Sunday, 11 October 2015

2015/16 Season Results to end of September

It feels like it has been a long time since I’ve written a blog post. My last post was at the start of July, so it has been a 3 month break for the blog. Being honest, the break wasn’t planned to be quite as long as this but I’ve been very busy over the Summer (more so than usual) and therefore, writing blog posts wasn’t too high up my priority list. We’ll at least get monthly results posts for the next 8 months or so but if time allows, I’ll try to do other update posts but given my lack of time these days, it’s probably highly unlikely.

This post covers the results for the first two months of the season. In reality, it was one weekend in August and the whole of September, so it’s hardly two months of results but this post covers all results up to the end of September for this season.

One bit of consistent feedback I had over the Summer was that many subscribers didn’t really enjoy my regular results updates and comments on Twitter, on the blog or in emails and therefore, I have definitely cut down my comments on social media about how things are going. I suspect last season was a painful one for others as well as me and me moaning about it on Twitter and continually updating on my personal losses probably didn’t help those following keep their confidence that things would turn around. I suspect if things were going well, people wouldn’t mind reading about it but for whatever reason, when things aren’t going well, they don’t want to hear about it!

It is also for this reason that the blog will be getting monthly results updates. I have thought this for a while but updating results frequently actually makes for a bit of a rollercoaster ride and I think looking at things monthly is often enough. I still try to update the results after every set of fixtures but I won’t be updating results on the blog any more frequently than monthly.

If I look at this season so far, the first two weeks were amazing and the systems were showing big profits after a bit of a dream start. Roll on another two weeks and it is pretty much break-even this season and therefore, we have already had a bit of a rollercoaster so far this season but looking at the monthly P&L gives a slightly boring picture but it has been anything but boring this season so far!

Anyway, here’s a quick rundown of the results so far.

Est Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm 1:

A profit of 7.7pts from 157 bets but quite quickly, we can recognise that all the profits have been made in the low value bands which continues the pattern from last season. All bets with a value % of 10%+ has made a loss of 13.2pts from 28 bets. However, low value bets with a value of less than 10% has made a profit of 20.9pts from 129 bets.

Here’s the results for algorithm 2:

A loss of 2.7pts from 133 bets. No clear pattern by value bands aside from the fact that the bets with higher value have again performed poor so far this season. The sample sizes are very small though.

A bit of a mixed bag with both algorithms and it’s not easy to see how this would have translated into a profit or loss on the combined systems. Here’s the results for all systems:

Overall, a profit of 12.1pts from 485 bets. 4 of the 5 systems have made a profit with only system 21 making a small loss.

I didn’t touch on it above but the issues on both these algorithms have come from the Home bets so far this season. Here’s the P&L for the 5 systems combined split by Home/Away bets:

As you can see, Aways have done really well so far this season and have a profit of 51.2pts at an ROI of 19.2%. Unfortunately, Homes have really struggled and it’s a loss of 39.1pts at an ROI of -18%.

Overall, a solid enough start but it’s disappointing that the Home bets have performed so poorly thus far this season. These tend to be less volatile than the Away bets even though they are less profitable but it has been a tough month or so for these bets. Hopefully things improve as the season progresses.

New Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm 3:

Overall, a profit of 0.7pts from 142 bets. Pretty much a break-even month. The same issues were apparent here as on the first two algorithms. All the profits from Away bets were wiped out by losses from Home bets which is disappointing.

The value bands show most bets have fallen into the lower value bands and the profits on the Aways were cancelled out by the losses on the Homes. Hard to draw any conclusions here.

Here’s the results for algorithm 4:

Not too many surprises here but another loss for algorithm 4. I would be disappointed if it didn’t make a loss I suspect! A loss of 6.5pts from 126 bets. I refreshed the underlying systems behind the algorithm during the Summer but it’s like trying to polish a turd I think. No matter what I do, I can’t turn this algorithm around into having an edge.

So, with mixed fortunes on the algorithms, how did system 31-41 do? Here’s the results for the New Systems:

A small loss on system 31-41 of 3.2pts from 99 bets. Did it’s job I guess of filtering out some bets from system 41 although clearly filtered out the profitable bets from system 31 that didn’t appear on system 41. Ideally, I think you need to try to use system 41 to filter out the worst bets from system 31 as if system 41 has no edge, you don’t want to be backing the bets on other systems that system 41 has.

Overall then, a loss of 8.9pts from 367 bets. Not a great start but I’ve had worse starts to the season on these systems before!

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for these systems:

Overall, a loss of 14.8pts from 380 bets. 3 of the 5 systems made a loss with systems TOX and STOY in particular having poor months.

Again, it’s too early to get too carried away with these results but I guess seeing STOZ doing better than the other two systems bucks the trend from last season. Out of these 5 systems, system 6-21-31 is historically the best system and therefore, I’d expect this to perform the best out of these systems again this season.

Not the best start for these systems but it’s early days and plenty of time left this season for these systems to hopefully build some profits.

Draw Systems

Here’s these results:

Overall, a profit of 17.6pts from 183 bets. An ROI of 9.6%. 5 of the 8 systems made a profit with 3 systems showing a 0.2pts loss. At first glance, it looks like a very solid start to the season for these systems but underneath, it has been a rollercoaster month where the profits gained early on in the month were mostly all given back by the end of the month. Can’t help but feel it should have been a much better month but hey ho, it’s hard to moan too much when a profit is made.

It has been a pretty uneventful start to the season with a profit of 6pts from 1,415 bets. Hardly a great start to the season but then again, given some of the monthly losses last season, I can’t moan too much about making a profit in a month! The Euro bets start from October and it will be interesting to see how these bets do this season.

Here’s the results in the usual format showing the results so far this season and the overall results for all systems since inception: