Sunday, 25 November 2012

Last Weekend & Midweek

This is an update from last weekend and the midweek games. I’m a little bit behind with the results updating as has become the norm. Been another frustrating weekend this weekend and if the Euro systems keep hitting the number of draws they are hitting, I’m going to be breaking records I suspect as the draw % on these systems is unbelievable at the moment but it will hopefully settle down soon!

Anyway, I’ll update this weekend and the midweek coming up later this week as well as try to do the monthly report for November. Should be an interesting read as it has been anything but plain sailing again this month but if this game was easy as my systems make it look at times, everyone would be doing it!

Established Systems

A profit of 2.98pts from 148 bets but it was a poor Saturday, a great Sunday and then a good midweek that has created this small profit. It continues to be a very frustrating time for the higher combined systems with 7-22 and 8-22 again creating losses. I know it’s only variance as these systems are the best systems I have seen over the first 2 seasons but this season, they aren’t clicking at all. They’ll keep plugging away and hopefully they’ll hit the sort of spell we’ve been accustomed to over the first couple of seasons but at the moment, they are making the game seem difficult!

New Systems

A profit of 0.37pts from 187 bets. The same trend as the Est systems and a decent midweek has helped them break-even on the week. These systems continue to impress and although it’s still early days, they continue to look more impressive than the Est systems this season. Hopefully the balance swings the other way soon but we’ll see what happens.

Misc Systems

A remarkable performance for these systems and a profit of 38.43pts from 116 bets. These systems are really coming into their own this season (about fuc*ing time!) and for me personally, a few of these systems are holding up my portfolio returns this season. I always had a lot of blind faith in the SGM systems since they went live and although they have generally disappointed me, I have continued to follow them in the hope they couldn’t do any worse than last season and so far, they have done well this season. They aren’t as flashy as most of the other systems but they have a real solid look about them and seem to be fairly consistent this season.

Under/Over Systems

I’ve not got a clue what’s going on with these systems all of a sudden but they have suddenly started performing well! 6 from 7 correct since the last update to turn around the month and amazingly, the overall system is in profit this season! Don’t ask me how it has happened as I’ve no idea but a profit is not to be sniffed at when you see the mess my other systems are making at times.  5.51pts profit from 7 bets.

Euro Systems

I’m running out of words to describe these systems and the draws they are hitting. I can only point to the results again. A loss of 20.4pts from 123 bets but a profit of 11.7pts if using AH0.5. I’ve said this lots of times since I started running my football systems but the draw is the enemy. If you are hitting lots and lots of draws, you’ve no chance of making profits and this is happening with these bets this season.

I’ll run it through at the end of the month if I can find the time but some of these systems must have an amazing ROI from backing the draw.  It is very frustrating and although the results now look shambolic for backing outright, I think the systems are closer than it appears. However, they’re judged on the results and unfortunately, they have been a bitter disappointment since going live.

The higher value bets are underperforming dramatically so far and this is pulling down the results of the higher combined systems enormously. 

The only thing that’s keeping my hopes alive with these systems is the base ratings are profitable and therefore, it shows they’re not far off. They just can’t narrow the bets down at all and ultimately, although the higher systems are picking teams from a winning pool of bets, they keep selecting the wrong bloody teams!

It’s still early days this season and these bets will have a lot more action post Christmas where the majority of bets are but after 15% of the bets I expect this season, let’s hope the next 85% of bets are a bit better.

(Unfortunately, I can tell you that this weekend has been badly impacted by the draw again. I make it 17 draws from 30 bets on E1-E7 to E3-E8 with some games to come. Unbelievable strike rate again and I dread to think the profit from backing draws on some of these system this season. )

Overall, a profit of 26.89pts from 581 bets. Considering how tough going it is at the moment, it’s pleasing to see the systems grind out any sort of profit but again, the systems I’d like to see generating the profits aren’t doing it. The profits this time are on the Misc Systems and Under/Over systems and these were the poorest performing systems last season, so it just shows why keeping a long-term view at this game are important.

I’ll be back later this week with the weekend and midweek update. At a high level, it has been small loss on the Est Systems, a small profit on the New Systems, a small loss on the Misc Systems and a small profit on the Under/Over sytems. The Euro systems are in the balance with a couple of games to come tomorrow night and one on Tuesday, so we’ll see what happens.

Monday, 12 November 2012

Season Review to Date

As I said on the last post, I think it’s important to stand back and take stock of the situation at times. I’m as guilty as anyone if I’m honest of paying too much attention to recent results and thinking things are worse than they appear to be. I think that comes from being so close to the ratings, finding the system bets, betting on them, going through an emotional rollercoaster most weekends and then having to spend endless hours updating results and then starting again with the ratings for the next set of fixtures.

The discipline needed at this game to make money is far greater than what most people could ever imagine and at times like this, I’m in danger of thinking I’m wasting my time this season with the footie betting as I’m staking large amounts most weekends to not make much headway at all or has been the case recently, to make small losses. In these circumstances (I’ve been here a few times before with the footie betting and footie modelling as regular blog readers will know), my answer is usually to stand back and take a look at how things have gone over the season. It doesn’t change the profit I’ve made or the results the systems have had and I don’t know why but it usually helps me keep things in perspective by doing this.   I could even go further and look at things over the last couple of seasons but I only tend to do that when I’m really, really low about the performance of the systems. I’m not quite there yet!

So, how do the results look this season?

I think the below table gives us all the information we need on the season to date. So far, there have been 3,104 bets this season. I think we’ll have around 15,000 system bets this season in total, so I suspect we’re about 20% of the way through the season. Here are the results:

As always, there is a lot of information here and it isn’t easy to digest at first glance, so I’ll try to break it down into parts for us to look at.

Established Systems

At a high level, a 9.8% return across 870 bets and a 12.6% return for the combined systems across 332 bets isn’t a bad start to the season.  I think my only concern is the performance of systems 6-8 and the knock on effect this has on the combined systems.

A 1.8% ROI on system 6 isn’t great and although it improves as you move up to system 7 and system 8, returns of 2.7% and 5.5% don’t set the pulse racing I’m afraid. On the other hand, system 21 has a 14.3% return and system 22 has a 24.3% return and this is above average I suspect. So, we have the first rating algorithm a little below average, the second rating algorithm a little above average and we end up with some interesting results on the combined systems.

6-21, 7-21 and 8-21 performance is in line with expectations and as you filter the bets, the results improve. 7.1%, 17.9% and 21.1% are the returns as you move down the systems and this is nearly exactly in line with plan. If these systems finished like this for the season, I’d be happy.

The issue lies with 6-22, 7-22 and 8-22. The returns are 29.3%, 8.9% and -7.9%. It’s hard to explain or even understand why this has happened. Historically, if system 6-22 had that sort of return, the return of 7-22 and 8-22 would be astronomical but so far this season, it hasn’t happened.

My worry looking at this is that 6-22 is unlikely to continue with that sort of return and therefore, 7-22 and 8-22 may take a hit when 6-22 adjusts back to a normal return. Of course, these systems didn’t catch the upside, so maybe it’s pessimistic to think they’ll catch the downturn but it does worry me a little. 7-22 has only had 28 bets and 8-22 has only had 19 bets, so it may be the case that it is simply variance and as we get more bets, these systems will do what they have traditionally done and filter 6-22 successfully. Even if 6-22 does hit a barren spell, 7-22 and 8-22 may still filter the bets well and miss most of the losers, so it is too early to panic too much about 7-22 or 8-22 yet.

Overall, combining the systems does improve the returns from the single systems and therefore, most of the trends on these systems are OK. The correlation between 7,8 and 22 is the only thing that looks strange so far but maybe we’ll see a correction soon.

New Systems

These systems have definitely been the surprise package so far this season. Before I looked at the backtested results for the systems, I was very keen on the idea of cross referring systems 31-33 (which were live last season) with a new set of systems called 41-42 as I always felt like 31-33 were waiting on another set of systems to come along, built in the same manner that could help them realise their potential. Of course, the backtested results last season were poor (5.4% ROI overall and -1.7% ROI for the combined systems) and that led me to believe I may have been leading us up the garden path with believing these systems could be any good.

10 weeks of bets and all of a sudden, it looks like I may have paid too much attention to the results from last season and ignored the amazing results from the previous 5 seasons. What I would say in my defence is that we are only 20% of the way into the season, so it would be wrong to draw any conclusions at this time but so far, these systems look pretty decent (and that’s an understatement!)

15.3% ROI across 1,193 system bets in total and an ROI of 19.8% over 468 combined system bets. Fantastic returns and when you compare these returns to the Est systems, they have wiped the floor so far this season with the Est systems.

If I’m honest, I still struggle to believe the results on these systems and all historical evidence points to algorithm two (system 21) being my best rating algorithm, followed by algorithm one (system 6) with the other two algorithms (Systems 31 and 41) lagging behind. Therefore, the only algorithm that isn’t upholding their side of the bargain is algorithm one and therefore, I suspect once algorithm one clicks into gear this season (if it ever does!), then it will catch up with algorithms 3 and 4 and we’ll see the Est Systems overtake the New systems this season.

So far, so good.

Misc Systems

I was pleasantly surprised when I updated these results for the season to date as I give these systems quite a hard time. I think this is a hangover from last season and I was disappointed with these systems last season and the returns and they didn’t exactly start this season great either. However, now I look at the results, they aren’t bad at all and when you see some of the returns on the other systems in the portfolio this season, these systems are holding their own.

A 9.4% ROI across 571 bets is a decent enough return. The trends are strange though on some systems and this is a hangover from what has happened so far with the Est. systems this season. 21-31 wouldn’t be expected to perform better than 6-21-31 and yet, it has a return of 11.9% against 6.8%.

The most interesting for me is System TOX beating System STOY. All historical evidence points to STOY being stronger than TOX and yet, TOX has a 17% ROI and STOY has 0.5%!

These little quirks are partly due to variance I suspect but they are also due to the fact the correlation between the systems hasn’t shown the same trend this season as the last two seasons. In particular, the single Est systems have been very good at picking out teams that other systems may not agree with and it hasn’t impacted the returns too much. For example, system 21 is doing better than system 6-21 which is very strange also this season and this has a knock on effect onto some of these Misc Systems.

Overall, a decent start this season for the Misc systems and they are performing better than last season. Early days though but it does justify my confidence in continuing with these systems after the poor performance last season.

Under/Over Systems

Not going to say much here. A loss of 4.4pts from 95 bets and an ROI of -4.6%. I think break-even is about the best these systems can do this season and I’ll need some convincing to continue with these systems for another season. The overall ROI since they were live is down at 4.6% from 568 bets. I give these systems a hard time and being honest, the return isn’t bad but at the end of the day, I don’t have any belief in these systems generating a return long-term.

Euro Systems

The impact of the draw so far this season is clear to see in these results. At a high level, 2.2% ROI across 375 bets isn’t a disaster but unfortunately, this drops to a 6.1% loss across the 156 combined system bets.

If you look at AH0 (Draw No Bet) returns though, it is 7.5% and 5.4% across both sets of systems, so much better than what the outright returns are showing.

The other thing to highlight here has to be the filtering of the bets and how poorly it has worked so far this season. E1 has a 22.7% ROI and E6 has a 16.2% ROI. This really is dream returns for a base rating algorithm and without any filtering, these systems are doing themselves proud.

Unfortunately, E2 takes that amazing return and turns it into a 19.8% loss. Strangely, E3 takes that loss and turns it into a 12.9% profit! All very strange happenings with this first algorithm and the only conclusion you can draw is that it is simply variance. 30 bets on E2 and 15 bets on E3 are really nothing and it’s too early to draw conclusions.

Likewise, E7 takes the return on E6 and turns it into a loss of 19%. 

The only thing you can be sure of looking at these returns on the single system is that E1-E6 is going to do OK but the other 5 combined systems will struggle!

A 15.3pt return on E1-E6 is more than eaten up by fairly chunky losses on E1-E7 to E3-E7. Interestingly, all the 6 combined systems are showing small profits to AH0.5 betting, so it’s a clear indication that the draw is proving costly on these systems at the moment.

Again though, variance is playing a part and quite simply, the impact of the draw will dilute once we get more games on these systems I hope. Either that or we can just all back the selections as draws as we’ll make big profits!

Overall then, that’s a quick rundown of the systems so far this season. I’d be lying if I said it had been a good start this season but then again, maybe it’s simply a case of expectations getting out of control and should we really expect 45 degree P&Ls all the time, consistent monthly profits or dare I say it, winning seasons every season on all systems?  I think the last part is key to this. If I was only giving out bets on system 7-22 this season, I’m sure people would be pulling their hair out, looking at the results, questioning whether I knew what I was do, whether the ratings had lost their edge, whether the systems were no good any more and so on.  As this post shows me (and those reading it), there isn’t too much wrong this season. Yes, things haven’t exactly gone to plan but I’m sure people have had worse starts to a football season than we’re experiencing here!

As always, any questions or comments, post them up or email me directly.

As a bit of fun, I have ordered the results by system so far this season, based on ROI. How many of us are following systems in the top 10 this season so far?  Not too many I would have thought!

Catch up of results

I’ve managed to spend a fair bit of time over the weekend updating the results for the various systems over the past week or so. I hate falling behind with the results updating as I really pride myself on being able to track the results closely and in a timely manner as this provides full transparency for the service and the results. Hopefully I won’t fall too far behind again but given the way the last few months has gone, I’ll be amazed if I can keep on top of things like I did for the first couple of seasons. I’ll try my best though!

This results update covers 3 sets of fixtures. It covers last weekend (UK and Euro), midweek (UK only) and then the weekend past (UK and Euro). Hence, there are a lot of bets here and a lot of results to wade through. 

Before I get into the results detail, due to the fact there are no midweek games this week, I’m going to use my midweek to provide a quick review of the season to date. I know I provide daily updates of the results as well as monthly updates but sometimes, it does no harm to stand back and look at the season to date. It hasn’t exactly been plain sailing this season (far from it!) and a lot of the trends that were apparent in the first two seasons with the systems hasn’t been there so far this season and I’m sure that’s causing a little bit of anxiety amongst members of the service. I’m guessing this as it is causing me a little bit of anxiety, so I suspect I’m not alone!

I’ll touch on the these points in the season review to date though and therefore, I’ll stick to just updating the results in this post. Most of you following the systems will be fully aware of some of the trends this season but it does no harm if I point them out to everyone.

So, here’s an update of the recent results.

Established Systems

Another period of moving nowhere for these systems and they are frustrating me just a little. I know it’s better to standstill at times than move backwards but these systems are performing below par compared to the first two seasons. Of course, it is probably just variance and considering some of the bad periods these systems have had historically, this period feels like it’s nothing other than a quiet spell for the systems but it still frustrating at times.

There have been 186 bets and a loss of 0.31pts has been made. No damage done thankfully but then again, no headway has been made either. You can see that the AH returns are slightly better than the outright returns and again, this is frustrating to see. Quite clearly, the systems are hitting too many draws at the moment.

Overall, a lot of bets to move nowhere again and hopefully things pick up in the second half of this month.

New Systems

If the Established systems are frustrating me at the moment, then the New systems are continuing to surprise me! Another decent start to the month for these systems and a profit of 51.7pts from 243 bets. Amazingly, the AH returns drop off a cliff and quite simply, these New systems are hitting plenty of winners and losers which of course, is good news if following outright but not so good if using some form of draw coverage.

Considering that there are a great amount of selections that are appearing on both the Est systems and the New systems, it is amazing that the results over a couple of hundred of bets could be so different. The games that the New Systems are selecting that the Est Systems aren’t selecting are clearly doing very well which is frustrating for me and most of you guys following I suspect.

Given the returns last season for the New systems were so poor in backtesting compared to the live results of the Established systems, you have to believe that the Est systems are suffering from adverse variance whereas the New systems are experience positive variance.  Likewise, you can probably draw the conclusion the New systems were very unlucky last season to only break-even I suspect and we are now seeing a better indication of these systems.

My only worry though is that when the Est systems struggle, it is usually the case that there are too many draws which means that the AH returns get better and the outright returns get worse but these New systems seem to either be hitting winners or losers. Hence, more draws would reduce the outright returns and not really improve the AH returns too much, so it does appear to me that the New systems are maybe getting a little bit of luck on their side at the moment. We’ll see what happens over the remainder of the season but I’m not fully convinced by the New systems as yet.

Misc Systems

Although I’m pleased that these systems have generated a decent return since the last update, it makes the results from the Est Systems even more frustrating to me. We know that these Misc systems are nowhere near as good as the Est systems and it is very rare for these systems to have a better return than the Est Systems over any period of results. This season, some of these Misc systems are doing better than some of the Est combined systems and that is unheard of. In addition, all of these Misc systems use the Est systems to generate the bets on these systems, so the fact the Misc systems are doing better than the Est systems has to be down to variance and good luck!

Anyway, a profit of 24.83pts from 155 bets on these systems. A solid start to the month but these systems always tend to be a bit of boom and bust in my eyes, so I wouldn’t bank on these profits continuing at this rate! Likely to get better or worse if experience is anything to go by.

Under/Over Systems

I’d even go as far to say that it is rubbing salt into the wounds that these systems have actually created a profit this month so far.  A profit of 3.86pts from 30 bets this month is a nice steady return but considering the mess these systems usually make, it is amazing!  Similar to the Misc Systems, I wouldn’t expect these profits to continue if historical experience is anything to go by but we’ll see what happens.

Euro Systems

Well, if the Est Systems were frustrating, the Euro systems have me tearing my hair out (and I don’t have too much left these days!). At a high level, a loss of 6.7pts from 197 bets isn’t a disaster but when you see where the losses and profits are being made, it is sooooo annoying! Basically, all of the profits are coming from the high odds winners who only tend to appear on E1 and E6 (and hence E1-E6) but as you start filtering out the bets to get the stronger bets, things are going badly wrong. The weekend past had 3 very high value home bets. All 3 teams dominated, all 3 teams couldn’t score in a brothel and all 3 games finished 0-0.

Using draw coverage is all fine and well on Aways but for Home bets, you can’t really use any draw coverage and therefore, draws are a nightmare for these systems. I dread to think how many draws these systems have had this season (a crazy amount!)

For example, system E3-E7 has had 10 bets this season. Bear in mind this is the strongest bets these Euro systems have. 10 bets, 3 winners, 6 draws and 1 loser. A nightmare really and when you are hitting 60% draws, you have no chance of making profits (unless you are backing the draw I guess!)

I said before the season started that I was wary of draws on the Euro systems as historically during backtesting, draws have caused some issues with profitability over spells of bets and this season has been no different. Again, backtesting would indicate that nothing outside the norm has happened (well, aside from 60% draws on the best system) and hopefully things revert back to the long-term soon but with a new set of systems, it does worry me a little bit when you see a period like this so early on.

The strike rate on the high value bets is terrible, the strike rate on the weaker bets (especially the high odds teams) is amazing and therefore, you have to assume this is variance causing this. Either that or we should just be backing these big priced Euro aways at 5/1+ as these are creating all the profits so far!

Overall then, since the last update, a profit of 73.38pts from 811 bets. If anyone has made any profit at all since the last update, they have clearly been following the wrong systems this season based on the historical experience! I’ve managed to give back a good chunk of my profits for the season to date and I’m looking forward to when the positive variance starts coming my way as I could do with some good fortune……..

Next post will be a review of the season to date.

Saturday, 10 November 2012

October 2012 Monthly Review

As the title suggests, this is the monthly report for October 2012. I’ll cover all 5 sets of systems in this review of the month. I did say a few weeks back that I would have liked to do a separate post for each set of systems but lack of time means this isn’t an option.

Established Systems

At a high level, the profit of 12.7pts from 410 bets generated a return of 3.1% on the month. The combined systems made a profit of 4.6pts from 157 bets for an ROI of 3.0%.  Hence, it wasn’t a disaster but it wasn’t the most pleasing month.

I’ll start with the positives. It is the 10th straight month of profits for the combined systems and it is the 17th profitable month from 20 months of live results. Based on these two facts alone, I can’t be too disappointed that the systems haven’t exactly set the world alight this month. When things don’t go well, to generate any sort of profit is an achievement and in that sense, I’m not too downbeat about the month.

However, when you look at the results by system, it is very frustrating this month.

Firstly, algorithm two has had a storming month. System 21 generated a profit of 16.3pts from 71 bets and system 22 has generated a profit of 6.2pts from 27 bets. Both these results generated a return of 23% on the month and therefore, a really good performance from algorithm two this month.

The issue in the month lies with algorithm one though. System 6 generated a profit of 2.2pts from 101 bets which if I’m honest, isn’t a disaster. Usually, when system 6 has a month like this, systems 7 and 8 will take the bets, weed out the worst performing bets and we end up with systems 7 and 8 having a good month.

System 7 managed to take the 101 bets from system 6, find the 35 strong bets and turn a 2.1% profit into a 32.5% loss. Ouch!

To only hit 8 winners from 36 bets on system 7 is very poor and a loss of 11.7pts. It is the 2nd worst month that system 7 has had since it went live which shows how bad the month was.

System 8 didn’t really have much chance after the mess system 7 made of things and system 8 made a loss of 5pts from 18 bets.  This was the 3rd worst month that system 8 has had since it went live.

Based on what I’ve said regarding system 7 and system 8, it is actually quite astonishing that the combined systems managed to make any profit on the month!

When you analyse the results though, you can see that all the profits were generated from 6-21 and 6-22 which makes sense. If 7 and 8 were doing their best to pick losers, then 7-21 to 8-22 didn’t have much chance of a profit at all and it shows in the results.

7-21 to 8-22 only hit 18 winners from 69 bets and therefore, a loss had to be made. The fact it was only a loss of 12pts is a bit of an achievement when you think how bad systems 7 and 8 were this month!

Thankfully, 6-21 and 6-22 bailed out the combined systems this month and when you add all 6 systems up, another profit was made for these systems.

New Systems

Interestingly, many of the same trends that were apparent with the first two rating algorithms are apparent with these DNB ratings for this month. At a high level, a profit of 9.9pts from 562 bets to generate an ROI of 1.8% across all systems.  The combined systems didn’t have as much luck though and it was a loss of 6.9pts from 210 bets this month.

Given the first month these systems had this season, this month hasn’t been a disaster and at one point, I thought the systems were going to give most of the profits away they made in September but they ended the month well and to achieve any sort of profit on the month is quite pleasing I think.

The base ratings did their job well and systems 31 and 41 both had good months. A profit of 7.5% on algorithm 3 and a profit of 13.6% on algorithm 4. However, trying to narrow down these bets was quite difficult and interestingly, even when 31 and 41 agreed on the bets, they didn’t agree on the winners as often as I’d like!

System 32 did the same sort of thing as system 7 and managed to take a winning set of ratings and pick out too many losers to create a loss on the month. System 32 only hit 7 winners from 37 bets which is poor considering it was picking from a sample which had 30 winners from 93 bets!

Interestingly, system 33 did an amazing job and taking the 7 winners from 37 bets, the system picked out 16 bets and hit 5 winners! Hence, the 21 bets that dropped off system 32 before making it to system 33 only contained 2 winners. Makes me smile seeing stuff like this as this shows that even though not a lot went right this month, it wasn’t all bad.

System 42 did even worse. System 41 had a profit of 13.6% and yet, system 42 turned this into a loss of 1.5% when narrowing down the bets.

The combined systems were a bit all over the place and 3 of them made profits and 3 of them made losses. Overall though, a loss was achieved.

Summing up, not the greatest month for these systems but after the fireworks in September, a steady month is no disaster. The overall ROI for the season to date is still amazing on these systems but as I keep saying, it’s too early to draw any conclusions. So far, so good though.

Misc Systems

A bit of a nothing month for these systems if I’m honest. A profit of 5.9pts from 249 bets just about sums up the month. 4 systems made small profits, 2 systems made small losses.

If I’m being positive, it at least consolidates the profits from September and they’ve not done any damage during a tricky month for the systems in general but the more I see these systems, the more they disappoint me.

Interestingly, two months into the season and the ROI across these systems is nearly identical to the ROI these systems achieved last season. These systems won’t damage your P&L I suspect in the long-run but then again, they won’t make you a fortune either.

Anyway, an OK month and we move onto November to see what these systems do next.

Under/Over Systems

I’m fed up moaning about these systems. I don’t regret too much with the my football modelling but trying to build systems for this market is one regret I do have I think!

Another small losing month and I can’t help but feel the systems are just going to end up making small profits/losses every month as I don’t believe they have an edge. Maybe they do and it’s simply the fact I don’t like betting on these markets myself that is clouding my judgement but I just feel like it’s like betting on a toss of a coin every game and with the high overround in this market in the low leagues, the systems would need a big edge to show any form of profit in the long-run.

Anyway, the results show a small loss of 3.1pts from 41 bets this month. The systems are running at an ROI of only 4.2% now since they went live last season and compared to the other systems I’m running, these systems are the black sheep of the family.

I’ll keep going with them until the end of the season to see how the fare in the longer term but as time goes by, my confidence in the systems diminish!

Euro Systems

Well, the first month of live results for these systems and at a high level, a small profit was achieved.  Given the systems started with days of -11pts, -21pts, -5pts, -8.3pts, +3.1pts and -13pts, it seems like it’s been a great month to actually end up with any profit at all!

A profit of 15.1pts from 178 bets is a solid start but a quick look at the AH returns shows why it has been a tricky first month for these systems. I was fully aware before the season started that the draw is likely to be a pest on these systems and that has been the case this month. Even so, I can’t complain too much about the month’s profits.

The combined systems started with 2.6pts profit from 73 bets which again, is no great profit but then again, it beats a loss.

It’s too early to draw any conclusions from these systems as they only have one month of live results behind them but it’s been a solid enough start.

Overall then, I think that summarises the month of October. If September was a great a start to the season, then October has been a month of consolidation with probably a little bit of the profit given back from the gains made in September but it hasn’t been a disastrous month by any means.

Let’s see what November brings…….

Results Update - 30th & 31st October

Apologies for the lack of updates on the blog again. Been a very busy time at work which has meant early starts and late finishes for me most days for a few weeks now. This has basically meant all my spare time is used updating the football ratings and ensuring I can get the bets out on time. I’m just about managing to keep on top of the 6 rating algorithms I run these days but it comes at a cost of doing regular blog updates concerning the results. I’m hoping to get up to date a little on the blog this weekend.

As the title suggests, this is a quick update from the midweek results two weeks ago. There were only European bets as there were no UK leagues in action.

Cagliari winning easily ensured it was a profitable end to the month for the European systems in their first month of live results.

The results are shown in the table but it was a profit of 6.4pts from 27 bets.

My next post will hopefully be the monthly report for October which is about a week overdue!