Friday, 29 April 2011

Quick recap on value and a quick look at variable staking

When I logged on tonight to start writing this post, I had a quick look through the blogs on the right as I usually do and I saw Cassini over at http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/ had commented on variable staking. As usual, he’s spot on with his commentary and I don’t have anything more to add on the subject of variable staking in the sense of trying to turn a losing system at level stakes into a winning system.

In my opinion, if your system doesn’t have an edge at level stakes, then you can win in the short-term using some sort of variable staking strategy (usually one that involves chasing losses) but in the long-term, you will lose. That’s actually not just an opinion, it’s a fact. I’ve read lots of stuff on the internet over the years related to gambling which involve an 80%+ strike rate and involves chasing losses and for anyone without a brain, it does look like a strategy that is full-proof. Ultimately, without an edge, you won’t beat the person laying you the odds and it might takes weeks, months or even years before you lose your bank but rest assured, it will happen eventually.

Anyway, that’s not really the purpose of my post. I do like to think I share many of the same philosophies as Cassini when it comes to gambling but he’ll probably say I learned them all from reading his blog over the last few years! ;)

A couple of comments in the past few days have asked about variable staking with my footie selections which is the real reason for this post. I’ll also take this opportunity to explain a little more about the ratings and how they are good at determining value.

Cassini touched on it in his post tonight but long-term, you ideally want a system that is capable of finding value but for the Holy Grail, you ideally want the system to identify the better bets to stake most money on. i.e. the ones with the highest edge. This was one of the key things I had in my mind when I started work on this footie project 16 months ago and I think I can say that this has been a success this season. Not sure much else has been a success this season though after what’s happened since Christmas!

A quick summary of the systems again then for anyone who has missed this or not read the backlog of posts. There are two sets of ratings produced for every game I rate. One set is algorithm A and one set is algorithm B. System 6 has all the bets from algorithm A that are defined as value and system 21 has all the bets from algorithm B defined as value.

System 7/8/9 then narrow down the bets on system 6. As you go higher up the systems, the more selective the bets are and the higher the edge there is on each bet. Likewise, system 22 and 23 take the bets on system 21 and narrow them down to get the best bets.

Historically, the results have been in line with this idea most seasons on each system and overall, it is definitely the case that system 8 is better than system 7 and system 7 is better than system 6 and so on. What has happened this season?

Well, if you look back at my post a few days ago, it shows the results so far this season on all the systems and helps to illustrate my point. http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/2011/04/delusions-of-grandeur.html

I don’t want to spell it out too much but system 8 has an ROI of 8.8% against system 7 with an ROI of 4% and 6 with an ROI of 2.8%. Likewise, system 22 has an ROI of 9.1% and system 21 has an ROI of 4.5%.

The eagle eyed amongst you will be wondering why I have left out system 9 and system 23 from my analysis. Well, if you were to look back at the historical results tab and study the returns from these systems in past season, you will see that now and again, these systems do end up with lower returns than the less selective systems which goes against my idea of filtering the bets to find value which doesn’t happen on the other systems. What causes this I hear you ask? Simply, it is a lack of bets.

System 9 has only had 45 bets this season and system 23 has only had 69 bets this season. As you will be aware, over a small sample of bets, it isn’t necessarily the case that a significant edge can show through and quite often, if a couple of games go against you (as happened this year on both these systems I guess), it can turn a winning system into a losing system.

I knew from my backtesting that these systems probably wouldn’t have enough bets in a season to be a meaningful system but I kept them in here for this season. Hence, I don’t want to read too much into these systems and like systems 10,24 and 25, they’ll probably be consigned to the shelve due to a lack of volume of bets after this season.

If you look at the results at Christmas time in that table above, you can see the same effect where the higher numbered systems have a higher return. Again though, the small sample of bets can do funny things to this relationship between systems and system 9 had only an 11.4% return then when system 8 had an 18.5% return. Interestingly, system 23 had a return of 67.3% of Christmas from 20 bets and 49 bets later, it is making a small loss now! It shows that anything can happen in the short-term at this game.

The systems I’ve not touched on then are the systems where teams appear on both algorithms. Hence, when the first set of ratings pick a team and then the second set of ratings pick the same team. As discussed on the blog before, this is something that I didn’t trial before this season (I simply didn’t think about it last summer!) but I quickly picked up on the fact the results were very good when teams were picked on the first set of systems and the second set of systems and started to track it.

Looking at the results so far this season again, you can see that system 8-22 beats system 7-22 and 7-22 beats system 6-22. The returns of 28%,26% and 14.6% are exceptional on these systems. Likewise, interestingly, 8-21 is a little behind 7-21 this season but 7-21 beats 6-21. Again, this is likely to be simply down to a smaller sample of bets more than anything. If you look at the historical results, you’ll see that 8-21 is definitely a better system than 7-21.

Overall then, one thing that is clear this season is that my systems do their job at finding out which bets are the best value bets.

What does all of this mean? Well, it means that you don’t need to follow all of the value bets that appear as you can cherry pick the best bets or if you like (which is what I prefer personally), you can follow all of the bets with a staking plan whereby you stake each team as it appears. Hence, a bet that appears on system 8 is staked more heavily than a team that only appears on system 6 since the system 8 team appears on 6,7 and 8. You may not want to stake 3 times as much on it but simply, you know you are maximising your return if you stake more on it.

On the other hand, others get attracted to higher ROI’s and the less number of bets and would prefer to only follow bets that appear on system 8-22 for example, ignoring all the other value bets that appear on the other systems. With the systems, everyone can choose a strategy that suits their risk aversion but at the end of the day, you need the ratings to have an edge. If there is no edge, you will make a loss regardless of what system you play!

OK, so that’s a quick summary of the systems for those who weren’t aware of how they worked. The next question then is the one I set out answering, can variable staking increase the returns of the systems?

I’ll be honest and say that I’m from the school of thought that level staking works best but I do like to maximise my edge. Simple, I like to stake more on a team that appears on system 8 than a team that only appears on system 6 since I know the teams on system 8 have a bigger edge. Likewise, I’d be a fool to stake the same on a team that only appears on system 6 as one that appears on system 8-22.

However, this isn’t really answering the question that the commenter asked. That was around picking a system and playing variable staking on a system and comparing that to level staking.

I always find the best way to look at this is through an example. I’ll look at two examples. System 8 is the system I recommended everyone play this season at the outset as it was the one I had most confidence in. System 8-22 is the other one that many people have played and until the last 8 weeks, it was an amazing system with very high returns but it has gone off the rails recently.

At the start of this season for system 8, I suggested a bank of 35pts would be sufficient for this system. How has level staking compared to variable staking?

Well, level staking has produced a profit of 13.1pts and an ROI of 8.8%. A disappointing return considering it made a return of 20% in all the backtested and backfitted seasons. The return on capital (profit/bank) would be 37.4%. Again, very disappointing as I was hoping this system would be able to double the betting bank this season.

What would have happened if I had been playing variable staking? For this, I will assume daily compounding. Hence, I increase stakes every day by readjusting my bank at the end of the day. There are lots of different ways to do this (every week, every month etc.) but I’ll stick with the easiest one to track in Excel. I will start with a 35pt bank and play 1/35 of the bank on every bet this season. What does the return look like?

Well, on the 18th March, the bank reached a peak of 64pts but as at today, the bank would be at 46.1pts. This is a profit of 11.1pts this season. I would have staked 206pts this season and therefore, the ROI would be 5.4%. Therefore, a lower return than level staking.

How does system 8-22 look? Again, I suggested a 35pt bank and therefore, I’ll assume 1/35 stake on each bet at the start of every day.

Well, on Feruary 1st, the bank reached a peak of 91pts (a profit of 56pts amazingly) but as of today, the bank would be 65pts. A profit of 30pts this season. The stakes would have been 170pts, so the ROI would be 17.6%. Therefore, a lower return than level staking.

Clearly, this is only a brief look at variable staking and I could have picked on any system to show this but simply, why is it that variable staking isn’t beating level staking this season on my systems (assuming the other systems follow the same pattern)?

It’s simply the way the returns have been achieved this season. Due to the fact that the first half of the season was great and the second half has been poor, the bank grew steadily during the first half of the season with variable staking and dropped more quickly with the higher stakes being played during the second half of the season.

Obviously, if I had looked at this at Christmas, variable staking would have beaten level staking easily as the first half of the season was much better.

One thing that people need to realise though is that based on my previous 4 season’s results and backed up by this season’s results, there is a seasonality element that seems to affect the results. Before this season started, the best months for the systems have been September, October, November and December. The worst months have been January, February, March, April and May.

What has happened this season? The first 4 months created profits of 300pts. What has happened since Christmas? The systems have created a loss of 63pts.

Hence, variable staking (in the sense of increasing stakes as the season progresses or as the bank grows) could never be a way to maximise profits with my systems.

The systems have only had 6 losing months to date. May 2007, Jan 2008, March 2008, October 2008, February 2009, February 2011. April 2011 will be the 7th losing month in 5 seasons.

If you were looking for a variable staking plan and were much smarter than me, reducing stakes from Christmas may have been the way to go based on past seasons. Unfortunately, I didn’t heed this warning and neither did any others I know using the systems this season……

Overall then, I’m not a fan of variable staking as it assumes that each bet in a sequence has the same edge as the previous bet and you could argue due to the fact that you are increasing stakes, you should be looking for a greater edge with each next bet in the sequence. In reality, historical evidence as well as this season’s evidence points to the fact that increasing stakes as the season progresses and as your bank grows is not a way to increase profits. It could actually be a way to increase losses as we’ve seen this season!

In reality, I could look at DC or DNB this season and I would bet that it shows variable staking being better or as good as level staking in most cases. Again though, this is linked to the large number of draws after Christmas this season and nothing more than a short-term blip I hope!

At the end of the day, people can pick and choose whatever staking plan they want to play. I play my own staking plan and I’ll happily admit to the fact I’ve made lots of mistakes this season but this season was always going to be a trial season for me as well as any others following. I intend to do better next season……..

If anyone wants me to run some sort of staking plan on a system this season (or even for double chance or DNB), just leave a comment and I’ll take a look at it for you and post the results and compare them to level staking.

Weekend Bets

Below are the bets for this weekend. I'd be lying if I didn't say my enthusiasm for the footie is probably at all time low after the recent run but not long to go now until the season end.

Tomorrow centres on 3 teams and going by the way this month has gone, sure to be at least one draw in there I suspect! I can really do with 2 winners from the 3 games to reduce the losses from this month but I'm not holding out too much hope.

I'll get the results updated on Sunday hopefully as all the games take place tomorrow.

I've had a couple of comments about variable staking, so I'll do a post on this later today hopefully if time allows!

The Football Analyst Bets for 30th April

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Leyton Orient v Tranmere Tranmere 4.50 SJ
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 2 Oxford v Lincoln Oxford 2.15 WH
30/04/2011 Bsq Prem Barrow v Hayes Hayes 3.60 VC
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 Premeiership Blackburn v Bolton Bolton 4.00 VC
30/04/2011 Premeiership Wigan v Everton Everton 2.62 WH
30/04/2011 Championship Doncaster v Leicester Leicester 2.40 WH
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Leyton Orient v Tranmere Tranmere 4.50 SJ
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
30/04/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Macclesfield Gillingham 1.53 WH
30/04/2011 Bsq Prem Barrow v Hayes Hayes 3.60 VC
30/04/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.40 WH
30/04/2011 Bsq Prem Luton v Wrexham Luton 2.10 SJ
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 Premeiership Blackburn v Bolton Bolton 4.00 VC
30/04/2011 Championship Doncaster v Leicester Leicester 2.40 WH
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.40 WH
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 Bsq Prem Barrow v Hayes Hayes 3.60 VC
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC
30/04/2011 League 1 Leyton Orient v Tranmere Tranmere 4.50 SJ
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 3.00 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.75 VC

System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 2 Oxford v Lincoln Oxford 2.15
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 2.88
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.60
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.70 WH
Any 3 and all 4 = 5 Bets
System 17
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 Premeiership Blackburn v Bolton Bolton 4.00
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 2.88
30/04/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.40
30/04/2011 Championship Doncaster v Leicester Leicester 2.30
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.63 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 2.88
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.60
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.70 WH
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 2.88
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.60
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.70 WH
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 20
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 2.88
30/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Peterboro Peterboro 2.60
30/04/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Hearts Hearts 2.70 WH
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

Tuesday, 26 April 2011

Delusions of grandeur?

After I wrote my last post, I was thinking more at lunchtime about whether or not I was wrong to think I had something that worked earlier this season.

Was it delusions of grandeur or was I correct to think that I maybe had something that worked? It was quoted many times in the TFA forum that these systems were the best football systems anyone had ever seen as we made our way through the first half of the season and on 31/12/2010, I personally would have even went as far to say that this was the best gambling system I think I've ever seen.

I'm a pretty intelligent guy and I would like to think I wouldn't get sucked into something unless I had enough proof that it was working. I had results going back a long way, another 2 years results from 2007 and 2008 that were fairly safe to use with little backfitting but more importantly, I had 2 full season's of backtested results in 2009 and 2010 with no backfitting involved.

I also had 1,195 games this season that were further proof. In total, we're looking at about 14,000 games that were all pointing to the fact that I had built something pretty special with the footie.

The results at the end of December for this season were showing an ROI of 25% overall with some systems showing ROI's like I'd never seen before. DNB and DC weren't even captured in my results at that time but looking back now, the results would have been very poor compared to backing the teams to win. Covering the draw....why would I even dream of that concept?

Roll on 4 months and how the mighty have fallen.......



Did I fluke 4 months of good results? Was I deluded?

At the end of the day, if someone had offered me these results at the start of the season, I would have bitten their hand off. A full year's proofed results, a return of 8%+ and an amazing amount of learning from this season. Unfortunately, if someone had offered me these results at Christmas, I would have thought they were taking the P..........

The ship has sailed......

I think in a way, I'm a little bit glad that things have gone dramatically off the rails from Christmas as it means that there are no delusions of grandeur with me anymore when it comes to the football. At Christmas, I thought I could walk on water when it came to football betting considering how well I was doing and now I feel like I'm being washed up on the shore, cast adrift after being thrown off the ship called 'Profit'.

There are lots of ways to look at what has happened since Christmas. It has been truly awful and I can't quite explain how something that could work so well for 4 months live this season, as well as two full season's worth of backtesting could dramatically turn into the best draw system I've ever seen. If backing the draws, the systems have made a profit 308pts since Jan 1st 2011. This is from 1,552 games and an ROI of 19.85% has been achieved.

It's hard to understand why something like this can occur and I'm at a loss to explain it. In the preceding 41 months to Jan-11, there had only been 7 months where the draw % for the systems had been above 30%. If backing the draw in these games, you would have lost over 2,000pts from 13,000 games. It hardly looked like a way to make money based on past results.

In the 4 months this year, the draw % has been above 30% every month and is sitting at 34.6% after the weekend for 2011 as a whole.

Clearly, there are lots of ways to look at this. Do you ignore 41 month's past results and assume that the ratings have an inherent flaw in them and that going forward, it will become impossible to make a profit due to the draw?

Do you use the draw in your bets somewhere and play Asian Handicaps to get the draw on your side? Draw No Bet and Double Chance betting have done very well this season and have been fairly steady although at Christmas time, I wasn't even tracking DC or DNB this season as the returns were so far behind the traditional H/A betting returns!

I think it would be fairly easy to decide I've had enough of this and move onto something else but I'm not sure that's the right answer either. After all, I might have just developed the best draw system by accident the world has ever seen...... :(

I've discussed this a lot on the blog since Christmas as it was initially raised by a very intelligent chap called Chris in the TFA forum about the fact that he would prefer to cover the draw in some games to smooth his P&L. 4 months on, a lot of research and work by me, a few months of live results of tracking DNB/DC and I have to admit that I agree with him completely now. I think unless you have lived and breathed a run like I've been on, it's easy to say that covering the draw when you have an edge is just a way to reduce your margin and in the long-run, backing the teams to win is the way to maximise profits. However, experiencing this run, I know I need the draw on my side for my own sanity, if nothing else!

It's a similar situation I found with horseracing and win only v each-way betting. I would often play each-way on the majority of my bets and people would point out that a slightly better return could be achieved by win only. However, in the long-run, I found my returns from EW betting were fairly similar to win only and in terms of helping my mental state, it helped enormously to get a positive return from some bets that were pipped on the line.

Anyway, I think I'm coming to the same conclusion here with the football betting. If you can achieve a high level of return by covering the draw or backing the draw as well as your selection, why wouldn't you do it? So what if it isn't a 15% return with lots of ups and downs. I'd rather have a 10% return that is fairly flat than a 15% return that is all over the place every month.

Just on this point. Any of those reading the blog for a while will know I went back and looked at the returns of DNB and DC betting for my historical results. DNB seemed to do very well and DC was profitable but much less so. On Friday, I wanted to check how DNB and DC did at the time of kick-off compared to the odds I had saved in my results sheet. I noticed that something wasn't right as DNB was doing much better than DC in terms of the odds my results sheet said. Simply, there was an error in the sheet that was overstating DNB and understating DC returns historically. It doesn't make a huge difference to any conclusions I have drawn before (H/A is better than DNB and DNB is better than DC) but there is a bigger gap between H/A and DNB now and of course, a smaller gap between DNB and DC. Not ideal when you find a data issue that is your own doing but I'm not perfect!

So, now my waffling is over, what happened yesterday? Well, the same as what has happened most weeks in 2011. Far too many draws!

25 different games defined as value. 9 wins, 10 draws and 6 losses. 3 of the losses were actually 90 min goals against my teams, so it could have been 9,13,3 which would have been amazing. Still. another 10 draws in 25 games which is a 40% strike rate for draws. A loss of 3.21pts from the 25 games.

The systems went to town with the games that finished a draw and from 108 games, they hit 46 draws along with only 32 winners and 30 losers. When you hit 32 winners from 108 games, it isn't going to be pretty....

A loss of 34pts for the systems yesterday. Even DNB had a poor day with losses of 9.3pts but DC had a good day with profits of 8.9pts.

The multiple bets had another shocker of a day which is nothing new there in 2011 either.

With only Saturday's games to go, the systems are on course for their worst ever month. Considering Feb-11 holds that record at the moment, it hasn't been a good few months! The systems are 73pts down in April and they lost 66pts in February. In 2011, the systems are now 63pts down which considering they made 300pts from September to December this season, it is pretty hard to predict what would have happened in the second half of this season as I wrote my December review in early January. I sort of pre-empted a downturn but this is like something suggesting it will be windy before a hurricane hits! I would never have believed things could get as bad as this.

On a brighter note, although DNB has had losing months in Feb and April (so far), it is still up 48pts in 2011.

Lastly, but definitely not least, DC is having an OK month with 10pts profit this month and of course, is doing pretty well in 2011 with a profit of over 100pts and an ROI of 8% in 2011.

It will be fairly interesting to write my monthly review next week after the worst month the systems have ever had but maybe Saturday will come to the rescue and reduce the losses to below February's disaster.....I doubt it though!

Sunday, 24 April 2011

We'll see what happens

Shattered after spending all day on the footie but here's the bets for tomorrow. Not much more to say as the title says it all......


The Football Analyst Bets for 25th April

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 Championship Bristol City v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.38 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 Championship Burnley v Portsmouth Burnley 1.81 Pinnacle
25/04/2011 Championship Leicester v Watford Leicester 1.83 Ladbrokes
25/04/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
25/04/2011 Championship QPR v Hull QPR 1.75 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.50 WH
25/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Walsall Oldham 2.50 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Burton v Torquay Torquay 2.50 PP
25/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Southend Southend 3.00 PP
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Tote
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Altrincham Grimsby 1.83 SJ
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Rushden v Kidderminster Rushden 3.10 VC

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Championship Burnley v Portsmouth Burnley 1.81 Pinnacle
25/04/2011 Championship QPR v Hull QPR 1.75 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Walsall Oldham 2.50 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Burton v Torquay Torquay 2.50 PP
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Tote
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Altrincham Grimsby 1.83 SJ
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Rushden v Kidderminster Rushden 3.10 VC

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.50 VC
25/04/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
25/04/2011 Championship Preston v Cardiff Cardiff 2.15 Pinnacle
25/04/2011 Championship Scunthorpe v Millwall Millwall 2.40 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.50 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Bury Bury 3.20 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Southend Southend 3.00 PP
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Tote
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 SPL Hamilton v Aberdeen Aberdeen 2.63 Ladbrokes

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.50 VC
25/04/2011 Championship Scunthorpe v Millwall Millwall 2.40 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.50 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Bury Bury 3.20 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 SPL Hamilton v Aberdeen Aberdeen 2.63 Ladbrokes

System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 Championship Scunthorpe v Millwall Millwall 2.40 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 SPL Hamilton v Aberdeen Aberdeen 2.63 Ladbrokes

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Southend Southend 3.00 PP
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.50 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Tote

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.15 SJ
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.50 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 Blue Sq
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Tote

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.40 WH
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.70 Tote
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88 VC
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.60 B365

System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.62
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.50
25/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Walsall Oldham 2.50
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Tamworth Wrexham 1.57 Skybet
Any 3,4 and all 5 = 16 Bets

System 17 Bet 1
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.05
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.62
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88
25/04/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Bury Bury 3.05
25/04/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.50 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 17 Bet 2
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.38
25/04/2011 SPL Hamilton v Aberdeen Aberdeen 2.60
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.40
25/04/2011 Championship Scunthorpe v Millwall Millwall 2.25
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.50 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.05
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.62
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88
25/04/2011 SPL Hamilton v Aberdeen Aberdeen 2.60
25/04/2011 Championship Scunthorpe v Millwall Millwall 2.25 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 19 Bet 1
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.62
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.38
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Gateshead Gateshead 3.40
25/04/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Morecambe 2.30 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 19 Bet 2
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Gillingham Gillingham 2.75
25/04/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 3.50
25/04/2011 League 2 Wycombe v Crewe Crewe 5.00 Sky
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 20
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
25/04/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Man City Man City 2.05
25/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bristol Rovers Bournemouth 1.62
25/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.88
25/04/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Wimbledon Wimbledon 2.38
25/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Brentford Brentford 3.40 VC
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

Saturday, 23 April 2011

Unreal

A very quick post as I won’t get the results updated from this weekend until next week. I’ll be posting the bets for Monday tomorrow night or very early Monday morning as it’s a bit of a rush-job this weekend with so many games taking place in a short space of time.

I’ve just tallied up the scores on the doors for the last two days but I wouldn’t assume these are 100% correct until I fully go through the results sheets. Overall, I think it’s about a 10pt loss on the systems overall but that doesn’t tell half the story!

Friday was a shocker with 5 games played and no winners. 38pts lost for the systems. The Rotherham game was a real sickener as they were 2-0 up and trading 1.13 at half time. They let a goal slip in the second half and as tends to happen when things aren’t going your way, they let in an injury time equaliser. A swing of 35pts on the game and if they had held on, it was nearly a break-even day.

Today couldn’t have gone much worse than yesterday but it was another sickener of a day really. Charlton were the culprits this time. 2-0 up and cruising against a team with no confidence and little chance of getting back in the game. 2 sending offs in the space of 6 mins and with 25 minutes left, they had to try to hold on with 9 men. No such luck as they drew 2-2. A 25pt swing on that game.

So, instead of a decent profit on Rotherham and Charlton, it was substantial losses and a 60pt swing against me. Unreal.

As it turned out, Carlisle and Newport came to my rescue and both won today. Carlisle at 7/2 was the highlight although Newport at 7/4 weren’t far behind.

Overall, a profit of 28pts today and when you consider the 25pt swing with Charlton, it could have been much, much better.

I make it 10pts lost over the 2 days which after Friday, I would have taken.

15 games overall picked out, 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses. 40% strike rate on draws again. Unreal.

The systems picked out 79 bets. 22 wins, 29 losses and 28 draws. 35% strike rate on draws again. Unreal.

Hard to know what to make of the last 2 days. Nothing appeared to go for me again and yet, it was only a small loss. Hopefully I can get the rub of the green on Monday!

Friday, 22 April 2011

For future analysis

One thing I don't do enough is check how the odds I obtain on my bets compare with those available at the time of kick-off. Below are the odds for all my bets this weekend as at 3pm on Friday.

I'm not going to pay much attention to it at the moment but once we get past the next week or so, this sort of analysis is something I want to spend more time looking at.

I don't have time to record all the DNB/DC odds so I've just used the draw odds and the selection odds to give me the Asian Handicap odds. It will overstate the profits a little compared to what I'm using in my results but I'll not worry too much about it.

Thursday, 21 April 2011

Busy weekend

Well, the next few weeks are likely to determine whether this season ends up highly profitable or slightly profitable for me personally. In addition, it has a big impact on any future plans for the football as well I suspect, so a lot is riding on the next few weeks, starting from this weekend.

15 different games thrown up this weekend as value according to my ratings. However, quite a few are very strong bets, so the same teams appear on a number of systems.

These busy days tend to either be very profitable or heavily loss making going by what I've seen this season. We'll see what happens.


The Football Analyst Bets for 22nd & 23rd April

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Coventry v Scunthorpe Coventry 1.80 B365
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
22/04/2011 Championship Watford v Barnsley Barnsley 4.33 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.50 Tote
23/04/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 4.00 VC

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes

System 9
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 Championship Derby v Burnley Burnley 2.88 VC
23/04/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Swansea Swansea 2.50 Boyles
22/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Oldham Oldham 4.50 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Stoke Aston Villa 1.89 Pinnacle
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.50 Tote
23/04/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 4.00 VC

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 Championship Derby v Burnley Burnley 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Oldham Oldham 4.50 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.50 Tote

System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62 VC
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.50 Tote
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 4.00 VC

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.50 Tote
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62 VC
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 Corals
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 Ladbrokes

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 Ladbrokes

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.40 Betfred
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.88 VC
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88 WH

System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.10
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.80
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 WH
Any 3 and all 4 = 5 Bets
System 17 Bet 1
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 League 1 Exeter v Oldham Oldham 4.00
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.80
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.10
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.40 WH
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 17 Bet 2
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.10
23/04/2011 Championship Derby v Burnley Burnley 2.88
23/04/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Carlisle Carlisle 4.33 VC
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.10
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.80
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 WH
Any 3 and all 4 = 5 Bets

System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.80
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.10
23/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Bradford Accrington 1.62
23/04/2011 Bsq Prem Altrincham v Newport Newport 2.75 WH
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 20
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Fleetwood Fleetwood 2.88
22/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Rotherham Rotherham 2.80
22/04/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Leicester Leicester 3.10
23/04/2011 Premiership Blackpool v Newcastle Newcastle 2.40
23/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Charlton Charlton 3.20 WH
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

Wednesday, 20 April 2011

2 from 4

Just a quick post with an update of how last night went. I said this in the TFA forum this morning but in one sense, last night was meaningless. The weakest bets from my ratings are the ones that only appear on system 21 and therefore, no one could ever follow these with much confidence.

Even so, it was still nice to see a winning night for the systems in advance of a very busy weekend period. The next week or so will make or break this month and after a nightmare start this month, the systems are fighting back a little.

2 wins, a draw and one loser last night but a profit of 3.4pts to the prices I advised. For info, DNB was a profit of 2.4pts and DC was a profit of 1.2pts. Better could have been achieved at the start of the game across the piece last night but I record the prices I take at a point in time. Whether they drift or contract in price isn't really relevant to me as I'm not trading.

The next week or so is fairly busy for me with the footie but I'll find the time to send out the bets as usual and post them up here afterwards. I'll do the Friday/Saturday/Sunday games on Thursday and then the Monday/Tues games on Sunday. I'll post up the bets at night.

There is a chance I'll struggle on Sunday night to post them as I'm out all day Sunday, so it might fall into Monday morning first thing for Monday's bets.

Looking forward to the next week or so as with the Bank Holiday and then next weekend too, there are still a lot of games to be played in April. Hence, this month could still go either way I suspect and I can badly do with a decent end to the month after the start!

Be back later this week then with the bets for the weekend.

Monday, 18 April 2011

Midweek Bets

Not too much action this midweek with only 4 marginal bets. All 4 bets are decent prices away from home, so if two can win, a profit will be achieved.

Keeping this short tonight as I've something to do for work for tomorrow.

The Football Analyst Bets for 19th April

System 6
None

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 9
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
19/04/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Notts County Notts County 3.40 SJ
19/04/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.16 Pinnacle
19/04/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Darlington Darlington 4.00 Corals
19/04/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes v Gateshead Gateshead 3.30 B365

System 22
None

System 23
None

System 6-21
None

System 6-22
None

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 16
None

System 17
None

System 18
None

System 19
None

System 20
None

Sunday, 17 April 2011

Season's Results to 17th April

Just a quick post on the season’s results to date. Apologies to the anonymous poster who asked me yesterday for these results. I find it hard at times to read anonymous comments and decide whether it is being written by someone who has a genuine question to ask or whether it is some idiot trying to wind me up.

Being honest, the only reason I don’t look at the season’s results more often on here is because I tend to judge the systems on a monthly basis and therefore, my monthly reviews tend to cover everything I want to say about the systems. In addition, I tend to look at my own P&L on a monthly basis and always have done for a while, so I tend to not care too much about the season’s results so far.

Anyway, for those interested in the results on all the single bet systems this season, here are the results.



The returns have taken a massive hit in 2011 but then again, it has been a redistribution of profits between the traditional H/A betting and Draw No Bet betting. The number of draws after Christmas has meant it has been very difficult to make money backing each of the selections to win but by covering the draw, things have been OK after Christmas. Unfortunately, I didn’t think of this before it happened, so no one has been covering the draw (myself included!)

At the end of the day, I believe an ROI of 10% or so on football is highly acceptable and this is being achieved on all the systems from 6-21 to 8-22 and it is also being achieved on system 8 and system 22.

Systems 6,7 and 21 have lower ROI’s but they’ve all won an OK number of points I think, so although they have been disappointing in the main, it isn’t a disaster.

System 9 and system 23 are the two most selective systems and both are basically breaking even this season which is disappointing.

Overall, from a sample of 2,556 bets, the systems have made a return of 10.8%.

Looking at Draw No Bets, many of the systems have beaten the returns from traditional H/A betting. Systems 6,7,8,9,21,22 and 23 have done better with covering the draw rather than backing H/A outright. Systems 6-21 and 6-22 also have this characteristic.

Interestingly, systems 7-21,7-22,8-21 and 8-22 have done slightly better with traditional H/A betting than DNB but these are the strongest systems I have historically, so maybe this isn’t too surprising.

Overall though, DNB has produced a profit of 321pts and an ROI of 12.6%.

I don’t want to look at DC betting too much but a return of 6% has still been achieved which isn’t bad considering it hasn’t been a great season!

Looking forward to next season, I’ll be dropping system 9 and system 23 as they don’t produce enough bets each season for them to be viable to follow.

By dropping these systems, it will mean I’m left with 11 systems that will all have enough bets each season for any of them to be followed as a standalone system if someone only wants to follow one system for example.

I'm still in two minds about the systems 16-20. These are multiple bet systems which basically use the bets on the single bet systems to form multiple bets. The backtested results looked very good but only two of the 5 systems are making profits this season. 3 of the systems are losing.

Here's the results for this season:



Looking at the results, it doesn’t look too bad as it won’t take much for these systems to turn around and if following all the multiple bet systems, it has been an OK season but compared to the past seasons, it has been very poor. Obviously, this is linked to the fact that the single bet systems have had a poor season.

I’m not sure what I’ll do about these systems next season. I might keep one going or two going but drop the others.

A few people have sent me emails enquiring about plans for next season. I’m still unclear about what I’m doing next season but I’ve already got a long list of things I need to do this summer. A few highlights are:

1). I’ll be rebuilding the algorithm on systems 21-23. It has a few flaws in it I think and they’ve shone through as the season has progressed. I know what I think I need to do to fix them but it will take a good few hours to rebuild this. Of course, the fundamental variable won’t change in the algorithm but I’ll be adjusting the weightings. Hence, it won’t invalidate the historical results at all but it should improve the future results I hope!

2). I’ll be tweaking the algorithm on systems 6-9. This will be a tiny change but I now have 3 season’s results that involve no backfitting, so I want to try to analyse the results and see what works and what doesn’t work. I won’t change it too much but there are one or two things I want to analyse in more depth, so if I find anything, I might change a couple of weightings in the model.

3). I’m seriously thinking of building a new algorithm. I’m coming around to the idea of Draw No Bets and I’m thinking it would be quite interesting to look at building an algorithm to maximise DNB profits. This would change the type of teams I’d be backing as you could have teams at 4/1+ away from home that aren’t worth following as they draw too many games for them to be profitable but by doing them DNB, they could be worth following. It takes me around 4 weeks work to build an algorithm using backfitting of data and then backtesting the results for the other data I have. If I do go ahead and do this, I would probably not test it live next season but behind closed doors. I’d get it proofed but not post the results as I’m always wary of giving out bets that aren’t proven to be profitable. This season was a one-off but next season, I want judged on the systems that are proven from this season. Not a new set of systems!

4). I want to look at maybe building a system to pick out the best 4 or 5 bets each weekend to bet on. This is a unique idea but it would probably involve a mixture of DNB’s, DC’s and traditional H/A bets. It might take into account things like seasonality, variable staking and anything else I can think of! Not sure if I have the time or inclination to do this as it would mean I end up getting judged on this one system I suspect and there would be no guarantee it beats my other systems!

That’s the 4 main things I want to look at this summer but as always, it depends on how much time I can set aside. With no football taking place and with a fair bit of time to take off work, I reckon I can do a fair bit this summer in time for next season.

Apologies if it feels like I'm not giving more away about my plans next season but I honestly haven't made up my mind yet what I'll do. I'll no doubt post it on here when I decide.

Saturday, 16 April 2011

Such a thin line.........

One thing that has become clear to me this season has been the thin line between success and failure when you are betting on the football.

This afternoon at 4.40pm, I was looking at a small profit on the footie and given the way the current run had been going, a small profit wasn’t a disaster. I was again looking at the number of draws and thinking to myself, “this can’t continue, can it?” I said in my last post that something had to give this weekend and thankfully, a late goal in the Villa game and a late goal in the Huddersfield game turned both these games from draws into away wins.

I was left waiting on Hearts to score a winner for a multiple bet to come in but I was maybe looking for too much there with another late goal.

Overall, it was a decent enough day on the footie and it is long overdue this month.

In total, there were 16 games where a team represented value. I ended up with 7 wins, 5 losses and 4 draws. 25% strike rate is the long-term average for draws and therefore, I can’t complain. It was a profit of 3.2pts which is an ROI of 20%.

The systems had 38 bets which returned 27 wins, 7 losses and only 4 draws. Much more like it thankfully and a draw rate of only 10.5% on the systems. This brings the overall draw rate down to 35% for this month which is still the second highest month ever (behind February 2011). Hopefully the next few weeks can see the draw % fall further which will allow the systems to win back some of the losses from earlier this month.

For the record, the 38 system bets made a profit of 29pts today for an ROI of 76%.

Draw No Bets made a profit of 16pts today on the systems and Double Chance made a profit of 5.5pts.

After this weekend, the systems remain 32pts down so far this month. There is still a fair bit to go this month, so we’ll see if they can possibly get somewhere back to break-even on the month. Given they lost 55pts on the first day this month, -30pts isn’t a disaster at the moment!

Interestingly, DNB is down 6.5pts this month now (was -29pts earlier this month) and DC is down 9.7pts now (was -26pts earlier this month). Both are fighting back well and for next season’s possible strategy, I really hope to see DNB continue on the road to recovery this month. DNB has only had 5 losing months in 44 past months, so I would like to see it make another profit this month after a disaster of a start to this month!

There seemed a lot of goals about today which definitely helped things turn in my favour and I hope this trend can continue over the next few weeks. I definitely feel that when there are goals around, it helps the profitability of my ratings in the long-term.

I’ll be back in midweek as there are 12 games and then there is obviously the busy weekend next week with it being the Bank Holiday, so there will be plenty of action there too I think.

I'll do a post in midweek with an update of the season totals on the systems. I've had a few comments asking and two are from people who are accusing me of not posting the season results as they are now so poor. Admittedly, I don't post the season results too often but they are all on here if people want to look for them themselves! I'll post them in midweek......

Friday, 15 April 2011

Weekend Bets

A complete lack of decent value bets this weekend. Maybe that's a good thing given the current run of form! Everton and Huddersfield are the strongest value bets thrown up on each algorithm but I'm not fond of either as a bet.

I'll be back on Sunday with how the weekend has went.

The Football Analyst Bets for 16th April

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Blackburn Everton 1.73 WH
16/04/2011 Premiership West Ham v Aston Villa Aston Villa 3.36 Pinnacle
16/04/2011 Championship Bristol City v Ipswich Ipswich 3.10 Ladbrokes
16/04/2011 Championship Burnley v Swansea Swansea 2.70 Tote
16/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.80 WH
16/04/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Hartlepool Hartlepool 4.33 Ladbrokes
16/04/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 Ladbrokes

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Blackburn Everton 1.73 WH

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Blackburn Everton 1.73 WH

System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Blackburn Everton 1.73 WH

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Blackburn Everton 1.73 WH
16/04/2011 Premiership West Ham v Aston Villa Aston Villa 3.36 Pinnacle
16/04/2011 Championship Bristol City v Ipswich Ipswich 3.10 Ladbrokes
16/04/2011 Championship Reading v Leicester Leicester 4.00 VC
16/04/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 2.25 WH
16/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.80 WH
16/04/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 Ladbrokes
16/04/2011 League 1 Walsall v Brighton Brighton 2.20 Blue Sq
16/04/2011 League 2 Accrington v Oxford Accrington 2.10 Corals
16/04/2011 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Burton 2.20 Skybet
16/04/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Macclesfield Chesterfield 1.57 Corals
16/04/2011 League 2 Torquay v Port Vale Torquay 1.83 Ladbrokes
16/04/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes v Darlington Darlington 2.88 Blue Sq
16/04/2011 SPL Inverness v Hearts Hearts 2.30 Blue Sq

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Premiership West Ham v Aston Villa Aston Villa 3.36 Pinnacle
16/04/2011 Championship Bristol City v Ipswich Ipswich 3.10 Ladbrokes
16/04/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 2.25 WH
16/04/2011 SPL Inverness v Hearts Hearts 2.30 Blue Sq

System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 2.25 WH

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Championship Bristol City v Ipswich Ipswich 3.10 Ladbrokes
16/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Blackburn Everton 1.73 WH
16/04/2011 League 1 Notts County v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.80 WH
16/04/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 Ladbrokes
16/04/2011 Premiership West Ham v Aston Villa Aston Villa 3.36 Pinnacle

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Premiership West Ham v Aston Villa Aston Villa 3.36 Pinnacle
16/04/2011 Championship Bristol City v Ipswich Ipswich 3.10 Ladbrokes

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Blackburn Everton 1.73 WH

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Premiership Everton v Blackburn Everton 1.73 WH

System 8-22
None

System 16
None

System 17
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
16/04/2011 Premiership West Ham v Aston Villa Aston Villa 3.30
16/04/2011 Championship Bristol City v Ipswich Ipswich 2.88
16/04/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 2.25
16/04/2011 SPL Inverness v Hearts Hearts 2.20 VC
Any 2,3 and all 4 = 11 Bets

System 18
None

System 19
None

System 20
None

Thursday, 14 April 2011

Statistical Freak?

One point I should make before people start reading is that with any form of statistical analysis, you need as many data points as possible. That's not the same as saying you can't draw meaningful conclusions with a smaller sample of data but simply, you need to be careful hat you don't get sucked in to believing the conclusions too much as they will never be statistically significant if the sample is small.

One thing I've looked at briefly before (after February's disaster) was the draws that the systems hit on a monthly basis.

In general, the systems pick out on average 325 games per month. We can then look at the number of home wins, away wins and draws that appear each month. If I convert these numbers to percentages, we get the % number of home/away/draws that occur per month.

This is shown in the table below.



Now, even just looking at this table with no statistical analysis at all, we can see a few things quite quickly.

On average, there are more home wins a month than away wins and draws. Over the period of data (over 14,300 games), there have been 41% home wins, 34% away wins and 25% draws.

In addition, without being too smart, you can that there is a range where the percentage of each result bobs around on a monthly basis. Looking quickly, I'd say homes bob around between 35% and 50%, draws bob around 20% and 30% and aways bob around between 25% and 35%.

However, with just a little bit of introductory statistics, we can analyse the results a little more scientifically.

We have 45 discreet months here which means we have 45 data points for Homes,Aways and Draws. By looking at the standard deviation of each sample, we'll be able to put a confidence level on how likely it is that the % stays within a range.

Simply, once you know the St Dev of a sample, you know that there is a 10% chance that any data point can lie outside the range if the range is defined as within 1.645 St Devs of the mean. Likewise, increasing this to 1.96 St Devs, there is a 5% chance a point can lie outwith the range. Lastly, by using 2.576 St Devs, there is a 1% chance that a data point can lie outwith the range.

Turning this on its head then, you can be 90%,95% or 99% sure that any data point will within the chosen range.

I'm not really too interested in what is happening with Homes/Aways as they aren't the issue at the moment. Let's look at the draws to begin with.



I have highlighted blue any months where the draw % falls outwith the 90% boundary. Over a sample of 45 points, you'd expect this to happen between 4 and 5 times. It has happened 4 times in total.

Looking closer though, it doesn't take a statistical expert to see the draw % in the last few months on these systems.

Jan-11 32.3%
Feb-11 38.5%
Mar-11 30.1%
Apr-11 41.7%

The first thing to point out is that February 2011 is the worst month ever for draws and I quoted on here that I believed that could only happen once every two seasons or so. The probability of it happening looking at the data is somewhere between 1% and 5% although going by the fact the 95% confidence interval stops at 38.4%, the probability of it happening is very close to 5%.

5% of the time is once every 20 months which based on my data, is twice in nearly 5 seasons. Hence, February was a blip that I didn't think could be repeated.

Although we are only half way through April, the draw % is sitting at 41.7%. Considering the 99% confidence interval stops at 42.6% and the 95% interval stops at 38.4%, we are talking between a 1% and 2% chance of this happening.

Now, I don't want to get too drawn into statistical probabilities as this is gambling after all and nothing is ever a sure fire winner but I will be astounded if the draw % for April ends up at 41.7%. That's basically saying that over 2 in 5 games finish draws. Considering the average draw odds are much larger than 6/4, then anyone backing the draw in April would be raking it in. February made over 100pts backing the draw and April would be on course to beat that!

In 2011, there have been 1,323 games picked out by the systems and 459 have resulted in draws. This is 34.5% of the games finishing draws! Looking back, I can't see a run like this at any time within my data and therefore, what we are witnessing is a statistical freak that can't continue.

Before I conclude, let's look at the away win % in April. This is down at 16.7%. The worst month ever for Aways was a win % of 18.8%. This month is therefore 12% worse (or 2.1% pts) than any other month EVER for away wins on the systems. Considering most of my selections are away bets, then this means my systems have to lose this month.

Overall then, what does all the above mean?

Well, I reckon we are experiencing a freak occurrence with draws since Christmas and in particular, February was the worst month ever experienced for my systems and the worst month ever for the % of draws. April is now ahead of February although, we still have the second half of the month to go. The draw % has to drop (100/1 to not drop I think!) this month and hopefully, the away bets % will increase as the draws reduce and things will get back to more like the normal.

The great thing about seeing this up close during this season is that I'll be more mentally prepared for this in future I think. I know the boundaries of what can happen and I also know that quite often, the results achieved will be outside the boundaries but due to the fact I've seen it this season, it won't surprise me when it happens again.

Will things ever get back to the norm? We'll see what this weekend brings........

Painful......

Having worked on this football project for 16 months now, it is actually quite painful to watch what is happening at the moment. After 14,000 historical games, you sort of assume that you've seen everything that can possibly happen to the systems but unfortunately, that appears to not be the case.

This midweek was another amazing turn of events and this month is now pushing the boundaries of being another statistical freak. More on this later today as I've been looking at the draw again!

We'll deal with the update of results in this post and worry about trying to interpret the results later.

Simply, 5 midweek games, 1 winner and 4 losers for the systems. A loss of 1pt as the winner was Coventry at 3/1. Looking in slightly more depth, 1 winner, 3 draws and 1 loser in total.

The single bet systems turned this 1pt loss into 12pt loss. 32 bets, 5 winners at 3/1 and 27 losers.

Breaking this down though, 5 winners, 24 draws and 3 losses. 24 draws in 32 games. You really couldn't make this up. :(

The 3 big games in midweek all finished 1-1.

You can do the sums yourself at a high level but DNB was profitable and DC was also profitable this midweek. Hard to not be profitable with only 3 losses in 32 games!

I'm sick to death of writing about the draw and I'm sure readers of the blog are sick of hearing about it but quite simply, when things like this happen, the only way I know to rationalise it is to go back to the data and try to understand it further.

Hence, my next post will be another post on the draw.........

Here's the mess from midweek.

Monday, 11 April 2011

Midweek Bets

Below are the bets for the midweek. Fairly obvious games with Swansea, Crawley and Rushden all standing out which isn't surprising given their recent form and the opposition they are up against.

Fingers crossed it's a good midweek

The Football Analyst Bets for 12th/13th April

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
12/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Hull Swansea 1.73 General
12/04/2011 League 1 Walsall v Brentford Brentford 3.17 Pinnacle
12/04/2011 Bsq Prem Crawley v Luton Crawley 2.13 Pinnacle
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Hull Swansea 1.73 General
12/04/2011 Bsq Prem Crawley v Luton Crawley 2.13 Pinnacle
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Hull Swansea 1.73 General
12/04/2011 Bsq Prem Crawley v Luton Crawley 2.13 Pinnacle
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Hull Swansea 1.73 General
12/04/2011 Bsq Prem Crawley v Luton Crawley 2.13 Pinnacle

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
12/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Hull Swansea 1.73 General
12/04/2011 League 1 Walsall v Brentford Brentford 3.17 Pinnacle
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
12/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Hull Swansea 1.73 General
12/04/2011 League 1 Walsall v Brentford Brentford 3.17 Pinnacle
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Coventry Coventry 4.00 Ladbrokes
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Hull Swansea 1.73 General
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Hull Swansea 1.73 General
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.10 Corals

System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Hull Swansea 1.73
12/04/2011 Championship Leicester v C Palace Leicester 1.53
12/04/2011 Bsq Prem Crawley v Luton Crawley 2.10
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.00 General
Any 3 and all 4 = 5 Bets

System 17
None

System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
12/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Hull Swansea 1.73
12/04/2011 Bsq Prem Crawley v Luton Crawley 2.10
13/04/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Rushden Rushden 3.00 General
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 19
None

System 20
None

Backing the draw?

You can tell I've had a little bit of spare time today!

Greg asked another question which I thought was quite interesting. The crux of his query was, how much profit/loss would you make from backing the draw in all these games that are defined as value?

My initial reply is in the comments section to his question but simply, I expect it to be loss making as if there is an edge backing the team I think is value, there can't be an edge backing the draw as well! Clearly, in a short-term period, you can make money backing the draw and I thought this was probably the case over the recent period.

Now I've had time to look at it and analyse it a little, the recent results are worth highlighting.

Firstly, backing the draw isn't a way to make money based on my ratings. That isn't to say that they can't be used to make money as I could backfit my data to try to maximise the draw returns but based on the fittings at the moment, you will lose if you solely back the draw.

However, the results from this season are different to the preceding years. In the first half of this season, things were in line with the long-term and backing the draw would have lost you 185pts from September to December. Nothing too unusual there.

In the period from 1st January to 11th April (today!), you would have made a profit of 188pts!

Looking back, I can't see a spell like this one during the past 4 and a bit seasons. I'm fed up going on about the draw and clearly, this all just fits in with the DNB analysis and so on as it's all the same data just cut a different way but before making any decisions about how I use the systems next season, it's important that I don't get too caught up with what has happened in the last few months. Yeah, it hasn't been pretty and the systems have made no profits in 2011 but then again, it's unlikely this run is going to continue for much longer based on the previous 13,000 bets the systems have had. Either that or I've developed a system to help me win the pools!

Here's the numbers for those geeky readers.

Replies to a couple of comments

I had two interesting comments over the weekend regarding the results on here. As I said in my earlier post today, I've deleted the comments by accident as they were in amongst some moronic anonymous comments but I did read both comments!

The first comment asked me what the returns would have been this season had I just suggested backing every team that is value. I've graphed the P&L over the season for the traditional H/A betting, DNB bets and DC bets.



There have been 672 games that had a team that is described as value. By value, I mean where the odds at the time of betting are greater than the % chance that they will win the game according to my ratings.

The profit for traditional H/A betting is 15pts. This gives a return on investment of 2.2%.

The profit for DNB betting is 33pts. This gives a return on investment of 4.9%.

DC betting is break-even.

Clearly, these results are slightly disappointing at face value but please remember that this includes all value bets. Hence, the purpose is to simply create a profit or at least, break-even. As soon as I start to filter these bets, I can increase the profits substantially by only playing the higher value bets.

If I was being judged on this measure this season, I would have had a filter in place to only pick out value bets once a set criteria has been met. Hence, I would drop all low value bets (system 6 and system 21) and only play higher value bets as it would reduce the number of bets and increase the returns. I'm not being judged on my ratings though, I'm being judged on my systems and therefore, I don't need to worry too much about this aspect.

All the above shows is that you can't just back every team that appears as value, regardless of how much value you think is achieved by backing the team. If you have a team with 50% value appearing on system 8 and you have a team with 10% value appearing on system 6, then clearly, you would want system 8 bets to be better than system 6! Hence, that's what the systems do.

The other thing worth considering is the shape of the graph. H/A betting was above DNB until Christmas (roughly 400 bets) but since then, DNB has kept going up and H/A betting has been in freefall. This is driven by the number of draws that have been appearing in the value bets since Christmas.

In the first half of the season, there were 85 draws in 339 bets. A draw % of 25% which just so happens to be the long-term % for draws in the ratings.

From Christmas, 333 bets and 107 draws. A draw % of 32%. The extra 22 draws or so that you wouldn't expect have eaten away our margin with the ratings after Christmas when backing H/A. If you are covering the draw, as the graph shows, you are still able to make money after Christmas.

Anyway, I hope that answers the question that was posed.

The second comment asked for a breakdown of pts won on each system this season by month. I'll keep it nice and simple and not worry about ROI etc. as it wasn't asked for. The table below has all the info you require by month. I've also shown the cumulative view of the season as it tells the story pretty well I think of how the systems have done this season!

Weekend Update

Before I get on with the results, a quick comment re. a few anonymous comments this weekend.

I've had a couple of anonymous comments from morons over the weekend who clearly can't count up if a system makes a profit or a loss as they appeared to be suggesting it had been another shocking weekend on the footie. I don' mind people posting rubbish if it's been a bad weekend but when the systems make a profit on the weekend, please give them a break!

Another weekend on the footie and yet again, I'm left scratching my head about what exactly is going on with the footie.

The bare facts are 17 games, 9 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses. Resulted in a profit of 3.6pts if backing each game or a return on investment of 21%. The systems took these 17 games and turned it into a profit of 8pts from 58 games. ROI was 13.8%.

As I've been saying recently, I'm tracking A(0) and A(0.5) for my bets also. For those who prefer the more traditional terminology, it's DNB (Draw No Bet) and Double Chance (Win/Draw or +0.5 handicap)

The DNB produced a profit of 3.4pts for an ROI of 20% from the 17 games and DC was a profit of 2.5pts (14.7% ROI).

Interestingly, when you look at how DNB and DC did across all systems, the systems turned the profits from the 17 games into losses. DNB made a loss of 1pt from the 58 games and DC made a loss of 8.5pts across the systems!

Quite frightening the damage the systems caused at the weekend but again, it was caused by a few well picked teams losing. Yeovil as I said on Thursday were picked by every system and they lost away at Hartlepool. Bournemouth were also well fancied and they got turned over at home. Hence, when two of the most picked teams lose, then it is going to suppress the returns of the systems massively.

This is again reflected in the multiple bet systems where they all suffered losses (as usual!) and continue on a massive downward spiral.

It's hard to know what is going on at the moment with the football. All of the systems are really struggling since Christmas and as the season starts drawing to a close, I can't see it getting much easier.

We've discussed the seasonality that comes with football betting in the TFA forum a few times (mostly to do with other tipsters who appear to struggle after Christmas) and I'm afraid that these systems might well get labelled with the same accusation. It's hard to understand why they've not performed over the last few months but I'll look into this more during the Summer.

I've got two comments to answer from weekend posts but unfortunately, I deleted the comments as they were in amongst anonymous comments and I accidentally ticked them all to be deleted. One was asking for the returns of backing every team that appears as value and another one was asking for the pts profit by for each system by calendar month this season. I did mean to publish them but when the comments are anonymous, I tend to delete them more often that not!

I'll answer both of these later today hopefully as it won't take me long.

Thursday, 7 April 2011

Weekend Bets

Another busy weekend with 17 different games this weekend.

One game stands out this weekend as a clear value bet and appears on every system which doesn't happen too often. Yeovil are the team and at 2/1, they are clear value against Hartlepool based on the recent form of both teams.

I've had a quick look at Fink Tank out of curiosity and they make Yeovil more likely to win this game than Hartlepool. Hence, 2/1 seems decent and won't last I suspect.

Looking quickly, Hartlepool have lost their last couple of games at home and have no wins in their last 4. They drew 1-1 last time out to stop the rot but looking at the stats, Swindon dominated the game with more than twice the number of shots on goal.

On the other hand, Yeovil have won 3 of their last 4 games and in the defeat, they easily beat Bristol Rovers on shots but just couldn't score. They've won their last 2 away games, scoring 8 goals and beating teams in the top half of the table.

In their last 6 away games at bottom half sides, they've won 3, drew 2 and lost 1.

It should be fairly close between these two but my ratings favour Yeovil. Hence, at 2/1, it's an obvious value pick which explains why it appears on so many systems.

I think it's interesting when I look at some games and why the ratings have found value but I try my best to not look as being honest, I struggle to justify most of the bets!

The Football Analyst Bets for 8th-10th April

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
08/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 2.40 Tote
09/04/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 3.44 Pinnacle
09/04/2011 Championship Ipswich v C Palace Ipswich 1.82 Pinnacle
09/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Norwich Swansea 2.25 SJ
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Exeter Exeter 3.00 Blue Sq
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Charlton Oldham 2.50 SJ
09/04/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.50 Tote
09/04/2011 Premiership Bolton v West Ham Bolton 2.25 VC
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
09/04/2011 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Histon Gateshead 1.57 WH
10/04/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Newcastle Newcastle 4.72 Pinnacle

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
08/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 2.40 Tote
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
10/04/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Newcastle Newcastle 4.72 Pinnacle

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes

System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Norwich Swansea 2.25 SJ
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Exeter Exeter 3.00 Blue Sq
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.50 Tote
09/04/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Gillingham Gillingham 2.25 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Bury Bury 2.50 Corals
09/04/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Southend Port Vale 2.05 WH
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals

System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Exeter Exeter 3.00 Blue Sq
09/04/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.50 Tote
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Norwich Swansea 2.25 SJ
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes


System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes

System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 2.75
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.73
09/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Charlton Oldham 2.50
09/04/2011 Premiership Bolton v West Ham Bolton 2.25 Corals
Any 3,4 and all 5 = 16 Bets
System 17
None

System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 2.75
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.73 Corals
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 2.75
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.73 Corals
Any 2,3 and all 4 = 11 Bets

System 20
None