Tuesday, 30 April 2013

April 2013 Monthly Review

I think it’s safe to say that given the systems made in excess of 140pts on the 1st of April, it is a fair bit disappointing that by the 30th of April, I’m posting a small profit in this monthly review. I actually spent a little bit of time pulling together my own portfolio’s P&L for March last night as I was thinking it had been a poor month but it has actually been a profitable month. All I knew is I’d lost money for the last couple of weeks overall but this is nothing compared to the money I won at the start of the month. It’s amazing how long a month can feel at times!

So, here goes the review for April-13.

Est Systems

The first time this season when these systems have performed well and the remaining systems have struggled. It was like someone flicked a switch this month and suddenly these ratings started showing glimpses of what they are capable of.

A profit of 82.1pts from 295 bets. The Combined systems had a decent month too, with a profit of 44.6pts from 107 bets.

The ROIs were amazing this month on most of the systems and being honest, the systems had a bit of bad luck this month in my opinion. I was particularly pleased to see 6-21 have a stunning month and a profit of 15.8pts from 60 bets is a great return.

Same comment to 8-21 and 6 winners from 8 bets generated a profit of 9.7pts.

The AH returns for all bets shows that the draw was a pest this month and therefore, this month could have been better if a few of these draws had been wins.

I think these systems have put some of my subscribers through the mill this season at times (myself included) but looking at the overall P&L now for the season, it’s not looking too shabby at all. ;)

New Systems

Was a real month of two halves for these systems. First half was great, second half was rubbish. Overall, add up everything and it’s a profit of 1.9pts from 507 bets.  The combined systems made 13.7pts from 195 bets, so a little better.

Hard to know what went wrong this month. They started the month like they’ve been doing all season and making profits fairly consistently but things dried up late on. Was pleased that they managed to at least post a profit as it keeps the run going of profitable months for these systems (not sure anyone cares about this apart from me tbh!) but hopefully they finish the season a little better.

Misc Systems

A similar story to the New Systems I think. Started the month on fire, looked to be cruising to another very profitable month again but came off the rails a little towards the end. Even so, a profit of 26.6pts from 210 bets is highly acceptable and therefore, I’m not too disappointed.

I made a few jokes last month about the fact the TFA system of the year was definitely likely to be in this bunch of systems but there are a few other systems coming on very strongly as these systems now appear to be treading water. Should be a close call come season end I think.

Euro Systems

I’m really not sure what to make of these systems if I’m honest. A dream month last month, followed up by an absolute disaster of a month this month. The average odds are higher on the Euro systems than the UK systems which probably explains some of the variability but it’s a shame so much of the good work last month has been undone.

Overall, a loss of 83.7pts from 353 bets.  The combined systems weren’t much better, a loss of 37.1pts from 134 bets.

Quite simply, the cause of the loss is seen by the massive losses on E1, E6 and E1-E6. My ratings have had a nightmare month for these leagues. A 26% strike rate is very low given the odds and therefore, with so few winners, it was going to be a poor month.

I’ve said this before but I’m still not convinced about these ratings and more importantly, my systems for these leagues. The results for the season aren’t great after this month and it’s not inconceivable that they struggle to hold onto any profits over the last few weeks. Break-even for these systems would be disappointing I think but it’s not impossible.

We’ll see what next month brings.

Under/Over Systems

A nothing month again (which is a common theme with these systems!) 0.3pts profit from 44 bets. Not sure I can add much. One thing I’d like to track is the P&L by first/second half of the month actually now I think about it. May just be my imagination but I can recall many months where the systems start well, make profits and then give it all away again! Happened again this month.


I think if I was offered this month at the start, I’d have taken it, especially since the Est Systems did much better than all of the other systems. In one way, these systems are the most important to me (been here the longest) as I know many people weight these systems more heavily in their portfolio but that is likely to change after this season, so I guess my attitude should change.

I always try to write these reviews as if I’m reviewing the overall P&L and not the make-up of the P&L and therefore, a profit of 27.2pts from 1,409 bets (1.9% ROI) could never be a good month for TFA as a whole but I think it was probably a little better for most of us following than these results suggest. The losses were on the unproven systems and therefore, hopefully people managed to make a little more profit than the overall results if following a portfolio of systems.

Monday, 29 April 2013

Poor weekend......

A really poor weekend I’m afraid and it stops this month from being a very good month. To be fair, I think it’s still been a good month but early on, it had the potential to be something quite special but the last two weeks have been a struggle.

I’m not sure we had the best of luck this weekend as I said in my email today but luck evens itself out over the course of the season, so not going to moan too much.

I’ll be back soon with the monthly review.

Est Systems

A loss of 21.1pts from 56 bets. Draws were a bit of a killer and backing AH0.5 on all bets was only a 1.94pt loss. The combined systems lost 8.60pts which is a disappointing way to end the month.

New Systems

A really poor weekend for these systems too with a 17.85pts loss from 92 bets. The ratings didn’t do too badly but the combined systems didn’t do too well with the bets.

Misc Systems

I haven’t said this too many times this season but a really bad weekend for these systems, especially the STO systems. I think at times like this, given the season they’ve had, you take it on the chin and move on. A loss of 21.6pts from 35 bets.

Under/Over Systems

Shocking day for these systems. 0 from 5 on the Overs and 1 from 1 on the Unders. A loss of 3.96pts from 6 bets.

Euro Systems

A poor day yet again and the bad run continues. A loss of 17.8pts from 74 bets. Only highlight was the best bet of the weekend winning, all the other higher combined system bets lost.

Overall, a really poor weekend but not a total disaster. A loss of 82.31pts from 263 is about as bad a weekend as I can recall this season. My own betting portfolio had a real nightmare this weekend which has me licking my wounds a little but I’ll try to not it sour the month too much. As I said in the email to subscribers earlier today, I’d have taken the P&L this month if I’d been offered it, so I’ll try to not get too downhearted about the way it has ended.

Tuesday, 23 April 2013

Results Update

A quick update tonight since there are no midweek bets on the systems. A bit of a strange weekend where the overall P&L didn’t move by much (a small loss) but there was a bit of a continued redistribution of wealth between the systems.  The Est Systems did well but the other systems struggled overall and created a small loss. No real damage done and I suspect some people reading this had a good weekend whereas others (myself included) didn’t have the best weekend! Swings and roundabouts I guess.

Est Systems

A profit of 29.71pts from 53 bets. A really good return and the base ratings did very well. A profit on every system this weekend keeps the good run going this month.

New Systems

A pretty big loss this weekend and these systems are suddenly starting to struggle. A 33.18pts loss from 77 bets. The draw was a bit of an annoyance here this weekend but maybe these systems are settling down to some sort of long-term view of performance after outperforming for the majority of the season.

Misc Systems

An overall loss of 1.18pts from 33 bets. STOX and STOY both had decent weekends but the rest of the systems struggled. Can’t win all the time I guess!

Under-Over Systems

A nothing weekend here with a loss of 0.78pts from 3 bets.

Euro Systems

A real struggle this weekend for the higher combined system bets but to be fair, the draw was a nightmare here again.  A loss of 10.2pts from 61 bets but all it took was one of the draws to turn into a win and it would have been a different picture I think.

Overall, a loss of 15.63pts from 227 bets at the weekend. A poor weekend really and takes the shine off a really good month so far.

Be back after the weekend with the next update.

Wednesday, 17 April 2013

An end to the winning run.....

Well, I can’t say I didn’t expect this to occur but the systems have made a loss last weekend and a small loss in midweek. I think the fact they’ve only made a small loss is the key and if I’m being honest, there was a really late goal on Saturday on a team that was heavily selected and if they had held on to win, I would actually be posting a small profit I think, so it’s not all bad.

It does sort of feel like it’s a case of holding onto the profits now but as I’ve said so many times before, I can’t control the number of bets the systems have, so they will continue churning out the bets as they have always done.  We lose the Bsq Prem after this weekend and then League One and Two follow the weekend after, so at least as the leagues finish, there is less time for the systems to do much damage!

Anyway, here’s the results since the last post.

Est Systems

A really sore result with Bradford at the weekend and if they had held on, this update would have been much different. As it happens, a 15.16pts loss from 38 bets isn’t a disaster and given the month so far, the systems can absorb this fairly easily.

New Systems

These systems only had a small loss at the weekend but the midweek fixtures weren’t great here. Again, with the month so far, they can absorb this sort of loss I think but hopefully they don’t lose any more of the profits! A loss of 12.44pts from 96 bets.

Misc Systems

An update to forget for these systems. A loss of 11.09pts from 25 bets.

Under/Over Systems

A 0.10pts loss from 13 bets!  

Euro Systems

A tough weekend again and these systems are now in something of a slump after the heroics of last month!  They really do drive me crazy at times but we’ll see what the next month brings. The next month will determine how much time and effort I need to spend on these ratings this Summer.  A loss of 16.8pts from 100 bets.

Overall, all 5 systems have had a losing week and the P&L takes a bit of a dent. A loss of 55.59pts from 272 bets.

We’re now in the final furlong this season and the bet number will drop after this weekend as we start to reach the end of the leagues. The top leagues continue for another month or so and I’ll be stopping the bets in a month  (not continuing for two Euro leagues in isolation) but I’ll share more on this in the next week or so.

Thursday, 11 April 2013

The winning run continues.......

As the title suggests, it was another good midweek. When my ratings do as well as this in a small set of fixtures, the only worry is that with so few system bets, it was an opportunity missed but I’m maybe being a little bit harsh on the systems. It keeps the momentum going and as I keep saying in these results posts, the next bad run can’t be too far away based on historical experience but at the moment, we’re riding off the back of some positive variance.

Variance is something that is often discussed on here when a bad run hits and it’s simply due to there not being enough bets for the edge to show through. At the moment, the systems are suffering from the opposite effect and although there aren’t a lot of bets, the strike rate is very high (way above historical results) and therefore, a bump down to earth is coming soon I’m sure.

Let’s enjoy this while it lasts though.

Est Systems

23.12pts profit from 30 bets. The combined systems made 10.11pts from 9 bets which is a decent return! A new profit peak was reached on a 6-21 for the first time since the start of March, so it has gone through a tough 5 or 6 weeks at a time when many of the other systems were doing better. 6-21 is a popular system I think, so those following this should be happy again!

New Systems

 A steady return on these systems with a profit of 11.60pts from 34 bets.

Misc Systems

I seem to be saying this every week at the moment but the stars of the show again. A profit of 21.11pts from 24 bets. These systems have turned my own betting portfolio’s performance from being a brilliant season to a near unbelievable season. I keep waiting on them having a bad run and going off form (especially the STO systems) but they just continue to churn out profits. A lot has been written about my systems (mostly from me I suspect) but I think this Summer, when I review the season these systems have had, it will blow people’s minds as to what is possible in this game.

Under/Over Systems

It must have been a good set of fixtures when this system makes a profit! 1 bet, 1 winner. A profit of 1.02pts.

Overall, a profit of 56.85pts from 89 bets. Not much more you can add to that I think. It was easy to make a profit this midweek as there were so few draws but, as I said on the last post when we managed to escape with a small profit from a really tough weekend, being able to keep hold of profits during a bad set of fixtures is more important than making profits during a good set of fixtures.

Be back after the weekend with the next update.

Monday, 8 April 2013

Dodged a few bullets......

I said on the last post that given the run the systems were on, I was sort of expecting a poor spell and this weekend wasn’t great. All 6 algorithms made a loss and from 58 unique bets, there were only 14 winners. That resulted in a 15.68pts loss if someone backed all 58 bets. It was only a loss of 6.8pts if using AH0.5, so the draw definitely was a bit of a pest.

Importantly, as you’ll see below, the systems are actually posting a small profit over the weekend which is quite surprising given the underlying results. Looking quickly, there were 7 bets that appeared 13 times or more on the systems. 5 of the teams won at odds of 3.75, 3.50, 2.25, 2.10 and 2.02.  These results have saved the weekend and if a couple of these games had gone the other way, this update would look a lot different I think.

As it turns out, we appear to have dodged a really difficult weekend (especially in the Euro leagues where the odds on favourites seemed to do pretty well) and therefore, I have to be happy with this results update. The other UK bets that didn’t appear on multiple systems had a shocking weekend and overall, I think we just put this weekend down to a tough weekend.

On the plus side, my own betting portfolio managed a profit this weekend and therefore, I would hope no one did too badly. :)

Est Systems

A profit of 2.94pts from 61 bets. Systems 7 & 8 and 7-21 and 8-21 were the stars with 100% records. There were two bets and two winners and that ultimately has saved these systems this weekend.

New Systems

A similar story to what I said in the intro here but the ratings did badly but the systems did OK. The top 4 combined systems made 12.94pts from 19 bets but the other systems struggled. Overall, a profit of 16.67pts from 114 bets.

Misc Systems

The stars of the show again this weekend. A profit of 18.36pts from 55 bets. The STO systems again did well and it makes up for them not making much profit last Monday when the other systems in the group did well.

I’m really looking forward to reviewing the Home bets on these STO systems again. I said at the end of last season that these were my strongest home bets and the returns look unbelievable this season. The actual returns on the STO systems compared to the banks required are unbelievable and they look something like the systems I thought they would be last season! Again, shows the need for patience at this game……

Under/Over Systems

A really good weekend for these systems and I think they always tend to start months well and then fade! A profit of 2.43pts from 8 bets. Let’s see if they can build on it and at least have a profitable month. I doubt it!

Euro Systems

After an amazing month last month, these systems have started poorly this month with a loss again.  The volatility with these systems is a bit much I think and I think there needs to be some work done on these this Summer, regardless of the results this season. A loss this weekend of 29pts from 108 bets.

Overall then, on a very tough weekend I think, we see a profit of 11.4pts from 346 bets. An ROI of 3.3%, Given the results of the base ratings, you have to say the systems dodged a few bullets this weekend (and a lot of them at that!)

Might put up a few posts this week on plans going forward and how the service is evolving if I can find some time.

Thursday, 4 April 2013

Nice start to April......

A stunning start to the month of April and the last 8 weeks or so have been unbelievable for the systems. It’s quite remarkable in the sense that this season has been the complete opposite to the first two seasons where the systems did much better in the first half of the season and were treading water thereafter. The systems were very average over the first half of the season but have turned it around in the New Year.

I actually chose to stay up very late on Sunday night to do the monthly review before Monday’s games as if things had went really bad on Monday, I would have struggled to review March properly as I’d have been pissed off that April had started badly! I know it sounds silly but I’ve written monthly reviews before after a new month has started and it is difficult to not get distracted by the fact the new month has started poorly and therefore, it makes the review for the previous month harder to write if it was a good month.

Anyway, I should have held off writing the March review till now as I’d have been using even more superlatives than I used in the review!

The Euro systems only had a few games on Monday and there were no winners, so they start the month poorly but the UK systems have got off to a flyer. Traditionally, April has been the toughest month for the systems, so it’s very early (only two days in!) to say it will be an OK month but given the start, there is a little bit of a cushion for the systems if a bad run does hit.

I’ve said this lots of times on the blog but when you are on a run like this, you are sort of waiting for the downturn to occur. I’ve seen thousands and thousands of bets now and when you experience an amazing run (far ahead of the long-term average), the next downturn tends to never be too far away. I’m hoping we can ride this wave for the next 6 weeks until the season ends but I can’t see it. As ever, we’ll see what happens.

Est Systems

I think this is the first time this season when these systems have had a little bit of luck on a decent priced bet and boy, what a difference it makes to the results. One of two biggest bets were 1-0 down with 5 mins left and managed to win 2-1 in injury time. The other big bet were 3-0 up at half time, so it wasn’t all about luck!

A profit of 62.60pts from 57 games. The combined systems made a profit of 34.34pts from 24 bets. This increases the season’s profits on these systems by 50% in one fell swoop! Amazing what a good day can do for these systems in a poor season!

The base ratings made a good profit too and overall, everything appeared to click for a small sample of games. Won’t hit too many days like this in a season but I’ve experienced this a couple of times in 3 seasons and it feels pretty good when it occurs!

It would be great if the systems could build on this for the rest of the month and finish the last full month with a flourish and hopefully go some way to making up for a poor season overall for these systems. 

New Systems

Not quite as good a return on these systems compared to the Est Systems (not said that many times this season!) but still a great start to the month. A profit of 37.08pts from 94 bets.

Misc Systems

A decent start to the month for these systems too with a profit of 21pts from 38 bets. Surprising that STOZ only broke even on a day when every other system made huge profits but given the run the system has been on, it was probably due a poor day!

Under/Over Systems

A lot of bets to start the month but a profit was made. A profit of 1.7pts from 13 bets.

Euro Systems

 The only systems to start the month poorly. 10 bets, 10 points lost. Hopefully it’s not a sign of things to come this month!

Overall then, a really positive start to the month of April. 212 bets and a profit achieved of 112.38pts. An ROI of 53%. No chance of keeping this up this month but hopefully the systems can keep the good run going for a bit longer!

Be back after the weekend with the next update.

Tuesday, 2 April 2013

Patience Rewarded.....

One of the first rules I learnt in my first season of following the systems was how dangerous it is to move between systems mid-season. The other rule I learnt in the first season was how dangerous it is increasing stakes during the season and therefore, it is probably the two rules I’ve drilled into subscribers the most over the last couple of seasons.  Some still ignore my point on staking and use compound staking and this season is probably the first season where it has worked well as the second half of the season has been better than the first half!

However, that’s not to say that you shouldn’t continue to re-evaluate your current portfolio of systems during the season and if you feel like you don’t have enough diversification or if you feel you are overstaking for example, my advice would always to be to readjust your portfolio but quite simply, don’t just jump from one system to another because results look better. The grass always looks greener elsewhere at the betting game I find!

I know from email correspondence over the Christmas period that quite a few people who were heavily weighted towards system 7-22 for example got a little spooked by the slow start this season and decided to increase their workload and follow more systems. Thankfully, as system 7-22 has improved over the season, so have many of the other systems and therefore, it’s been impossible to lose money since Christmas time I think following the systems. Hence, even those who decided to follow more systems and reduce stakes hopefully haven’t done too badly as a result.

Anyway, the reason for this post is to point any readers to the blog written by Steve across at Daily 25. This is the first season Steve has followed the bets from my systems and I’m sure at various points over the season, he’s wondered what all the fuss has been about and why this blog is littered with badges proclaiming to be a decent sports tipster!

One criticism that is often thrown my way regarding the service is that it is too complicated. Too many systems, too many bets and how the hell can anyone maximise profits with the service?

I really get annoyed when people say this to me (I reckon it’s because it has been said so many times now!) but basically, I supply the bets for each system and all anyone has to do is decide which systems to follow in their TFA portfolio. It’s like a pick and mix of systems. Looking at the returns of the various systems over the first 2 seasons (and very nearly 3 seasons now), no matter what you do with the systems, you should be able to make money!

Getting back to Steve’s blog. Steve made the decision this year to follow 5 Est systems and 5 Euro systems with lower stakes. Given the New Systems and Misc Systems have done better this season so far, Steve has basically picked from the worst two sample sets of systems I am running at the moment. However, his reasoning was sound since the Est Systems had the best results coming into this season and the Euro systems probably had the biggest potential coming into this season.

How has Steve done so far this season? I’m sure Steve won’t mind me copying his results from his last post and sharing them here……

 As you can see, a very decent return and even though Steve hasn’t been following the best systems this season, I’m sure he’s fairly happy about his returns. An 11% ROI at the moment is pretty damn good considering it’s to Steve’s prices and I think from reading between the lines, he only uses Betfair and a small selection of bookmakers.

I think that’s the point I’ve raised over and over on the blog and also to subscribers. No one is ever going to build a portfolio of my systems that creates the maximum amount of profit that can be achieved. That’s not the point. The point of my systems is that it allows you to create a portfolio of systems to meet your requirements and hopefully, these systems will do well and you will make money.

I’ve been saying all season that this season has been the toughest season to date and the results have been disappointing. I know for a fact that some services would bite my hand off to get my results this season. Yes, it hasn’t been as good as the first two seasons and I’m sure people are disappointed by this but at the end of the day, if the game was that easy, we’d all be retired by now!

The best advert for the systems I have aren’t the systems results, it isn’t the money I make following the systems, it isn’t the list of honours the service has won and it most certainly isn’t me. The best advert for my systems and the service is the money that other people make following my bets.

Anyway, I hope that shows what can be done using my systems. I will probably share an update of my own portfolio on the blog at the season end but I tend to steer clear from discussing my own results on the blog as I don’t want it to be seen as trying to show what can be achieved. I’m not a fan of using the blog for advertising and this would be a step too far I think!

Next update should be tomorrow evening as I have some games in the Championship tonight.

Monday, 1 April 2013

March 2013 Review

Well, I said I enjoyed writing the monthly review last month and although March hasn’t been anywhere near as good, it’s been good enough to allow me to enjoy writing this review I think. In particular, one set of systems have had an amazing month and given everyone knows that I want these systems to succeed long-term, I think this is a great first step towards another one of my aims with these systems.

I personally have had another stunning month with my own betting portfolioi (3 highly profitable months in a row) and quite simply, if I end the season with the same £ amount of profit I’ve made at the moment, it has been a very, very good season for me. Hasn’t been the smoothest of journeys as I’ve already said but at the end of the day, once you reach your profit target in this game, I don’t think you should beat yourself up about how you got there.  

Anyway, this isn’t meant to be about me, it’s meant to be about the systems.  Here’s the review for March 2013.

Est Systems

These systems had their best ever month last month since the systems went live but they have followed that spectacular month with errr….a nothing month. By nothing, I mean a very uneventful month, no massive highs, no massive lows, just a quiet month. Overall, a profit of 5.1pts from 396 bets.  An ROI of 1.3%.

The biggest profit on a system was 4.3pts on 7-21 and the biggest loss was 5.8pts on 21 and 6-21. Don’t see this happening too often (maybe the first time since the systems went live?) but every bet on system 21 has appeared on 6-21 this month. Interestingly, the extra bets on system 6 hit 8 winners from 12 bets amazingly, so 6 had a small profit this month as a result.

6-21 had a poor month I think but the combined systems overall managed a very small profit of 3.7pts from 160 bets.

I think it was pleasing to see that even though my ratings haven’t had a good month on these algorithms, a few of the higher combined systems had a decent month.  System 7-22 has managed a profit again this month which follows on from a really good month last month. A profit of 4.1pts from 13 bets is an ROI of 31.6% this month which isn’t bad!

7-21 did a good job in narrowing down the 6-21 bets as it turned a loss into a profit but 8-21 didn’t build on 7-21. 7-22 built on 6-22 but 8-22 didn’t build on 7-22.

Overall, it’s hard to draw too many conclusions from a month like this as the higher combined systems didn’t really have enough bets to look at the trends of how the bets appeared on the higher systems.

If this month was being reviewed in the context of the first two seasons, I would probably say it has been a really poor month but in the context of this season, this month hasn’t been too bad at all. It is the second profitable month in a row and at least consolidates the hugely profitable month we saw last month.

Ultimately, whether or not these systems end the season in profit still hangs in the balance. I really hope they can build on this and finish the season strongly but as always, we’ll see what happens. Given the performance of some of the other TFA systems this season, I suspect this will be the last season where we see so much focus on these Established Systems. I expect there are better systems in the TFA system portfolio these days.

New Systems

Another very solid month for these systems and their 6th profitable month from 7 months of live results. This month didn’t ever appear to be a spectacular month at all and yet, we saw a profit of 52.7pts from 630 bets. An ROI of 8.4%.

The third algorithm I ever built was System 31 and it has had an amazing month this month.  A profit of 30.1pts from 121 bets. System 41 actually had a really poor month in comparison and this algorithm suffered a loss of 13pts from 127 bets.

Quite amazing that two DNB algorithms I’ve built could have such a varying degree of success in a single month! Basically, if we analyse the results of 31-41, we can see that system 31 had 24 more bets than 31-41 and yet, it created a profit of 31.8pts from these 24 games!

I remember saying last season that I hoped the 3rd algorithm could prove to be one of my best algorithms and yet, it was always in the shadow of system 6 and 21 last season. This season, it has been in the shadow of system 41 for the main part but after this month, system 31 is standing out as the best performing algorithm at the moment. Being honest, system 21 and 41 aren’t too far behind but still, system 31 is having a storming season and has just had an amazing month.

Although system 41 struggled this month, the strength of the ratings weren’t bad and system 42 had a 7.9% ROI this month. Not bad considering it was picking games from a sample that had lost 10%!

Although 31-41 made a small loss, the other 5 combined systems made a profit and the 6 combined systems made a profit of 23pts from 256 bets. Not great but it does build on the performance of the season to date. Not every month can be a massive month, even for these systems!

Misc Systems

Have I ever told you that I love the STO systems and they are my best systems? Well, yeah, I told you all last season and unfortunately, they were shit last season! Anyway, they’ve repaid my faith many times over this season and they have contributed to another decent profit for the Misc systems this month.

A profit of 44.3pts from 336 bets is a really good return. 55.2pts profit from 150pts for the STO systems and a loss of 10.9pts for the other 3 systems.

The star of the show was STOZ this month which somehow created a profit of 29.2pts from 64 bets! Amazingly, the AH returns were also massive this month and when the system wasn’t hitting winners, it was hitting teams who draw which meant it wasn’t too far away from an even better month I think.

The results for STOZ this season now are just unreal and admittedly, I always thought the order of the 3 STO systems would be STOY, STOX and then STOZ but STOZ did best last season and has also done best this season. Just shows what I know!

I guess if I was picking the system of the season now, STOZ would probably be it although I honestly can’t remember what sort of betting bank I suggested for these systems if following them individually, so it may be that there are other systems with a higher ROC this season. We’ll find out at the season end as that’s when I’ll be reviewing all the systems and we can do some comparisons.

Last season, this set of systems had 5 winning months and 4 losing months over the season. This season so far, 6 profitable months and 1 losing month. Not too sure what went wrong last season (well I do know, all the aways were draws instead of wins as the Homes did well!) but this season has seen a big improvement. I’ve mocked myself a few times for some of the quotes I’ve used about these systems when I first created them as I honestly thought they could be the best systems I’d created but I changed my mind after the first season obviously! Maybe I wasn’t too far out?

Under/Over Systems

A loss of 3.6pts from 41 bets. Started the month amazingly well, 5.5pts profit from the first 22 bets. 9.1pts loss from the next 26 bets. Says it all, they flatter to deceive. I hate these systems.

Euro Systems

Finally, these systems produce something that mirrors the backtested results I spent all Summer discussing on the blog. My record at building systems with an edge is probably as good as anyone who’s ever looked at football betting in a number of years I suspect but until this month, I was scratching my head about these 4 European Leagues.

So far, the systems haven’t been a disaster but going into this month, they were showing a small loss overall. I’d already made my mind up that I was going to have to start from scratch again in the Summer and have a second shot at trying to crack these European leagues as I honestly thought I’d built a dud set of rating algorithms here.

As it stands, it may well be true that I have built a dud set of rating algorithms as the base ratings aren’t showing any sort of significant edge but thankfully, when I cross refer the algorithms, we’ve seen some amazing results this month.

Overall, it was a profit of 161.7pts from 464 bets. An ROI of 34.8%! The 6 combined systems made a profit of 86.6pts from 191 bets at an ROI of 50%!

I guess the reason we’ve seen these results this month is down to my ratings finally coming good in these leagues. Algorithm one made a 20.5pts profit from 83 bets and algorithm two made a profit of 17.9pts from 92 bets.  It’s easy to make profits when your ratings are doing well and we’ve seen that this month I think.

Some of the ROI’s on the combined systems are just mad and E2-E7 (the equivalent system to 7-22) managed to hit 14 winners from 24 bets with an average odds of 3.50. Not easy to do I think. A profit of 21.4pts from 24 bets and a stunning result.

It’s hard to knock these systems after the month like this but the question has to be….where the hell have they been all season?

I exchange emails with a few members regularly about these systems and I read the blogs of those following and it’s safe to say that those following probably had more faith in these Euro systems than I did. I hadn’t lost faith completely but knowing how good I am at building ratings and systems, I was disappointed with myself that I’d finally failed and I appeared to had built a shit set of systems for these European leagues.

It’s still early days and the jury is still out but possibly, we may have just been seeing a fair bit of variance so far this season and although this month isn’t going to be repeated, it may be the case that once we get to the end of the season, we conclude that overall, this season hasn’t been a disaster for these systems. Of course, we could see a couple of losing months to end the season and we deduce that these systems are rubbish, they’ve fluked this amazing once in a lifetime month and overall, they have no edge.  We’ll see what happens.


Well, the month of March may not be as good as Feb but it’s not bad as well I think. A profit of 260.2pts from 1,874 bets which is an ROI of 13.9%. 

Given the Est Systems didn’t have that great a month, I get a feeling some reading this may be a little disappointed that they’ve not caught some of the profits on the other systems but I think we need to continue to think long-term at this game. I overlooked the New Systems this season and with hindsight, it was maybe an error but then again, why jump in with both feet on a set of new systems with no live results? Likewise, I know lots of people are watching the Euro systems and hoping these prove the real deal for going forward and this month is the first step on that journey I think.

I suspect EVERYONE is now sitting up and taking notice of the STO systems and therefore, although some people may not be making the best use of the service at the moment, these systems aren’t going anywhere. I’m going to have to do a few tweaks to the service and some of the ratings and systems need tweaks here and there I think and we’ll look at that this Summer. However, the future looks pretty bright I think……..