Tuesday, 31 December 2013

December 2013 Monthly Review

December won’t go down as the most spectacular month the service has ever had but it was another solid month for most systems which builds on the returns achieved in November.  It’s when you see the run of results the systems have had over the past 7-8 weeks that you really do ponder what the hell went wrong at the start of the season. If the first month had been break-even instead of one of the worst months ever, I expect this season would look and feel much different to how it looks and feels now but even so, it feels good to see the systems bounce back a little again this month.

The stars of the show this month were the New Systems and as you’ll see below, a really good return was achieved on these systems. The Euro systems had a nightmare month as a result of too many selections drawing, the Draw systems had a break-even month where all the losses were made on Boxing Day and the Est and Misc Systems both had solid, if not amazing profitable months. The Under/Over systems had a losing month again.

The same issues remained this month with the filtering of the systems and it’s crazy to see such large losses on the higher combined systems when the ratings and base systems are now in profit for the season. Frustrating to say the least but maybe this sort of correction was due after the results these systems had in the first 3 seasons?

Overall, a really good solid month and I think we enter 2014 with plenty of hope for the remainder of the season. It’s highly unlikely that this season can be anywhere nearly as profitable as the last 3 seasons but as I’ve said before on the blog, a break-even season wouldn’t be a disaster. That’s the aim I think as it would at least ensure no real damage was done to betting banks although the long-term ROI would take a hit but given the ROI coming into the season on many systems was very high, I don’t mind the long-tem ROI reducing a little.

Est Systems

Rating algorithm 1 produced a profit of 5.5pts from 66 bets, an ROI of 8.4%. A solid month for the rating algorithm. Looking at the split by Homes and Aways, a 2pt loss on Aways and a 7.5pt profit on Homes.

Looking at the value bands, the highest bands did best for the Aways and the highest Home band hit another big priced winner this month. Again, sample sizes in the month are too low to draw conclusions on the value bands but I will do a post on the season to date soon.

Rating algorithm 2 produced a profit of 1.9pts from 53 bets. The Home Away split was much different here with Aways producing a 5.1pt profit and Homes producing a 3.2pts loss.

Nothing stands out too much on the value bands apart from the fact the Aways seem to throw up lots of low value bets and they don’t seem to make much of a return. Fits in with my thinking before this season although I’m not close enough to the value band results this season to know that this trend has shone through this season as much as I think.

Here’s the results for all the Est systems:

Overall, a profit of 23.5pts from 240 bets. An ROI of 9.8%. A decent return although it varies wildly by system.

The filtering didn’t work well on systems 6,7 and 8 whereas it seemed to work amazingly well on system 21 and 22. When this happens, it’s pot luck what happens to the Combined Systems I think.

6-22 had an amazing month due to system 22 having an amazing month but 7-22 and 8-22 struggled as systems 7 and 8 filtered out all the good bets that appeared on system 22!

6-21 did OK but 7-21 and 8-21 did worse again.

I think the month can be summed up by 6-22. 7 winners from 13 bets. 7-22 filtered out 6 bets and unfortunately, 5 of the 6 bets were winning bets! 8-22 filtered out another 2 bets and missed a winner too. Very frustrating but it does follow what we’ve seen all season with the filtering on these systems.

Overall, it’s another positive month and these systems have taken another small step forward but they remain well down on the season as a result of the losses in September. My hope is that they produce a profit over the next few months and we get back break-even on these systems before the season end. I guess my worry would be that we hit another bad patch and given the fact these systems aren’t near break-even yet, it compounds the earlier losses and it then turns into a nightmare season for these systems. Hopefully it doesn’t come to that!

New Systems

Rating algorithm 3 has been the star so far this season with a profit every month and it has managed it again this month. A profit of 8.9pts from 83 bets at an ROI of 10.7%.  8.5pts profit on Aways and 0.4pts profit on Homes.

Interestingly, the value bands look a little less easy to decipher here as the lowest value bands for Aways seemed to make all the profit this month but as I keep saying every month, the sample sizes are far too small to draw any conclusions.

Overall, a really decent performance again and it has been a really steady start this season for algorithm 3.

Rating algorithm 4 managed a profit of 7.5pts from 106 bets, with an ROI of 7.1%. Aways again shaded the profits this month with 5.6pts profit against 2pts from Homes.

Difficult to comment on the value bands as the results appear all over the place due to the small samples.

Here’s the results for all the systems:

It may not have been an amazing month for the ratings algorithms but it has been a truly stunning month for the systems. The filtering worked like a dream this month on both algorithms and as you can see, when the filtering works like it is meant to, it can lead to the sort of month that most systems and tipsters can only dream about!

116.1pts profit from 410 bets at an ROI of 28.3%. All of the combined systems had brilliant months and it’s nice to see the higher combined systems claw back some of the earlier season losses this month.

I’ve spoken numerous times before about how the New Systems can generate 100pts profit in a month and this is the 3rd time since the systems went live that they have managed this. That’s 3 times in 13 months which is some going!

Overall, not much more I can add and it’s been a special month for these systems. They are now in profit for the season which considering the start they had, is no mean feat. Hopefully they can build on this going forward.

Misc Systems

Overall, a profit of 28.1pts from 214 bets at an ROI of 13.1%. A good month overall although the breakdown by system is interesting.

The 3 strongest systems in this set of systems have always been the Similar Games systems (TOX, STOY and STOZ) but this month, the other 3 systems have done better.

A special mention to system 6-32 who managed to hit 9 winners from 18 for a profit of 8.9pts. This system is still in a loss making position this season, so maybe this month has seen some sort of correction after the earlier losses this season.

The disappointing system has to be TOX which created a small loss. Being honest, the 3 SG systems have been disappointing this season so far although to be fair to them, they haven’t had the rollercoaster that some other systems have had. I guess small losses and profits each month can’t be a disaster for a system but I think these 3 systems had such an amazing season last season, I automatically expect them to do it again. So far, this season appears to be following the season when the systems went live and they struggled to make any headway all season that season. Hopefully the second half of the season goes better!

These systems have now crawled into profit for the season and after losing 65pts in the first month, to see 3 winning months in a row is pleasing. Here’s hoping they can build on this again next month.

Draw Systems

At a high level and in the context of the season to date, a profit of 2.8pts from 330 bets isn’t a disaster and therefore, I don’t want to sound too harsh. However, given the profits these systems had at the midway point this month, it’s really disappointing to be posting pretty much a break-even month overall.

They hit 34 winners from 64 bets one day in the month and then followed it almost immediately with 6 winners from 63 bets.  I guess if I reversed these days, I’d probably be saying how great it was to be posting anything other than a large loss this month for these systems but that’s not the way my mind works!

On the plus side, it’s the 3rd winning month in a row, 9 of the 11 systems are now in profit for the season after a 38pt loss in the first month of the season and therefore, I can’t be too harsh about this month.

Looking at the split by system, I’m talking through my pocket when I say it was a poor month as the systems I follow made a loss to put a dent in the season’s profits on these systems but overall, I think it’s good to see both rating algorithms make a profit this month. I also know D1-D6 is a popular system from those who took the plunge with the draw systems this season as part of their portfolio and therefore, some would see this month as a much better than month than I’m seeing!

It again highlights the difficulty with filtering systems when you see the returns on the top two combined systems compared to D1-D6. Filtering the bets does lead to more variance even though long-term, the hope is that they are more profitable than following all the bets.

Overall, a decent month and a month of consolidation I guess after the last couple of months which were much better. Let’s see how these systems do in the second half of the season.

Euro Systems

Not sure where you start with a 101.9pts loss from 280 bets. I guess the easiest place to start is the fact that the AH returns were much, much better! Therefore, this leads us to the conclusion that the draw was a big issue this month.

Both algorithms made substantial losses but both were profitable for AH0.5 betting. That basically sums up the month. Last season, the Euro systems achieved better returns the more draw coverage you had (basically, AH0.5 is the same as dutching the selection to win and draw) and this season is now following the same pattern.

Interestingly, last season, if betting on the draw for all games, you achieved a small profit and this season, the same is true. I hinted at it on a recent results update post but maybe the way to go with the European leagues is to look at draw systems rather than outright systems. The draw is a pest in the Euro leagues and I’ve discussed before how strange it is that not many seem to use ratings algorithms in the Euro leagues and I think I’m starting to understand why!

I’m not going to beat these systems up too much after a month like this as I’ve said since day one these systems are on trial and so far, all we have seen is the same as last season I think. On their day, they can do OK but long-term, too many draws seem to impact the returns. These systems are not even 1/3 of the way through the season yet, so a long way to go but I wouldn’t be surprised if things don’t really improve too much from here!

Under/Over Systems

Another 3.3pts lost this month from 20 bets. Only 8 winners unfortunately.

Unless something amazing happens between now and season end, these systems will be retired at the end of the season.


65.3pts profit from 1,494 bets.  4.4% ROI. It doesn’t look like the best return but for those playing a portfolio of systems, it should have been a much better return. For those that only play a system or two, may well have been a loss making month unfortunately depending on which systems they follow. When not every system has a profitable month, I can’t guarantee everyone had a winning month but hopefully most subscribers had a decent month.

For me personally, December was a good month’s betting and it finishes off a decent 2013 for me. I started betting online in March 2008 and in a few months, it will be my 6th year anniversary. 2013 hasn’t my most impressive calendar year in terms of ROI but in terms of £ won, it has been. I consciously made the decision to move away from chasing a decent ROI to looking at ways to maximise my ROC and so far, it has worked well. It has meant more time is spent placing bets than before and I’ve put more hours into my betting in 2013 than ever before but it has been worth it when I equate it to the additional return I’ve made. I've found a strategy I enjoy playing at this game and the fact I am able to make a decent second income from applying the strategy is the icing on the cake. 

I’ll try to do a post with some figures for the year to give a little more depth to how my own betting has gone but I’m conscious I’m due a post on the ratings performance this season too, so as always, so much I want to write about but not a lot of time to do it!

Sunday, 29 December 2013

Last results update of 2013

A poor end to the month and year after today’s results. It felt like things should have been much better and if Hartlepool hadn’t scored a 94th minute winner (had more on them to draw than win!) or if Dagenham had managed to beat 10 men Chesterfield, not missed a penalty kick or scored instead of hitting the post in the 88th minute, it would be a much different update but unfortunately, the way the season has gone, these things didn’t go for the systems today.

It’s been another decent month and I’ll get on to looking at the monthly results after this update but it’s a shame a decent month has ended on a poor set of results. Anyway, we move on and 2013 as a whole has been a really decent year for the service and for my own personal betting but I’m hopeful 2014 can see an improvement again. We’ll see what happens.

Est Systems

A loss of 3.02pts from 44 bets. You can’t see it here but there was a really good profit on homes and a large loss on Aways. Sort of sums up the way this season has gone for these systems. Trying to make money betting on the Aways has been difficult to say the least!

New Systems

A loss of 14.44pts from 83 bets. Given the month these systems have had, I can’t be too harsh on them for a smallish loss. :)

Misc Systems

A really poor couple of days on these systems. A loss of 12.93pts from 44 bets. 6-32 managed a profit which finishes off a good month after a really poor run of form earlier this season. The other systems continue to frustrate.

Draw Systems

A small profit here although the selective systems really struggled but they were a bit unlucky with the late Hartlepool goal. 0.78pts profit from 75 bets.

Overall, a loss of 29.61pts from 246 bets.

This update draws this month to a close. Overall, a decent month for many systems and the recovery from the losses earlier this season continues although updates like today probably sum up the season so far. Homes did well, Aways really struggled, a late goal caused a substantial swing and a really good value bet at nice odds missed a penalty, hit the post and couldn’t beat a team with 10 men. Sums up the season to date for the systems.

Roll on 2014! 

Friday, 27 December 2013

Results update to Boxing Day

Going to keep this update fairly short as I need to continue working on the ratings for the weekend games. Got slightly fed up doing the ratings, so thought I’d spend an hour updating the results sheets and writing a quick blog post on the recent results.

This post covers the results of the last two weekend’s and the Boxing Day games. A lot of games in a short period of time and it’s not over yet with the weekend games followed by the games on New Year’s Day and then the lower leagues are in action again at the weekend after the New Year’s Day games. Once we get this weekend out of the way, this draws the month to a close, so I can get the monthly review updated early next week and we can start the New Year with everything updated to the end of December.

In terms of recent results, there has been a slight correction taking place in the sense the systems which struggled early season have been doing better and the systems which started the season well have struggled a little. The Euro systems have followed a similar pattern to last season in many ways and the draw has killed these systems over the last few weeks. This is the second season I have trialled a couple of Euro rating algorithms and the early promise this season has evaporated again and I have zero confidence in these systems having any form of edge. I’ve actually got zero confidence in me being able to find an edge using a rating algorithm across the 4 Euro leagues and quite simply, the ratings don’t seem to work when they go live. 

The draw systems were doing OK until Boxing Day and then boom, a huge chunk of the profits this month gone in one fell swoop. It’s interesting that the systems which helped my portfolio out earlier this season have hit the skids at the same time when my other systems have started picking up profits. I guess that’s the beauty of following a well-diversified portfolio of systems and at the end of the day, this is why I’m always looking for more systems or more ways to find an edge. The draw systems have really helped me this season and when I think back to why I built these systems, it was to provide more diversification to the TFA system portfolio (as well as my own portfolio). Hence, I’m always trying to keep one step ahead and when you see the results of the Est Systems this season, you can see why I wanted to build another set of systems and not just rely on these systems. :) 

I’m still keen to find an edge in the Euro leagues and maybe I can look at something totally different to what I do in the UK leagues but this brings a great deal of risk and I need to question whether or not it’s worth it. Trialling systems may not cost me too much in monetary terms but in terms of time and effort, running two Euro rating algorithms alongside all my UK ratings and systems is hard work. Anyway, now is not the time to draw too many conclusions and to be fair, the Euro systems were badly affected by draws last season too, so maybe everything points towards draw systems for these leagues? We’ll see what happens over the remainder of the season.

Here’s the update for all the systems.

Est Systems

A profit of 22.09pts from 131 bets. A decent return although the higher combined systems have again been struggling for winners. Mirrors the way the season has gone to date and trying to pinpoint the very best bets on these algorithms have been difficult if using the systems to narrow the bets down. Interestingly, the higher TFA value rated bets have been a much better indicator to the best bets on these systems, so definitely something to explore for next season I think.

New Systems

A profit of 62.72pts from 220 bets. This is much more like it from these systems and builds on the decent start to the month these systems had. Really pleasing to see the higher combined systems do well and particularly pleasing to see system 31-42 do well since I know it’s a very popular system this season amongst subscribers. These systems do seem to have the ability to string together a really good run of results and after 87pts in September, they are now on course for the 3rd winning month in a row (as long as the weekend isn’t a disaster!).

Misc Systems

A profit of 15.53pts from 124 bets. I sort of feel like these systems are waiting to burst into life and go on the sort of run we saw last season but so far, it hasn’t happened. They are managing to grind out results and I guess after the start this season, I’m not going to knock any profit but I do feel like these systems have underperformed a little over the last few weeks. When you see the returns on the New Systems, you can see what is possible but these systems just haven’t clicked so far. Long way to go this season and it’s another small step forward.

Draw Systems

A really strange update here as before Boxing Day, things were looking amazing but Boxing Day was a disaster. Overall, a profit of 24.64pts from 171 bets. Again, I’m not going to knock this profit and it’s a great return but they have had one of the best days of the season followed immediately by one of the worst days of the season and that always hurts. Interestingly, reverse these days around and I’d be saying how amazing these returns are I suspect but that’s the way our minds work I think. 

Euro Systems

Ouch! 74.2pts loss from 188 bets. Interestingly, if backing AH0.5, a profit of 6.7pts. That’s all you need to know about what has gone on here. The draw is a pest at times and for an update like this, if it wasn’t for the fact I track the returns for AH betting, I would be saying how bad these results are. Don’t get me wrong, the results are bad but when so many games are draws, I can sort of live with this. The problem is that it happens too often with these Euro systems and it erodes any edge the systems could have. It happened last season too where the Asian Handicap returns were better than the outright returns and the same is now true this season. Still early days and a long way to go but if the draw remains as much of a pest as this, these systems aren’t going to make any profit.

Under-Over Systems

The continual trickle of losses continue on these systems. A loss of 3.64pts from 12 bets. They are on course for a second losing season as I would have predicted at the outset this season and these systems really are a waste of time! I expect these will be retired at the end of the season.

Overall, 47.14pts profit from 846 bets. 5.5% ROI. I would be disappointed if people couldn’t beat this return over this period considering the large loss the Euro’s made. Take away these bets and the results were much better overall, so people should have done better I hope.

Saturday, 14 December 2013

Season Results v Live Results to end of November 2013

I promised in the November monthly review post to post the season results to date for all systems. Members of the service obviously see the monthly results every month along with updated results of all systems to date since they went live but on the blog, I do tend to concentrate on monthly results and then do a round up at the end of the season. Anyway, below is a table which shows the results this season and the live results for all systems since they went live.

I’ve joked about this a few times but when you look at the season results this season, it’s hard to imagine it’s the same systems which are showing these live results. At the end of November, 23 of the 52 systems are in profit. If you remember back, at the end of September, 3 of the systems were in profit and at the end of October, 17 of the systems were in profit. Hence, November was another step forward and we continue to claw back losses from the nightmare September month.

Looking at the latest live results for all systems, 43 of the 52 systems are in profit. Not bad considering the mess the systems have made this season so far.

Next post I’ll try to look at the TFA value ratings so far this season.

Tuesday, 10 December 2013

December Results So Far.....

A quick summary of the results so far in December.  Been a rollercoaster already this month with a good Sunday last weekend (1st), a really poor midweek and then a good weekend just past. Gets the month off to an OK start and it’s another small step forward but it’s a busy month this month with the Festive period, so long way to go.

Traditionally, December’s are a little hit and miss and whereas I was pretty confident we’d have a decent November, less confident about December but we’ll see what happens. If I knew which months were profitable in advance, I’d be retired by now I suspect!

Est Systems

A small profit to start the month of 4.42pts from 65 bets. The AH returns are all better, so the draw has been a nuisance so far this month on these systems. System 6 has started the month very well but apart from that, been a disappointing start to many systems this month which is a worry as the other ratings have started the month OK. Could be a long month for these systems!

New Systems

67.85pts profit from 107 bets. Much better start for these systems and builds on the performance last month. These systems are very good when the ratings are doing well and they’ve had some spectacular months already in the last two seasons, so this is a really sold base on which to build. Let’s hope they can continue like this for a few more weeks!

Misc Systems

25.51pts profit from 46 bets. A great start for these systems too this month and here’s hoping these systems can keep this momentum going. The last 6 weeks have been decent on these systems, so could do with a few more weeks like this to get some profit on the board for the season.

Draw Systems

A poor start for these systems this month. 22.61pts loss from 84 games. Only thing I’ve noticed this month is that the top two combined systems have had no bets yet, so pressure will be on these systems to produce the goods when these bets appear or it could be a large loss on these systems this month.

Euro Systems

A poor start for these systems with a loss of 27.7pts from 92 bets. 

Under-Over Systems

4 winners from 8 for a 0.34pts profit.

Overall, a profit of 47.81pts from 402 bets. A solid start to the month although depending on which systems people are following, a profit or loss could have been achieved. I’d take a 10%+ return for every results update. ;) 

Saturday, 7 December 2013

November 2013 Monthly Review

I talked a lot last month about the fact that historically, November has tended to be a good month for the systems and after most systems started the season with two losing months, seeing a profit in November was always going to be important. Of course, with the way variance works, we could have had another losing month and I’m sure everyone would have been doubting the edge the ratings have (as has been happening all season) but I suspect people feel a little bit more contented now.

Of course, as I continue to highlight on the blog, everyone plays these systems different ways and therefore, I can’t even be sure everyone had a winning month in November even though the systems overall had a winning month. For me personally, November was one of my best ever months (top 5) following the systems and therefore, I’m writing this from the perspective of winning back all the season losses and being back in the black but if you read Steve’s daily 25 blog, then I’m sure Steve will be writing his review of TFA for November from a slightly different perspective considering he’s still substantially down for the season.

As always , I’ll write each review looking purely at the system results for the month and try to not get too bogged down with the season results. Many of the trends and patterns we’re seeing this season were also apparent in November, so I’ll touch on these but I won’t discuss the season results. I’ll do a follow up post with the season results instead.

Similar to the last two months, I’ll touch upon the performance of the rating algorithms first before discussing the systems. These are the building blocks for the service although as we’re seeing this season, the correlation between the building blocks and the higher combined systems can actually be quite low at times!

Est Systems

Algorithm 1 achieved a profit of 7.6pts from 96 bets (7.9%). That’s a solid performance from the algorithm this month and the points return from Homes and Aways were very similar. There were exactly twice as many Away bets, so the ROI on Homes is twice as high than Aways. I guess the key to the algorithm having a winning month can be seen in the 3 bets at value of greater than 30%. 1 away bet generated 4.8pts profit and 1 winner from 2 home bets generated 4pts profit.

As always, trying to look at the P&L by value bands is difficult due to the low volumes of bets in each category but this month, the highest band hit the jackpot and the lowest band was loss making again.

Overall, a solid month for algorithm 1. Similar to what has happened all season, system 7 takes these bets on system 6 and makes a mess of things. A 7.9% return is turned into a 14.1% loss on system 7. Very disappointing and sums up the way the season has gone in terms of trying to filter the bets.

System 8 at least managed to make a very small return of 0.7pts from 10 bets but considering the return on system 7, this is actually a decent result. This season, it appears very random whether or not the systems can filter the ratings well or not and overall, it has been a massive let down this season.  The next 6 months are going to be interesting as if this continues, I expect it will signal the end of many of these systems currently within the TFA portfolio as there is no point having systems unless they add something to the ratings.

Algorithm two didn’t do quite as well with a profit of 3.6pts from 71 bets (5.1%). It’s an OK month but a little below what I would be hoping for from this algorithm.

In terms of Homes v Aways, Aways made a small 0.5pts loss but Homes made a profit of 4.1pts from 14 bets. A really good performance by the Home bets on this algorithm.  If you look at the value bands, it’s clear that the same 3 high value bets that appeared on algorithm 1 were picked up by algorithm 2 also. 8.9pts profit from these 3 high value bets were key to the profitability this month of the ratings.

In terms of the filtering then, system 22 actually did a really good job this month. 6.3pts profit from 12 bets on system 22 is a really good return and helps to undo some of the damage done earlier this season by the filtering on system 22.

If we look at the combined systems then, 6-21 had a really solid month. A profit of 8.8pts (14.1%) is an improvement on the returns on system 6 and 21. 6-22 did well too with a profit of 6.3pts (52.7%).

The issue with the combined systems was again 7-21 thru to 8-22. A small profit/loss was made on each of these and that’s the issue this season. When both algorithms make profits, when 6-21 and 6-22 do really well, this is setting up systems 7-21 to 8-22 to do really well. Unfortunately, this month, the filtering from system 6 to 7 didn’t work and therefore, this impacted 7-21 thru to 8-22.

If we look at the results overall on the 11 systems, a profit of 31.8pts from 326 bets (9.7%). The overall results are decent enough and given 9 of the 11 systems made a profit, I would hope anyone following these systems made a profit this month.

New Systems

Algorithm 3 has been the star performer for the last two months and yet again, it has produced the goods this month. A profit of 8.6pts from 105 bets (8.2%). This makes it 3 months in a row of profits in a season when many other algorithms have struggled with the underlying market conditions being so difficult at times, so it shows how well this algorithm has done.

The Aways struggled a little this month with a loss of 0.5pts from 75 bets. The Homes were much better though with a profit of 9.1pts from 30 bets.

The value ratings on this algorithm are a bit all over the place this month with all the profits coming in the lowest band and highest band. I guess the interesting thing is that looking at the highest band, a profit of 13.5pts was made from only 5 bets. That’s the idea when it comes to following high value bets I guess but I think the issue with the ratings is the lack of high value bets!  Then again, I wouldn’t expect the bookies to make pricing errors of 30%+ too often, so maybe I shouldn’t expect a lot of bets.

Algorithm 4 did even better this month with a profit of 12pts from 122 bets (9.9%). Homes were again the key to making a profit on this algorithm with the Aways creating a small loss.

Overall, both algorithms had profitable months and it was nice to see algorithm 4 bounce back after the last two months and it was pleasing to see algorithm 3 build on the performance in the last two months.

In terms of the systems and the filtering then, same issues as the last two months and the same issues as have haunted the systems this season. System 32 made the returns worse and then system 33 basically broke even. Same story with 42 which took a 9.9% profit and turned it into a 3.8% profit.

This made its way onto the combined systems too and when the base ratings are making 8.2% and 9.9%, you are looking for 15%+ from systems. Unfortunately, only two of the systems managed this (32-42 and 33-42) and it would have go down as slightly disappointing they couldn’t do better. 31-42 managed to make a loss which is really poor but 10 of the 11 systems generated some form of profit.

Overall, a profit of 39pts from 545 bets this month across all systems. I think if it wasn’t for the poor start to the season, this would be an OK month but when the ratings make up more than halve of this profit, you have to wonder what the other 9 systems are contributing at the moment. Same goes for this season if I’m honest. System 31 is wiping the floor with the other systems (31-41 is also doing well due to 31 admittedly) but apart from this one system, the rest are struggling.

Compared to last season, these systems don’t seem to have the same sparkle but it’s still early days.  I think the 3rd algorithm is performing in line with expectations and 31-41 is doing well but the other 9 systems are really struggling. Hopefully they can pick up from here and get somewhere near the returns from last season.

Misc Systems

This is much more like it on these systems. :) 

A profit overall of 56.5pts from 275 bets at an ROI of 20.5%. All 6 systems made a nice profit and it was particularly pleasing to see TOX, STOY and STOZ bounce back after the last two months.

It’s difficult to write too much when the systems perform like this as we’ve seen this sort of performance before and this month is only the 5th best month these systems have had in total since they went live but after the start this season, it’s easy to forget. These systems made over 100pts in a month last season with a 38% ROI, so I guess we shouldn’t be too surprised to see this sort of return here.

I think the Home/Away split is interesting and as you can see, a return of 22.2pts from 49 bets on Homes with a 45.4% ROI. Very good and as I’ve touched on many times before, the Homes on these systems tend to be very good. The Aways still weren’t bad with a profit of 15.1% from 226 bets.

Overall, a really good month and hopefully they can build on this now. It’s unlikely they’ll get anywhere near the returns from last season but that season was very special for these systems. Any sort of profit on these systems after the start this season would be great news I think.

Draw Systems

One common theme coming through on the blog this season has been how the filtering of the ratings hasn’t worked well at all and ultimately, it is what has led to some people suffering large losses this season as it has worked for the first 3 seasons. These draw systems are obviously in their first season live but it’s interesting to note the filtering on these systems has worked amazingly well! 

When you look at the results this month on these draw systems, you can see how powerful the filtering can be and how good the combined systems can work.  I just wish we were seeing it on some of the other systems this season!

Here’s the results:

As you can see, a stunning return with a profit of 63.4pts from 283 bets. An ROI of 22.4%.

However, when you look at the ratings, you will see the first algorithm made a profit of 9.1% from 60 bets but system D2 made a 72% ROI and system D3 made 70.7% ROI. It gets even more impressive on the 2nd draw algorithm with the ratings creating a loss of 15.8% but system D7 turning that into 33.3% ROI.

The 6 combined systems follow a similar pattern with system D2-D7 hitting 5 winners from 9 and a profit of 8.1pts at an ROI of 89.6%. Overall, the 6 combined systems hit a profit of 37.2pts from 110 bets.

It’s still early days for these systems but they had a losing first month and then have followed it up with two very decent months. I suspect given the average odds on the draw systems, they are likely to be a bit hit and miss on a month by month basis but so far, I can see lots of potential with these systems.

Euro Systems

Only the second month of the season for these systems but a really good month it was. A profit of 51.8pts from 271 bets (19.1%). 9 of the 11 systems made a profit although it was really pleasing for me that the higher systems E3 and E7 did well as last season, even though these systems failed, the filtering of the bets worked OK.

Early days this season but it again looks as if my Euro ratings probably won’t be as good as the UK ratings but the systems are able to pick out some really nice bets which is part of the trial this season. If I find out after two seasons that I can’t get ratings to make a profit but I can find maybe 100-200 bets a season to make a profit in these leagues, that would do me I think.

Long way to go this season for these systems but it’s a solid start and I have more confidence in these Euro systems this season than I ever had last season!

Under-Over Systems

Another poor month for these systems and they do look like a waste of my time now. The first season was promising, second season was very disappointing and this season is proving very disappointing again. A loss this month of 3.5pts from 35 bets.

The Under 2.5 system actually made a 1.8pt profit but the Over system lost 5.4pts. Both systems are now loss making for the season and the long-term ROI on the systems is down at less than 3% now and the profits were all achieved in the first season which was only a trial season.

I’ll run them to the end of the season but every chance these systems will then be retired to the shelve.

Overall, a very good month with a profit of 238.88pts across all systems from 1,735 bets. An overall ROI of 13.7%.

Next post will give a quick summary of the season to date.

Tuesday, 3 December 2013

Results to finish off November

A very quick update of the results for the end of November. Wasn’t the best end to a month but given the first half of the month was OK, I’ll take it. At the very least, many systems had a winning month which means the monthly review will be slightly better reading! I’ll get on with the monthly review next but it will take a few days. Hopefully have it completed by the weekend.

Est Systems

A loss of 30.18pts from 92 bets. A really poor midweek last week followed by a disappointing weekend.

New Systems

A profit of 21.53pts from 185 bets. A poor midweek, poor Friday (Notts Forest) and then a really good Saturday.

Misc Systems

A 9.48pts loss from 71 bets. Poor midweek, better weekend.

Draw Systems

A profit of 10.24pts from 57 bets. Steady returns again.

Euro Systems

A loss of 10.8pts from 56 bets. No harm done but not the best weekend.

Under-Over Systems

A loss of 1.69pts from 8 bets. Just the usual really!

Overall, a loss of -20.38pts from 469 bets.  That completes the month of October. Next post will be the review of the month. 

Tuesday, 26 November 2013

Weekend Results

Before I get on with the results update from the weekend, a quick shout out for a fellow blogger and now also my favourite SBC columnist, Rowan Day. I’ve not figured out how to put a direct link to Rowan’s blog over at Gallops Live but I have it bookmarked on my iPhone and Rowan tends to update on Twitter when he’s updated a new post, so he’s worth following on Twitter. (@rowanday)  

Rowan has recently started a ‘practical punter’ column which he is writing for the SBC and it’s definitely worth a read. Rowan has been one of TFA’s biggest supporters since the beginning and a lot of my own betting philosophies follow the same idea as Rowan’s, so I always enjoy reading his musings.  He’s had a really tough season following TFA and so much so, he decided to take the plunge and ditch his portfolio of TFA systems to follow a single TFA system again and so far, it’s been the right decision. Long way to go before he recoups earlier losses this season but hopefully he can get paid for his patience this season and start afresh with some new ideas next season for following TFA.

Right, onto the weekend results. Another tough weekend and a lack of winners on most systems. I managed to make a small profit as the home bets did OK and I expect a weekend like that brought together the variance of returns from each subscriber so far this season.  What I mean by that is that anyone doing well before this weekend maybe struggled a little and those that were struggling so far this season probably had an OK weekend. The systems that have been performing well so far this season struggled and the systems that have underperforming did a little better. Still a massive variance between the returns of some systems though.

Overall, only a little better than a break-even weekend for all systems but the Draws were the standout systems again with a nice profit. Looking forward to looking back at the month the draw systems have had as it has been a steady accumulation of profits so far but still got the midweek fixtures tonight and the Saturday fixtures to come, so a lot can happen in a couple of sets of games with these systems!

Est Systems

31 winners from 86 bets and a profit of 3.49pts. System 21 was the issue here with a loss of 4.73pts from 22 bets. 6-22 was fortunate enough to hit the Stevenage winner at nice odds along with another winner.

New Systems

Only 34 winners from 135 bets and a sizable loss of 25.11pts. A real disappointing weekend for these systems and a step in the wrong direction after an OK start to the month. Both rating algorithms were loss making and that led to a fairly large loss on the systems overall.

Misc Systems

 22 winners from 80 bets and a loss of 4.41pts. The 3 STO systems made 0.5pts each but the other 3 systems lost a couple of points each.

Draw Systems

23 winners from 53 bets and a profit of 25.3pts. The bet that appeared on 11 systems won which gave the returns a boost again.  Been a decent month so far but as I said in the intro, a lot can still happen between now and the end of the month!

Euro Systems

A small profit of 4.4pts from 83 bets. I think with the vast majority of these bets now being home bets, the returns have been much more steady this season but it’s very early days. At various times last season, the Euro systems looked like they may had an edge but the returns weren’t great come season end.

Under-Over Systems

3 correct from 6 for a profit of 0.33pts.  Long way to go for these systems to recover losses this month!

Overall, a lot of bets for not a lot of profit. 4pts profit from 443 bets. A profit is a profit though!

There is a midweek card tonight and then we have Saturday’s games before we end the month. It’s always a pain when we have a month that ends on a Saturday as I like to track things by calendar month, so I’ll update all results to Saturday and then start work on the month end results. The Sunday/Monday results will fall into next month’s first update on performance.