Saturday, 31 March 2012

Best Performance Ever?

I find it difficult to judge certain sets of fixtures. Knowing that a large percentage of my followers (and blog supporters) follow systems 7-21 to 8-22, it’s hard to get overly excited about a day like today when Wigan (who won) were the only team to appear on any of these 4 systems. They only appeared on 7-21 and 8-21. In case you wondered, they needed to be 2.75 to appear on system 22 as I told others who asked me.

Like I’ve always done on this blog since day one, I’ll judge the systems and each day on the performance of all systems as at the end of the day, I’m running 20 systems this season and I want all 20 systems to make a profit.

Well, for the first time ever since the systems went live, I’ve smashed the 100pts profit total in a single day. :) It’s actually a profit of 99pts over the weekend but it is split -12pts on Friday and +111pts this afternoon. When you consider 2 of the systems had no bets and 2 of them only had Wigan, then that implies the remaining 16 systems made a profit of around 107pts this afternoon. That’s an average of 6.7pts per system which has to go down as possibly the best performance I’ve ever seen from these systems live. I’ve previously seen systems 7-21 to 8-22 produce amazing results in a day too but it feels amazing when so many systems do it at once on the same day!

Even though I’m forever being told that these systems are possibly the best football systems most people have ever seen, it still astounds me that they can produce a day like today after everything that has gone before. Sounds weird to say that they still surprise me at times considering I built them all and own the ratings that sit behind the systems but seriously, how good are my ratings and my systems?

Onto the weekend’s results.

Algorithm one had 19 bets. 7 winners, 6 draws and 6 losers. A profit of 3.87pts for H/A betting and a profit of 3.32pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 13 bets. 7 winners, 3 draws and 3 losers. A profit of 13.62pts for H/A betting and a profit of 9.28pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 22 bets. 8winners, 6 draws and 8 losers. A profit of 9.56pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.78pts for DNB betting.

A great weekend for each algorithm but special mention to algorithm two. To hit 7 winners from 13 when the average odds were 3.87 is a truly exceptional performance.

As you would expect, this translated into a great weekend for the systems.

The established systems made a profit of 36.5pts for H/A betting and a profit of 23.9pts for DNB betting.

The new systems made a profit of 62.6pts for H/A betting and a profit of 48.2pts.

Hard to say much more about this weekend than post these results.

I’ll get on with doing the monthly review and getting the monthly results posted. Will probably be tomorrow morning when it appears on here.



Friday, 30 March 2012

Scariest weekend of the season?

It's not such a big weekend this season in terms of the number of bets (I've had busier weekends!) but in terms of the average odds, this weekend is scary.

I said this in my email last night but we've clearly reached that tipping point of the season when many teams have nothing to play for. My ratings can't factor this in whereas the bookmakers can do and therefore, we end up backing teams away from home at big odds with nothing to play for. Not exactly ideal.

Anyway, we'll see what happens over the next few weeks. Can't be any worse than last season as the systems encountered their worst run ever at this time!

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 30th-31st March

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Barrow Barrow 5.55 4.07
31/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Kidderminster Kidderminster 3.60 2.62
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
31/03/2012 Championship Hull v Coventry Coventry 5.45 3.90
31/03/2012 League 1 Bournemouth v Yeovil Yeovil 4.44 3.21
31/03/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19
31/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Wycombe Wycombe 5.34 3.94
30/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Torquay Barnet 3.20 2.29
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Bradford Bradford 3.64 2.57
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
31/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Hereford Rotherham 1.80 1.33
30/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.43
31/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 8.00 6.14
31/03/2012 Premiership Fulham v Norwich Norwich 5.61 4.19
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87
31/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Dunfermline Dunfermline 9.54 7.61
31/03/2012 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock St Mirren 2.50 1.73

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Kidderminster Kidderminster 3.60 2.62
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
31/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Brentford Brentford 5.00 3.69
31/03/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Oldham Oldham 4.56 3.30
30/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Torquay Barnet 3.20 2.29
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Morecambe Morecambe 6.00 4.50
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
31/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Aldershot Aldershot 5.00 3.64
30/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.43
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87
31/03/2012 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock St Mirren 2.50 1.73

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
30/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.43

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Kidderminster Kidderminster 3.60 2.62
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
30/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Torquay Barnet 3.20 2.29
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
30/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.43
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87
31/03/2012 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock St Mirren 2.50 1.73

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
30/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.43

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
30/03/2012 Championship Doncaster v Birmingham Doncaster 4.20 3.00
31/03/2012 Championship Hull v Coventry Coventry 5.45 3.90
31/03/2012 Championship Portsmouth v Burnley Portsmouth 2.40 1.71
31/03/2012 Championship West Ham v Reading Reading 3.49 2.47
31/03/2012 League 1 Bournemouth v Yeovil Yeovil 4.44 3.21
31/03/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Sheff Utd Hartlepool 3.75 2.68
31/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Brentford Brentford 5.00 3.69
31/03/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Oldham Oldham 4.56 3.30
31/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Wycombe Wycombe 5.34 3.94
30/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Torquay Barnet 3.20 2.29
31/03/2012 League 2 Burton v Crawley Burton 5.25 3.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Morecambe Morecambe 6.00 4.50
31/03/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Bradford Bradford 3.64 2.57
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
31/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 8.00 6.14
31/03/2012 Premiership Aston Villa v Chelsea Aston Villa 4.94 3.57
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87
31/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Dunfermline Dunfermline 9.54 7.61
31/03/2012 SPL Hearts v Aberdeen Hearts 2.10 1.48

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Bradford Bradford 3.64 2.57
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Bradford Bradford 3.64 2.57
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
31/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Brentford Brentford 5.00 3.69
31/03/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Oldham Oldham 4.56 3.30
30/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Torquay Barnet 3.20 2.29
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Morecambe Morecambe 6.00 4.50
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
30/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Torquay Barnet 3.20 2.29
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Kidderminster Kidderminster 3.60 2.62
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
31/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Brentford Brentford 5.00 3.69
31/03/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Oldham Oldham 4.56 3.30
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Morecambe Morecambe 6.00 4.50
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
31/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Aldershot Aldershot 5.00 3.64
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87
31/03/2012 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock St Mirren 2.50 1.73

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Barrow Barrow 5.55 4.07
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
31/03/2012 Championship Hull v Coventry Coventry 5.45 3.90
31/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Wycombe Wycombe 5.34 3.94
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
31/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Hereford Rotherham 1.80 1.33
31/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 8.00 6.14
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87
31/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Dunfermline Dunfermline 9.54 7.61
31/03/2012 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock St Mirren 2.50 1.73

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.55 2.52
31/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.10 2.17
31/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Brentford Brentford 5.00 3.69
31/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Northampton Northampton 4.00 2.90
31/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Morecambe Morecambe 6.00 4.50
31/03/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.70
31/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 8.00 6.14
31/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Stoke Wigan 2.67 1.87
31/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Dunfermline Dunfermline 9.54 7.61

Wednesday, 28 March 2012

Always evens out in the end........

I said on the last post that the systems would have to pull something out of the bag to keep the winning run going and not for the first time, they didn’t let me down. I still think of the systems as ‘tipsters’ in the sense they all provide bets and we choose to follow which tipsters we like best. Some following prefer more bets, some following prefer less bets. Some prefer backing outright and some prefer using Asian Handicaps. Thankfully, on nights like last night, everyone ends up a happy bunny.

There were initially 8 games that mattered but this was reduced to 7 when the Shrewsbury game was abandoned. Considering my selection were 1-0 down, possibly a little bit of luck there but as I said on the post when I bemoaned my lack of luck recently, it always evens out in the end. Late goals going against you and general bad luck can kill returns in the short-term and that has happened to a large extent this month but in the overall scheme of things, I’d never believe that a winning system can turn into a losing system due to bad luck in the long-term. I think in the case of short-term and long-term with my systems, we’re talking hundreds of bets and thousands of bets and I’m comfortable that in the long-term, luck evens out.

Anyway, back to the 7 games. The biggest game by far was Lincoln. They appeared on all 20 systems, including the famous 7/22 system. I think Rowan is doing a grand job across at his blog showing how good this system is and hopefully others agree and choose to subscribe to the systems next season. :) Joking aside, one point that is often missed I think when people look at The Football Analyst service (rather than just this blog) is the ‘fairness’ I try to use when quoting prices (which the systems are then proofed at). I know from regularly reading Rowan’s blog that he usually beats my odds on the system 7-22 selections. I know from exchanging emails with others that they do too.

On Monday night, Lincoln were given out as a bet at odds of 2.79. At this time, I know for a fact that they were 2.90+ in 3 places. There was plenty around 2.80+ with Asian books too. Therefore, I would hope that 2.79 was a minimum that people would take. As it turns out, Rowan took 2.84 I see on his blog, so in effect, he’s beaten the suggested price again. Although a small point, I think it’s a valid point for those following and probably more importantly for the future, for those considering subscribing next season.

That’s not to say that you’ll beat every price I give out as that’s not the aim. I would simply be understating returns then which means that my results would look too low when compared with others. I really do play on the fairness aspect where possible. Of course, if you are unable to place the bets close to the time I give them out, you’ll probably get lower odds but I’d be amazed if many struggling to match my quoted results this season due to price movements. I know blog readers who are placing the bets after they appear on here and they can get to within 1%-2% of my returns this season, so you can see how easy it is to follow the service. For a start, if you can make a profit following the blog, you’ll make more following the bets in real time!

So, Lincoln thankfully did the business last night for me. I’d love to say they dominated and deserved to win by a few more goals but I had a glance at the shots on target and I think they maybe only had 2 and scored 2 goals. They’ll drop down my ratings after that win!

The other 6 games then produced 3 winners and 3 draws. Considering the odds of the selections, a fantastic performance from the ratings last night and when they had their backs against the wall, the systems pulled out what they needed.

With this weekend left to finish off the month, last night actually means the systems go into the weekend with a small profit in March. I feel like I’m about to go into the famous Kevin Keegan speech here but I would love it, and I mean love it, if they could end March in profit. At the end of the day, monthly profits don’t matter a jot but I’ve been really proud of the consistency the systems have shown since they went live and as Rowan also touched on last night on his blog (have I said he writes a good blog?), to achieve this level of consistency is actually very unusual for any system or tipster.

So, one weekend to go, a tiny profit on the month and the month hangs in the balance of what happens this weekend. Let’s hope it ends up better for me than it did for Newcastle that year!

Algorithm one, two and three all had 7 bets. 4 wins, 3 draws. A profit of 7.02pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.18pts for DNB.

The established systems made a profit of 35.38pts from 30 bets for H/A betting. A profit of 26.67pts for DNB.

The new systems made a profit of 47.49pts from 45 bets for H/A betting. A profit of 40.1pts for DNB.

Overall, a much needed win and a return to something like their best form for the systems.

Be back on Friday at 6pm with the weekend bets.

Almost forgot, last night snapped the 9 day losing run too in March. About fuc*ing time! ;)



Tuesday, 27 March 2012

Cmon the Redimps!

My ratings have thrown up 8 games tomorrow but one game is a massive game for me. Lincoln appear on all 20 systems and given the way things are going for the systems, I should probably apologise to the Lincoln fans as they'll be just outside the relegation zone tomorrow night if the systems continue on their current losing run. :(

Apart from Lincoln, another 7 teams appear on multiple systems and ultimately, tomorrow night is likely to determine whether the systems end up losing this month or not. The average odds are 3/1, so I really need at least 2 winners from the 8 games to limit the damage but in reality, I need 3 or 4 winners to turn around the month.

Fingers crossed.

The Football Analyst Bets for 27th March

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.14
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02
27/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Doncaster Doncaster 5.00 3.62
27/03/2012 Championship Leicester v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.50 3.29
27/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 5.48 4.08
27/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Brentford Brentford 2.75 1.95
27/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.33 3.09
27/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Port Vale Port Vale 5.29 3.91

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.14
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02
27/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Doncaster Doncaster 5.00 3.62
27/03/2012 Championship Leicester v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.50 3.29
27/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 5.48 4.08
27/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Brentford Brentford 2.75 1.95
27/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.33 3.09
27/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Port Vale Port Vale 5.29 3.91

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.14
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02
27/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Doncaster Doncaster 5.00 3.62
27/03/2012 Championship Leicester v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.50 3.29
27/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 5.48 4.08
27/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Brentford Brentford 2.75 1.95
27/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.33 3.09
27/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Port Vale Port Vale 5.29 3.91

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.14
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02
27/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Doncaster Doncaster 5.00 3.62
27/03/2012 Championship Leicester v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.50 3.29
27/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 5.48 4.08
27/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Brentford Brentford 2.75 1.95
27/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.33 3.09
27/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Port Vale Port Vale 5.29 3.91

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.14
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02
27/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Doncaster Doncaster 5.00 3.62
27/03/2012 Championship Leicester v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.50 3.29
27/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 5.48 4.08
27/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Brentford Brentford 2.75 1.95
27/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.33 3.09
27/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Port Vale Port Vale 5.29 3.91

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.14
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02
27/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Doncaster Doncaster 5.00 3.62
27/03/2012 Championship Leicester v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.50 3.29
27/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 5.48 4.08
27/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Brentford Brentford 2.75 1.95
27/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.33 3.09
27/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Port Vale Port Vale 5.29 3.91

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.14
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02
27/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Doncaster Doncaster 5.00 3.62
27/03/2012 Championship Leicester v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.50 3.29
27/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 5.48 4.08
27/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Brentford Brentford 2.75 1.95
27/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.33 3.09
27/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Port Vale Port Vale 5.29 3.91

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.14
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02
27/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Doncaster Doncaster 5.00 3.62
27/03/2012 Championship Leicester v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.50 3.29
27/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 5.48 4.08
27/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Brentford Brentford 2.75 1.95
27/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.33 3.09
27/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Port Vale Port Vale 5.29 3.91

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.14
27/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Lincoln Lincoln 2.79 2.02
27/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Doncaster Doncaster 5.00 3.62
27/03/2012 Championship Leicester v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.50 3.29
27/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 5.48 4.08
27/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Brentford Brentford 2.75 1.95
27/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.33 3.09
27/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Port Vale Port Vale 5.29 3.91

Monday, 26 March 2012

And another blog to read......

A quick post detailing yet another blog that should be a good read and will hopefully pinpoint some winners on the racing.

When I started out as The Form Analyst in 2008, one of my intentions was to try to educate people about how detailed form analysis could be used to make a profit from horseracing. I reckon that my knowledge on flat racing at the time was probably as good as most in the game and I showed that over the Summer of 2009 when the service produced some great results. With hindsight, I should have probably given Andrew (The Value Bettor) a free rein in the Winter as he was helping me out with pinpointing potential bets and although my flat knowledge was much better, Andrew’s NH knowledge was superior to mines.

One of the best things to come out of TFA was that many people learned a lot about how to make a profit from horseracing and sports betting and that in itself has spawned various betting blogs written by ex subscribers to TFA.

The latest person to take the plunge is Matt. I think when Matt first joined TFA, he had little, if not no knowledge of the horseracing game. He was simply following the advice of tipsters but I reckon that anyone who spends time discussing horseracing with myself (or Andrew) can come to the conclusion that it isn’t as difficult to find an edge at this game as some people think. If you’re willing to work hard and spend long enough on races, you can find yourself an edge. Being honest, I reckon that if you’ve got half a brain and are willing to work hard, you can find an edge on most sports!

I think it was the first summer after I stopped looking at the racing that Matt decided he wanted to learn about trying to find an edge at horseracing. Andrew and I had already written reams of posts in the forum regarding the ways to go about this and Matt diligently studied what we’d written and asked us various questions etc. It soon became clear that Matt was on his way to becoming a value bettor but the one thing he lacked was any experience.

He cut his teeth in the forum in the summer of 2010 by posting selections and his results were half decent. I know that due to time pressures etc. Matt has struggled to devote much time to his race reading as he’d have liked but I reckon that a blog is a great way to keep you motivated at this game. Once you build up a readership, it gives you an incentive to keep going during bad spells which is one of the drawbacks of value betting I find.

My ‘free’ time these days is obviously dedicated to football systems and football betting but I’m sure one day, I will return to flat racing as I know I have a pretty big edge there. The ROI for flat racing only for The Form Analyst service over the 13 months of the service was 48.3%. Unfortunately, my issue with the racing service was the time it took to do the work and ultimately, I have less time these days than I’ve ever had. I do still miss the racing though and although hitting a winner on system 7-22 gives me a big buzz these days, it’s not quite the same as dissecting a 20 runner handicap!

Hopefully Matt will prove an able substitute for TFA in the next few months. If that’s not pressure, I don’t know what is……..

http://matt-on-form.blogspot.co.uk/

Sunday, 25 March 2012

Nine in a row........

Another 2 days, another 2 small losses. That makes it 9 losing days in a row. (The new systems ensured an overall profit was made on the systems this weekend but I’m judging this losing run on the 6 combined systems which is what I’m being proofed at and what I’m following at the moment).

I had a wee moan on the last results post about the lack of things going my way and so often this month, good days have been turned into small losing days due to late goals. Well, the systems got their own back this weekend as a big losing weekend turned into a small losing weekend due to a very late Forest Green goal going my way. Long overdue and I could do with a few more like this!

I try my best to not just look at the system results and try to look one step beyond this when assessing the performance of the systems over a set of fixtures. So often this month, the betting days have been much better than it looked on the final P&L. Well, this weekend, it was much worse than it looked at the end of the day. The systems deserved to lose badly as they were a good bit off in a number of games. A couple of defeats turned into draws late on which helped paint a better picture for AH bettors but let’s not paper over the cracks, it was a rubbish weekend again.

It’s very hard to put my finger on what’s going on. I’m feeling quite helpless at the moment and it’s a similar position I was in last year at this time. I just need to keep doing the work, keep churning out the system bets and hope to God that things turn and the systems get back into some sort of form.

The overall ROI for The Football Analyst service (the 6 combined systems) has now dropped below 15% over 1,848 bets which is slightly disappointing but it’s all relative I guess. It’s proving a tougher season than last season so far for my systems but I know from looking around that others using football ratings haven’t had anywhere near the season I’ve had to date, so I’m trying my best to keep looking at the bigger picture. Easier said than done on a blog like this which is discussing the results from every set of fixtures!

Anyway, here’s the breakdown for this weekend.

Algorithm one had 19 bets. 5 winners, 7 draws and 7 losers. A loss of 2pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.5pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 17 bets. 5 wins, 5 draws and 7 losers. Exactly break-even for H/A betting and a profit of 0.5pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 14 bets. 5 wins, 5 draws and only 4 losers. A profit of 6.5pts for H/A betting and a profit of 5.96pts for DNB betting.

A really good performance from the new algorithm this weekend. Managed to catch Hartlepool and Rangers which no other system caught unfortunately!

The established systems made a loss of 8.4pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.25pts for DNB betting.

The new systems made a profit of 15.05pts for H/A betting and a profit of 17.94pts for DNB betting.

Overall then, the run for the established systems continues and in particular, the run for the combined systems.

The combined systems have managed to make a profit for 5 months straight this season and 12 months in 15 live months. However, they are currently down in March and therefore, it’s looking like an end to this winning streak. Of course, I don’t want to judge the systems over a month spell and neither should anyone else but I’ve been really proud of this run for these systems. Hopefully they can pull something out of the bag in the midweek fixtures and the weekend fixtures but given the current form of the systems, I’m not sure it will happen really.

Be back at 9am on Tuesday with the midweek bets.



Friday, 23 March 2012

Will this stop the rot?

Here's the bets for this weekend. A busy day for each algorithm again but not too many bets picked out by the more selective systems.

I'm overdue a good day and I could really do with a couple of late goals going my way but as always, whatever will be, will be!

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 24th-25th March

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Grimsby Luton 1.83 1.34
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Stockport v Bath Bath 4.10 2.99
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Forest Green Forest Green 7.50 5.70
24/03/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Brighton Notts Forest 2.30 1.62
24/03/2012 Championship Reading v Blackpool Blackpool 4.50 3.32
24/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Carlisle Carlisle 3.44 2.45
24/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.75 1.94
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Exeter Tranmere 1.80 1.31
24/03/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Oxford Cheltenham 2.38 1.68
24/03/2012 League 2 Northampton v Plymouth Plymouth 3.70 2.61
24/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Port Vale Port Vale 4.50 3.25
24/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Burton Wimbledon 2.15 1.55
24/03/2012 Premiership Chelsea v Tottenham Tottenham 4.33 3.16
24/03/2012 Premiership Norwich v Wolves Norwich 1.80 1.34
24/03/2012 Premiership Sunderland v QPR QPR 4.00 2.88
25/03/2012 Premiership West Brom v Newcastle West Brom 2.38 1.70
24/03/2012 SPL Aberdeen v Inverness Inverness 3.75 2.65
24/03/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Hearts Hearts 3.10 2.16

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Exeter Tranmere 1.80 1.31

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Grimsby Luton 1.83 1.34
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Stockport v Bath Bath 4.10 2.99
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Forest Green Forest Green 7.50 5.70
24/03/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Brighton Notts Forest 2.30 1.62
24/03/2012 Championship Reading v Blackpool Blackpool 4.50 3.32
24/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Carlisle Carlisle 3.44 2.45
24/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.75 1.94
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Exeter Tranmere 1.80 1.31
24/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Port Vale Port Vale 4.50 3.25
24/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Burton Wimbledon 2.15 1.55
24/03/2012 Premiership Chelsea v Tottenham Tottenham 4.33 3.16
24/03/2012 Premiership Norwich v Wolves Norwich 1.80 1.34
24/03/2012 Premiership Sunderland v QPR QPR 4.00 2.88
25/03/2012 Premiership West Brom v Newcastle West Brom 2.38 1.70
24/03/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Hearts Hearts 3.10 2.16
24/03/2012 SPL Aberdeen v Inverness Inverness 3.75 2.65

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Grimsby Luton 1.83 1.34
24/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.75 1.94

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Grimsby Luton 1.83 1.34
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Stockport v Bath Bath 4.10 2.99
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Forest Green Forest Green 7.50 5.70
24/03/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Brighton Notts Forest 2.30 1.62
24/03/2012 Championship Reading v Blackpool Blackpool 4.50 3.32
24/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Carlisle Carlisle 3.44 2.45
24/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.75 1.94
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Exeter Tranmere 1.80 1.31
24/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Port Vale Port Vale 4.50 3.25
24/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Burton Wimbledon 2.15 1.55
24/03/2012 Premiership Chelsea v Tottenham Tottenham 4.33 3.16
24/03/2012 Premiership Norwich v Wolves Norwich 1.80 1.34
24/03/2012 Premiership Sunderland v QPR QPR 4.00 2.88
25/03/2012 Premiership West Brom v Newcastle West Brom 2.38 1.70
24/03/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Hearts Hearts 3.10 2.16
24/03/2012 SPL Aberdeen v Inverness Inverness 3.75 2.65

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Grimsby Luton 1.83 1.34
24/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.75 1.94

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Exeter Tranmere 1.80 1.31

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Grimsby Luton 1.83 1.34
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Stockport v Bath Bath 4.10 2.99
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Forest Green Forest Green 7.50 5.70
24/03/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Brighton Notts Forest 2.30 1.62
24/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Carlisle Carlisle 3.44 2.45
24/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.75 1.94
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.30 2.36
24/03/2012 League 2 Northampton v Plymouth Plymouth 3.70 2.61
24/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Port Vale Port Vale 4.50 3.25
24/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Burton Wimbledon 2.15 1.55
24/03/2012 SPL Aberdeen v Inverness Inverness 3.75 2.65
25/03/2012 SPL Rangers v Celtic Rangers 3.75 2.71
24/03/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Hearts Hearts 3.10 2.16

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Burton Wimbledon 2.15 1.55

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Burton Wimbledon 2.15 1.55

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Grimsby Luton 1.83 1.34
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Stockport v Bath Bath 4.10 2.99
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Forest Green Forest Green 7.50 5.70
24/03/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Brighton Notts Forest 2.30 1.62
24/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Carlisle Carlisle 3.44 2.45
24/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.75 1.94
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Port Vale Port Vale 4.50 3.25
24/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Burton Wimbledon 2.15 1.55
24/03/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Hearts Hearts 3.10 2.16
24/03/2012 SPL Aberdeen v Inverness Inverness 3.75 2.65

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Grimsby Luton 1.83 1.34
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Stockport v Bath Bath 4.10 2.99
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Forest Green Forest Green 7.50 5.70
24/03/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Brighton Notts Forest 2.30 1.62
24/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Carlisle Carlisle 3.44 2.45
24/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.75 1.94
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Port Vale Port Vale 4.50 3.25
24/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Burton Wimbledon 2.15 1.55
24/03/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Hearts Hearts 3.10 2.16
24/03/2012 SPL Aberdeen v Inverness Inverness 3.75 2.65

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Stockport v Bath Bath 4.10 2.99
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Forest Green Forest Green 7.50 5.70
24/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Carlisle Carlisle 3.44 2.45
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Port Vale Port Vale 4.50 3.25
24/03/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Hearts Hearts 3.10 2.16

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Stockport v Bath Bath 4.10 2.99
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Forest Green Forest Green 7.50 5.70
24/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Carlisle Carlisle 3.44 2.45
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Port Vale Port Vale 4.50 3.25
24/03/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Hearts Hearts 3.10 2.16

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Stockport v Bath Bath 4.10 2.99
24/03/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Forest Green Forest Green 7.50 5.70
24/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Carlisle Carlisle 3.44 2.45
24/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Bury Bury 3.75 2.76
24/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Port Vale Port Vale 4.50 3.25
24/03/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Hearts Hearts 3.10 2.16

Thursday, 22 March 2012

7th losing day in a row!

As the title of the post states, it’s the 7th losing day in a row in March where the systems have had bets. It’s actually the 9th day in 11 days this month that the systems have lost.

As I’ve said on earlier posts this month, I try my best to not discuss the dreaded ‘luck’ word when discussing short-term results as at the end of the day, there are so many system bets in a season, luck will even out and if it doesn’t even out this season, it will even out over the next season and so on.

Quite often, I try my best to not even mention late goals going against the systems as people reading will no doubt think I’m papering over the cracks of my systems losing their edge and the sort of rubbish that people spout in anonymous comments on this blog (which don’t get published). However, when you get a little run of luck going against you, it’s hard to not make mention of it, so here goes....

Plymouth appeared on 13 systems at odds of 2.75. Conceded a 95th minute goal to Macclesfield. A swing of 35.75pts.
Oxford appeared on 11 systems at odds of 4.00. Conceded a 94th minute equaliser to Shrewsbury. A swing of 44pts.
Bristol Rovers appeared on 14 systems at odds of 4.33. Conceded a 90th minute equaliser to Torquay. A swing of 60.62pts.
Walsall appeared on 9 systems at odds of 6.50. Conceded a 95th minute goal to Sheff Wed. A swing of 58.5pts.

Of course, I’ve picked 4 recent games at high odds on multiple systems. There are lots of other examples of late goals but in the long-run, the success of the systems are determined by the teams that appear the most times.

The Walsall one was a real sickener in midweek as Barnet had equalised against Dagenham with 10 mins left and that meant that to have a profitable night (and break my current losing streak), I needed Walsall to hold on. I was watching Sky Sports news and it was the final game to finish and the guy in the studio was almost as shocked as me that there had been a goal in the game and I knew before they want across that it was to Sheff Wed. Last kick of the game and in injury time in injury time. Nightmare.

That’s a small sample of games in the last 3 weeks that have gone against the systems. Not for one minute am I saying that all these teams deserved to win and of course, there are many things that affect the outcome of games (missed penalty last night by Coventry!) but in a short period of time (e.g. a month), I actually think it’s impossible to recover from these things going against you. Therefore, I’m facing up to the fact that the systems may experience only their 4th losing month in nearly two seasons. Obviously, with two weekends left, that may change and considering the systems are only making a small loss at the moment, it doesn’t take much to turn the month around but deep down, I can’t help feel that you can’t hide from the fact things haven’t gone my way with late goals and therefore, the systems are destined to lose on the month.

Anyway, onto the results update.

Algorithm one had 22 bets. 6 winners, 8 draws and 8 losers. A loss of 3.22pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.57pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 18 bets. 4 winners, 7 draws and 7 losers. A loss of 4.82pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.52pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 17 bets, 4 winners, 5 draws and 8 losers. A loss of 3.05pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.86ts for DNB betting.

A few too many draws this midweek which ultimately ensures that each rating algorithm lost. This will manifest itself into a bad night for the systems.

The established systems lost 18pts for H/A betting and 3.26pts for DNB betting.

The new systems lost 31.7pts for H/A betting and 17.3pts for DNB betting.

Overall, you can see quickly that the swing on the Walsall game put the systems into a loss making position on the night. There were too many draws on the night unfortunately and this ensured another losing night.

As you would expect, it was a much better night for AH betting and both sets of systems made a small profit if using AH 0.5 (dutching the win and draw). Definitely worth investigating AH betting this summer I think.

I’ll be back with the weekend bets Friday at 6pm.



Tuesday, 20 March 2012

Midweek Bets

I get a feeling it could be car crash stuff this midweek looking at the number of games but more importantly, the average odds. Given the current form of the systems, you have to think it could be a disaster waiting to happen. We'll see what happens.

The Football Analyst Bets for 20th-21st March

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Mansfield Alfreton 3.60 2.61
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Newport Newport 4.00 2.89
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Bath Bath 7.00 5.46
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Grimsby Hayes 4.41 3.31
20/03/2012 Championship Bristol City v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
21/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Coventry Coventry 6.00 4.49
20/03/2012 Championship Doncaster v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 Championship Leeds v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.33 3.12
20/03/2012 Championship West Ham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.80 3.50
20/03/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Preston Carlisle 1.83 1.35
20/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Yeovil Yeovil 6.15 4.66
20/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.95
20/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Colchester Stevenage 1.95 1.40
20/03/2012 League 2 Accrington v Morecambe Accrington 2.30 1.66
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.55 4.11
20/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.10 2.94
20/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Aldershot Aldershot 4.20 3.03
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28
20/03/2012 Premiership Blackburn v Sunderland Blackburn 2.50 1.76

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Mansfield Alfreton 3.60 2.61
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Newport Newport 4.00 2.89
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Bath Bath 7.00 5.46
21/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Coventry Coventry 6.00 4.49
20/03/2012 Championship Doncaster v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 Championship Leeds v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.33 3.12
20/03/2012 Championship West Ham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.80 3.50
20/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Yeovil Yeovil 6.15 4.66
20/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.95
20/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Colchester Stevenage 1.95 1.40
20/03/2012 League 2 Accrington v Morecambe Accrington 2.30 1.66
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.55 4.11
20/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.10 2.94
20/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Aldershot Aldershot 4.20 3.03
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Championship Doncaster v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
20/03/2012 Championship West Ham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.80 3.50
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Mansfield Alfreton 3.60 2.61
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Newport Newport 4.00 2.89
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Bath Bath 7.00 5.46
21/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Coventry Coventry 6.00 4.49
20/03/2012 Championship Doncaster v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 Championship Leeds v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.33 3.12
20/03/2012 Championship West Ham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.80 3.50
20/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Yeovil Yeovil 6.15 4.66
20/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.95
20/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Colchester Stevenage 1.95 1.40
20/03/2012 League 2 Accrington v Morecambe Accrington 2.30 1.66
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.55 4.11
20/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.10 2.94
20/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Aldershot Aldershot 4.20 3.03
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Championship Doncaster v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
20/03/2012 Championship West Ham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.80 3.50
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Mansfield Alfreton 3.60 2.61
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Newport Newport 4.00 2.89
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Bath Bath 7.00 5.46
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Grimsby Hayes 4.41 3.31
20/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Derby Derby 4.69 3.37
21/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Coventry Coventry 6.00 4.49
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Yeovil Yeovil 6.15 4.66
20/03/2012 League 1 Exeter v Wycombe Wycombe 3.00 2.14
20/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.95
20/03/2012 League 2 Accrington v Morecambe Accrington 2.30 1.66
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.55 4.11
20/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Aldershot Aldershot 4.20 3.03
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28
21/03/2012 Premiership QPR v Liverpool QPR 5.00 3.68

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Mansfield Alfreton 3.60 2.61
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Newport Newport 4.00 2.89
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Bath Bath 7.00 5.46
21/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Coventry Coventry 6.00 4.49
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Yeovil Yeovil 6.15 4.66
20/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.95
20/03/2012 League 2 Accrington v Morecambe Accrington 2.30 1.66
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.55 4.11
20/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Aldershot Aldershot 4.20 3.03
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Mansfield Alfreton 3.60 2.61
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Newport Newport 4.00 2.89
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Bath Bath 7.00 5.46
21/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Coventry Coventry 6.00 4.49
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Yeovil Yeovil 6.15 4.66
20/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.95
20/03/2012 League 2 Accrington v Morecambe Accrington 2.30 1.66
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.55 4.11
20/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Aldershot Aldershot 4.20 3.03
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Newport Newport 4.00 2.89
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Bath Bath 7.00 5.46
20/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Yeovil Yeovil 6.15 4.66
20/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.95
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.55 4.11
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28
21/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Coventry Coventry 6.00 4.49
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 Championship Leeds v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.33 3.12
20/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Aldershot Aldershot 4.20 3.03

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Newport Newport 4.00 2.89
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Bath Bath 7.00 5.46
20/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Yeovil Yeovil 6.15 4.66
20/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.95
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.55 4.11
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28
21/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Coventry Coventry 6.00 4.49
20/03/2012 Championship Doncaster v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 Championship Leeds v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.33 3.12
20/03/2012 Championship West Ham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.80 3.50
20/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Aldershot Aldershot 4.20 3.03

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Newport Newport 4.00 2.89
20/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Yeovil Yeovil 6.15 4.66
20/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.95
20/03/2012 League 2 Barnet v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.45
20/03/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bradford Bradford 3.75 2.70
20/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.55 4.11
20/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Torquay Swindon 1.75 1.28
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Bath Bath 7.00 5.46
20/03/2012 Bsq Prem Hayes v Grimsby Hayes 4.41 3.31
20/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Derby Derby 4.69 3.37
21/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Coventry Coventry 6.00 4.49
21/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Burnley Burnley 4.00 2.94
20/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Aldershot Aldershot 4.20 3.03
21/03/2012 Premiership QPR v Liverpool QPR 5.00 3.68

Monday, 19 March 2012

Latest Results

Another two betting days this weekend, another two losing days. A quick look at my own P&L this month and it shows bets on 9 days this month with only 2 winning days and 7 losing days. My ROI on the month is 7%, so it doesn’t tell the whole story (number of winning days doesn’t matter in the long-run) but as I keep saying, this game does feel like hard work at the moment.

Since I returned from my honeymoon at the start of Feb, I’ve had bets on 19 days, 14 losses and 5 wins. Only making a profit on 26% of the days is pretty low and again, it doesn’t tell the whole story as the portfolio of systems I follow has made a profit over this period. However, I am starting to feel like I can do with a break and unfortunately, I’m in the middle of a very busy period, so I just need to keep ploughing on but I’m already starting to look forward to the Summer!

I think one issue I have is that I’m very anal when it comes to results updating. I can tell you how much I’ve won or lost on a particular day over the past 5 years now (racing, footie, golf etc.) and tracking a daily P&L is probably not the best thing when things aren’t going your way. It feels like a lot of hard work for not a lot of return at times. Long-term though, the picture remains rosy!

If I look at the results from the weekend, again, I can’t argue with the fact that my ratings are finding value bets but no matter how good they are, you need something to go your way in the short-term with the odds I’m playing at but at the moment, not much is going my way.

Tamworth at odds of 6.00, Tranmere at odds of 6.00, Burnley at odds of 4.18 and Coventry at odds of 4.00. 4 fairly big priced aways, 4 draws and ultimately, 4 losers for the systems. I don’t think anyone can argue that these teams weren’t value bets but I just need one of them to win and it turns a losing weekend into a profitable one. Again though, it didn’t happen and therefore, it’s another small loss on the weekend.

Algorithm one had 15 bets, 5 winners, 5 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 1.08pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.14pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 11 bets, 2 winners, 4 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 4.83pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.64pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 16 bets, 4 winners, 6 draws and 6 losers. A loss of 5.09pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.27pts for DNB.

Losses on all 3 algorithms will mean the systems had a bad weekend I’m afraid.

The established systems lost 12.7pts for H/A betting and 6.3pts for DNB betting. Considering the base algorithm results, only losing 12.7pts seems like an achievement.

Unfortunately, the new systems didn’t escape anywhere near as well. The new systems lost 33.6pts for H/A betting and 21.7pts for DNB.

There you go, a fairly quiet weekend but when things don’t go your way, a pretty substantial loss on the systems this weekend. The systems started the month well but the constant losses has seen most of the profits evaporate as we’ve moved through the month. So much so that the month now hangs in the balance again and another bad midweek and the month will be loss making all of a sudden.

I’m sure some people will point out that it’s possibly the ‘second half of the season syndrome’ showing its teeth and maybe this is the start of things to come over the remaining weeks of the season and therefore, I should expect to lose from here on in. We’ll see what happens.

Next bets will be on the blog tomorrow at 9am. There is a busy midweek card and there will be a fair number of system bets.



Friday, 16 March 2012

Another Quiet One?

Not sure what's going on with the weekends at the moment but the midweeks are providing better value bets than the weekend cards! A real lack of action this week with nothing strong enough to appear on 7-2,8-21 or 8-22. Let's hope they aren't getting a pat on the back on Monday for missing this weekend......

Good luck.


The Football Analyst Bets for 17th-18th March

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Gateshead Gateshead 3.25 2.27
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Tamworth Tamworth 6.00 4.50
17/03/2012 Championship Birmingham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.30 3.06
18/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Burnley Burnley 4.18 2.99
17/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Hull Hull 3.00 2.09
17/03/2012 Championship Doncaster v Derby Derby 3.50 2.49
17/03/2012 Championship Watford v Coventry Coventry 4.00 2.93
17/03/2012 League 1 Notts County v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 2.92 2.09
17/03/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Oldham Rochdale 2.15 1.52
17/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.56
17/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Walsall Walsall 3.15 2.22
17/03/2012 League 2 Burton v Torquay Burton 3.00 2.12
17/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Macclesfield Dagenham 2.10 1.49
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Hull Hull 3.00 2.09
17/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Macclesfield Dagenham 2.10 1.49

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Gateshead Gateshead 3.25 2.27
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Tamworth Tamworth 6.00 4.50
17/03/2012 Championship Birmingham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.30 3.06
18/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Burnley Burnley 4.18 2.99
17/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Hull Hull 3.00 2.09
17/03/2012 League 1 Notts County v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 2.92 2.09
17/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.56
17/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Walsall Walsall 3.15 2.22
17/03/2012 League 2 Burton v Torquay Burton 3.00 2.12
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Burnley Burnley 4.18 2.99
17/03/2012 League 1 Notts County v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 2.92 2.09
17/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Walsall Walsall 3.15 2.22
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Gateshead Gateshead 3.25 2.27
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Tamworth Tamworth 6.00 4.50
17/03/2012 Championship Birmingham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.30 3.06
18/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Burnley Burnley 4.18 2.99
17/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Hull Hull 3.00 2.09
17/03/2012 League 1 Notts County v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 2.92 2.09
17/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.56
17/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Walsall Walsall 3.15 2.22
17/03/2012 League 2 Burton v Torquay Burton 3.00 2.12
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Burnley Burnley 4.18 2.99
17/03/2012 League 1 Notts County v Sheff Wed Sheff Wed 2.92 2.09
17/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Walsall Walsall 3.15 2.22
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Hull Hull 3.00 2.09
17/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Macclesfield Dagenham 2.10 1.49

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Gateshead Gateshead 3.25 2.27
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Tamworth Tamworth 6.00 4.50
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Barrow Barrow 5.50 4.05
17/03/2012 Championship Birmingham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.30 3.06
18/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Burnley Burnley 4.18 2.99
17/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Hull Hull 3.00 2.09
17/03/2012 Championship Leeds v West Ham Leeds 2.80 2.01
17/03/2012 Championship Portsmouth v Bristol City Bristol City 3.25 2.29
17/03/2012 League 1 Bury v Wycombe Wycombe 3.40 2.45
17/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.56
17/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Walsall Walsall 3.15 2.22
17/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Bradford Aldershot 2.16 1.52
17/03/2012 League 2 Burton v Torquay Burton 3.00 2.12
17/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Macclesfield Dagenham 2.10 1.49
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Gateshead Gateshead 3.25 2.27
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Tamworth Tamworth 6.00 4.50
17/03/2012 Championship Birmingham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.30 3.06
18/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Burnley Burnley 4.18 2.99
17/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Hull Hull 3.00 2.09
17/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.56
17/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Walsall Walsall 3.15 2.22
17/03/2012 League 2 Burton v Torquay Burton 3.00 2.12
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Gateshead Gateshead 3.25 2.27
17/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Tamworth Tamworth 6.00 4.50
17/03/2012 Championship Birmingham v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.30 3.06
18/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Burnley Burnley 4.18 2.99
17/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Hull Hull 3.00 2.09
17/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.56
17/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Walsall Walsall 3.15 2.22
17/03/2012 League 2 Burton v Torquay Burton 3.00 2.12
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.56
17/03/2012 League 2 Burton v Torquay Burton 3.00 2.12
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.56
17/03/2012 League 2 Burton v Torquay Burton 3.00 2.12
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.56
17/03/2012 League 2 Burton v Torquay Burton 3.00 2.12
17/03/2012 League 2 Oxford v Rotherham Rotherham 3.50 2.47
17/03/2012 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.75 2.65

Wednesday, 14 March 2012

Dodging Icebergs!

I’ve mentioned this before on the blog but I’ve sort of developed a sixth sense about how good or bad a set of fixtures are going to be quite early on in the games. For example, last Tuesday, I knew early on that it would be a profitable evening and it had the potential to be a great evening and it turned out that way. On Saturday, things again looked very good early on but the late goals all went against the systems, so it actually turned a profitable day into a small losing day. I’m not right all the time!

Quite early on last night, as sometimes happens, it quickly became a case of damage limitation. As the night wore on, I was starting to think that all 4 of the big games that my systems had selected weren’t going to return any winners and that would have been a disaster.

As it happens, Tranmere came from behind to win and due to the fact they appeared on all 20 systems, then their win alone ensured it was never going to be the disaster it looked like being at one stage.

I think we got a little bit of luck with York who managed to throw away a 2 goal lead (lost count how often this has happened recently) but amazingly, they managed to score late on to win 3-2. Of course, as usual, there were the late goals going against the systems and sending offs again hurting the teams I’d backed but as I keep saying, this is part of the game with these systems. It happened last season plenty of times and maybe we got a little luckier earlier this season when things went out way a fair bit but we’re definitively seeing a correction now.

Overall then, looking at the results, it’s actually a little surprising to see that the systems didn’t lose more points. Of course, hitting a few winners and lots of losers is never ideal as I know some people follow the aways by covering the draw, so it wasn’t ever going to be a good night last night for them. The systems barely had a draw in any of the games.

At times though, holding onto as much of the profit as you can during a bad set of fixtures is almost as important as nights like last Tuesday when the systems hit plenty of big priced winners. I’ll take the results from last night and move on.

I said this straight after the games in the TFA forum but it does feel like I’m trying to steer the Titanic at the moment. Last night was very close to hitting a massive iceberg and if Tranmere hadn’t won, this post would have read much differently today. However, the systems managed to get through (just!) and can move onto the weekend now, with confidence intact and profits still in the bag.

The combined systems have now had 94 bets already this month with the highest live month so far being 181 bets, so with 3 weekends left this month, it’s likely to be the highest number of bets in a month since the systems went live. That alone is quite scary as usually I’d be thinking that the month is going OK and we’ll get to the end of it in one piece but with 3 weekends left, this is almost the same as some other full months of the year! A very long way to go this month……

Algorithm one had 8 bets last night. 4 winners and 4 losers. A profit of 3.83pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.5pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 9 bets. 4 winners, 4 losers and 1 draw. A profit of 0.81pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.91pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 9 bets, 4 winners and 5 losers. A profit of 2.83pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.5pts for DNB.

Looking at the results of my ratings last night, it actually doesn’t look too bad but it is hidden by the fact that Cambridge and Hull both won but didn’t appear on both system 6 and 21, so they don’t really count in the returns of the systems as much as I’d have liked them too!

The established systems made a loss of 2.6pts for H/A betting and a loss of 14.4pts for DNB betting.

The new systems made a loss of 2.13pts for H/A betting and a loss of 15.4pts for DNB betting.

Although I said I wouldn’t discuss it until the summer, with DNB not having a good night last night, that guarantees that AH betting would have had an even worse night. It was big losses across the piece for any AH betting last night which goes to show how easy it is to turn a winning system into losing system using AH betting. All 3 rating algorithms were profitable last night and backing outright made a small loss. However, any form of AH betting made substantial losses on the night as it doesn’t work when teams either or lose. No point in having the draw on your side if your teams either win or lose!

The next post will be on Friday at 6pm with the weekend bets.



Tuesday, 13 March 2012

AH Questions

There was a good comment from Mark on my earlier post concerning the AH data I’ve added to my results database. Here’s Mark’s comment in full.

Hi Graeme.

Great to see you have added the AH results to your data. One thing that I was wondering is why you don't have lines like -0.5 or -0.25 etc. but only + lines ?

You should also be aware that on the lower leagues (league one and lower), the big Asian firms will only have 1 or 2 lines. Therefore, the prices will not be very competitive for some of the AH lines.

How do you decide which lines you will taking for any game?

Mark


I regularly exchange emails with Mark, so I could have answered via email but I think it’s important that when people ask good questions and I want to give a good reply, I want as many people to see it as possible. Therefore, it’s better if I respond on the blog.

I think Mark’s comment is split into 3 parts and each part is quite fundamental to what I’m doing with the AH betting, so I’ll deal with each part separately.

The first question is an easy one and quite simply, my philosophy around AH betting is to use it to reduce the variance (e.g. volatility) in the results of some of the systems. I’ll probably have to keep reiterating this but I DO NOT see AH betting as a way to increase profitability of the systems. Therefore, if I started giving away handicaps to opposing teams, then although it may increase profitability overall (I’d be getting better odds on some of my teams), it is likely to increase the volatility of my results. Hence, I will NEVER suggest a bet where my team gives away a handicap.

Now, I know people will read this and think, why doesn’t he just give away handicaps when he’s sure his team will win by X goals etc. but that’s getting involved into a whole murky world that I don’t want to get involved in. For a start, I very rarely find any value in a bet at less than 2.00 and therefore, I don’t really have to worry about how many goals etc. my team are expected to win by. The vast majority of the teams I back are expected to lose and the reason I’m backing them is simply because they are overpriced. I very rarely back a team and expect them to actually win. The ones I do expect to win are the Home bets which are shorter prices but then again, when I expect them to win, their goal expectancy isn’t ever going to be massive.

If I was highlighting teams at odds of 1.5 or less that were value to back, then Yes, I can see some mileage in trying to work out if these teams can give away a handicap and still win and this would push up my ROI and returns but quite simply, in nearly 2 seasons of doing this, I’ve never found value in a team at less than 1.5. That’s not to say it doesn’t exist and of course, many people using their own ratings can find value at these odds but my ratings are built in such a way that these bets aren’t thrown up. Well, if I had no odds filters on my ratings, then yes, these bets would be thrown up but when I was building my ratings, I really struggled to find anything to work long-term in this price range, so they just don’t get thrown up as value bets.

Of course, if I find big value in a big priced away bet, then I can increase the value further by giving away a handicap rather than asking for one but again, you need to understand why I want to use AH betting as a tool. It is a tool to help reduce volatility and therefore, backing 5/1 chances away from home and giving the home team a start isn’t really going to reduce volatility in the long-term!

The second question is also an easy one to answer. I will NOT be quoting odds from AH bookmakers. My AH odds will always be adhoc odds which are made up from the recommended price on the selection to win and the draw price (usually Pinnacle’s draw price). Therefore, people can do a comparison very quickly between my quoted odds and the AH odds. Depending on who you talk to, some say the AH bookies will offer better odds and others say adhoc ods are better. In the long-term, I suspect there isn’t much in it but to really maximise your profits, you want to mix and match.

For games with a big priced selection, then I have found it to be consistently better to create your own DNB (AH0) odds rather than taking the AH0 or DNB odds on offer from AH bookmakers or UK bookmakers. However, for games where there isn’t much between the sides, then I tend to find the DNB (AH0) odds to be better. Quite simply, this will be linked to the fact that there is more bookmaker competition around the AH0 line when the games are closer, so this reduces the overround in this market.

In summary then, next season, similar like I have done this season with DNB odds, I will quote the adhoc AH odds and people can either place the bet like I suggest to match my suggested odds or go directly to an AH bookmaker to place the beat when these odds are better.

As for the 3rd question Mark, quite simply mate, I won’t be advising which line to choose. I’ll leave that to those of you following the bets. I’ll do all the work this summer, report back on the results, give my view on when it may be better to ask for a handicap and when not to but at the end of the day, The Football Analyst isn’t responsible for everyone’s P&L account. I’ll get judged on backing the selections to win, I’ll also show the results for backing on each AH line and people will have their own P&L. Those that don’t like AH betting can just back outright, those that like AH betting can just use that, those that like both can mix and match and basically, everyone can do their own thing.

I should add one final thing before I finish. Clearly, AH betting is interesting and I think it can help reduce variance but it isn’t going to be helpful on the systems which have very little variance at the moment. Hence, anyone following system 7-22 on its own probably doesn’t need to worry too much about AH betting. The Aways on there tend to be very stable anyway, so not sure I’d be tinkering too much with the best football system on the planet at the moment anyway!

Hope this makes sense Mark. If not, just get in touch mate.

Tonight's Bets

Below are the bets for tonight. A lot of big bets and it's going to be another massive night for the systems. 4 games dominate and I can really do with at least 2 of these winning for me.

Wish me luck!

The Football Analyst Bets for 13th March

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v York York 2.88 2.09
13/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Hull Hull 4.07 2.91
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Oldham Oldham 5.42 3.94
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Northampton Northampton 2.88 2.08
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Barrow Cambridge 2.05 1.50
13/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v York York 2.88 2.09
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Oldham Oldham 5.42 3.94
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.88 2.04
13/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Northampton Northampton 2.88 2.08
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v York York 2.88 2.09
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Oldham Oldham 5.42 3.94
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Northampton Northampton 2.88 2.08
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Wrexham Ebbsfleet 5.05 3.72
13/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v York York 2.88 2.09
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 Championship Cardiff v Hull Hull 4.07 2.91
13/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Oldham Oldham 5.42 3.94
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Northampton Northampton 2.88 2.08
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v York York 2.88 2.09
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Oldham Oldham 5.42 3.94
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Northampton Northampton 2.88 2.08
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v York York 2.88 2.09
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Oldham Oldham 5.42 3.94
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Northampton Northampton 2.88 2.08
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Oldham Oldham 5.42 3.94
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Northampton Northampton 2.88 2.08
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Oldham Oldham 5.42 3.94
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Northampton Northampton 2.88 2.08
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v York York 2.88 2.09
13/03/2012 Championship Derby v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.90 2.02
13/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Oldham Oldham 5.42 3.94
13/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.00 1.43
13/03/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Northampton Northampton 2.88 2.08
13/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Torquay Rotherham 2.38 1.67
13/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 2.90 2.06
13/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.88 2.04

Monday, 12 March 2012

Results Update

I get a feeling this could be a long post today as there is a little bit of explanation needed for the results tables and in addition, I want to have a little moan about the weekend and the fact we didn’t get many breaks go our way. However, before I get started, I want to mention another blog that has been added to my blog list on the sidebar.

Rowan has decided to return home to The Portfolio Investor blog and retire from his ‘A Punter's Year’ blog. I always enjoy reading Rowan’s blog(s) as the guy clearly has a sense of humour that comes through in his writing and isn’t afraid to wear his heart on his sleeve. He also isn’t afraid to give an honest opinion on services and therefore, I think blogs like Rowan’s help other punters know which services to follow and more importantly, which services should probably be avoided. I’ve added a link to his new blog at the side but I’ll keep the ‘A Punter's Year’ blog on my sidebar for a wee while in case people want to read back.

Before I get started on the weekend results, a quick explanation concerning the results tables that will appear on the blog from now until season end. As discussed on the blog a wee while ago, there is a lot of work going on in the background to improve the offering of The Football Analyst service. I call it a service but at the moment, it’s an email subscription list and a blog where the bets get posted free of charge, so not much of a service but then again, you get what you pay for in this game! :)

Firstly, the odds quoted in the results table now appear as 5.00 for a team that was 4/1 to win. This matches the way the bets are posted but for some reason (don’t ask me why!), I’ve always had my results database set up so that the odds recorded would be 4.00 for 4/1. It doesn’t change the P&L obviously as I just take 1 off the odds quoted to work out the profit on the bet now but something worth knowing in case you look back to previous posts and notice a difference!

One of the main pieces of work I’ve done is add some AH Line results to all my results data. I initially thought about going back and trying to backtest this live using odds portal etc. and choosing the most competitive AH line for each game but that would be far too much work! So, as a compromise, what I’ve done is use my current data to calculate the odds for 3 AH lines. As you know, I already monitor and track Draw No Bet (DNB) which is really just another name for AH0, so all I’ve done here is change all references in my sheet from DNB to AH0. Easy!

I’ve also added AH +0.25 and AH +0.50 to all my results data and tables also. For those not familiar with these AH lines, AH +0.25 means that you win half of your expected profit from backing outright if the game is a draw. AH + 0.5 means that you win if the game is a draw or if your team. AH +0.5 is also known as Double Chance and it is effectively a dutch bet on the draw and your selection to win.

Basically, it’s fairly easy (OK, it took me about 3 hours to suss out the AH +0.25 formula!) in Excel to calculate the odds for all these AH Lines as long you have the odds on your selection to win and the draw odds. Therefore, I now have the results for backing outright and AH0, AH +0.25 and AH +0.50 in my results database.

Every time I post the results up for the systems now, it is going to include the results for these additional AH lines. For the moment, these should be ignored!!!!!

OK, so I go to the trouble of adding all this data to my results and then I tell you to ignore it. Why?

Well, firstly, I don’t give the odds of AH +0.25 and AH +0.50 when I release the bets, so it seems a bit unfair to discuss the results. The weekend was a really good weekend for AH +0.25 and AH +0.50 but it would feel like I’m taking the pis* a little discussing the results on the blog considering I don’t even give this as an option to follow the bets!

More importantly though, AH betting will never improve the edge my systems have and the reason I’m introducing this option it isn’t linked to increasing the edge. I discussed it a little in this post here http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/2012/02/roi-for-show-roc-for-dough.html about comparing the returns of DNB (AH0) and backing outright but this can be extended further into other AH Lines.

However, AH betting has the ability to DESTROY the edge that my systems have and therefore, now isn’t the time to start pondering about how we use AH Lines. Quite simply, there are 2 months of the season left and I need to get us there in one piece. Therefore, all my time needs to be dedicated to keeping my ratings updated and finding the system bets and therefore, now isn’t the time to be discussing AH betting in detail.

Therefore, it is imperative that no one starts considering AH betting until I’ve done the necessary analysis on the systems to try to figure out where and when it may be best to use AH. Now that I have AH results in my results database, I can see quickly that using AH betting on all games will NEVER be a profitable method for my systems and therefore, it’s important that I do a fair amount of analysis and then spend a while educating people about how and when they may use AH betting in future. This will be done in the Summer, probably via this blog.

Anyway, I hope that makes sense and don’t get too drawn into looking at the AH returns on the results I post up. They don’t mean too much at the moment.

Onto the weekend then……

The base results weren’t a disaster and ultimately, a small loss was made, so not the worst weekend of the season (by a long, long way!). I try my best on the blog to not get too distracted by late goals, teams losing 2 goal leads, sending offs, missed penalties, goals not awarded etc. as at the end of the day, over the course of a season, most of my systems have enough bets to ensure that things should level out over the course of the season hopefully. Saturday was definitely one of THEM days though, if you know what I mean.

Chesterfield lost a 2 goal lead at odds of 5.5. Bristol Rovers lost a 2 goal lead at odds of 4.33, with the 2nd goal coming in injury time. Cheltenham missed a penalty to go into a lead against Swindon, lost 1-0. QPR scored a legitimate goal whilst on top against Bolton and went onto lost 2-1 (even though they scored a later goal that was offside!). As Mark Hughes suggested though, if QPR had been given their goal whilst on top in the game, would have been a totally different game from then on. We also had Rochdale at 7.00 and Accrington at 5.00 draw 2-2 against teams at the top of the leagues.

4 of the above mentioned games finished 2-2 and the other one was a defeat for QPR. I’m not saying that we deserved to win all these games but when you look at the odds of the teams we’ve backed in these games, it only takes one goal to go our way and it made it a totally different weekend for the systems.

No point crying over spilt milk though and in the long-run, if we keep finding these sort of bets, I’ve no doubt that we’ll win more than we’ll lose.

Algorithm 1 had 20 bets. 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losers. A loss of 1.5pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.2pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm 2 had 16 bets, 4 wins, 5 draws and 7 losers. A loss of 1.6pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.7pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm 3 had 16 bets, 5 wins, 6 draws and 5 losers. A profit of 1.5pts for H/A betting and a profit of 2.5pts for DNB betting.

With the base ratings struggling, it’s a pleasant surprise that the systems results aren’t worse this weekend!

The established systems made a loss of 7.2pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.4pts for DNB betting. The new systems made a loss of 0.1pts for H/A betting and a profit of 7.4pts for DNB.

Overall, a better weekend for DNB rather than backing outright which is always a sign that you’ve hit too many draws in the weekend. The fact the draws were mainly big priced away teams makes it all the more frustrating really.

I’ll be back tomorrow at 9am with the midweek bets. March is going to be a very long month as there are 5 Saturdays and all of the midweeks have games too, so a pivotal month in the season I suspect for my systems.