Sunday, 31 March 2013

Results Update

This is the results update from 23rd March to 31st March. Basically, last weekend and this weekend. I obviously have a lot of bets for tomorrow (Easter Monday) but these will fall into April, so it makes sense to do the results update now. Once this update is complete, I will then look at reviewing March before we move onto April.

The last week or so has been another decent period. The consistency shown over the last 7-8 weeks has been much like what I experienced last season for the majority of the season. The first part of this season didn’t really go to plan as we know but things have settled down over the last two months thankfully.

Est Systems

No real headway with these systems since the last update. A loss of 0.7pts from 83 bets. A small profit was made if using some form of draw coverage, so the draw has played a part in the fact the systems haven’t been able to make a profit.

New Systems

A similar story to the Est Systems here with a lot of bets but no real headway being made. A profit of 1.45pts from 93 bets. Last weekend was actually a decent weekend but this weekend has given away most of the profits.

Misc Systems

A decent set of results for these systems I think. A profit of 5.62pts from 52 bets. The STO systems again were the reason for this profit and these systems have had quite a stunning month again.

Under/Over Systems

Another disappointing update for these systems. They continue to struggle along this season and at the moment, they appear to be gasping for air! A loss of 5.86pts from 10 bets which is very poor.

 Euro Systems

These systems had no bets last weekend due to Internationals but another really good weekend this weekend to finish off an unbelievable month. A profit of 37.2pts from 56 bets.

I’ve been quite hard on the Euro Systems after a slow start this season but the last month has been amazing really. Still not sure I have complete faith in my ratings for these European leagues but at least the results for this season are starting to look highly respectable which is a start.  Interestingly, the actual ratings aren’t having an amazing season but crossing the algorithms appears to be working wonders and at the end of the day, that’s probably what I need to concentrate on. My ratings are only a means to an end and so far, it looks OK. Long way to go for these systems this season though.

Overall then, a profit of 37.71pts from 294 bets to end the month. Quite looking forward to looking back on this month and it’s great to have two really good months in a row. I feel like the systems have steadied the ship a little and in the case of the Euro systems, they are really starting to show what they are made of.

Next post should be the review of March 2013.

Tuesday, 19 March 2013

Results Update

A decent enough return from last weekend and tonight’s games. Things appear amazingly steady at the moment (can’t say that has happened too often this season!) but I’m sure the next big downturn isn’t too far away. Anytime I’ve experienced this sort of steady run of results, things usually go downhill soon after but maybe I’m just being a little cautious!

I’m sure I’m not the only one counting down the weeks to the end of the season now. I still feel pretty fresh considering how long a season this can be for me but I think once I get over the Easter period, I’ll be able to relax. There are a couple of sets of fixtures in a short space of time which is hard work but once this is over, we’re nearly there.

Here’s the recent results update.

Est Systems

A steady return for these systems with a profit of 10.17pts from 86 bets. Saturday was good, Sunday was poor and tonight was disappointing in the main. Nice to keep things ticking over with a small profit though.

New Systems

A brilliant weekend again for these systems and a really good midweek too. An overall profit of 40.42pts from 170 bets.

The results continue to look unbelievable on these systems and it will be interesting looking back over the season with these systems. They started amazingly well when they first went live and apart from one blip, they have continued to produce some amazing results this season.  The ratings in particular look pretty good on system 31 and it may well be the 3rd rating algorithm I developed for the UK leagues is the best one yet but we’ll assess things at the end of the season.

Misc Systems

A solid update for these systems too. A profit of 10.64pts from 87 games. The Home bets in particular continue to do really well on these systems and STOZ in particular is in the midst of a very decent run of form.  I keep saying it but the STO systems are really repaying my faith in them this season.

Under/Over Systems

A poor weekend for these bets but they were a little unlucky tonight as a late goal in one of the games stopped it from being an Under winner.

A loss of 2.34pts from 11 bets.

Euro Systems

A really decent weekend for these again I think.  Overall, a profit of 31.7pts from 136 bets. I actually think the systems were a little unlucky to be fair and a lot of the really big priced away bets didn’t have much luck and quite a few came close to pulling off a shock but at the end of the day, they didn’t quite manage it.

This month has been a great month for these systems and after two big losing months, a winning month would be long overdue.


A profit of 90.59pts from 490 bets since the last update. Keeps the momentum going and continues to build on the profits from last month and the first part of this month. As I said in the intro to this post, the next downturn can’t be too far away I’m sure but let’s just enjoy this while it lasts!

Thursday, 14 March 2013

Email Issue resolved....

I hope.....

Update on email issue...

The server is down which hosts the mailing list and the backup has failed too, so now resorted to pulling together the email addresses of subscribers!

Sorry for this, first time in 3 seasons we've been hit by an IT issue.

Email Issues

Having email issues tonight. Will try to get the bets sent out asap.

Wednesday, 13 March 2013

Results Update

This is an update from the midweek games last week, the weekend games and then the midweek games this week. A lot of bets since the last update but things continue to run along OK I think. The Euro systems were the big winners over the weekend and that was long overdue.  I was just about losing patience with the Euro bets before the weekend and they haven’t had the best of luck this season but thankfully, I kept the faith and they repaid me a little at the weekend.

Here’s the results by system:

Established Systems

A slightly difficult period for these systems with a loss of 21.37pts from 145 bets. Interestingly, the best performing system since the last update has been system 7-22 (haven’t said that too often this season!) and after reaching a new maximum historical drawdown this season, the system is now in profit! 19 winners in the last 32 bets has clawed back a massive deficit this season and as the saying goes, you can’t keep a good system down. 

A few months back, I thought that break-even for 7-22 and break-even overall for the combined systems would be an acceptable result this season given the way things have gone and I was happy to hopefully dodge a very bad losing season. My mood hasn’t changed too much as I know how quickly a losing run can bite again but it’s really good to see all 6 combined systems crawl into some form of profit after a really tough season. A long way to go and they could theoretically still all end up losing this season but I think they have avoided the sort of massive losing season that was on the cards at one stage.

The draw has been a pain since the last update and using AH+0.5 has only seen a loss of -1.48pts, so the systems weren’t too far away from a decent return I suspect.

New Systems

 The draw played a big impact here and I saw it when I was updating the results over the period. A loss of 24.08pts from 251 bets for backing outright and yet, a profit of 25.76pts if using AH0.50. A similar pattern to the Est Systems in a way with the higher combined systems doing better than the base ratings. All season, the weaker bets have been holding up the returns on the TFA systems overall and of course, there are many more weaker bets than stronger bets, so it helped to disguise the fact the better bets weren’t winning but the last month has seen the tide turn a little.

Of course, a good few weeks for the stronger bets in general can’t hide the really poor performance for most of the season from the same bets but it helps to give me some confidence for the run-in.

Misc Systems

No damage done on these systems although again, the draw has been a pain. A loss of 1.48pts from 139 bets but a profit of 21.62pts if using AH0.5.

The STO systems continue to be the star performers and all 3 systems made a profit over a very tricky period. The title of best TFA system of the year will be hard fought at the annual TFA system tipster awards that take place in my head every year and one of the STO systems might have a shot at wrestling the title from system 7-22. 7-22 has been the winner for the first two seasons and although he’s making a late charge to retain his title, he’ll need some miracle results to get near some of the other systems!

Under/Over Systems

I can’t reall this happening before on an update for a decent number of bets but the P&L is exactly 0.00pts from 15 bets. Jog on, nothing to see here…..

Euro Systems

 A stunning weekend for these systems with a profit of 121.6pts from 165 bets. 90 winners from 165 bets says it all really and I’m not quite sure how they’ve managed it but all 6 combined systems are now in profit for the season!

I expect it’s going to take a helluva lot of time to review these systems this Summer as it has been a really confusing season but for the moment, let’s just enjoy a really good weekend before worrying about why it doesn’t happen more often or even before we worry about if we’re going to lose all of these profits!

Overall, a profit of 74.67pts from 715 bets. An ROI of 10.44%.

I can’t recall too many times this season when the Euro systems have created all of the profits generated but it’s nice to see the wealth being spread between the systems a little more!

Monday, 4 March 2013

Weekend Update

A decent start to a new month with a solid performance from the UK ratings this weekend. The Euro ratings had another tough weekend and they are in a bit of a slump at the moment. I’m sort of counting down the weeks to the season end now and with the profits achieved last month, I feel quite content after a weekend like this weekend. I’d happily take a few more weekends like this but I suspect we’ll hit a losing run soon with the UK bets. Feels like one is overdue!

The Euro bets again look disappointing but I watched a few games closely this weekend and it was very frustrating.  Some of the big priced away bets (Nice, Lazio and Genoa) all had a man sent off when still in the game or before the first goal was scored! L’orient lost a late goal to draw, Catania were the big home bet and they lost a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2, Betis lost a 2-0 lead to draw 3-3 and the teams that did manage to win didn’t appear on enough systems.

I keep looking at the Euro results and keep thinking the bets are doing slightly better than the P&L but at the end of the day, I don’t think there is any edge here. I think break-even is probably about the best they should be doing and therefore, a small loss isn’t a disaster but it wasn’t what I hoped for this season.

Definitely going to be rebuilding the Euro ratings again this Summer and I’ll have a second shot at cracking these leagues. Another trial season wasn’t exactly what I was looking for but the ratings aren’t doing what they were doing during backtesting. Nothing like it to be honest!

Anyway, here’s the weekend results in detail.

Est Systems

A profit of 17.04pts from 82 games.  The base ratings did well and system 6,21 and 6-21 created the full profit this weekend.  The filtering didn’t really help much at all.

New Systems

A really good weekend for these systems I think. Again, the base ratings did well and system 31 and 41 made a good solid profit.  34.86pts profit from 116 bets.

Misc Systems

The stars of the show this weekend. A profit of 29.55pts from 58 bets. Great performance and the P&Ls continue to rise at a rate of knots on these systems. Know it can’t go on forever like this but when it is like, they make the game look so easy!

Under-Over Systems

A solid start to these systems this month. 12 bets and a profit of 4.58pts. 8 winners from 12 bets.  Let’s see if they can somehow build on this but I doubt it!

Euro Systems

A loss of 28.9pts from 107 games. Only a loss of 6.9pts if using AH0.5 and the draw played a part but not too much.

Overall, a profit of 57.13pts from 375 games this weekend. Nice start to the month and let’s see if the UK systems can build on it in midweek……

Friday, 1 March 2013

February 2013 Monthly Review

I’ve not really enjoyed writing the last few monthly reviews as it’s hard to look back at months where the systems are losing but as I think we all know, it’s pretty unrealistic to assume you can make a profit every calendar month. It’s probably worth a quick recap on what has happened before this month before we start looking at February 2013.

The Established systems launched in Sep-10 and started off with 4 really strong months. Jan-11 was a tougher month but still profitable. Feb-11 was the first really bad month and it was a disaster of a month. All the losses were recouped in Mar-11 and then Apr-11 was like Armageddon. A nightmare month and a massive loss on the systems. May-11 recouped a little of the losses.  End of the first season, first half of the season was massively profitable, second half of the season was loss making.

Last season started with another Armageddon month in Sep-11. The loss wasn’t quite as bad as the Apr-11 loss but not far off it. A massive hole after the first month of the season. The systems then followed up with an amazing month in Oct-11 and then another tremendous month in Nov-11. Things settled down after that but we saw another 6 winnings months in a row. So,. 8 from 9 winning months last season.

This season started OK with a decent enough Sep-12 but then things got tricky after a small profit in Oct-12.  At this stage, the systems had been live for 20 months and had achieved profits in 17 of the months. An amazing achievement I think for any set of systems and to achieve this level of profitability on a monthly basis for football betting is not too common.  We then had a bad loss in Nov-12, a much bigger loss in Dec-12 and then a smaller loss in Jan-13. Therefore, after 10 monthly profits in a row, we suffered 3 straight losing months.  My confidence took a massive dent, I suspect everyone following was scratching their head and wondering what had happened and of course, the good old systems. What did the systems do?

Well…errr…nothing. They continued punting out the same type of bets they do every week and every month and the combined systems had 158 bets in February.  This was exactly the average number of bets over the previous 4 month period. The bet number by month was 157, 166, 161, 149 and then 158 in Feb-13. 

So, what happened in Feb-13 to the Established Systems and all the other systems?

Est Systems

191 winners from 385 bets which is a near 50% strike rate. Given the average odds on the systems this month was 2.93, you can see it was a stunning month!

A profit of 127.5pts from 385 bets. An ROI of 33.1%.

Algorithm one made 21.4pts from 88 bets and algorithm two made 14.8pts from 77 bets. Based on this, you would hope that the systems filter the bets well and increase the ROI and of course, you really hope the combined systems did their job and improved the returns. Well, thankfully, this happened this month!

System 7 doubled the ROI by taking 1/3 of the bets from system 6 and system 8 ended with a 64% ROI from half the bets on system 7. Very good and exactly how the systems are meant to work! Shame they’ve not worked like this all season but over the first two seasons, this was the norm.

System 22 managed to double the ROI on system 21 and achieved a 39% ROI. 

The combined systems had a storming month using these bets. The ROI’s on 6-21, 7-21 and 8-21 were 18.2%, 45.6% and 64.1%. The ROI’s on 6-22, 7-22 and 8-22 were 39.3%, 85.7% and 97.1%.

That is exactly how the systems are supposed to work and I’ve no idea why it has taken until Feb-13 for them to work this season. Last season and the first season, 4 or 5 months followed this sort of pattern and when the systems work like this, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a betting system so powerful. The highest value bets performed better than the weaker bets and everything fell into place this month.

A special mention to system 7-22 and 8-22. 7-22 hit 11 winners from 15 bets and 8-22 hit 7 winners from 8 bets.  They made 12.9pts and 7.8pts respectively. In one month, they’ve both gone from a fairly big loss to a small profit for the season.

I know a fair number of people follow these two systems in their portfolio and given the results over the first two seasons, it was hard to watch these systems this season as they started well but then hit a drawdown that wasn’t far off the worst historical drawdown. Very disappointing really and ultimately, I was facing up to the fact that both systems would have a losing season. Of course, that may still turn out to be the case but at one point, I thought they could lose 25pts or thereabouts this season, so to see them in a small profit after this month is pleasing.

In terms of my proofed results with the SBC, the 6 combined systems made a profit of 63.2pts. That turns the season right around and the season results now stand at 61.9pts profit from 895 bets. That’s a season ROI of 6.9%. 

Considering it’s been a shocking season and a number of these systems have had near historical drawdowns, it’s a great feeling to see them sitting with an ROI of 6.9%. Of course, there is a long way to go and I reckon there is about 25% of the season left in terms of bet numbers, so they could still have a losing season I guess but after this season’s troubles, a break-even season wouldn’t be a disaster in my eyes. At the start of the month, they were down for the season, had come off the back of 3 losing months in a row and I was actually thinking that if I could get away with a small loss this season, I could rebuild in the summer and hopefully turn things around next season.

Long way to go but we enter March with a lot more confidence than I entered February with!

New Systems

These systems had their first losing month last month since they went live at the start of the season.  It wasn’t a massive loss but it was enough of a loss to dent my confidence in these systems a little. Well, they responded in a way in February that I’ve only seen matched by err….oh yeah, their big brothers, the Est Systems!

A profit of 183.1pts from 530 bets. An ROI of 34.5%.

System 31 made a profit of 28.3pts from 93 bets and system 41 made a profit of 33.8pts from 120 bets. That’s a brilliant result for the base ratings and gives a great platform to work from.

The filtering wasn’t quite as impressive as the Est Systems if I’m honest but it still wasn’t bad! 

The top two combined systems achieved ROI’s in excess of 100% this month. 33-41 hit 9 winners from 12 for a profit of 15.6pts and 33-42 hit 7 from 9 for a profit of 10.1pts.

Overall, a truly stunning month and when you think they also had a great start to the season, the results for the New Systems are stacking up nicely now. We’ll know more once the season is finished but I suspect these are the ratings people will be falling over themselves to follow next season.

Misc Systems

I feel like these systems are my pet project this season. I missed the boat this season a little by standing by and watching the New Systems as they’ve accumulated a scary amount of profits but at the start of the season, I personally felt these systems had less to prove this season. They’ve not let me down this month again!

A profit of 102.7pts from 268 bets. An ROI of 38.3%.

The 3 systems TOX, STOY and STOZ were the main stars this month. All 3 systems had ROI’s in excess of 50% and although they admittedly usually all contain nearly identical bets, it’s still a really good result I think.

You could argue the other 3 systems were disappointing considering the results on the other systems that make up these combined systems but then again, in other months when the other systems were struggling, they systems did OK, so you can’t have massive profits all the time.

Overall, a very solid month for these systems again and apart from a blip in January when a loss was created, profits every month for these systems in totality.

Under/Over Systems

Another nothing month for these systems really. A loss of 1.4pts from 50 bets. Under system made a 0.5pt profit from 27 bets and the Over system made a 2pt loss from 23 bets. These systems won’t win you any money in the long-run but they won’t do much damage either. Maybe they’ll click into gear one day and make a good profit again in a month but so far, not happening this season.

Euro Systems

When the UK ratings have a month like this, I can’t help but wonder why I’m bothering with the Euro bets. I’ve cracked the UK leagues and therefore, why bother with trying to prove I can get something to work for European leagues? Well, after this month, it’s not getting easier to get the stakes on I want on the UK bets at the odds I want and yes, I can get the stakes on at lower odds but long-term, if I continue like this, I’ll no doubt reach the stage where I erode a huge chunk of my edge.  The Euros will hopefully never have this issue due to the much higher liquidity available. All I’ve got to do is get ratings to work in these leagues and as this month (and this season has shown me), I’m nowhere near yet. I cracked the UK leagues at the first attempt basically but I suspect it will be back to the drawing board with the Euro ratings during the Summer for next season.

This month, a fairly substantial loss. A loss of 45.4pts from 377 bets.

The base ratings had a nightmare and the filtering of the bets and the combined systems did a great job in minimising the damage. System E1 lost 9pts from 71 bets and E6 lost 19.1pts from 77 bets.

With these results, it is somewhat surprising I guess that the top 4 combined systems all made a small profit! I’ve seen bits and pieces of profitability within the Euro ratings this season and although I suspect we’ll end with a small loss or a small profit overall, I think there are definitely pockets of bets that are worth looking at for next season. Whether I need to rebuild the full algorithms from scratch is something I’ll decide at the end of the season but I’m hopeful we can get away with a few tweaks here and there.

Overall for Feb-13

I don’t get the opportunity to post figures like this too often (not sure any blog I’ve read does!) but this month has saw a profit of 366.5pts from 1,610 bets. An overall ROI of 22.76%.

For me personally, the first two months of 2013 has seen me have the best 8 weeks betting of my life so far. The only way is down from here for me in 2013 but hopefully I can cushion the fall a little over the rest of this season!

I think for the first time in a while, I enter a new month with some hope that this season might turn out OK for those following the system. I was more concerned with my own P&L a few months ago but I feel like that has been taken care of for the moment, so I can only hope that many others have made the last month or so pay as it won’t be like this forever!

Season Results

The season results suddenly look a helluva lot better than they did a month ago!  720.5pts profit from 8,802 bets is a decent return and you can see how important February 2013 was to this season. Half of the profits for the season were generated last month!

35 of the 41 systems this season are now in profit and again, it’s a good return. The first season saw all 11 live systems make a profit and last season saw 21 of the 22 systems make a profit and the other system made a tiny loss.

Again, I think this shows that you can’t be too quick to judge systems and over the course of a season, I think TFA has an unparalleled ability to develop winning systems.

All Live Results

It’s remarkable that I’ve now proofed over 17,000 bets. When I started out on this journey, I figured I may add the odd system to the portfolio of Est Systems but I didn’t think I’d ever have 41 live systems at once!

At the moment, a profit of 8% across these bets is decent enough. I aim for a 10% return as I’ve said many times now but I suspect I’ll struggle to drag 41 systems up to a 10% return but if I was offered 8% across the next 10,000 bets, I’d take it.

Midweek Update

A stunning performance from the ratings in midweek again and this finishes off a truly amazing month. 8 weeks ago, I was probably as low as I’d ever been at the football and after 4 months of betting this season, my P&L was not much better than break-even.  The base ratings were doing OK this season but the filtering of the systems was a disaster. Roll on two months and I can’t keep track of my winnings and things look SO, SO much better!

I was even doubting a few months ago whether my ratings had lost much of their edge and there was a massive doubt about whether I would continue with the service next season. This season has been really tough for me personally and juggling the service along with my other responsibilities is no easy task and when things are going tough, it is really draining. As I’ve said lots of times before on the blog, if it was easy to do what I’m doing and achieve these sort of returns, everyone would be doing it. In reality, it’s not easy.

So, onto the midweek results.

Est Systems

A profit of 40.29pts from only 34 bets! Not much more I can say here. An ROI of 118.5%.

New Systems

 A profit of 46.93pts from 60 bets.  I really loved the fact that system 33 narrowed down the 6 bets on system 32 (there were 2 winners) and found the two winners on system 33 from 2 bets. It’s the little things in life that amuse me!

Misc Systems

24.66pts profit from 31 bets. Again, not much to add but say it was a good night again for these systems!

Under/Over Systems

 Sums up how good a midweek the ratings had when these systems hit 2 from 2 correct! A 2.31pts profit from 2 bets.

Overall then, not the worst midweek of the season the systems have had. A profit of 114.19pts from only 127 bets. An ROI of 89.9%. I’d take that every week. Actually, I’d take 10% of this every week!

That completes February then. Next post will be the monthly review. Should be an interesting read……