Friday, 22 August 2014

UK Systems - Draw Indicator

After posting the last blog post, I remembered there was one other piece of analysis I wanted to carry out this Summer. It is something I said I would have a look at after the season was done but being honest, with everything else on the go, it slipped my mind.

What I wanted to look at was the performance of the UK bets and comparing the performance of when they do/don’t appear on a draw algorithm. Of course, the limitation with this analysis is that I have 4 seasons of live results on some UK systems and only one season of live results for the UK Draw systems, so I don’t think we can draw too many conclusions. Having looked at the data, I think it is very confusing and therefore, it’s something we need to park until next Summer I think.

Before looking at the data, I guess I expected to see that results would improve for my systems if the same game didn’t appear on a Draw system. If a game is on a Draw system, it isn’t going to be as profitable as bets that don’t appear on Draw systems. That was my hypothesis but then again, given how profitable the Draw systems looked before they went live, it sort of follows that this would be the case. If the Draw systems had a 20% ROI, it must be the case that the results of the outright systems would be better if the Draw systems didn’t find the same bets!

Anyway, having done the analysis, I think last season is very confusing and doesn’t fit in with the historical results (which to be fair, isn’t totally surprising).  I think once we get a few seasons Draw data behind us, we can draw more meaningful conclusions.

Here are the results anyway:

For the first 3 seasons, it is clear that if the Draw systems don’t find the bets, it is better for the systems results. No surprise given the Draw systems had such high returns. However, last season, the opposite is true. An ROI of 6.2% overall where the bets appear on Draw systems and an ROI of only 1.5% where the bets don’t appear on Draw systems. Hence, rather than reducing stakes where the Draw systems found the same game, we should have been increasing stakes!

I think we need to wait until we get more Draw data and then we can maybe draw more meaningful conclusions.

I’m done with analysis for others.  Next task for me is to decide what I do myself next season! So many ideas, so many ways to play and only 2 weeks left until the first bets!.

Next post will hopefully be a guest blog post from a TFA subscriber. Keep an eye out for it……

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