Monday 30 April 2012

Month hinges on the Manchester Derby

Apologies for the formatting on the last post. Blogger has changed the way posting works and I’ve not quite got to grips with it yet!

Just a quick update before tonight’s game. I managed to avoid any carnage at the weekend despite having so many bets.  Bournemouth are trying their best to ensure the systems have a losing month and for the second week in a row, they’ve let a 1-0 lead slip when they have appeared on all 20 systems.  I hadn’t noticed this until I was updating the results but Bournemouth were also a 7/22 bet the previous weekend against Bury!  That’s 3 weeks in a row they’ve been a 7/22 bet and they’ve not managed to win any of the 3.  Very frustrating.

Feel a little sorry for those only following system 7-22 as in the last 23 bets, they’ve only been on the loser four times. The draw has ensured that the system has had a losing month with the last 3 games finishing in draws.

I’ll do a proper results post tomorrow but it is actually quite interesting reading. As you know, I tend to place some emphasis on the monthly P&L. I know it doesn’t really mean anything but I’ve been really proud of the fact that the systems have shown great consistency over the last two seasons on a monthly basis. 

Well, amazingly, this whole month hinges on the game tonight. If Man City win, the established systems and the new systems will have another profitable month.  More importantly though, the combined systems also need a Man City win to finish the month in profit. These are the systems which are reported on by the SBC and at the moment, they have had a winning run of 6 profitable months.  If Man City win, that becomes 7 straight monthly profits this season. If they don’t win, it will be a loss of 0.6pts on the month for these systems!  :(

In a way, given system 7/22 lost this month, I sort of feel like the combined systems deserve to have a losing month. I’d feel a little bad saying it’s another profitable month, knowing that those who only follow 7/22 would have had a losing month.  In addition, the established systems will have a had a profitable month, regardless of whether or not Man City win tonight.  That means that the combined systems would then fall back into line with the established systems which would mean a profit in 13 of the 17 months to date. 

Being honest, whether it’s 13 or 14 winning doesn’t really matter too much to anyone apart from me I suspect but I thought it was worth sharing!

Saturday 28 April 2012

Unbelievable Jeff......


Here's the email I sent to subscribers on Friday afternoon.

Hi guys.

Taking this opportunity at my lunch to drop you a quick note regarding tonight’s bets. 

I can’t say this for sure as my odds are based on Wednesday evening at about 10pm and I’ve not seen them since (looked a little on my phone at 6.30am flying back from Ireland!) but having now worked through the systems bets this morning, at first count, I reckon I’ve got value bets (which appear on at least one system) in 40 games this weekend!

I had a feeling this may happen as basically, so many teams have nothing to play for, the bookmakers price them up a bit differently and my ratings disagree with them.
I had a quick look back and 12 months ago, there were 62 system bets and only 6 winners on April 30th last year which is the corresponding fixture set.  A loss of 40pts.

There are going to be in excess of 200 system bets this weekend, so there is a potential of carnage this weekend.  The reason for the higher number of bets is all the changes I implemented which I’ve discussed before, so I would expect more bets than last year but not 3-4 times as many!

I’ve not got the bets on the systems as yet (will do it later this afternoon) but I suspect we’ll see the busiest day of the season this weekend.  I’m suspecting many of the teams will have seen a drop in odds since Wednesday evening (other services will have all issued by tonight at 8pm), so some will be dropped but I would guess more would be added too as bets if odds have moved in their favour.

I’m already playing smaller stakes than earlier this season and have done through all of March and April, so I’m not overly concerned for myself and as I always say, every bet will still count as a proofed bet, so if you want to match my proofed results, ignore this email completely.

I just think I’d feel guilty if the weekend went really badly and people asked me what happened last season and I said the same thing happened then too.

In case you wonder, if I go back another season, it’s 28 winners from 86 bets and a loss of 23pts.  I’ve looked back even further quickly and it gets hazy if I’m honest as leagues change over time and the same sort of data means less the further I go back but if I look at the end of April, start of May, I struggle to find a winning day in most seasons!

You could argue we’re due a decent day in this fixture list (last season was close to being a good day but there were a lot of draws!) but on the other hand, you could say my ratings struggle on this day.

Whatever happens, the bets will be sent out as normal.

I’m hoping for a brilliant weekend as the systems are going for their 7th profitable month in a row which would be an amazing achievement for a set of football systems!

Let’s hope the Gods are smiling on us!

And here's the bets for this weekend.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 28th-30th April
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Lincoln Lincoln 3.55 2.57
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Southport Grimsby 2.06 1.49
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Braintree Braintree 5.80 4.34
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Derby v Peterborough Derby 2.00 1.46
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Colchester v Tranmere Tranmere 3.06 2.16
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Chesterfield Yeovil 2.80 2.00
28/04/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Rotherham Rotherham 2.92 2.06
28/04/2012 League 2 Barnet v Wimbledon Barnet 2.10 1.52
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Crawley v Hereford Hereford 10.51 8.47
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Oxford v Southend Southend 3.28 2.34
28/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Dagenham Dagenham 9.05 7.17
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
28/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Fulham Everton 1.86 1.35
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Sunderland v Bolton Bolton 4.00 2.87
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Hearts 4.20 3.04
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
29/04/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 1.82 1.34
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Barrow v Newport Newport 2.89 2.08
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Lincoln Lincoln 3.55 2.57
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Southport Grimsby 2.06 1.49
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 Championship Southampton v Coventry Coventry 11.00 9.16
28/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Sheff Wed Brentford 4.33 3.15
28/04/2012 League 1 Bury v Oldham Oldham 3.45 2.46
28/04/2012 League 1 Colchester v Tranmere Tranmere 3.06 2.16
28/04/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Leyton Orient Hartlepool 2.30 1.64
28/04/2012 League 1 Preston v Charlton Preston 3.85 2.72
28/04/2012 League 1 Rochdale v MK Dons Rochdale 4.50 3.29
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Chesterfield Yeovil 2.80 2.00
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Northampton v Gillingham Northampton 3.40 2.44
28/04/2012 League 2 Oxford v Southend Southend 3.28 2.34
28/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Dagenham Dagenham 9.05 7.17
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
28/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Crewe Crewe 3.50 2.49
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Lincoln Lincoln 3.55 2.57
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Lincoln Lincoln 3.55 2.57
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Forest Green York 1.91 1.39
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Burton Burton 3.79 2.74
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
28/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Fulham Everton 1.86 1.35
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
28/04/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Hearts 4.20 3.04
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
28/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Fulham Everton 1.86 1.35
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
28/04/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Hearts 4.20 3.04
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50
System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Bath Bath 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Lincoln Lincoln 3.55 2.57
28/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Mansfield Mansfield 3.51 2.54
28/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Portsmouth Notts Forest 1.83 1.31
28/04/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bournemouth Bournemouth 2.90 2.04
28/04/2012 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.51
28/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Bradford Bradford 5.00 3.68
28/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Port Vale Port Vale 6.58 5.10
30/04/2012 Premiership Man City v Man Utd Man City 2.25 1.63
28/04/2012 Premiership Wigan v Newcastle Wigan 2.88 2.07
28/04/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Inverness Inverness 3.25 2.27
28/04/2012 SPL Motherwell v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 2.50


Tuesday 24 April 2012

Losing my marbles......

As the title suggests, I’m clearly in need of a break very soon!

I made an error last weekend where I somehow (don’t ask me how!) managed to only post the bets for 3 systems instead of all 20 systems.  Considering it’s a copy and paste job, I must have just selected the systems and thought I was at the top of the page and copied and pasted and somehow missed the fact there were very few bets. I’ve got Steve to thank for pointing that out although I suspect a few others may have done so on Friday evening but considering I was out, they would have been left in limbo until Saturday morning.

Yesterday, I sent an email out to subscribers confirming there were no bets this midweek but also that I was going to have to change the time of the email this week to 8pm on Friday.  No issue there but I then came on the blog and said I’d post up the bets on here at 6pm on Friday!  

I’ve Les to thank this time as he kindly pointed out that one of the timings is clearly wrong. :) 

The 8pm time is correct as I won’t even have the bets done by 6pm on Friday.  Therefore, I’ll need to post the bets on the blog on Saturday morning.

I’m hoping that if I give the susbcribers a full 14 hours of a headstart, everyone will be on the bets by then (even my Aussie followers!). Therefore, the bets will appear on Saturday morning at 10am on the blog.

In case you don’t read the comments to the posts, there was an interesting comment on my recent results post from Fizzer

“Good analysis as always Graeme.

I think algorithm 2 has a history of giving good results. My view is that the selections it has that don't go into the 6-21 combo are generally better than the selections algorithm 1 makes that don't go into the combo, so it’s the one I follow.

Good luck with final weeks.”

Being honest, until this season, I hadn’t really noticed a big difference between algorithm one and two.  Last season, System 6 had an ROI of 4.3% across 573 bets and system 21 had an ROI of 4.7% across 489 bets. 

However, now I look back at my notes and the changes made in the Summer last year, dropping all short priced aways and restricting Premiership Aways was always going to impact the second algorithm more as this algorithm played with shorter away bets than the first algorithm anyway. In addition, the home bets on the second algorithm have always been better than the home bets on the first algorithm, so now that I’ve improved the aways a bit on the second algorithm, it makes sense that it has performed even better than algorithm one this season.

As for Fizzer’s comment about the bets on 21 that don’t appear on 6-21 being better than the system 6 bets that don’t appear on 6-21, he’s spot on.  However, I’d not recommend anyone using this strategy if I’m honest as the results for the teams on either system that don’t appear on 6-21 aren’t great which isn’t surprising.

This season, there have been 212 bets that appeared on system 6 that didn’t appear on system 21.  Can you guess the profit from backing these?  No profit I’m afraid but a mighty big loss. A loss of 25pts from these 212 bets.

There have been 81 bets that have appeared on 21 that haven’t appeared on system 6. It’s a profit of 4pts from these 81 points (they were loss making before last weekend!). 

Therefore, although Fizzer is right that the system 21 is better than 6, backing teams that don’t appear on 6-21 isn’t a strategy that anyone should be using looking at the returns this season.  Looking back historically, 21 and 6 were both loss making using the same idea last season, so it’s definitely not a strategy anyone should be using!

I remember in the first year of my systems last season, Andrew (The Value Bettor) decided to take a small interest in the systems.  His idea was to back 1pt on a team that appeared on system 6 or 21.  As you can probably tell from reading the above, this isn’t a good idea!  Hence, he was staking 1pt on a team that only appeared on system 6 say and yet, he was staking the same 1pt on a team that appeared on every system.  We all know that this sort of level staking can never work as the bad bets will pull down any profits you make from the good bets.  Needless to say, system 6 was in profit, system 21 was in profit and yet, Andrew’s strategy was losing!

I’ve discussed this before on the blog but it is VERY easy to turn a winning system into a losing system if you try to do something that goes against what the systems are trying to do. Andrew’s strategy in effect was picking out the worst bets every weekend (along with some good bets) but clearly, this strategy is never going to work as there are more weak bets than strong bets in a season!

If any people reading this do subscribe to the service for next season and want to look at things like this during the summer, I’m happy enough to help out with the analysis in order for them to find a strategy that’s optimal.  I’d much rather they used my analytical skills to get something that worked rather than making something up themselves and end up losing whilst others are winning.