Sunday, 13 May 2012

8th profitable month in a row!

Just a very quick post to say that the monthly review has been updated for May-12 and is available to read here. (You will need to scroll down to the bottom of the page!)

I’ve also updated the system results as at the end of this season.  You can view these latest results here.
I said this at the start of May to all subscribers and probably mentioned it on the blog that I thought May would prove a very difficult month to make a profit.  It wasn’t really linked to the end of season or the fact the ratings would be less reliable, it was simply to do with the fact that with so few bets, variance would play a much bigger part than usual and if one game went against the systems, they’d probably not be able to recover.

I said it in the last post but that happened last weekend with Rotherham and after that, I’d resigned myself to losing this month. Of course, Everton and Inverness this weekend turned the month around and the systems scraped through with another profit.

If I look at the results of all systems now the season is over and look at the ROI’s that have been achieved, it is absolutely unbelievable.  I’ll obviously be starting on the season review next week and the system reviews for this season etc. so I won’t bore you now but if someone had told me that I would beat last season’s performance this season, I wouldn’t have believed them.

The highlight has to be the fact that 10 of the 11 established systems have achieved an ROI of 10%+ this season.  To have 10 systems out of 11 make a return of 10%+ over a season is nothing short of amazing.  It’s not been the easiest season for shots on goal ratings this season (backed up by the results of other tipsters and ratings) but my ratings have outperformed the others in the market by a long, long way.

Last season, the established systems generated a profit of 263pts across 2,784 bets (9.4%). This season, they have generated a return of 293pts across 2,669 bets (11%).

Over both seasons now, these systems have generated a return of 556pts across 5,453 bets (10.2%). Not bad for a set of football systems.

The combined systems have achieved a profit of 305pts across 1,992 bets across both seasons, an ROI of 15.3%. 

Of course, the planning for next season starts now and as mentioned on Friday’s blog post, there will be an announcement tomorrow on the blog regarding next season.  I’m going to be offering some readers the opportunity to join the service for next season if they wish to continue following The Football Analyst on this journey.  More details will be released tomorrow but places will be limited as you’d expect, so people may have to move quickly. Other places will be opened up to SBC members too, so all places will be filled on a first come, first served basis.

Back tomorrow with more details.


  1. Graeme.


    Count me in for next season. It's just a case of working out the most practical and profitable way of following the systems next year, so look forward to your analysis!

  2. Cheers Andy.

    It isn’t as difficult to find something to suit yourself as it appears with the systems. You ultimately have a view of the number of bets each system is likely to generate in a season and you have an expected profitability for each system now (either based on this season, last season or both seasons) and of course, although the backtested results aren’t worth too much in terms of understanding profitability, they do help you out with number of bets etc. Hence, it isn’t difficult to settle on a strategy.

    It was easy this season really as you couldn’t lose this regardless of how you played the bets but I suspect every season won’t be like this season (although, I hope it is!).

    Anyway, as always, they’ll be plenty to read this Summer and by the time September arrives, we’ll all have our own strategy worked out I’m sure and we’ll all be raring to go for next season.

    A post will appear tonight with details of how to join the fun for next season.



  3. Congrats on an absolutely fantastic season, Graeme. Unbelievable returns, keeping in mind that this is on football.....meaning it is possible to keep the accounts open and build on this.

    All thing considered, in my book TFA is now the best tipster service in the far! (And I have tried a few)


  4. Cheers for the comment Ingus!

    Not quite sure I’d be saying I’m the best tipster in the market at the moment but I think those of you following to date have been spoilt by the fact there aren’t a lot of followers. With so few members, achieving quoted prices has been pretty easy so far and of course, having direct access to me via email is like a personal analyst at your disposal. Combined with the results to date, I’m not sure many other services in the market could offer this overall package but then again, they will have much more members than I do!

    The key for me is to try to grow the service for next season but hopefully not lose the personal touch that I provide to the service and of course, to ensure that prices aren’t vanishing within minutes of my email being released. This will be achieved by capping members as I’ve said before.

    As this season has shown via those following on the blog, as long as the bets are staggered into the market, then the footie market can cope fine with a lot of people following the systems. People following through the blog or people who place bets on a Saturday morning can get within 1% or 2% of my quoted returns as they regularly tell me. Yes, on occasions, some teams are smashed into much lower prices (Inverness being one on Saturday) but on the plus side, some of the big priced away bets drift wildly up to the time of kick-off at Pinnacle or on Betfair, so if you vary when you place your bets, you can beat my odds on these teams.

    The point you make about keeping accounts open is something that is often understated and although I suffer from restrictions myself, compared to others who bet on horseracing, they are nothing alike. In addition, with bookmakers like Pinnacle willing to take large stakes at decent odds, even if the day comes when we can’t get a bet on with a British bookmaker, I’m sure we’d still have these Asian bookmakers to use. Needless to say, that’s a very long way off!

    Anyway, we’ll see what the future holds mate. I’d settle for next season being like this season but I suspect we’ll have a lot more ups and downs next season as variance has a habit of biting you on the backside when you least expect it! I’ll be making sure everyone goes into next season with their eyes wide open, similar to what I did this season! ;)


  5. Hi Graeme,

    Really, really good results - impressive and congratulations.

    I am wondering if you have analyzed the impact it would have if you used some kind of compound staking? As far as I can see you are using the same stake on every bet within a system? By having the initial bank and then staking a percentage of the present bankroll every time which impact would this have on the profit and ROI?

    Keep up the good work and I will probably join your service next year as well :-)


  6. Hi Martin.

    Cheers for the comment. I’ve not had a comment on the blog for ages and I get 3 in one day! :)

    Yeah, I don’t discuss compound staking on the blog and won’t ever. I know a couple of guys play compound staking and they do very well.

    At the end of the day, if the systems are generating smooth returns over large number of bets and generating ROI’s in excess of 10%, you can rest assured that the returns from compound staking would be astronomical. I tend to think people use compound staking as a way of disguising the fact that a system doesn't actually have that good an ROI to level stakes but I don't see too many people using compound staking on systems with good ROI's!

    I personally favour a level staking method but I can see why others would prefer compound staking. My issue with variable staking is that over a season, you end up staking more on bets at the latter end of the season even though historically, backtesting and live results show me that the systems do better in the first half of the season generally. Doesn’t stop variable staking from working well I suspect but just something to consider. I compound my profits season on season and this in effect will get me to where I want to be long-term I hope.



  7. Hi Graeme,

    Congratulations on a great season! Even though I've never commented on the blog before, I'm a long time admirer and, as I announced to my clients a few times already, I'll definitely subscribe to TFA for next season - if you'll have me of course. :)

    Also, thanx for the shout-out in one of your recent posts - I'm glad we have mutual respect for each other as I honestly think both of us are putting in way too much work than our doctors would ever advise. :) Even though yours is a ratings-based service (I'd say the best one out there by far, even though I haven't been a member so far) and my methods combine stats and detailed team-news research, I consider you a true colleague and I found myself cheering for the teams fancied by your algorithms on numerous occasions this season. I really want your service to be around for many, many years - this weird betting world needs more hard workers and less scammers and, in my most idealistic moments, I think together (along with other tipsters and services I respect) we can really influence the way people usually look at paid betting services. Not all of us are here to take the money and run! Some of us simply want to do our jobs the best we can.

    Anyway, it's great to see a fellow service (I'm also sure it's going to be a fellow SBC HoF service before the beginning of next season) run by an intelligent, hard-working guy that always feels the need to analyse every single detail and constantly improve - there's too few of us out there.

    Good luck with all the pre-season work and, as I said, you can count on my membership if you'll have me.


  8. Hi Skeeve.

    I’m actually smiling writing this but having read all of your shortlist pick previews and bets in the SBC forum this season, I actually feel like I know you a little mate. Throw in the fact your names often crops up in emails exchanged between me and a couple of my subscribers (who I must admit, are massive fans of yours!), then I do feel like you’re one of the TFA gang already, even though you’re not a member yet!

    Thanks for your comment. Yeah, it’s hard to comment on other services on the blog without coming across like I’m having a go or trying to make myself look better but when it comes to your service, I don’t feel the need to hide my admiration! A couple of guys who I’ve known for a few years now have followed you during this time and I’m forever being told that you set the benchmark for footie returns over a large number of bets, so my feet is always being kept on the ground by these guys. I know from the SBC forum that you’ve just finished yet another highly profitable season and it amazes me how consistent your returns are across a large number of seasons, never mind number of bets!

    I couldn’t agree more with your thoughts on betting services and I suspect at this present moment, there are a lot of very good footie services (established and up and coming) out there who have put punters in the best possible place to make money than they’ve been in for a long-time. I’m a massive fan of portfolio betting and I’ve said this to others but I see no reason why someone can’t follow a number of football tipsters and make good money every season. I came from the horseracing game where account restrictions were crazy and some guys were getting restricted after half a dozen bets. Footie betting doesn’t have this issue to the same extreme although as I’ve found myself over the past two seasons, you can’t rely on UK bookmakers solely as you’ll be closed down in time!

    I remember reading a comment in the SBC forum a few months ago from someone saying that the only place to make money is on the horseracing due to the high ROI’s that can be achieved across a large number of bets. Not sure I’ve ever disagreed with a written comment anymore in my life but like you I suspect, I let my results do the talking. :)

    I’m sure there is another name for people like us who analyse things to the tenth degree but I’m happy being called intelligent and hardworking rather than an anal so and so!

    Definitely would love to have you on board for next season and I suspect that for someone with your skills, these systems will be right up your street. I’ve said this a few times on the blog but for anyone who’s into number crunching and footie, these systems can provide a Summer of fun, trying to develop a strategy for next season and trying to squeeze every ounce of edge that these systems have.

    Details will be released in the SBC forum/blog tonight, so you can pick up a place no probs mate.



  9. Thanx for the swift reply Graeme,

    The season's been as good as always, even though I was hoping for a 15+% ROI before the postponements in February. The bad weather will sometimes have a scary impact on the number of non-league bets in the 2nd half of the season and, of course, on the final ROI and ROC figures, but, thanx to many good weekends I've had this season, the final stats are more or less as good as they get.

    The consistency you refer to confuses me from time to time as we all know how volatile betting can be short-term, but I'd lie if I'd say I wasn't proud of it. After all these years, I prefer a 'boring' season like this one, without big ups and downs. :)

    I agree with you as far as portfolio betting is concerned and I can't wait to add TFA to my portfolio of other services I'm following. I've been a member of Stu's Football Investor ratings-based service for a couple of years now, but with such a huge difference between your results and the results of his main system bets this season, I think I'll only follow his Strike Zone bets next season. I'm also a long-time member of Football Elite and, along with your service, I'll probably add Scottish Football Bets to the portfolio over the summer as well. It's probably a year too soon for a remark I'm about to state, but I really like the look of my football portfolio for next season.

    I'm not sure if it's ever going to happen, but I'd be delighted if the likes of Pinnacle and SBO ever decide to enter the horceracing market. As things stand now, with most of my UK accounts either severely restricted or simply closed, I can't even think about joining a racing service unfortunately.

    Anyway, if you want to take a look at my 2011/12 official picks review (I know it can't be as detailed as your upcoming review, but I still think it could be an interesting read), I'm just about to post it on the SBC forum.

    Talk to you soon - I wouldn't want to turn your blog into a conversation between two tipsters/analysts, so I'll probably just send you an e-mail next time. :)


  10. Hi Graeme,

    I don't agree with the "I tend to think people use compound staking as a way of disguising the fact that a system doesn't actually have that good an ROI to level stakes".

    By using a compound staking you can capitalize on the profits where the growth will be exponential. If it goes wrong it will reduce the risk progressively. Therefore I don't see any reason why it shouldn't be used on systems with good ROI's as well. No matter the ROI it would make sense to maximize profit and minimize risk :-).

    Of course the stakes might increase quite a lot too (if it is going well) so it requires a lot more mentally. I haven't used compound myself yet but I am thinking of using it in the future.

    The compound staking could include factors that take the expected possibility of winning as well as the betvalue into account.

    I am currently using flat stakes on a lot of my bets but mathematically it is far from being the best solution if you want to maximize profit :-).


  11. Hi again Skeeve.

    I’ll keep this reply short. I get a feeling we could both write a book on this football game! :)

    Just finished reading your review mate. Great review. The depth of the review is actually going to be much greater than mines I suspect as I spent much longer last Summer analysing every aspect of the systems and this Summer, I just want to touch on the performance and then move onto to looking at more systems to build. I tweaked the systems and ratings last Summer but I had every reason to then after the way they performed in the second half of the season! No tweaking this Summer, I assure you. :)

    I’m sure we’ll exchange plenty of emails later this Summer when you get your hands on my historical results and start to look at how you can play next season. I know you like the AH approach (you know more than me about these markets by a long way!), so I’m keen to see what your take on the systems are for next season. :)

    As you say, probably better to take this offline to emails later this Summer although I suspect for blog readers, having us two share views on the systems would be an interesting read I suspect!

    Go and enjoy your Summer break now mate as you must be due one. I’ll still be here when you get back. :)


  12. Hi Martin.

    Sorry, I didn’t mean it to come across like I was rubbishing the idea of compound staking. Far from it. I actually exchanged emails with the guy tonight who I know compounds as he saw my comment earlier and he said he compounds weekly, not daily. He’s said his ROI this season is 25% and his ROC is around 250%. I’m not a fan of quoting the ROC from others as I’ve no idea what betting bank he uses etc.

    I think he’s following 4 of the combined systems, so he will have taken a bit of a hit late on this season I suspect. If I have a quick look at my returns, I suspect his ROC is way in excess of anything level staking could have done this season but the ROI looks in line with what level staking may have achieved.

    As I say, when I’ve seen other services quote returns from compound staking, it’s usually to increase the ROI to a more respectable level. It wasn’t a criticism, just an observation I’ve had over the years.

    End of the day, if anyone can take my returns and improve up on them, good on them. :) You won’t hear me complaining!



  13. Hi Graeme,

    There is no need to apologize :-).

    I agree with you that the ROC is probably by far exceed any level stakes. The question is: Why not benefit from compounding then?

    There can be some problems with limits and more nerves due to higher stakes but anyway I find it quite interesting. Why not maximize profits while at the same time reducing the risk?

    I think it would be interesting to do some research on your systems with different compounding strategies e.g. 2%, 3% and 4% of the bankroll. However, it will depend on the strike rate of the system.

    When entering the spring you could decide to lower stakes (in compounding) or even get back to level stakes if it historically shows that those bets are not that profitable (if not showing a loss).