Saturday, 2 May 2015

Monthly Review for April 2015

Well, after a nightmare March, I was really hoping April would see the systems return to some sort of normality and get back on track. Unfortunately, the systems have followed up a nightmare March with an absolute shocker of a month in April. The actual losses aren’t anywhere near as bad as March at an overall level but some of the most popular systems within the service have really suffered during April, so on the back of a poor March, it’s not looking great.

Any hope of a break-even season are long gone and it’s simply about how big a loss the systems will have this season. The graph of all system returns is shown below along with the drawdown graph.

As you can see, it’s not a pretty sight and the overall drawdown is now at 800pts. To put this drawdown in some sort of context, the systems had generated a profit of 2,345pts in the first 41 months of the service. They have lost 800pts in 3 months. Around 1/3 of the overall profit for the service has been lost in 3 months. That’s a fairly substantial drawdown in a short space of time.

What has happened I can hear you all thinking. Being honest, I don’t know. All of the main ratings services have suffered substantial drawdowns over the last 2-3 months and in many cases, the drawdowns have been equivalent to the betting bank for the system or service. In my case, many of my systems have lost a betting bank from the peak of the P&L and therefore, it is very worrying.

Personally, since the middle of January, I have lost the equivalent of my betting bank which has been very painful to say the least. The problem with doing this as a hobby is that I got used to winning and you sort of mentally bank the profit you’ll make every year. This game isn’t easy at times, it can be very time consuming but knowing that you’ll make a little income each year makes it worthwhile. At the moment, my head is in a spin as I’ve lost all of the profits I had generated this season so far and another 50% of my betting bank. In terms of income made from betting, I’m back at a level I was at mid April 2014. Hence, I have basically broke even over the last 12 months.

Looking further back, I first hit the profit level I’m at now in April 2013. Therefore, I have made no profit betting for the last 24 months in total!

Break-even may not sound too bad over 24 months but when I think about how much time and effort has gone into this, it’s a really poor return. A conservative estimate is maybe 1,00 hours. Not sure anyone would like to work for free for 1,000 hours. I’ve joked about this on Twitter but my daily spend the last few months is in 3 figures. People with bad drug habits spend less than I’m spending at the moment which is crazy!

Of course, it’s always easy to get caught up in the short-term and I know I should assess things at season end and look at the season as a whole but even if I do this, I’m looking at losing 50% of my betting bank this season and no profit for the last 2 years.

I have said this a few times in emails and on Twitter but I really need to consider whether or not I continue past this season. Of course, the service is separate to my own betting activities and just because I’ve made no profit in 2 years doesn’t mean everyone else is in the same boat. However, I have always ran the service on the side of my betting and being honest, the returns from the betting is what makes this worthwhile for me. With no returns from betting, it’s hard to justify even having the service and I have a bit of thinking to do over the early summer about the future.

Anyway, here’s the results for the month of April.

Est Systems

Here’s the results for the first two rating algorithms, split by Home & Away bets:

A lot to take in here but whatever way you look at these tables, it’s rubbish.

The first thing that jumps out to me is that both Homes and Aways are loss making on each algorithm. This doesn’t happen too often in a month and we usually see a little pocket of bets do OK in one of the categories. The other thing that jumps out to me is the performance of the low value bets. These have really been a head scratcher this season and after over-performing for most of the season, they have really gone down the tubes in April.

System 21 had 70 bets with less than 5% value and only found 14 winners. A loss of 37.2pts. This is greater than the loss the algorithm had this month, so the bets >5% value were profitable.

The draw was a pest for the Away bets on both algorithms and you can see the AH returns increasing as you take more draw cover on Aways this month. The draw has been fairly quiet so far this season but it definitely hit back a little in April.

Overall, both algorithms had a nightmare and therefore, the combined systems will have a nightmare too.

Here’s the results from all 11 systems:

A loss of 114.2pts from 506 bets. Hard to be positive about anything in this picture. The filtering didn’t work on algorithm 1, systems 7 & 8 were worse than system 6. The filtering worked much better on system 22 (as it has traditionally to be fair) and system only lost 3.5pts. Basically, the less bets that appeared on system 22 the better.

The combined systems didn’t ease the pain either and unless you were doing something with the value ratings this month on these algorithms, you had to take a bath. Although, doing the same thing with the value ratings in previous months would have had you taking a pretty big bath then, so it’s swings and roundabouts. Whatever way you look at it, it’s rubbish this season.

New Systems

Here’s the results for the next two algorithms:

A disaster of a month for both algorithms and the worst month system 31 has had by quite a long way. The previous worst month was a 26pts loss, so to hit a 45pts loss takes some going. Aways were to blame with only 12 winners from 91 bets. The draw was clearly a pest and the average odds were quite high this month (higher than the long-term average), so I guess if a few of these draws had been wins, we’d have been looking at a much different month.

System 41 had another nightmare (becoming the norm for this system) and only managed to find 10 winners from 70 away bets. The higher value home bets did well on system 41 (similar to historical results) but that’s about the only positive I can take from either of these tables. A disaster month.

When the ratings have had a month like this, the combined systems are going to feel the pain. Here’s the results of the 11 systems:

A 146.4pts loss from 641 bets after a loss of 80pts in March. Sad times for what was previously a very decent set of systems with good long-term results.

Similar to the Est Systems, it is difficult to take any positives from the results here. All 11 systems lost badly although the draw was clearly a nuisance for these systems. The loss was only 22.9pts for using AH0.5 on all bets which is about 7 times better than backing outright. Basically, you would have made a good profit this month backing all these bets to be draws rather than the selections to win. When this is the case, it’s always going to be difficult to make a profit.

Hard to know what else to say. System 31 is the most popular system by far amongst subscribers, it’s the one I have invested in the most over the last couple of seasons myself and it is currently on a drawdown of 80pts. Says it all really. I’m happy for the service to be judged on system 31 and ultimately, this makes it a nightmare losing run for the service and a nightmare season.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for the systems:

Given all these systems are subsets of previous systems already discussed to some degree, these losses aren’t too much of a surprise. A loss of 75.2pts from 386 bets.

Until this month, 21-31 was doing a great job at missing some of the carnage on the other systems but this has now gone. A 20.7pts loss from 77 bets for this system decimates the season return.

The SGM systems (TOX, STOY and STOZ) are not helping the situation at all and are just haemorrhaging points every month like the other systems and it seems no matter what method is used at the moment, the losses are accumulating.

Draw Systems

Here’s the results for the UK Draw systems:

Given my comments above regarding the impact of the draw on many systems this month, you won’t be too surprised by these returns this month. A profit of 134.3pts from 298 bets.

It has been a really, really strange season for the UK draw systems. Coming into the season, I actually had great confidence in these systems after last season. Although they only had one season behind them, they performed well in a tough season for draw betting generally and I figured these systems were ‘potentially’ my best systems. Very easy to get the quoted prices or better for nearly all the games and with good results in a tough season, surely they would perform better this season?

Well, errr….. no. They started the season terribly, clawed the losses back by the end of December and I was looking forward to 2015 for these systems. A loss in Jan, a loss in Feb and then the mother of all losses in March. Thankfully, with April’s profits, the systems are sort of back on an even keel (small loss) and with a good May, they could escape with a break-even season.

I guess my assumption that this season would be better was based on the likelihood that the draw strike rate would be higher than last season. This hasn’t happened and this season looks like being another tough season for draws.

We’ll revaluate things at season end and if the systems have did OK for two seasons in quite difficult trading conditions, it probably bodes well for the future. Could do with a good May though to help rebuild some confidence.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results for the systems:

A loss of 0.9pts from 405 bets. These systems have really been the stars of the service so far this season and in a month when UK systems are losing hundreds of points, it’s nice to see these systems pretty much break-even.

The filtering worked well, particularly on system E2 and it managed to filter out the bad bets from E1 quite well.  The combined systems benefitted from this and managed a profit of 10.1pts from 180 bets this month.

Overall, a solid enough month and hopefully these systems can end their season with a solid May and it will be the second decent season in a row for these systems.

Euro Draw Systems

Here’s the results for the systems:

Considering the other months this season for these systems, this has to go down as a great month. They only lost 11pts from 461 bets.

No idea what I do with these systems at season end. I could use them as lay systems possibly, I could use them to generate more Euro bets (backing Homes/Aways rather than the Draw) or I can have a go at creating another set of Euro draw systems or I could even keep these going (unlikely!).

Anyway, in a month when the UK systems fell off a cliff, I can’t moan about an 11pts loss.

Overall, a loss this month of 213.4pts from 2,697 bets.

Well, another month, another loss and given the downward trajectory on most of my system’s P&L graphs at the moment, I’m not really looking forward to May I think! Let’s see what happens.