are 29.3%, 8.9% and -7.9%. It’s hard to explain or even understand why this has happened. Historically, if system 6-22 had that sort of return, the return of 7-22 and 8-22 would be astronomical but so far this season, it hasn’t happened.

My worry looking at this is that 6-22 is unlikely to continue with that sort of return and therefore, 7-22 and 8-22 may take a hit when 6-22 adjusts back to a normal return. Of course, these systems didn’t catch the upside, so maybe it’s pessimistic to think they’ll catch the downturn but it does worry me a little. 7-22 has only had 28 bets and 8-22 has only had 19 bets, so it may be the case that it is simply variance and as we get more bets, these systems will do what they have traditionally done and filter 6-22 successfully. Even if 6-22 does hit a barren spell, 7-22 and 8-22 may still filter the bets well and miss most of the losers, so it is too early to panic too much about 7-22 or 8-22 yet.

Overall, combining the systems does improve the returns from the single systems and therefore, most of the trends on these systems are OK. The correlation between 7,8 and 22 is the only thing that looks strange so far but maybe we’ll see a correction soon.

New Systems

These systems have definitely been the surprise package so far this season. Before I looked at the backtested results for the systems, I was very keen on the idea of cross referring systems 31-33 (which were live last season) with a new set of systems called 41-42 as I always felt like 31-33 were waiting on another set of systems to come along, built in the same manner that could help them realise their potential. Of course, the backtested results last season were poor (5.4% ROI overall and -1.7% ROI for the combined systems) and that led me to believe I may have been leading us up the garden path with believing these systems could be any good.

10 weeks of bets and all of a sudden, it looks like I may have paid too much attention to the results from last season and ignored the amazing results from the previous 5 seasons. What I would say in my defence is that we are only 20% of the way into the season, so it would be wrong to draw any conclusions at this time but so far, these systems look pretty decent (and that’s an understatement!)

15.3% ROI across 1,193 system bets in total and an ROI of 19.8% over 468 combined system bets. Fantastic returns and when you compare these returns to the Est systems, they have wiped the floor so far this season with the Est systems.

If I’m honest, I still struggle to believe the results on these systems and all historical evidence points to algorithm two (system 21) being my best rating algorithm, followed by algorithm one (system 6) with the other two algorithms (Systems 31 and 41) lagging behind. Therefore, the only algorithm that isn’t upholding their side of the bargain is algorithm one and therefore, I suspect once algorithm one clicks into gear this season (if it ever does!), then it will catch up with algorithms 3 and 4 and we’ll see the Est Systems overtake the New systems this season.

So far, so good.

Misc Systems

I was pleasantly surprised when I updated these results for the season to date as I give these systems quite a hard time. I think this is a hangover from last season and I was disappointed with these systems last season and the returns and they didn’t exactly start this season great either. However, now I look at the results, they aren’t bad at all and when you see some of the returns on the other systems in the portfolio this season, these systems are holding their own.

A 9.4% ROI across 571 bets is a decent enough return. The trends are strange though on some systems and this is a hangover from what has happened so far with the Est. systems this season. 21-31 wouldn’t be expected to perform better than 6-21-31 and yet, it has a return of 11.9% against 6.8%.

The most interesting for me is System TOX beating System STOY. All historical evidence points to STOY being stronger than TOX and yet, TOX has a 17% ROI and STOY has 0.5%!

These little quirks are partly due to variance I suspect but they are also due to the fact the correlation between the systems hasn’t shown the same trend this season as the last two seasons. In particular, the single Est systems have been very good at picking out teams that other systems may not agree with and it hasn’t impacted the returns too much. For example, system 21 is doing better than system 6-21 which is very strange also this season and this has a knock on effect onto some of these Misc Systems.

Overall, a decent start this season for the Misc systems and they are performing better than last season. Early days though but it does justify my confidence in continuing with these systems after the poor performance last season.

Under/Over Systems

Not going to say much here. A loss of 4.4pts from 95 bets and an ROI of -4.6%. I think break-even is about the best these systems can do this season and I’ll need some convincing to continue with these systems for another season. The overall ROI since they were live is down at 4.6% from 568 bets. I give these systems a hard time and being honest, the return isn’t bad but at the end of the day, I don’t have any belief in these systems generating a return long-term.

Euro Systems

The impact of the draw so far this season is clear to see in these results. At a high level, 2.2% ROI across 375 bets isn’t a disaster but unfortunately, this drops to a 6.1% loss across the 156 combined system bets.

If you look at AH0 (Draw No Bet) returns though, it is 7.5% and 5.4% across both sets of systems, so much better than what the outright returns are showing.

The other thing to highlight here has to be the filtering of the bets and how poorly it has worked so far this season. E1 has a 22.7% ROI and E6 has a 16.2% ROI. This really is dream returns for a base rating algorithm and without any filtering, these systems are doing themselves proud.

Unfortunately, E2 takes that amazing return and turns it into a 19.8% loss. Strangely, E3 takes that loss and turns it into a 12.9% profit! All very strange happenings with this first algorithm and the only conclusion you can draw is that it is simply variance. 30 bets on E2 and 15 bets on E3 are really nothing and it’s too early to draw conclusions.

Likewise, E7 takes the return on E6 and turns it into a loss of 19%. 

The only thing you can be sure of looking at these returns on the single system is that E1-E6 is going to do OK but the other 5 combined systems will struggle!

A 15.3pt return on E1-E6 is more than eaten up by fairly chunky losses on E1-E7 to E3-E7. Interestingly, all the 6 combined systems are showing small profits to AH0.5 betting, so it’s a clear indication that the draw is proving costly on these systems at the moment.

Again though, variance is playing a part and quite simply, the impact of the draw will dilute once we get more games on these systems I hope. Either that or we can just all back the selections as draws as we’ll make big profits!

Overall then, that’s a quick rundown of the systems so far this season. I’d be lying if I said it had been a good start this season but then again, maybe it’s simply a case of expectations getting out of control and should we really expect 45 degree P&Ls all the time, consistent monthly profits or dare I say it, winning seasons every season on all systems?  I think the last part is key to this. If I was only giving out bets on system 7-22 this season, I’m sure people would be pulling their hair out, looking at the results, questioning whether I knew what I was do, whether the ratings had lost their edge, whether the systems were no good any more and so on.  As this post shows me (and those reading it), there isn’t too much wrong this season. Yes, things haven’t exactly gone to plan but I’m sure people have had worse starts to a football season than we’re experiencing here!

As always, any questions or comments, post them up or email me directly.

As a bit of fun, I have ordered the results by system so far this season, based on ROI. How many of us are following systems in the top 10 this season so far?  Not too many I would have thought!