Friday, 13 March 2015

February 2015 Monthly Review

Well, I’ve managed to go a whole 6 weeks without a results update on the blog. The last post was a review of January and now we’re in the middle of March.

Anyone following the service will be aware of why this is but for those not seeing my emails, the truth is that I have found it incredibly difficult this season to dedicate as much time to the football project as previously. Becoming a Dad has had a massive impact on my spare time as you would imagine and combined with my career continuing to take up more and more of my time, it’s been nearly impossible to get time to do blog posts etc.

I just about have enough time to send bets out, update results & ratings and place some of my bets and monitor my own betting results. Unfortunately, trying to do any value adds like blog posts or one-off pieces of analysis, it has been impossible. Being honest, I don’t see this changing in the near future and I expect TFA as a service will look a little different next year. I did say that last year but my issue is so many people use the systems and ratings in various ways, it’s hard to reduce the workload without impacting someone!

Anyway, enough of my moaning. The is going to be a very, very quick overview of the performance of the systems in February. I won’t call it a review, I’m not really reviewing anything!

Given we’re halfway through March and things haven’t really improved, it has been a tough 6 or 7 weeks I’m afraid but that’s part of the game as I know only too well!

Est Systems

Here’s the results of both of the rating algorithms and the 11 systems:

An amazing performance from algorithm 1 with a profit of 17.1pts from 88 bets. As has been the case for most of the seasons, all of the profits have come in the lower value band. Algorithm 2 made a small loss of 0.2pts and again, it was the lower value band bets that have kept this algorithm afloat.

In total, the 11 systems made a loss of 20.2pts from 399 bets. Disappointing considering the algorithm results weren’t too bad this month.

As has been the case for the last few seasons (wow, seems a long time!), the filtering of the algorithms just doesn’t work. System 7 made a loss even though system 6 had an amazing month. Sort of sums up the filtering I’m afraid.

New Systems

Here’s the results of both of the rating algortihms and the 11 systems:

A loss on algorithm 3, a loss on algorithm 4 and a loss of 23.1pts from 513 bets from the 11 systems. Algorithm 4 somehow made 22.6pts profit from 19 low value Away bets! These traditionally aren’t the best bets, so sort of sums up the way this season has gone!

System 31-41 managed to make a profit even though both algorithms had a poor month. Apart from this, no other highlights.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for the 6 systems:

 A loss of 7.1pts from the 316 bets.

Draw Systems

Here’s the results for the 11 systems:

 A loss of 26.4pts from 337 bets. Another very tough month for these systems and the season has been disappointing considering the results last season. I hope that in future, we look back on this season’s very low draw strike rate and say these UK Draw systems did well to only have a small loss!

Euro Systems

Here’s the results for the 11 systems:

A profit of 89.3pts from 331 bets. All 11 systems made a decent profit again, so difficult to have too many complaints.

Euro Draw Systems

Here’s the results for the 11 systems:

 A loss of 66.6pts from 315 bets.

It’s becoming a bit of race between the Euro Systems and the Euro Draw Systems. The Euro systems are doing an amazing job at trying to cover the losses on the Euro Draw systems! Would be some achievement to cover these losses fully I suspect but so far, they’re doing a good job. I keep expecting the Euro Draw systems to have an odd week where results go well but not happened too often all season.

Overall, a loss of 54.1pts from 2,211 bets across the month. Felt like a much worse month unless you are top heavy on Euro system bets! 

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