2010/2011 Season Review

I think as a summary, it isn't fair to just state the results for the season as a whole as the results after Christmas don't exactly fit in with the results before Christmas. Hence, I would be misleading everyone if I showed one set of results as a summary for the season. Here's the results this season, including a split pre/post 31/12/10:

The table at the top shows the season results for all my systems. The second table shows the results at 31/12/2010 and the third table shows the results from 01/01/2011 to the end of the season.

Overall, the season's results show an ROI of 8.9% for my systems if backing 1pt on the selection to win that appears on each system. Interestingly, backing 1pt on the Draw No Bet option has won a measly 2.5pts more and has a return of 9%.

Looking at the graph of both these options this season, it looks like this:

I think this graph paints an interesting picture and you can see the impact of the draw from the start of 2011. The effect of DNB is when the H/A graph is falling, DNB tends to remain steady or drops more slowly but when H/A is increasing, DNB increases at a slower rate.

That probably leads us onto the results by month of the season as this also tells the story pretty well I think:

I think the one highlight here is the fact that the systems tended to not have any steady months this season. Simply, you either did very well or you did very badly on a monthly basis. The first 4 months were amazing, March was amazing and so was May. However, February was terrible and April was the worst month ever! January was the only month where you could say there was a small profit or loss this season.

I think that will do us for a season review. The one place I've not touched on as yet is the performance of the individual systems but that's the first place where I intend to start my building for next season.

The only question I can't quite answer yet is....Am I happy with my first season's football modelling? If you had offered me a 9% return at the start of the season, I would have taken it I think but once the season got underway, 15%+ was the target and I was ahead of the target for most of the season. However, February and April ended that idea and at the end of the day, 9% across so many bets isn't to be sniffed at.

I'll hope to beat it next season...............