Historical Results - 06/07 - 09/10

It's hard to know where to start with the historical results from the TFA systems. There are so many systems and they are all linked in some way or another, it soon gets quite difficult and information overload will take over. In addition, many people reading this won't be as analytical as I am, so it might bore the pants off some people!

Firstly, I'll break down the historical results into all single bet systems combined and all multiple bet systems combined. This will give a very high level summary of how each system has done at an overall level.

I'll then quickly touch on each system, highlight the returns and some key things to look out for on each system. I'll also paste up a picture of the historical results in the form of some tables and a couple of graphs.

FYI - All historical odds quoted are taken from www.footballdata.co.uk and are the best odds available at kick-off from a selection of bookmakers. These bookmakers were: B365, Blue Sq, Interwetten, Ladbrokes, Stan James, VC and WH. (From my experience in 2010/2011 season, you can beat these odds at kick-off by placing the bet on the Thursday or the Friday)

One other thing you need to understand before reading the below and being able to understand it is you need to understand how value is found by the TFA ratings.

Value Definition

Simply, value is defined as the probability that each team will win compared to the odds that are available from the bookmakers for them to win. Hence, where the probability is greater than the odds in the market, value is apparent.

However, this doesn't mean that you want to back every team just because you think they represent value. When I was building these systems, I noticed three important things:

High Odds - Quite often, the ratings model will determine that teams that are very big prices are value. Looking at the historical results, this was probably true but unfortunately, the losing runs from backing such teams could be very long and the volatility that these teams bring to any system meant that I needed a larger betting bank which meant the return on capital would be too low. Therefore, the majority of these teams are not picked up by the systems as being value bets.

Low Odds - Similar to the above comment, the ratings model will determine some teams that are very low prices are value against really poor teams. This was again true historically but by including these teams in the systems, you were reducing the ROI dramatically as they weren't high ROI bets although they were profitable long-term. Therefore, the majority of these teams are not picked up by the systems as being value bets.

The greater the value, the higher the return - I think this is the biggest difference between TFA ratings and any other ratings in the market or any other ratings I've come across for football betting. The results and ROI vary depending on how much value the system deems apparent in the games where the ratings suggest value is appearing. Hence, you can narrow down the best bets down. This is the premise of the TFA systems...............

Single Bet Systems

There are 13 single bet TFA systems. They are grouped into 3 main categories. Systems 6-9, Systems 21-23 and the rest.

Systems 6-9 are correlated in the sense that system 6 has every team that the TFA ratings define as value, subject to odds restrictions and minimum value restrictions. System 7 has higher value bets than system 6. Likewise, system 8 has higher value bets than system 6 and 7 and lastly, system 9 has the highest value bets the ratings can find.

Systems 21-23 work in an identical manner where system 21 has all the bets the ratings define as value, subject to odds restrictions and minimum value restrictions. System 22 has higher value than system 21 and system 23 has the highest value bets from these 3 systems.

One obvious question then.....What is the difference between the 2 groups of systems? Simply, they have different odds restrictions and different value restrictions. Hence, teams might appear on the first set of systems as these systems deem the teams to be value bets but the second group of systems won't have this team as it might not meet the criteria on this system.

Next thing then....What if teams appear on both groups of systems?

Well, the 6 remaining TFA single bets systems are called 6-21,6-22,7-21,7-22,8-21,8-22. As you can probably guess, these systems are simply teams that appear on both systems. Hence, 6-21 has every team that appears on system 6 and system 21.

As you would expect, these systems produce better returns than any system in the first 2 groups. Due to the fact that the first two groups of systems look for different things, when a team meets both sets of criteria, it is by definition a better bet. This is shown by the returns these systems make.

Below are the historical returns for all 13 systems.















As you can see, system 9 has a higher ROI than systems 8,7,6 and system 23 beats system 22 and 21. However, all these systems are behind the 6 combined systems in terms of return.

The obvious question then.....

Which system should we invest in long-term? At the moment, I don't know and therefore, I intend on tracking the returns of all systems closely until I see enough live bets to make any sort of decision.


Multiple Bet Systems

One thing I can't stress enough regarding the results of these multiple bet systems is that they vary season by season and on a day by day, week by week or even a month by month basis, the variability in the results can be very large. Therefore, they are low stakes, high risk bets at best and we'll need to see a lot of live results before we consider placing too much emphasis on the systems.

I won't define how each system is made up as I'll cover that when I look at each system individually later on but simply, there are 5 multiple bet systems called System 16,17,18,19 and 20.

The multiple bets involve doing doubles, trebles, 4 folds or 5 folds, depending on the number of teams thrown up on the system. There is a maximum of 5 teams in any permutation bet and if there are 8 at least 8 qualifying teams on any system, this will be split into 2 bets and so on. Therefore, you can have multiple multiple bets in a weekend!

The results are shown below for each system:


As you can see, the returns look amazing and I have even got a system with a 184% historical return. However, what I've also found is that the larger the historical return, the larger the variance and the larger the betting bank you will probably need. In addition, the returns by month can look horrendous for systems that have a very high ROI like this as they rely on hitting 5 winners in a week to move forward at times, so losing runs can last a long time!


Individual Systems Detailed Analysis

System 6

This system throws up the vast majority of the bets that are deemed by the TFA ratings to be value. 60% of the bets on the system have been away bets with 40% home bets. Average odds are 2.8 since inception and has only had 6 losing months from the 37 months of results I'm tracking. Largest drawdown has been 22pts although drawdowns of 15pts+ are not uncommon. Definitely performs poorest in the Premiership and Championship overall.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 50pts

If you click on the picture below, you should be able to see all the stats you'd want to see about this system's historical results.


System 7

This system has been throwing up less bets as each season progresses. 55% of the bets are away from home on the system and overall average odds are 2.6. The Championship and SPL are the worst performing leagues and 10 of the 37 months have produced a loss. It has gone around 350 bets with no profit historically but the largest drawdown has only been 14pts so far although drawdowns of 10pts+ are not uncommon.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 40pts



System 8

Has been the most stable performing system of all the systems I have developed. ROI has barely moved on a season by season basis and there have been 6 losing months in 36 months of results. Average odds are 2.5 and 56% of the bets are away bets. The SPL and Championship have been the worst performing leagues historically. The largest drawdown has been 12pts.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 35pts

System 9

Is a very selective system and probably throws up too little bets for this system to be followed as a standalone system. It has only had 177 bets over 4 seasons which means it is difficult to guage the true underlying performance until we see more bets. Interestingly, 65% of the bets are home bets which means it must considering the away bets appearing on the earlier systems as less value than home bets since more home bets make it onto system 9 than the earlier systems.

Average odds are only 2.2 which is likely to be driven by the fact there are more home bets on this system. The biggest drawdown has only been around 7pts but over so few bets, it is hard to draw any firm conclusions.


Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 30pts

System 16  - Needs a minimum of 3 teams on any bet. Covers trebles, 4 Folds and 5 Folds.

This is by far the most steady system from all the multiple systems. Returns have been fairly smooth (as multiple bets go!) and therefore, it is the system I have most confidence in for this season.

Produces on average 5 bets a month which is in line with something that could be followed I think. Historical drawdowns of 100pts aren't uncommon and the largest drawdown was 120pts.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 400pts


System 17  - Needs a minimum of 3 teams on any bet. Covers doubles, trebles, 4 Folds and 5 Folds.

The only system I have found that has a loss in one season. However, due to the fact it has made massive profits in each of the other seasons in backtesting, I thought it was worth including this system in the portfolio to follow.

Produces on average 5 bets a month but has had a 300pts historical drawdown and it has had a fair few drawdowns of 200pts during that particular bad spell. Can only be a very small stake system at best.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 750pts


System 18  - Needs a minimum of 3 teams on any bet. Covers doubles, trebles, 4 Folds and 5 Folds.

Has made massive profits in each year but drawdowns of 100pts are not uncommon. Produces on average 5 bets a month and has had the highest strike rate of all the multiple systems.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 400pts


System 19  - Needs a minimum of 3 teams on any bet. Covers doubles, trebles, 4 Folds and 5 Folds.

Has made massive profits in each year but has suffered a drawdown of 200pts and 150pts is not uncommon.
Produces on average 4 bets a month but has suffered 13 losing months in 33 months of results

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 600pts



System 20  - Needs a minimum of 3 teams on any bet. Covers doubles, trebles, 4 Folds and 5 Folds.

Results are badly skewed from the first year here as 2006/07 seemed to be a one-off year where most of the profits were made! Has had 15 losing months in the last 23 months of results and therefore, caution needs to be taken this season I think.

Has had drawdowns of 120pts a few times.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 500pts



System 21

Similar to system 6 in that it captures most of the value bets produced by the ratings. Returns have been fairly steady year on year (albeit falling) but it has encountered two very poor losing runs at different times, so if something has happened twice in the last 2 seasons, it could happen again!

The biggest drawdown was 21pts last season although it bounced back well and still made an OK profit over the season. 76% of the bets are away bets which probably explains why a losing run can occur. Average odds are also fairly high at 2.7 which explains why a losing run may happen now and again.

Has only had 3 losing runs in 37 months of bets which is a very interesting stat and one to watch carefully for I think.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 60pts


 
System 22

Takes the best bets from system 21 and does it well as the ROI improves from 23% to 31%. Amazingly, 85% of the bets are away bets but the highest ROI is on the home bets by far. Clearly, this system has the knack of picking out the best home bets available on system 21.

Largest drawdown is 14pts but it has suffered a few drawdowns of 10pts+. The SPL is again the worst performing league historically which is mirrored by a few systems.

Similar to system 21, has only had 4 losing months in 37 months.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 45pts



System 23

One of the best performing systems from the 09/10 season with an ROI of 41.9% last season. 82% of the bets are away bets and average odds are 2.5. Largest drawdown has only been 7pts but based on the average odds, you couldn't set your bank based on this as there have only been 302 bets on the system so far.

Has suffered 8 losing months in 36 months which is probably more to do with the lack of bets than anything else. After all, it is clearly picking the best bets from system 22 and that has only had 4 losing months.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 35pts


System 6-21

Fairly steady system with a consistent ROI across each of the last 3 seasons. Largest drawdown has been 17pts but has only had 5 losing months in 37 months of results.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 45pts


System 6-22

Only had 4 losing months in 37 months of results. Largest drawdown has only been 11pts though, so a smaller betting bank should be OK.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 35pts


System 7-21

Largest drawdown is 14pts but quite often has losing months. 7 of the last 24 months have been losing months.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 40pts


System 7-22

Has a very high ROI by season and very small losing runs. Largest drawdown is only 11pts but not too many bets to judge this on.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 35pts


System 8-21

Performed very well last season with an ROI of nearly 29%. Largest drawdown is only 10pts but not enough bets really to draw many conclusions.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 35pts


System 8-22

Always produced a return of more than 30% during backtesting for each season. Biggest drawdown is only 9pts but only had 363 bets.

Suggested Betting Bank for 2010/11 Season - 35pts

1 comment:

  1. Hithis pretty much overides my previous question on you daily blog as I now sort of understand the different systems nos.

    Still interested to know what happened to 1,2,3,4,5,10.11,12,13,15 &15. Also shouldn't there be systems 6-23,7-23,8,23,9-21,9-22 & 9-23

    Thanks
    Toby

    ReplyDelete