Wednesday, 14 January 2015

January results so far.....

The first results update of 2015 and I’m pleased to say it has been a pretty good start to the year. That’s probably an understatement really and I reckon this is maybe the best results update I’ve ever posted on the blog. Having been doing this for a number of years now, it’s always good when something out of the blue occurs and given this is usually record losses, it’s nice to be posting a record profit.

Anyone who read the monthly review for December will have seen the fact that the ratings weren’t doing too much wrong, the issue was that they were finding too many draws and as I commented on in the post, if you hit a winner rather than a draw, at the average odds I’m playing at, it makes a massive difference to the P&L.

The first two weeks of 2015 has witnessed the ratings firing in winners left, right and centre and although it can’t last, it always feels good to see the ratings making some spectacular profits in a short space of time. As I always say, it’s easy to make money at this game when things are going well and the true test is how well you do when things are going badly and how much you lose during these spells. I feel like my ratings have fought really hard so far this season to not dig themselves in too big a hole during the tough periods and therefore, we’re seeing the benefit of this now we’ve had a good spell.

The only thing I can be sure of is the next downturn isn’t too far away as every time my own P&L hits a new high, I tend to lose money soon after.

Anyway, here’s the results so far for January.

Est Systems

A profit of 116.88pts from 172 bets. Quite amazing returns and to hit 91 winners from 172 bets at an average odds of 3.23 takes some doing. Positive variance I would say!

New Systems

A profit of 99.59pts from 225 bets. More positive variance but given how bad last month was for these systems, it is just getting the losses back!

Misc Systems

A profit of 79.97pts from 121 bets.

Draw Systems

A loss of 15.74pts from 64 bets. I think these systems aren’t getting any breaks at all. So many games are finishing 1-0 at the moment and therefore, they are very close to hitting winners. I did a quick check and I think there is a higher % of games under 2.5 goals this season compared to last season on these systems and yet, the strike rate for draws is 3% points lower. Probably missing 5 or 6 winners which would appear on multiple systems but it’s thin lines and so on.

Euro Systems

A profit of 104.1pts from 130 bets. Another amazing return from these systems this season after a poor December. We’ll know more about these Euro ratings at season end but possibly, these systems may have an edge which would be great news for the long-term.

Euro Draw Systems

A profit 30.3pts from 97 bets. A profit beats a loss I guess but a long way back to break-even for these systems this season, never mind trying to make a profit!

Overall, a profit of 415.1pts from 809 bets. Had worse results updates on the blog in the last 5 years!

Let’s see what the rest of the month brings. I really hope I’m proven wrong but I will be amazed if the profit at the end of the month is this high. It would smash the record for the best ever month I think although it’s not something I really look at for all systems combined. 

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