Tuesday, 23 December 2014

December Results So Far......

I’ve been working flat out to try to bring the results up to date before the Festive period kicks off. It’s a manic few weeks for the UK bets, so there are a lot of bets about to be placed over the next two weeks. It has been another very frustrating month so far and we’re now pretty much 4 months into the season and it’s been the toughest start to the season my ratings and systems have had. The weekend past is probably one of the most frustrating days the systems have had for a long time and off the back of a tough start to the season, we can just do without it I think.

The weekend past was littered with draws and late goals and the combination of both these things turned an OK weekend for my ratings into a disaster in terms of the P&L. Aways this season have never got going at all and my ratings just can’t string a decent period of results together this season. We have the odd good weekend, followed by a poor spell and then the odd good day. When you add up the P&L, it’s not pretty unfortunately and with nearly 40% of the season gone, achieving a profit across all systems combined this season is starting to look quite a challenge.

Anyway, the good news is that we have 60% of the season left and it doesn’t take too much for the season to turn around. A few good sets of results and the P&L will look a lot different but on the other hand, there isn’t a lot of room to manoeuvre if results don’t pick up. Not sure we can continue on like this indefinitely and I really need my ratings to start making some profits rather than treading water!

Here’s the results up to 22nd December:

Est Systems

A very skewed set of results and as I said in the introduction, the results are littered with draws. A loss of 21.96pts from 261 bets. However, the AH returns were scary and not what we want to see. AH0.50 made a profit of 59.71pts which is an unreal number. The average odds were 1.60 for these bets, so to make a profit of 22.8% at these average odds is a bit silly. Draws have been killing the returns and all it takes is a few of these draws to have been wins and the loss would have been a profit.

New Systems

Another skewed set of results but unfortunately, the losses are horrendous here. A loss of 85.79pts from 298 bets. AH returns were much better but even AH0.50 was only a profit of 11.31pts. Still 97pts better than backing outright though!

A real struggle for these systems and the damage was done very early on in the month.

Misc Systems

Same story again with AH returns being much better. A loss of 31.11pts from 150 bets. AH0.50 made a profit of 19.34pts.

Draw Systems

Given my comments above about the draw being a major pest so far this month, these results won’t be too surprising. A profit of 53.29pts from 181 bets. Only issue here is that I don’t have enough UK Draw systems to cover the losses on the outright betting systems!

These Draw systems started the season very slowly (as they did in their first season) but now they’ve got a decent sample of bets behind them, the results have again been decent.

I suspect if they can have another second half of the season like the first half, these systems will quickly propel themselves up the TFA pecking order in terms of results, especially since most other systems are on the slide!

Euro Systems

Annoyingly, the same trend as the UK systems with the AH returns being better. Overall though, a loss of 0.1pts from 272 bets.

Euro Draw Systems

Not going to moan too much as I covered it on a recent blog post but the results are dismal for these systems. The draw strike rate has picked up in some of the leagues but these systems are not hitting the winners and the strike rate is amazingly low.

I’ve never been a fan of laying bets but another second half of the season like this and we may have the best lay the draw systems I’ve ever seen! You couldn’t really aim to be hitting a 22% strike rate for draws if you tried in these Euro leagues and therefore, the results are abysmal.

A loss of 76.9pts from 291 bets. Rubbish.

Overall, a horrible update I’m afraid and the systems have dug themselves into yet another hole this season. I think they’ve been in 3 or 4 holes now but this is another one to clawback from.  A loss of 162.57pts from 1,453 bets.

It’s going to be a losing month (again!) unless the systems recover these losses over the rest of the month. Continues like it has been going recently and we’ll have a record losing month possibly.

Let’s see what happens…….

Tuesday, 16 December 2014

Euro Draws Update

I thought it was worth doing a quick post looking at the performance of the Euro Draws. In a way, I think one of the best things I did over the Summer wasn’t actually having a go at producing some Euro Draw systems (no, I think I can safely say that was a very bad idea!) but the fact I invested the time to look at the underlying results for the Euro leagues.

I’m not sure why but before I had looked at the Euro underlying results in depth, I had it in my head that Euro Draws was maybe an OK place to be. I’d seen a few services follow Cassini’s lead and start looking at Euro Draws and given the fact I really buy into the idea that few punters back draws and they are more interested in backing a team to win (same idea as why no one backs 0-0 when watching a game as they want to see goals!), I thought Euro Draws was going to be a profitable place to play generally.

You can re-read my post from the Summer here but I’m going to quote some comments I made as it was a little prophetic I think.

Considering I’m about to embark on new Euro Draw systems, let’s just say my confidence is a little lower having seen these underlying results!

The Draws have lost 6.4% over the last 4 seasons, last season lost 8.5% and the 2010/11 season lost 10.5%. Not exactly an easy place to make money!

12 winning months from 37 for Draw bets shows the difficulties playing in this space. Only 2 winning months in the last 12 shows how difficult it has been recently in these leagues if backing Draws.

In terms of the Euro Draw systems, I think the above has opened my eyes to how tough this place is to make money. Being honest, having seen Cassini’s results over the last two seasons, I realised it wasn’t exactly an easy place to make a profit but I’m not sure I’ve seen too many tougher groups of data to try to find a betting angle over the last few years.

Unless conditions get a bit easier for Draw backers (higher strike rate), I would struggle to believe that my ratings could make a profit next season. It’s not impossible (my UK Draw systems did it last season) but experience tells me that when the underlying results are tough, making a profit from a very high number of bets is just as tough. The odd system with lower turnover can do well but the higher turnover systems may struggle if the losses are as bad as 3 of the last 4 seasons.

I had a few emails from subscribers after I wrote this piece and the general consensus was that after reading my thoughts, they were going to give the Euro draws a miss this season. Of course, a few others decided that they would plough on anyway and given the fact they were playing lower stakes, surely these systems couldn’t do too much damage to their overall TFA P&L……

Well, I’ve had a few emails over the last few weeks saying how great a decision it was by some to miss these bets out from their portfolio after my post but I’ve also had two emails from subscribers in the past week who took the plunge with these systems at lower stakes and they are now licking their wounds a little.

I guess the first point I’d make is that although I judge TFA systems as an overall package and every bet carries 1pt in the proofed results, it’s fair to say that this isn’t really representative of the service as a whole. If anyone is placing 1pt on a TFA Euro Draw and 1pt on a UK Draw, they aren’t playing the game correctly I think. If you have zero live results and no evidence that a system or rating algorithm may be profitable, you shouldn’t really be placing too much emphasis on it. Therefore, although I feel bad for anyone following the Euro Draw systems this season at lower stakes, the reason they are following at lower stakes is due to the additional risk of these systems and therefore, even if they lose badly, the decision to follow the systems was down to them and them alone.

Anyway, caveats aside, my conscience is fairly clear given the comments I made before the season started and the fact the comments have been pretty accurate shows I did at least warn about what may happen.

So, after the weekend past (15th December), here’s the results for all 11 systems so far this season:

In total, the 11 systems have lost 180pt from 651 bets. They have only found 137 winners, so a strike rate of 21%. The overall Draw strike rate for all Euro games I’ve rated this season after the weekend stands at 24.7%.

I guess the first point to make is that with a strike rate of 24.7% for the underlying results, I would expect my systems to be loss making. At average odds of 3.40, I need to be hitting 29.4% Draws to be break-even. Hence, at this sort of strike rate for the underlying results, I would expect to have lost c. 16% so far this season. This equates to 104pts! Therefore, my systems are clearly doing much worse than average and worse than expected, even with the underlying results.

I said before the season that if the season was as tough as 3 of the last 4, the higher turnover systems may struggle. The systems with the highest turnover have all lost over 30pts each and therefore, this assumption was correct. 

I guess the question that we all want answered is what happens next? Well, looking at the betting banks I suggested for each system (bear in mind I had no live results to know what the expected edge or lack of edge may be!), there is a very good chance that the first ever TFA system to lose a betting bank will occur. System DE1-DE6 has now lost 33pts of a 45pt bank (bank looks woefully inadequate based on the turnover) and therefore, by setting an inappropriate bank at the outset, I expect this system will effectively go broke.

There are a handful of other systems that may lose their suggested betting bank too and therefore, I think it’s odds on that one of the systems will go broke.

Having never been in this situation before, I’m not sure what it means for the Euro Draws. Clearly, if the Euro Draw strike rate is running at this sort of level, my systems are going to make a loss and personally, I’m not sure there is much I can do about it. You can’t have ratings that throw up Draws in 40%+ games and expect to make a profit if the Draw strike rate runs at the level it is running at now.

With hindsight, having seen what I saw with the Underlying results, having Euro Draw systems that bet in 40% of the games, knowing that it’s a very tough place to make a profit is probably not the most sensible thing in the world. However, the Euro Draw systems were built before I had looked at the Underlying results and therefore, I wouldn’t have had such high turnover systems if I had known how difficult it could be.  Then again, if my ratings had an edge in these leagues, the more the merrier when it comes to bet number and therefore, if I had gone down a very selective approach and made a small loss, I’d have been wondering what would happened if I had more bets…the truth is, a bigger loss. :(

I think if anyone is following the Euro Draws and have based their betting banks on the banks I suggested, I would suggest they reduce stakes if they feel the losses on the Euro Draws are impacting their overall portfolio too much. I personally follow the Euro Draw systems (E2-E6 and E2-E7) and I’m down 28pts at the moment. 1pt for me on Euro Draws is worth 3pts for UK Draws but even with this sort of staking plan, the losses on Euro Draws has wiped out my profits on the UK Draws and more unfortunately. With hindsight, I was too aggressive with my staking on the Euro Draws given the turnover on these systems and although I adjusted stakes based on the fact they had no results, I probably underestimated the sizable turnover the systems have. As always, I live and learn!

There is nothing I can do about the fact the systems are running so poorly at the moment. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the bets thrown up. I’m pretty close to the Euro leagues this season due to the fact the Euro outright bets are doing great and so often, the Euro systems are on a big priced bet, the Euro Draws have the same game and then the big priced team wins! That weekend past, how PSG didn’t equalise or how Ath Madrid lost I’ve no idea but the outright ratings got the big priced winners as the Draw systems were left licking their wounds. The same could be said for the number of 1-0 games or the number of games with late goals which swing a Draw from a winner to a loser. However, this is gambling and ultimately, it happens to everyone!

If these systems do recover from these losses and reach break-even or a small loss (miles away from this at the moment!), then we could reassess the banks in the Summer and decide whether or not these systems should remain part of the service going forward. I have the option of doing what I did with the Euro systems and rebuilding them from scratch for next season or I could just take the decision that it’s too difficult a place to make money (sort of there now in my own head!) and why bother even trying to get something to work? At the moment, I’m definitely wondering why I’m even bothering continuing to back these bets given there are much easier ways to make money with other systems but I’ll continue until I feel the losses have reached a level that I feel like I’m not comfortable with and I’ll probably stop.

Interestingly, I stopped following the Euro systems myself in their first season just before an upturn after 3-4 months of poor results and it’s funny how things like this leave a psychological mark! I was playing small stakes on these systems too although the losses were nowhere near as bad as I’m suffering with these Draw systems. I’ll personally give it a few more weeks and then take stock of the losses and the impact it’s having on my P&L this season.

I expect those who took a chance on the Euro Draws this season are the same ones who took a chance on the UK Draws last season and coined it in! I bottled the UK draws last season and jumped on board very late and still managed to make a nice profit. If I had just showed the same little bit of patience and discipline again this season with the new Euro Draw systems…….

Wednesday, 10 December 2014

Season review do far

I don’t tend to write too many season review posts apart from season end as quite simply, I don’t think any time period shorter than a season is too meaningful. Yes, I do write monthly reviews and yes, I even go as far as detailing all results on this blog for every day my ratings and systems have bets but anyone with half a brain knows that what happens on a day to day basis when it comes to gambling is fairly random. If it wasn’t random and I knew when I was more likely to win or lose on any day, I’d build this into my models and my staking plan and increase my profitability. :)

I think any time I have done season review posts it’s always off the back of poor runs of results and most times, it’s to have a period of reflection for myself more than anyone else. Anyone who reads my blog posts will know this blog isn’t an advert for the service and is simply a record of all the system results over the season. I suspect some people only read the monthly reviews and if you only read these, I’m not sure you get the full flavour of what we are seeing in a season. I think this season maybe falls into this category and therefore, after 3 poor months, I think it’s better to stand back and take stock of the situation.

There’s not going to be a lot of depth in this post and it’s going to be a high level overview. I think I sometimes get too lost looking at details of how each rating algorithm and each system is doing but at an overall level, people are generally following the ratings or following a combination of systems or a mixture of the two. Therefore, I’ll try to look at the results in this way in this post.

Here’s the results so far this season for each algorithm,:

Coming into the season, algorithm 3 was the best algorithm, algorithm 4 was the worst algorithm and algorithm 2 just shaded algorithm 1. Therefore, I think these results aren’t too far out from what I would expect in terms of how the systems are doing relative to one another.

Algorithm 3 has made a 4.5% profit from 298 bets so far and although it’s not a vintage season, it’s hard to expect the algorithm to do that well when Aways have been performing so poorly. Algorithm 4 has made a loss of 7% from 252 bets and this is disappointing, even taking into account the difficulties this season. Algorithm 1 has a profit of 1.3% and algorithm 2 has a loss of 0.1%.

I think in a more normal and probably an ideal season, algorithm 3 would be sitting at c. 8%, algorithm 1 and 2 at 5% and algorithm 4 at 3%. Hence, all 4 algorithms are substantially down on where they should be I think based on historical experience.

I think this season, algorithm 3 is the most followed algorithm, followed by 2 and 1. Not too many will be following algorithm 4 but of course, quite a few are following unique bets and therefore, a unique bet on algorithm 4 may be pulling down the returns a little based on these results but I could be wrong.  I know Steve (Daily 25) is following algorithm 4 this season as I figured that it was a potential way to follow TFA bets with less odds movements but I didn’t expect the algorithm to do as badly as this! Even though it was the worst algorithm, it has been profitable up until now, so it’s disappointing to see it making a loss so far this season.

Overall, not the best results over the first 3 months for the algorithms but it’s not a disaster. All 4 algorithms favour Away bets heavily and therefore, given the carnage on Away bets, I don’t the results are too bad apart from algorithm 4.

This season, quite a number of people are using the value ratings to filter the bets to try to improve the profitability of the ratings and systems. I have always been wary of this myself but after seeing fairly conclusive results last season, I decided to base my staking plan in part of the value ratings so far this season. Unfortunately, it has been a disaster so far and the following tables will help me (and you!) understand why.

Rather than looking at the results by algorithm and value band, let’s look at the total results for all 4 algorithms together and by value band:

Straight away, we can see the issue the algorithms are having this season. Historically, the low value bets were marginally profitable and on some algorithms, the low value bets were loss making. So far this season, we are seeing the complete opposite picture. Bets with less than 5% value have created all the profits and those of you filtering these out or staking according to value are basically missing all the profits so far this season.

A profit of 34pts for all bets <5% value, a loss of 34.8pts on all bets >5%. As you would expect, the average odds increase as you go up the value bands and with the issues we are having on Aways this season, it makes sense that the highest value bets are struggling.

I think one part of the value ratings that I haven’t investigated in enough detail is the Home v Away bias when it comes to % value. Clearly, with the way value is defined within my ratings, Aways are always going to have more value on average since it is based on odds and Aways have a much higher average odds than Homes. This means that those of us filtering by value or staking by value ultimately end up with more riding on Away bets. Not really ideal and in a season like this, missing Home bets for being so called ‘low value’ is a killer for the P&L.

This is definitely something that needs more thought this Summer and rather than having a value % based on odds, I maybe need to relook at how I define value for Homes and Aways.

Here’s the same results split by algorithm:

Those following each of the algorithms and filtering by value can probably relate to the results shown here. Although algorithm 4 is the disappointing one this season, the carnage could have been avoided by applying a value filter as suggested during the Summer. Unfortunately, playing the same way on any of the other algorithms (which was also a suggestion!) has resulted in losses as the wrong bets have been winning.

What I would say though is that we are only 3 months into the seasons and there are a helluva lot more historical results that show that filtering by value isn’t the worst idea in the world. Given the results this season aren’t in line with the previous seasons, I’m not totally surprised the value ratings aren’t proving a good indicator but I’m hopeful this will change over the next few months and hopefully by season end, the season may look something like previous seasons!

As I outlined in the introduction, using the algorithms and/or value ratings are one way to play the bets I provide each week. The other way is to simply select a portfolio of systems to follow and follow these systems in a portfolio. It has been discussed to death on the blog before about the pros and cons of a portfolio approach but I feel that as long as you aren’t following correlated systems within a portfolio, the portfolio approach has its benefits. This season, I invested 75% of my betting bank in a portfolio approach and the other 25% in an approach using the algorithms and value ratings. So far, the portfolio approach has been much more successful but both approaches have been disappointing so far to varying degrees.

Going into this season, the record for profitable systems was:

2010/11 – 11 live systems, 11 profitable systems (100%)
2011/12 – 22 live systems, 21 profitable systems (95%)
2012/13 – 41 live systems, 33 profitable systems (80%)
2013/14 – 52 live systems, 35 profitable systems (67%)

I remember doing the work on this in the Summer and writing about it on the blog but if you followed a random selection of 4 systems each season in a portfolio, the chances of making a profit were over 90% in each season.

How does things look this season?

Here’s the results for all systems to the end of November:

There are 61 live systems this season. At the moment, only 22 of the systems are in profit which is only 36% of the systems. As you can see, compared to the previous seasons, this is a much lower % and shows the difficulties the systems are having this season.

Doing the same analysis I did in the Summer, what are the chances of making a profit if selecting 4 random systems in a portfolio? Here’s the same sort of table I showed in the Summer:

As you can see, if following 4 systems this season in a portfolio, the chances of being in profit at the moment are only 39%. Considering this number was 90%+ for the last 4 seasons, you can see how poor this season has been to date if using this portfolio method.

To finish this post off, I thought it was worth having a quick look at the 10 SBC portfolios I tracked last season and posted about during the Summer. Admittedly, some people may have used these portfolios and tweaked systems based on what I wrote in the review of these portfolios in the Summer but at the very least, this gives us an indication of how these systems are performing compared to last season. Here’s the results of the 10 portfolios for the season so far:

7 of the 10 portfolios are in a marginal profit situation and 3 of the 10 portfolios are in a marginal loss situation. Simply, break-even for the 10 portfolios isn’t too far away from the truth.  If anyone has added Euro Draws to their portfolio (I did!), then it may be slightly worse than break-even but not a disaster.

Again, similar to what I said above, it highlights the fact that it hasn’t been the easiest strategy this season but then again, it’s not been the worst strategy in the world.

Overall, I think this post provides a quick overview of a few strategies this season and how they are doing. I think break-even is a common theme that jumps out to me and if you are break-even this season, I think you are in line with where I expect. Anyone doing better than this is outperforming and anyone doing worse is under-performing. I’m sure there are outliers at both ends of the scale.

For results to improve, we need to see more Away winners in the UK, more Euro Draws than we are seeing and we need the higher value bets to start performing a bit better than so far this season. A combination of all 3 would turn this season around quickly but I suspect we’ll see some improvements in some cases and some deterioration in others!

Let’s see what the next 6 months bring……

Friday, 5 December 2014

November 2014 Monthly Review

Same story as last month and I’m going to try to keep this review a little shorter. I say shorter rather than short as I’ll no doubt still end up writing 5,000 words to summarise another tricky month for my ratings and systems. I will try to not write too much about the season to date as I plan on following this post with a post looking at the season to date for the systems.

We have seen by the Underlying results post that the UK underlying results were quite benign this month for the UK and therefore, I would have hoped that we would see most systems post a profit this month (they haven’t!). Underlying results at the level I’m looking at them every month only tell part of the story and as always, if I’m backing Homes when Aways have been winning, I’m never going to make a profit even though Aways may be profitable!

One thing I did notice this month from my own betting was a shocking performance from the high value bets generally. I stake according to value in one of my two portfolios of bets and it has been a disaster this month. Again, this probably indicates the wrong type of bets were winning and I’m sure we’ll see that in the results review below. Of course, it’s a short-term trend and historically, missing low value bets hasn’t been a bad idea but in a month where they have kept the results afloat, it hurts a little to see the low value bets do so well. 

3rd disappointing month of the season and it’s been a tough season so far. Next post will look at the results this season to date.

Est Systems

Here’s the results of algorithm 1:

A loss of 1.7pts from 110 bets. An ROI of -1.6%.

A disappointing month given the underlying results and I would have hoped the algorithm could make a profit this month. The other issue is the results by value band and we can see that the low value bets made a profit of 9.4pts whereas the bets with value of 5%+ made a loss of 11.1pts. Not ideal for those of us using value in our staking plans or filtering the bets by value but as always, we can’t read too much into one month’s results.

Here’s the split by Home and Away:

Similar story to the previous months with Aways making a massive loss (10.4pts from 64 bets) and Homes making a profit (8.7pts from 46 bets).  Homes low value (<5%) bets is where all the profit is this month with a profit of 13pts from 26 bets.

Overall, a disappointing month overall for this algorithm with a small loss and being honest, anyone following this algorithm would have done worse if they used the value ratings as an additional filter.

Here’s the results of algorithm 2:

0.6pts profit from 103 bets. An ROI of 0.6%.

A disappointing month again for this algorithm and interestingly, the same issue applies with the value bands. All of the profit is in the lowest value band (12.8pts from 66 bets) which hurts those using the value bands I suspect.

Here’s the split by Home and Away:

Aways only lost 1pt and Homes only made 1.6pts. However, both showed the same trend with the low value bets doing best.

Overall, a poor performance from both these algorithms and given the bets that won were the wrong bets for the value bettors, I think I would expect the Est Systems to lose money this month. If the ratings aren’t profitable overall and the value filters aren’t working as well as they should, not sure the filtering of the ratings by systems is going to improve things too much.

Here’s the results of all the systems:

A loss of 22.8pts from 476 bets. An ROI of -4.8%.

It’s safe to say that the filtering is all over the place (again!). System 22 has had a nightmare and this has had a knock-on effect onto the higher combined systems. On the other hand, system 6-21 did quite well I think to turn a profit given the results on 6 and 21 but 6-22 has had a nightmare as all the system 22 bets were picked up by system 6 which means 6-22 had them all.

7-22 has had a poor month after a good month last month and overall, the 6 combined systems lost 10.3pts from 185 bets.

Not too surprised at the results of the systems this month given the results on the algorithms. It’s a poor month again for these systems and it’s worrying I think.

The Est systems have now been live for 39 months. The first 13 months created a profit of 409pts from 4,056 bets. An ROI of 10%,

The second 13 months created a profit of 382.9pts from 4,349 bets. An ROI of 8.8%.

The last 13 months have created a loss of 13.1pts from 3,372 bets. An ROI of -0.38%.

I guess if the systems didn’t have such a good track record over the first 2 periods, I’m not sure I’d have been as disappointed with them as I have been over the last 13 months of bets. I’m sure anyone following these systems is getting frustrated at the lack of progress over the last season and a bit but then again, the systems aren’t doing too much apart from treading water. I’ve said this before but I’m not against retiring systems if I feel like the edge has gone and these systems definitely fall into this category these days. I will of course give them to season end but if we don’t see an improvement, I expect systems 7 & 8 will be retired along with the corresponding combined systems 7-21 thru to 8-22.

New Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm 3:

A profit of 12.9pts from 118 bets. An ROI of 10.9%. At an overall level, a very good month for this algorithm and it kick starts the season as it has been like ploughing through treacle so far this season on this algorithm, with one step forward, one step back. Rightly or wrongly, I place a lot of emphasis on system 31 as I know it’s the most followed algorithm and therefore, if system 31 can do well, it papers over the cracks a little on the other algorithms.

Homes made the majority of the profits which is a common theme this season but I think it’s disappointing when you look at the split by value band. Similar to the first 2 algorithms, the profits have been made in the lowest value bands. 21.6pts profit from 55 bets for bets with less than 5% value.

To be fair to this algorithm, the lowest value bets have never been loss making and therefore, those who exclude bets with less than 5% value when they appear on this algorithm are taking a chance. However, the bets are not as profitable as the higher value bets and therefore, I can see why people maybe exclude the low value bets. For months like this though, it really hurts to see so much profit in the lowest band, knowing that some would filter these bets out.

Those who follow the value ratings will know that there isn’t much between a bet in the first two value bands. A bet with 4.99% value is in the low band, a bet with 5.01% is in the next band. Looking at the results, big losses are in the 5%-10% band. 11pts loss from 37 bets. Frustrating that more of the low value bets were not in this band.

Overall, it’s hard to be critical of an algorithm which makes 10% in a month although as always, the results haven’t fallen perfectly (the never will!).

Here’s the results for algorithm 4:

The blacksheep of the TFA family and it’s a 3rd losing month in a row. A loss of 4.1pts from 94 bets. Wrote a little about this a recent blog post but this algorithm is probably on its last legs. I refreshed it in the Summer and hoped to improve it but the results just aren’t good enough. Not sure I have the appetite to start again with proofing a new 4th algorithm and I suspect I may retire the 4th algorithm at season end.

Looking at the results, the profits were in the lowest band and that means over a month, all 4 algorithms have achieved profits for bets with less than 5% value and bets over 5% value were badly loss making. Another record I think as I can’t recall this happening on every algorithm in the same month before.

With the results on the algorithms, it’s difficult to know how the systems would do. System 31 provides a great platform but system 41 will reduce the profits and then looking at the fact the profits are all on low value bets, I would expect the filtering didn’t work great this month since the teams I wanted to win didn’t win!

Here’s the results of the New Systems:

A loss of 16.9pts from 505 bets. An ROI of -3.3%. The filtering on systems 32 and 33 was rubbish and therefore, the only combined systems to make a profit was system 31-41 and 31-42. 31-42 had a nightmare season last season after a great first season and as we’ll see in the next blog post, the system has really bounced back so far this season.

Overall, a poor month but given the way the results fell this month, not too surprised.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results of the Misc Systems this month:

A loss of 12.4pts from 331 bets. An ROI of -3.7%. Nice profits on 6-21-31 and 21-31, offset by losses on the other 4 systems. It’s a weird set of results considering most of the same bets appear on 21-31 as TOX, STOY or STOZ! For example, STOZ had all of the bets that appeared on 6-21-31. Unfortunately, it also had an additional 11 bets and didn’t hit any winners! Easier said than done to achieve that particular feat.

Here’s the split by Home/Away for these systems:

Another massive loss on Aways with a loss of 28.5pts from 232 bets. Homes did better as usual with a profit of 16.1pts from 99 bets.

It will be interesting to see the results for the season split Home and Aways on the systems as Aways must be in about as big a hole as I’ve ever seen in a season! If I hadn’t refreshed the ratings in the Summer and incorporated more Home bets, I dread to think what the loss would be this season on all systems!

Anyway, another losing month for these systems although 6-21-31 and 21-31 are doing better than the base ratings this season so far. Hopefully won’t end this way!

Draw Systems

Here’s the results of the Draw Systems this month:

A profit of 25.9pts from 278 bets. Wow, a profit. Last month was a profit of 25.7pts from 263 bets. That’s about as consistent as these profits have ever been!

I had my doubts about these systems after the start to the season in September and the massive loss but they’ve bounced back well. Still a long way to go to reach the heights of the previous season but at least they have clawed back the losses now after two decent months. Hoping to see these systems push on now and hopefully start to create some sort of meaningful profit this season.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results:

A loss of 36.9pts from 321 bets. Scratching my head if I’m honest about why these systems are posting a loss when the underlying results have been so favourable this month. The ratings haven’t done too badly (still underperformed though) but the filtering has been a disaster on systems E2 and E3.

I’m finding it very hard to understand the European results this season and I’m not sure my ratings are finding it easy either. The results look fairly random and although the underlying results point to it being quite easy, I’m not sure it is. My ratings don’t seem to picking up Dortmund to lose often enough (I keep having them drawing!) and things like this are throwing up massive profits for the underlying results but it’s not as easy as it appears to be backing winners at big odds all the time!

Euro Draw Systems

Here’s the results:

A loss of 30.1pts from 309 bets. No need to scratch my head here as I understand these results and I guess my only comment is that based on the underlying results, I’m surprised the loss is not greater this month!

A flat 14% loss if backing all Euro Draws in my rated games this season and it has been impossible. Before the season started, I said it was a tough place to make money based on the work I did in the Summer looking at the Underlying results and the results so far have backed this up. I do feel like a correction is due and if some sort of correction does come, I would hope the Euro Draw systems do bounce back but it’s a long way back to break-even.

Overall, a loss of 93.2pts from 2,220 bets. An ROI of -4.2%.

A poor month again I think and similar to what I said at the end of the previous two months, it could probably have been worse. It’s been a tough 3 months and trying to not lose too badly has been the name of the game. It won’t always be like this (I have to believe this, otherwise, I’d stop betting on footie now!) and I’m hopeful we can get back to some sort of consistent profits like the previous 4 seasons sooner rather than later.

December is a key month (I said this about November!) and this is traditionally the time of the year when the ratings do well. Games come thick and fast over the next 6 weeks or so and if I’m still struggling at the end of January, I expect it’s going to be a really tough season for my systems to make any headway at all.

Next post will look at the season to date. :(

Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Updated Underlying Results

This is a very quick post on the updated Underlying results before I get on with the monthly review of November.

Here’s the updated results for the UK leagues for the games I’ve rated so far this season:

November is maybe the most perfect month I’ve ever seen for the Underlying results with a small loss in each category. Of course, results at this level can be misleading and what we actually saw in the month was a small number of big priced teams winning which to be fair to my ratings, were quite difficult to find. This happens every month though and it levels out over the season I suspect, so not using that as an excuse for why ratings didn’t do as well as I would have hoped for given the underlying results this month.

To be fair, I remove algorithm 3 from that comment. Algorithm 3 made a profit of 10.9% this month which is a stunning month, more so given the underlying results weren’t that easy.

At the other end of the scale, algorithm 4 made a 7% loss this month and off the back of losses in September and October, I think the end is near for this algorithm.

Algorithm 4 has always been the weakest algorithm since it launched and although I refreshed it in the Summer, I would be lying if I said I was confident that it had too much of an edge. The only hope I had for the system was the fact that the bets with >5% value appeared to have an edge but this season so far, even these bets have been struggling.

The other 2 algorithms are treading water this season but as I said in my last blog post, I personally think break-even after 3 months this season isn’t a bad return given the results.

So, 3 months into the season and Aways are showing a loss of 10.2%. The last 4 seasons have witnessed December being profitable for underlying Away bets, so I hope this happens again!

Here’s the updated results for the Euro Leagues for the games I’ve rated so far this season:

Well, unless you are following Euro Draws, you should be loving these results. If the day ever comes when the UK leagues start showing these underlying results, I’ll probably retire in anticipation of the profits I’ll be able to make! As it happens, my Euro ratings aren’t very good I think and therefore, making money in the Euro leagues seems to be beyond my rating capability at the moment.

The Euro ratings are doing OK this season but looking at the results, OK is actually not very good. Not sure the trading conditions can get any more favourable for Euro systems and therefore, I have my doubts about their long-term potential. Admittedly, it’s early days and it’s hard to knock ratings which are profitable (algorithm 1 is +8.9% and algorithm 2 is 25.3%) but I’m not sure how profitable these ratings really are. I have my doubts.

Not sure how I assess the Euro Draw ratings really. Algorithm 1 is -22.7% and algorithm 2 is -31.8%. I think I just have to live with the fact that it is impossible for these ratings to make a profit given the low strike rates. Before the season started, I remember first looking at the Euro Underlying results and commenting on how difficult it appeared to be to make a profit following Draws in these leagues. Roll on 3 months, 3 massive losses if backing Draws in these months and I think it’s safe to say my attitude hasn’t changed. I’d go as far to say that I probably should steer clear of Euro Draws as so far, looking at these bets hasn’t been the best idea I’ve had!

Overall, I suspect we’ll see a correction of some sort for the Euro Draw systems over the remainder of the season but with the start they have had, break-even would be a fantastic result in their first live season. 

Monday, 1 December 2014

Results Update

A quick update to round off the month’s results.

It was another tough weekend generally and I’m really pleased to see the back of November. I said the same at the end of September and October though, so that’s us 3 months into the season now and I think it’s proving to be a very tricky season.  As always, some people will be finding it more difficult than others but I think if you are in profit at the end of November, you are doing better than average.  Of course, some will be having a great season, some will be having a nightmare season but I think if you are break-even, you are in a pretty good place given the results.

I mentioned last time about how good the Euro draws did as there were a glut of draws which I thought was some form of correction for the results so far this season in the games I’ve rated. I keep having to add the sentence ‘in games I’ve rated’ as the first 6 games in each league were very good for draws but since I started playing, backing draws in these leagues has been a nightmare.

So far this weekend, there have been 37 Euro games I’ve rated and there has been 3 Draws. Clearly, anyone backing following Euro draw systems this weekend is going to take a hit. The ratings managed to find 2 of the 3 winners (1 on each algorithm) but as luck would have it, the other algorithm didn’t have them and it’s a massive hit again for these systems. The Combo systems didn’t find a winner.

It’s a bit of a shame that in their first season, the Euro draw systems are seeing very difficult trading conditions but as always, I’d rather this happened in their first season when few people are following or when people are following with small stakes than when people have started to follow these systems fully. 

Next post will be a quick update of the underlying results for the leagues and then the following post will be the monthly review. I also want to do a season review to date too since it’s been so tough this season and I think it’s important we draw a breath now we’re nearly 1/3 of the way through the season.

Est Systems

28 winners from 78 bets and a profit of 3.29pts. 

New Systems

 26 winners from 93 bets and a loss of 9.59pts.

Misc Systems

20 winners from 58 bets and a profit of 7.23pts. 

Draw Systems

Only 15 winners from 65 bets and a loss of 13.9pts.

Euro Systems

50 winners from 93 bets and a profit of 44.2pts. These systems benefited from the very low draw strike rate at the weekend but again, I’m disappointed they couldn’t benefit by even more than they did.

Euro Draw Systems

2 winners from 79 bets and a loss of 72.3pts. Carnage!

Overall, a loss of 41.07pts from 466 bets. The Euro systems were again the cause of the majority of the losses.

Wednesday, 26 November 2014

Recent Results Update

It has been a really busy week for the systems since the last update. The systems were down 197pts from the first half of November and on Friday night last week, another 75pts were lost. To be 272pts down on the month, going into a Saturday set of selections is about as scary a month as I can imagine. Massive losses across most systems at this point for the season and there didn’t appear to be much light at the end of the tunnel.

At least a few times a season, everything appears to fall into place for the ratings, we get a little bit of luck, a few teams come back to win and it turns an OK day into an amazing day. Thankfully, this day arrived on Saturday. 365 system bets in total, a profit of 202pts. Wow!

It says it all that even after the best day of the season for the systems, they are still down for the month which is actually quite scary. Without Saturday, we’d have been looking at the worst month ever for the systems, so I’ve at least avoided this (for another month!).

There were too many highlights to mention them all but Altrincham coming back from 2-0 down with 10 men to beat Wrexham has to be the highlight for me. Wrexham did get a man sent off after their 2nd goal and then another man sent off in the second half, so it ended up 10 v 9 but even so, a great achievement to come back from 2-0 down.

The rest of the weekend was treading water, as was the midweek games last night.

In summary then, the systems have pulled back the deficit a fair bit for the month and although it’s going to be another losing month this season unless we hit another big weekend, the ratings and systems are really fighting hard to try to get through this horrible spell. Saturday showed what can happen when we get a few Away winners and if we can just get a few more weekends like this, the season can turn around for us I’m sure.

Here’s the results for all systems.

Est Systems

63 winners from 148 bets and a profit of 39.62pts.

The filtering is always going to look bad on updates like this as you really don’t want to filter out any bets but again, it feels like it has done worse than expected. The higher system bets didn’t do as well as I would have hoped which is the consistent story over the last 2 seasons now.

New Systems

58 winners from 120 bets and a profit of 61.86pts.

A great performance from the ratings here and the filtering wasn’t too bad I think. The filtering of these systems has worked consistently better than the Est Systems for the last two seasons really, so maybe not too surprising.

Misc Systems

38 winners from 82 bets and a profit of 24.14pts.

The SMG systems are having a nightmare of a season and STOZ is the worst of these. These systems rely on Aways predominantly and it’s not been the place to be so far this season.

Draw Systems

32 winners from 86 bets and a profit of 24.45pts.

A good comeback from these systems after a terrible start this season when the strike rate was very low. Things are starting to normalise now and the systems are back on an even keel. Just need them to start making profits now like last season!

Euro Systems

2 (yes 2!) winners from 74 system bets. A loss of 64.4pts.

Euro Draw Systems

41 winners from 86 games and a profit of 59.1pts.

The Euro systems still have the issue of too many games overlapping on both sets of systems and backing two outcomes isn’t profitable long-term as they both don’t have that big an edge. The over-round will eat away at any edge they have.

I guess we just have to stand back and let the best Euro systems win at the end of the day. First time this season the Euro Draw systems actually looked like they know what they are doing!

Overall, a profit of 144.77pts from 596 bets. We could do with a few more updates like this in the near future to build up some momentum as at the moment, the systems are working hard to stand still! 

Tuesday, 18 November 2014

November so far.....

I felt like I gave the ratings and systems lots of praise over the first two months of the season even though results weren’t great as I thought they did a brilliant job of minimising losses given how difficult the underlying results. The first half of November has been like someone has opened the floodgates though and the ratings and systems have been swept away in a tidal of losses unfortunately.

11 weeks into the TFA season and it’s safe to say that we haven’t experienced a start like this before for the Underlying results. The Away strike rate in the UK leagues is abysmally low for the games I’ve rated so far and the losses if backing all Aways is massive. As the number of games rated increases, things should start to trend towards the mean but it’s not happened yet and every time I think we’re seeing an upturn in the number of Away winners, a weekend like Saturday comes along and it’s a bloodbath for Aways again.

I’ve never had a losing November before and it is traditionally a very strong month for the service but unless we see a sharp change in fortunes, this could be the worst month I’ve ever seen for the systems. At a time when I could do with the systems getting a little bit of luck due to how difficult it has been, we’ve been hit by a number of late goals turning wins into losses and combine this with the difficult conditions and it’s not a pretty picture I’m afraid.

The good news is that this is as bad as I’ve ever experienced and assuming we’re all bankrolled appropriately, we will get through it as long as things don’t continue like this indefinitely. I had to delay the bet release for the weekend past as I was away on Thursday and releasing the bets later saved the systems a helluva lot of points as on the Thursday evening, we’d have been on even more of the League Two Aways. 10 games on Fri/Sat in League Two, 9 Home wins and 1 Away win. Unreal.

At times like this, my only solace is to look at the strike rates, look at the historical results and believe that things need to turn at some point. I look forward to things getting back to normal!

Here’s the update. The crazy thing is that we still have 2 weekends left this month. Another two weeks like this and we’ll be analysing the betting banks for the systems at month end. :(

Est Systems

 250 bets, 63 winners and a loss of 65.74pts. I had a quick look at the split between Homes and Aways – Aways lost 65.53pts from 185 bets.

A nightmare month so far for both sets of ratings and all 11 systems. 

New Systems

292 bets, 81 winners and a loss of 69.15pts. Aways lost 80.05ps from 176 bets.

An unbelievably bad month for these systems so far.

Misc Systems

191 bets, 50 winners and a loss of 43.74pts. Aways lost 48.62pts from 142 bets.

Same story as above. Aways have had a nightmare so far this month.

Draw Systems

41 winners from 127 bets and a profit of 15.39pts. 

Slightly better from these systems after a horrible start so far this season. I feel like these systems haven’t had the best of luck so far this season and the P&L should be a little better I suspect. I’ll take any sort of profit on this results update though!

Euro Systems

51 winners from 154 bets and a loss of 16.7pts.  A tougher month for these systems so far but our old friend the Draw has been a menace on these bets so far this month. Probably due a correction after the amazing start these systems had this season.

Euro Draw Systems

39 winners from 144 bets and a loss of 16.8pts. These systems have really struggled this season and of course, when the Euro Systems suffer from too many Draws, it’s not the same games these Draw systems are backing! I keep feeling like a correction is due on these systems as the Draw algorithms are running at -26% and -41% respectively so far this season. They can’t be as bad as this!

Overall, a loss of 197pts from 1,158 bets. An ROI of -17%. That’s probably as big a loss in two weeks as I’ve ever posted. The systems are now in a massive hole this season and all the good work of the last two months in the sense of not losing too many points has gone down the tubes.

It would be easy to start panicking and thinking something is wrong but the underlying results are to blame. I expect to the systems to lose when we see the results we’re seeing.  I can’t expect the systems to win when they are based on historical results and we’re seeing different trends at the moment to what we have seen historically. We have to hope (and pray!) things get back to some sort of normality and we can start moving forward again as at the moment, my ratings are taking a bit of a beating this season.