I spent a lot of time at the start of October writing a blog post discussing the Underlying results for September. Given trends haven’t really changed too much, I won’t spend too much time on this post. The additional info in this post that wasn’t there last month is for the Euro bets, so I will touch on these results so far this season too.
In terms of the UK results, below is the table which summarises the results so far.
October’s loss on Aways wasn’t as bad as September’s loss but even so, a loss of 11% if backing all Aways is a difficult place to start from for Away betting. Homes had a good month again with a 5.8% ROI. Draws ended the month with a profit also of 3.5% which is a big improvement on September’s results.
I would therefore expect my Home system bets to have been profitable in October, I would expect my Aways to be loss making (again!) and I would have hoped for a decent profit from Draws. Of course, my results aren’t 100% correlated to the Underlying results but there is enough of a correlation to help understand some of the trends we see on a monthly basis.
In terms of terms of the season to date, a nightmare season so far for Aways with a 15.4% loss. This has been the toughest start to any season for Aways since I started playing this game 5 seasons ago. It’s also one of the toughest runs ever although it’s not the worst run by any means. We have had periods of 4 or 5 months in a row where Aways have been loss making but I guess the difference this season is that we are seeing it at the start of the season which always seems to hurt a little more!
The best algorithm so far this season has been algorithm 1 (system 6) and it is showing a profit of 2.9% which is a tremendous result given the difficulties faced so far. Algorithms 2 & 3 are not far away from break-even and again, given the difficulties so far, I think this is a respectable effort.
I guess my big concern is algorithm 4. It was my weakest algorithm coming into the season and after 2 months, I’ve not seen too much to change my mind. I’ve said this before but the strength of an algorithm is always seen during a tough period rather than an easy period as all algorithms make profits during an easy period. A loss of 8.5% is not a disaster given the underlying results and there is a big away bias on this algorithm which is not helping things this season at all. Hopefully once things start to get easier for Away betting, algorithm 4 can bounce back but at the moment, it has questions to answer.
I think that’s a brief overview of the UK results so far. Keep these results in mind when I review the UK systems.
Below are the results for the Euro games I’ve rated so far:
The first thing that strikes me looking at this is that I only wish the UK leagues had this pattern of results this season! :(
A big bias towards Aways, a small bias towards Homes which means that Draws have been in short supply. Basically, it’s been very easy to make profits backing Homes/Aways (Euro Systems) and it has been a nightmare for anyone trying to back Draws (Euro Draw systems).
I spent a little time looking at the overall results this season for Draws and not just the games I’ve rated and the results aren’t too bad overall for Draws. There was a bit of a bias towards Draws in the first 6 games played in each league and what we are seeing is something of a correction I suspect. Unfortunately, my Euro Draw systems in their first live season went live at the start of the correction and I’m already thinking break-even for these systems would be an amazing result this season. I’d probably take a small loss!
In a way, I’m really glad I wrote the blog post on the Underlying Euro results before the season started as it really opened my eyes to how difficult it can be making a profit from backing Draws in the Euro leagues and after 5 weeks, I’m seeing this myself! The Home ROI is very steady, so what we have seen is a number of Aways teams winning when they should really be drawing and this has caused the Euro Draw systems to get off to a terrible start.
The good news is that as my table shows, I’ll rate over 2,000 games a season for the Euro leagues and therefore, we are only just over 10% of the way through our season. The first weekend of November was another nightmare for Euro Draw backers and therefore, the overall ROI for backing all Draws in games I’ve rated is now -20%. We are now due a correction the other way I hope!