Sunday, 30 September 2012

Had Worse Weekends!

A quick update from the weekend as I want to keep the in depth thoughts until I do the monthly review later this week. 

I was actually late in sending out the email this weekend as there were so many possible bets and with the odds fluctuations on Thursday being quite dramatic, I was adding and deleting games right up until the time I sent the email out.  Quite crazy really but I really believe that you have to play this game properly and therefore, as the odds move, the teams move between systems. Anyway, it was fun and games for me right up until I settled on the bets and finalised the odds.

In total, there were exactly 350 system bets this weekend and this would be a big weekend in terms of building momentum for the season or the systems digging a hole they would have to try to get themselves out of over the next few months.

Well……let’s just say that I’ve had worse weekends!

Here’s the usual run-down of results:

Established systems – 115 bets with 52 winners. A profit of 46.65pts.

New systems – 147 bets with 74 winners. A profit of 110pts. Yes, 110pts!

Misc systems – 77 bets with 26 winners. A profit of 14.03pts.

Under/Over Systems – 11 bets with only 3 winners. A loss of 4.71pts.

Overall, 350 bets and a profit of 165.97pts.  Not a bad weekend to finish off the month.

I’ll leave it there for tonight as it has taken about 2 hours to update the results whilst the Ryder Cup is on and it’s time to settle down and cheer on the Europeans.  

I’ll be back in midweek with the results from the midweek but more importantly, with the September review. Did the systems manage to achieve their 9th monthly profit in a row this month?  

Wednesday, 26 September 2012

Quiet Midweek

A decent enough set of results in midweek overall although there were very few systems in action.

A quick rundown of the results:

Established systems – 1 winner from 5 bets for a loss of 1.40pts. A single loser on the combined system 6-21 unfortunately as Southport could only draw.

New systems – 10 winners from 17 bets providing a decent profit of 15.60pts. Dartford are fast becoming one of my favourite teams in the Bsq Prem and they managed to win again. They do seem to be consistently underrated by the bookmakers this season.

Misc systems – 2 winners from 6 for a small 0.52pts profit.

Under/Over systems – 2 losers again on the Under system for -2pts.  The Under system seems a little erratic if I look at the results recently. It hit 10 from 11 correct during April-12 and then finished the season with 1 correct from 11 and has started this season with 2 winners and then 6 straight losers. The last 6 losers has seen 27 goals scored which makes me chuckle considering it is aiming for under 2.5 goals! 5 of the last 6 games were in the Bsq Prem and the league had 9 Overs from 12 games last weekend and another 8 from 10 Overs in last night’s games. Trying to find Unders at the moment in that league seems quite difficult!

Overall, another 30 systems bets have produced a profit of 12.7pts. Once we get this weekend out of the way, I’ll get back in the routine of doing monthly reviews and we can see how the season has started. So far, so good but this weekend will determine whether this month ends up being a profitable month or a losing month. The combined systems are going for their 9th profitable month in a row as well as a full calendar year of monthly profits (Sep-11 was the last losing month), so hopefully they can navigate this weekend without doing too much damage!

Sunday, 23 September 2012

Weekly Update - No Damage Done!

As the title suggests, not a lot has happened since the last update and importantly, as we tiptoe through the tricky first few weeks of the season, no damage has really been done which is a bonus after the start the systems had last season! 

It was a fairly busy week with a lot of bets as we had the League One and League Two cards during the midweek fixtures and then this weekend, all the UK leagues were live apart from the Premiership.  Since the last update, there have been 307 system bets, so how have things went?

Well, I think you can split the results into two sets of fixtures. The League One and Two fixtures during the week were absolutely brutal and from 9 different games, the systems found 1 winner, 1 draw and 7 losers! After this, I was a little apprehensive about the weekend matches, knowing that there would be a lot of system bets but thankfully, things went much better.

If we look at one set of systems at a time, here are the results below:

Established Systems – 36 winners from 97 bets and a profit of 4.39pts since the last update. Algorithm one has struggled on both sets of fixtures and losses were achieved by system 6 on both sets of fixtures. Thankfully, algorithm two performed better this weekend and system 21 came to the rescue.  Overall, not much damage done and you can never be disappointed with a small profit.  The combined systems have done OK and have made a profit of 6.83pts from 32 games, so another solid performance from these systems to keep a little momentum going this season.

New Systems – A nightmare midweek with 29pts bet and 29pts lost. A better weekend managed clawback some of the losses but overall, a small loss since the last update. Only 45 winners from 146 bets and a loss of 7.72pts.

Misc Systems – A similar story last midweek and 12pts bet, 12pts lost. A better weekend though and this has ensured a small profit has been achieved since the last update. 20 winners from 55 bets and a profit of 4.63pts.

Under/Over Systems – Unlike the rest of the systems, last midweek was fine with 2 from 2 winners but the weekend only saw 2 winners from 7 bets. Overall, 4 winners from 9 and a loss of 0.53pts overall since the last update.

Overall, from the 307 system bets in the last week, a profit of 0.77pts! Not exactly inspiring stuff but the key systems are doing OK and more importantly, the trends from the last two seasons remain apparent with the Home bets in particular on some of the systems continuing to look pretty decent from the small sample seen so far this season.

It will be a quiet midweek this week with only the Bsq Prem games but it will be another busy weekend I’m sure.

At the moment, it’s hard to find the time to do any sort of meaningful posts if I’m honest and with so few weeks of the season gone, any insight would be pretty limited also.  I think the first analysis point will be at the end of the month when I can look back on the first month and see how the season has started. That will be after the weekend games. 

I'll be back with an update either later this week or after next weekend.

Sunday, 16 September 2012

Weekend Results Update

Another set of fixtures completed and similar to the first couple of sets, the only league where my systems could have any qualifying bets was in the Bsq Prem. I was slightly apprehensive this Summer about the way the early fixtures would fall with the other UK leagues starting later. Last season, my ratings for the Bsq Prem were terrible in the first 4-5 games and it contributed to a substantial loss in September last year. Therefore, knowing the first 3 sets of fixtures would only cover the Bsq Prem, it was fingers crossed my ratings would start better.

Thankfully, it has been an OK start and I’ve managed to avoid any disasters I think. My ratings have actually been slightly better than the results they’ve achieved if I’m being honest. A few selections have either played poorly when I backed them and bounced back next time (Dartford yesterday) or played great when I selected against them and then played poorly next time (Gateshead yesterday).  It’s hard to believe Dartford lost so badly to Gateshead in midweek when I was on Dartford and I was slightly miffed that I missed Tamworth yesterday against Gateshead but the Gateshead defeat of Dartford (who were the form team in the league) meant that their rating received a considerable boost after midweek. Take away that midweek game and I’d have had Tamworth at 5/1 against Gateshead yesterday.

It’s these little twists and turns with ratings that 99.9% of people following can’t appreciate I think as they don’t see the ratings as closely as I do. If the Dartford v Gateshead game hadn’t taken place in midweek, Dartford would have been a 7-22 Home bet yesterday and we’d have caught Tamworth against Gateshead too yesterday at big odds. Thin lines at times between success and failure at this game.

Saying all of the above, yesterday wasn’t a bad day at all. I said in the email on Thursday that Woking were the best bet this weekend and they didn’t let me down. Unfortunately, I didn’t get much else right and it was a pretty tough day in the Bsq Prem I think.  5 of the 12 games were draws which ultimately makes it a difficult day to make much profit at all.

Here are the results:

Established systems – A good day I think overall, given what I have said above.  16 winners from 37 selections and a profit of 10.7pts overall. Always nice when the systems 7-21 to 8-22 do well as I know these are followed by many subscribers in one way or another.

New systems – A more difficult day for these systems and only 13 winners from 47 selections. A loss of 6.80pts.  The draw played a part here as you can see by the fact that AH0.5 was profitable overall for these systems.

Misc Systems – A similar story here where the draw played a big part. Only 8 from 24 correct which equates to a profit of 0.2pts overall but AH0.5 was a profit of 6.20pts.

Under/Over system – Just the one bet here but it was a winner. A profit of 1.05pts for the Under system.  2 from 2 this season so far but very early days.

Another 109 bets and another small profit eeked out but as I said on the last post, when the other leagues get started, the ups and downs will be much greater than we are seeing at the moment! This feels like the calm before the storm I think.

There is a full midweek card for League One and League Two this midweek, so we’ll have the first system bets in these leagues tomorrow evening. It will be a nice change to be backing teams in other leagues other than the Bsq Prem!

I’ll be back later this week with an update of how the midweek bets perform. 

Monday, 10 September 2012

Results Update - 4th Sep & 8th Sep

Well, it feels like it has been a long time coming but finally, the blog is back in action.  It was never intentional to have such a long break away from the blog in the last few weeks but I probably said everything I needed to say on the blog very early on this Summer.  When I think back to the reviews of the systems and the development of the Euro systems, I wonder how I managed to find the time.  Actually, I was wondering where my Summer went the other day and now I remember…….

Anyway, the first system bets were released to subscribers for the Bsq Prem games last Tuesday and another set of bets were released for the weekend games in the Bsq Prem.  It’s always a slow start for my systems each season as I wait until 6 games are played to allow my ratings some time to settle down. It will be quiet this weekend again with only the Bsq Prem games taking place but from next midweek, we’ll have League One and League Two games included and soon after, the SPL and Championship join the party.  The Euro systems then follow soon after starting with the French league if I remember rightly.

As I said earlier this Summer, the blog is going to be used for the recording of the results this season, the same way it has been used for the last two seasons.  In addition to reporting the results of the systems, I’ll also be doing the usual monthly reviews and ad-hoc pieces of analysis and so on. I can’t guarantee that the blog will be as interesting as previously as I won’t be pasting up the bets before the games take place but hopefully some of you will continue to find the blog a decent read.  

So, onto the first two sets of games then and the results are shown below:

Established Systems – A great start last Tuesday with a 100% record. 19.35pts profit from 9 games.  Saturday wasn’t quite as good with only 1 winner in 11 games and a loss of 6.46pts.  Overall, 12.89pts profit from 20 games this season.

New Systems – A decent start last Tuesday with 11 winners from 21 bets. A profit of 11.76pts.  Saturday was also a struggle with only 2 winners in 10 games but they were decent odds and therefore, only a loss of 1.61pts was created. Overall, 10.15pts profit from 31 games this season.

Misc Systems – 3 from 3 last Tuesday with a profit of 5.64pts. 0 from 2 on Saturday for -2pts though. Overall, 3.64pts profit from 5 games this season.

Under/Over System – Just the one bet so far this season and it was a winner for the Over system at odds of 2.06.  A profit of 1.06pts from 1 game.

Euro Systems – No bets this season yet.

Overall, a tale of two different days so far this season. A good night on Tuesday was followed up by a disappointing day on Saturday. 56 bets this season so far and nice to be in profit but when you consider there are another 11,944 bets (or thereabouts) to come this season, I’m not sure the P&L above means too much. When all the leagues get in full swing, we’ll be looking at bets in the 100s each week, so it will soon swamp these returns stated above!

Next bets are on Saturday, so I’ll try to get back in the routine of posting regular results updates on the blog. Unlike the last two seasons, I’ll probably steer clear of posting results after every set of games and I’ll probably do it after every couple of sets of bets or when time allows. More of my time this season is going to be spent working on keeping the ratings up to date, so the results tracking isn’t as important to me this season.  There are only so many hours in the day!