Saturday, 29 March 2014

Nope.....this is the worst results update ever!

I’m going to keep this update very short. I’ll be writing the monthly review early next week after the weekend results and therefore, I’m not going to post too many thoughts here. Let’s just say that if the last results update was my worst ever results update, things have got much worse. Since my own portfolio P&L peaked on 1st of March, I’ve lost a helluva lot since then. My worst ever drawdown and the fact it has happened in the space of 4 weeks is quite incredible but as I’ve said lots of times on the blog, your worst drawdown is always in front of you. Didn’t expect it to happen so quickly though. My previous largest drawdown was spread over months rather than days!

Anyway, here’s the system results update. It’s not pretty. :(

Est Systems

Only 29 winners from 123 bets. A loss of 26.30pts.

New Systems

Another 100pt loss for the second half of the month on these systems. Unbelievable really. Only 43 winners from 231 bets and a loss of 104.28pts.  Ouch!

Misc Systems

Only 21 winners from 116 bets. A loss of 46.90pts. STOZ is on a new historic drawdown which is a little crazy considering all of the picks on STOZ appear on system 31 too! Hence, it sort of sums up  how unbelievable this season has been.

Draw Systems

Only 24 draws from 164 bets. Sums this month up that even the best performing systems this season can’t find many winners! A loss of 84.91pts from 164 bets. Ouch!

Euro Systems

56 winners from 143 bets. A profit of 56.8pts.

Under/Over Systems

A loss of 0.61pts from 7 bets.

Overall, a loss of 206.2pts from 784 bets. An ROI of -26.3%!

Well, as I said above, the last update wasn’t the worst ever, this is.

There are 290 system bets this weekend. Given the systems are nearly 400pts down this month, this month is likely to smash every record I have for any monthly results for my systems going back to 2006! The fact this month has happened during a season that was already very tricky just makes the season a disaster. After 3 amazingly good seasons, it’s a shame we’re suffering an amazingly bad season but as I keep trying to tell myself, think long-term. Much easier said than done……..

Monday, 17 March 2014

Worst Results Update Ever?

In the 4 years I’ve had the blog, there have been various results updates whereby the systems have suffered large losses but I honestly can’t remember too many updates as bad as this one. When you put this comment together with the context that this season has been the toughest season to date for the systems and you can understand how shi* I’m feeling at the moment.

It’s hard to put into words how frustrating and annoying the last week has been. The systems started the month OK and managed to make some early gains off the back of a good end to last month but the last week and a bit has been torture. Two weekends ago was painful, the midweek was painful and then the weekend just past was something like Armageddon.  Put all this together and what you have is a results update that isn’t going to make pretty reading.

The scary thing about March is that we’re only halfway through the month! This month has the potential to be the biggest losing month any set of systems has ever experienced I suspect. I’m not looking forward to this if it happens! On the other hand, the systems could dig themselves out the shi* and clawback some losses but given the way this season has going and the number of disappointments I’ve had, I wouldn’t be surprised if the systems set some unwanted records this month.

Anyway, here’s goes.

Est Systems

A loss of 38.03pts from 142 bets. Only 37 winners from 142 bets.  The draw had a massive impact on these systems with a profit of 25.4pts from AH0.5 betting.

The month started OK but the weekend past saw 6 winners from 63 bets. Hopeless!

New Systems

Wow! A loss of 97.73pts from 267 bets. Only 64 winners from 267 bets. Amazingly, AH0.5 had a profit of 32.71pts. A swing of 130pts if dutching the draw and the selection rather than backing the selection! Shows where the issue has been.

Misc Systems

A loss of 61.71pts from 115 bets.  Only 20 winners from 115 bets. Same story as the other systems really. AH0.5 made a profit of 17.81pts. Don’t you just love draws! :(

Draw Systems

Well, I said it above. Don’t you just love Draws! A profit of 101pts from 257 bets. I’ve very rarely had a set of systems win 100pts in an update but given what has happened to the other systems above, you can maybe see why the Draw systems have had such a good time! It was difficult to lose.

106 winners from 257 bets is unreal for a set of Draw systems and these systems have far exceeded any expectations I had for them this season. Unfortunately, most of my other systems haven’t come anywhere near expectations I had for them this season!

Euro Systems

These systems have dropped off a cliff for the second season running! It is like Déjà vu when you look at the P&L for last season and this season.

A loss of 92.4pts from 312 bets. The systems are slightly worse than break-even for the season now which is probably a fair reflection of their performance this season.

Even after a poor performance so far this month, backing the selections to Draw this season has created more profit than backing the selections to win!  Two seasons running this has been the case. I’ll draw any conclusions at the season end as usual but at the moment, it’s clear my ratings methodology can’t find an edge in these 4 Euro leagues if backing outright.

Under-Over Systems

A profit of 1.53pts from 5 games.

Overall, a loss of 187.34pts from 1,098 bets. A -17% ROI.

As I said in the intro, I can’t recall too many updates as bad as this but given the way this season has gone, maybe I shouldn’t be too surprised.

The rollercoaster this season is hard to take tbh. I reached a new peak for my own portfolio P&L on 1st March and my previous peak was 4th of January. Since the 1st of March, I have had one winning day and I’m in the midst of another substantial drawdown. This will be my 4th large drawdown this season! Every drawdown (apart from the first one where I had no profit!) has started as soon as a new peak in my P&L has been reached after the previous drawdown. I guess the question is….Do I have enough time left this season to reach a new peak? Not sure. Given how quickly the drawdowns seem to start after reaching a new peak, not sure I’m looking forward to the next peak anyway! 

Saturday, 1 March 2014

February 2014 Monthly Review

Going to try to keep this review a little shorter than last month which shouldn’t be too difficult. ;)

It felt like it has been a very long month even though it’s the shortest month of the season. I think the feeling comes from the fact the last 3 weeks of January were torture and the first few weeks this month felt just as bad and therefore, it has been a really tough time mentally again. However, things turned in the last week of the month and now I’ve reached the end of the month, it feels like a bit of a relief to have had a decent month.

Looking at the results over the last few months together now, apart from the first two months this season, the last 4 months have been very solid and therefore, the systems have steadied the ship after the nightmare start this season. I expect we’ll all view the first few weeks of bets for the season differently after what happened this season but we can deal with this in the Summer.

Here’s the monthly review.

Est Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm one:

A return of 6.5pts from 66 bets. An ROI of 9.9%. A really solid month for this algorithm. Aways made 6.9pts whereas Homes made a small loss.

The results by value bands are interesting. For the Aways, the higher bands did well as usual and there was another fairly large loss in the lowest band. The Homes showed the complete opposite with all the profits in the low value bands with losses in the larger bands.

The results for algorithm two:

A return of 4.5pts from 41 bets. An ROI of 11%. Similar comments to the first algorithm and a solid profit this month. Aways did really well and made 7.2pts whereas Homes lost 2.7pts.

The low value Away bets again lost month although the 5%-10% band seemed to do really well. As always, hard to draw conclusions from very small samples and I did a detailed post on the value bands recently. I’ll update the value bands performance at the end of the season.

Here’s the results of the Est Systems for this month:

A solid month this month for these systems and a large chunk of the losses recouped. Not enough profit to wipe out the season losses but another month like this and these systems could be in profit this season. That would be some achievement considering the first 2 months of losses!

A profit of 44.6pts from 225 bets. An ROI of 19.8%.

10 of the 11 systems made a profit. Not surprised to see that system 8-22 was the system that made a loss. The system has struggled all season and therefore, this trend continues even in a month when all other systems made a profit.

The filtering worked fairly well this month which is a change compared to most of the season. 8-22 is the only system whereby the filtering didn’t work.

The combined systems also had a decent month and that makes a change too.

Overall, a good month and a month that has been long overdue. How I’d like to see another good month next season and for these systems to get back to break-even but I’m just glad they have taken a step forward after the season they have had so far!

New Systems

Here’s the results from algorithm 3:

A stunning month for algorithm three after a disappointing losing month last month. A profit of 24.3pts from 82 bets. Homes made 13.4pts with Aways making 11pts. The best month for this algorithm since Mar-13.

The low value away bets had a very bad month but the other away bets did well. The Homes did well in the highest band with 1 winner from 3 but as always, difficult to draw conclusions from the sample sizes.

Algorithm 4 results:           

A great month for this algorithm too with a profit of 11.9pts from 100 bets. Homes made 6.1pts from only 34 bets and Aways made 5.8pts from 66 bets.

We can see the issue this algorithm had with the low value away bets and a loss of 12.6pts from 33 bets. Again, everything continues to point to these low value bets (<5%) pulling down the returns of the algorithms and the systems and it has been this way for most of the season. Opposite picture on the Homes though where the low value bets did well.

Here’s the results for the New Systems this month:

I’ll start with the positives!

A profit of 80.7pts from 415 bets with an ROI of 19.4%. A really good month and not far off the 100pt profit month that these systems seem to regularly manage to achieve.

The filtering worked well on algorithm 4 whereby system 42 improved on system 41 but it has gone really badly wrong on algorithm 3.

System 31 did amazingly well but system 32 didn’t do quite as well. However, the real issue lies with system 33 and it has taken the bets on system 32 and filtered out the winners mainly. 8 bets on system 33 and a loss of 3.1pts.

This impacted the combined systems with 33-41 and 33-42 having a losing month which is very disappointing. Again, I’m not totally surprised as these systems have struggled all season and when a month like this occurs and these 2 systems lose money, you know they are not going to have a good season!

The positive has to be the returns on system 31-42 as I know it’s a very popular system and it has struggled most of the season but it has finally taken a step forward this month.

Overall, a really good month for these systems although if system 33-41 and system 33-42 had done better, the systems would have easily smashed the 100pts+ profit mark this month.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for this month:

At an overall level, a profit of 20.7pts from 188 bets would have to go down as a decent month. 5 of the 6 systems in profit and therefore, it’s hard to be too critical.

However, going into this season, system STOZ was probably the system I was most confident about after the last two seasons but for whatever reason, this system is really, really struggling! No surprise to see it make a loss this month when the other 5 systems had much better months, it’s been this way all season.

I think the other disappointing thing with these systems in total this month is that the Home bets made a loss again. Again, going into this season, the Home bets on TOX, STOY and STOZ were without a doubt my strongest home bets but this season, they just haven’t clicked on these systems at all.

I keep saying it every month but this season looks nothing like previous seasons and many of the trends coming into this season haven’t been mirrored this season.

Overall, a good month but not a spectacular month but it helps to build on the profits over the last few months.

Draw Systems

I’m starting to love these systems!  Here’s the results for this month:

Only thing I can say I think is WOW! 86.8pts profit from 307 bets. An ROI of 28.3%.

The power of the combined systems can be seen this month. System D6 was basically break-even but the combined systems benefited from being cross referred with system D1. If I was being critical, it’s slightly annoying that the highest two combined systems filtered out all the profits but as always, with these very small sample sizes for the higher combined systems, anything can happen I suspect.

Apart from the blip in the first month of the season (and to be fair, they were unlucky with late goals), these systems have made good profits consistently and a few of these combined systems must be in the running for TFA system of the season. Long way to go and we’ll see what the next few months bring but my confidence in these systems have grown almost every week since the end of the first month and it’s not unrealistic to think that going into next season, I may have more confidence in the draw systems than any other systems! Didn’t think I’d be saying that 12 months ago.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results this month:

Another solid month for these systems with a profit of 22.2pts from 249 bets. An ROI of 8.9%.

Interestingly, E3 seemed to be very selective this month and this had a knock-on effect on E3-E6 and E3-E7. However, E3 did hit 2 winners from 3 and therefore, I can’t really complain.

I keep the saying the same every month but it’s difficult to draw conclusions with these Euro bets as there is so much of the season to go for these bets compared to the UK bets and therefore, I don’t want to jump to the conclusion that I have developed some ratings that work in the Euro leagues until we see many more bets. In addition, I was burnt last season from thinking I may have got something to work in these leagues, so things can turn quickly.

So far, 5 months of results, 4 months of profits and my confidence builds very slowly in these systems but happy to get to the end of the season and try to see what the results look like.

Under-Over Systems

Here’s the results:

An absolute nothing month really. Break-even from 26 bets. Based on this season so far, that’s a good result for these systems!


A profit of 255pts from 1,410 bets. An ROI of 18.1%.

A badly needed month if I’m honest and this month helps to bring an air of respectability to the results of the service this season.  I’ll need a few more months like this for this season to be anything other than disappointing for me personally but seeing so many systems in profit now and seeing the overall system results gives me a little bit of satisfaction. Of course, I would have wished for the profits to be spread more evenly across systems and seeing the draw systems do quite as well as this in their debut season is slightly frustrating but thinking longer-term, these systems are going to be a useful addition to my portfolio of systems which is what I hoped when I set out developing the draw systems.

We’re now 2/3 of the way through the season now. The first third was very disappointing and largely unprofitable; the second third has been much better and has been very profitable. The last third will determine how this season is remembered……