Tuesday, 10 February 2015

Monthly Review for January 2015

(I wrote most of the below before the nightmare that happened at the weekend. This basically means we have had two nightmare weekends in a row, one to finish off January and one to start February. I’ll save my comments about February until I update the first set of results for February!)

If it wasn’t for the mess that happened last weekend, I’m sure the tone of this monthly review would have been a little different. Being honest, I shouldn’t let it bother me too much and as I’ve said a few times before with monthly reviews, it tends to be the end of the month that dictates the tone of the posts rather than the overall results in the month. Human nature I suspect to dwell on the loss in the last week rather than the previous 3 weeks of profit but anyway, this post won’t be as jovial as it should really have been considering the P&L results this month.

Looking at the season results to date, it’s still not anywhere near as good as the previous seasons although of course, we still have 4 months left to hopefully get back to something like the profitability levels in previous seasons. There are lots green shoots within the overall P&L and the results of the Euro systems for example have been above expectations (my expectations anyway!) but the UK Draw and Euro Draw systems have struggled from day one this season.

I think it feels to me like we’re now on an even keel and hopefully we can push on for the remainder of the season.  Saying that, given how tough this season has been generally, wouldn’t be surprised if this doesn’t happen at all and we just end up having a rubbish season. Hope not though!

Est Systems

Here’s the results from algorithm 1:

In terms of points won, it’s a record for algorithm 1 in a single month although the ROI isn’t as high as we’ve seen before for a single month. It’s nice to see all value bands make a profit and I guess ideally, I would have liked more bets in the higher value bands but not sure I can complain too much. Bets with 5%+ value made a profit of 13.6pts from 32 bets and this is about as you can get I think. A common theme this season has been the unexpected performance of the low value bets in some months and we can see it again here on this algorithm. A great performance from these bets and shows that there are potentially some profitable low value bets on the algorithm and the key has always been to try to identify them amongst the other bets that are low value and probably not the best bets.

Here’s the split by Home and Away:

Not happened too often this season but Aways are where the majority of the profit has been made on this algorithm and again, it’s hard to be too critical given the returns.

Here’s the results from algorithm 2:

In terms of points won in the month, it’s the 2nd best month ever (behind March-12 with 25.1pts profit). Value bands were nowhere near as pretty though with the vast majority of bets in the low value band. The value ratings haven’t worked well all season on algorithm 2 and we’re seeing it again here. A phenomenal performance to hit a 45.3% ROI from 45 bets although as always, I wish more of these bets were in the higher value bands.

Here’s the split by Home and Away:

Homes again dominated the P&L on this algorithm and I think there is definitely something to consider for those using value ratings when looking at Homes and Aways. A 5% Away bet could be a team priced at 8.00 when I think they should be priced at 7.62 and a 5% Home bet could be a team priced at 1.80 when I think they should be priced at 1.715. Both 5% value bets as defined by my ratings but I suspect long-term, we’ll make much more money backing the short priced team here than the long priced team. We already know my ratings find value in outsiders a little too easily and my ratings find it much harder to find value at the front end of the market. Therefore, I think we need to take this into account in our staking.

I think when applying value filters, we need to do something to look at Homes/Aways and possibly, it may be the case that Home low value bets are much more worthwhile than Away value bets but I’ll do the analysis at season end to see if this is true or not.

So, with both algorithms having phenomenal months, I’d be hoping that the Est Systems have capitalised on this and had a good month also. Here’s the results from the 11 systems:

The highest number of points won by the systems in a single month since they went live which is something I never thought I’d say again if I’m honest. Also the 4th highest ROI in any month and therefore, a dream start to 2015 for these systems after a poor 2014. To put the month in perspective, this is more pts profit than the systems managed in 2014 or 2013 over the course of the year!

If I was being picky, I would say it’s disappointing that system 22 had poorer month than the other systems and this of course impacted systems 6-22,7-22 and 8-22. However, given the troubles these systems have had over the last couple of years, I’m just pleased they still had the chance to pull this sort of month out of the bag in total and therefore, not too concerned by the lower profits on a couple of systems.

Overall, a great start to 2015 for these systems with a profit of 140.5pts from 367 bets.

New Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm 3:

A small loss on Homes, offset by the profits on Aways. Given the results on the first 2 algorithms, maybe a little disappointing that the best algorithm I have didn’t have a better month but I think algorithm 3 tends to be very steady generally whereas the other algorithms do tend to be a bit more boom and bust.

Over half of the profits have come in the lowest value band and similar to the first 2 algorithms, the profits are not really coming from where I would ideally want them in terms of the value ratings. Again though, I’m not going to give my ratings a hard time about making a profit and any profit is welcome at the moment.

Here’s the results for algorithm 4:

A massive 19.2pts profit for low value Aways which more than makes up all of the profits on this algorithm. Coming into the season, low value bets were loss making but similar comments to above, the profits are not really coming in the right places on any of the algorithms this month for those using value ratings for either staking or filtering purposes.

Overall, 2 profitable algorithms and therefore, we would expect the systems to have had a profitable month.

Here’s the results from the 11 New Systems:

10 of the 11 systems have been profitable and an overall ROI of 18.2% is not to be sniffed at.

System 32 had an amazing month which is pretty rare for this system but on the other hand, system 42 had a poor month and made a loss. Long-term, system 42 is better than 32, so as always, things are never straightforward and it depends on what systems you follow. System 31-42 is a popular system and made 1.9pts profit from 36 bets. System 32-41 is a less popular system and made a profit of 16.2pts from 29 bets.

Overall, a profit of 84.9pts from 467 bets.

Here’s the results for the Misc Systems:

All 6 systems were profitable but the 3 SGM systems struggled yet again. I can’t honestly remember the last time these systems put together a good run and I’m not too sure what these add to the portfolio of TFA systems at the moment.

The 2 systems which have performed above expectations this season are systems 21-31 and 6-21-31 and these have been steady systems now. Looking through the historical seasons, these systems do achieve 5%+ ROI each season with around an average ROC of 50% each season. Pretty steady returns I think and both systems are underplayed amongst the subscriber base I suspect.  

System 6-32 is a system that hasn’t really done anything for a long time, mainly as a result of system 32 not being very profitable but it’s nice to see the system make a nice return this month to give the overall P&L figures a boost.

Overall, a profit of 67.5pts from 267 bets.

Here’s the results for the UK Draw Systems:

A mixed bag really and only 2 of the 11 systems have been profitable. These systems have not got going all season and although they started the month well, it didn’t end well and it’s another loss.

I’ve said this before but I just think these systems haven’t had the rub of the green this season. Of course, the more bets the systems have and the longer this run goes without any profit, the more doubts start to creep in about the returns last season but as always, we’ll know more when we get more data.

Overall, a loss of 33.3pts from 182 bets.

Here’s the results for the Euro Systems:

A bit of a mixed bag for these systems again and 9 of the 11 systems were profitable but being honest, only 6 systems had any meaningful profit. Unfortunately, these systems started the month amazingly well but about 45pts were lost on the last day of the month! Very frustrating if I’m honest but as always, I’ve no control over when the profits occur, as long as they occur in the long-run.

Overall, a profit of 69pts from 318 bets.

Lastly, here’s the results for the Euro Draw Systems:

Well, here’s a surprise, a profit of 36.3pts and all 11 systems being profitable. A long way to go to get back to break-even but small steps and all that.

Overall, a profit of 36.3pts from 308 bets.

Well, in total then, the month saw a profit of 431.5pts from 1,909 bets. An ROI of 22.6%.

The biggest monthly profit the systems have ever achieved in a single month! 

Thursday, 5 February 2015

Results for last weekend to close off January

Before I get on with looking at the January monthly review, a quick update on the last set of results for January.

Unfortunately, my comments in the previous posts about the likelihood of a loss occurring did in fact come true again. We all know there is no correlation between what happens with our previous results and what happens next but all I know is that after 5 years of playing this game, when my own P&L reaches a new peak, I tend to suffer a correction. It’s like a game of snakes and ladders and anytime I hit a big ladder, I always hit a snake soon after. I’ve sort of got used to it now but it still annoys me when it happens!

As always, we need to look longer term and although it wasn’t a great weekend, the month wasn’t too bad and the season looks a bit better than it did at the end of December.  Will pick this up in the monthly review post.

Here’s the results up to the end of January (I’ll keep Sunday and Monday’s results until the first results update for February).

Est Systems

A loss of 13.18pts from 56 bets. System 21 took a massive hit here with only 4 winners from 18 bets.

New Systems

A loss of 22.7pts from 77 bets. System 31 took a bit hit on Saturday with only 3 winners from 21 bets.

Misc Systems

Only 7 winners from 45 system bets and a loss of 26.69pts. 0 from 9 on system 21-31 and 0 from 8 on system 6-21-31.

Draw Systems

Only 7 winners from 50 system bets here and a loss of 26.35pts. Only 1 winner from 9 on algorithm 1 unfortunately.

Euro Systems

Only 8 winners from 63 bets and a loss of 45.1pts. 1 winner from 10 on the first algorithm and 1 winner from 11 on the second algorithm.

Euro Draw Systems

Only 9 winners from 39 bets and a loss of 7.6pts.

6 sets of systems, covering 11 leagues, Homes, Aways & Draws and all 6 sets had a nightmare on Saturday.

I saw plenty of tweets with pictures of P&Ls for January where the P&L fell off a cliff on Saturday and seeing the results above, you can see why.

Overall, a loss of 141.62pt from 330 bets. An ROI of -42.9%! OUCH!!!!!

Well, that brings January to a close. Next post in a day or so will cover the monthly review.