One thing that I have been doing a lot of in the last few weeks or so is running different scenarios for a few people for next season. People are trying to build portfolios using my systems for next season and due to the fact I'm a pretty good analyst (self praise is no praise!), then I've been trying to help out where I can.
Clearly, this is a bit of an issue with the way the current systems are set up to work. Only I have access to all my historical results data and therefore, people need to rely on me to run scenarios for them and to try to understand how certain systems may work in a portfolio or not.
If I wind the clock back a little, I saw this football project as a 3 year project at the outset. The first year was about building ratings and systems that work. The second year was about consolidating what I'd done and building some more ratings/systems that work and the 3rd year was going to be about looking at ways to try to maximise profits from the systems for everyone.
I think I'm well into the 2nd year now (I started out in Jan-10) and therefore, I think I'm pretty much done with tweaking ratings and building new systems. Assuming next season went well and all my systems performed as I'd like them too, I'd have 20 unique systems to go forward with from the end of the season. 11 systems would have two season's of proofed results and 9 systems would have a season's proofed results.
The next question then would be, how do we use these systems and how do people build their own portfolios to suit their own risk aversion using these systems?
I'm the sort of person that always has ideas floating around their mind and you won't be surprised to hear I'm already thinking about how this would work. Of course, I'm not going to even contemplate looking at this until the end of next season as I don't want to get too far ahead of the game. At the moment, I only have 11 systems proven over one season. It's a big leap to assume that these will all perform as I expect next season and that I won't hit a problem or two along the way.
If we can just imagine that next season goes really well though, then what is the next logical step for this project?
Well, it has to be to find a way to allow people to build their own portfolios using these systems. I'm sort of seeing it already but people could have a drop down box of all the systems and they can pick what systems they want to follow. They can then pick whether they want to follow H/A or DNB for the system and of course, they could decide to back homes outright and cover the draw for away teams. They can then select their stakes for Homes and Aways and ss if by magic, the results would appear which would show the individual the portfolio performance over time, the returns achieved by month,season,league etc. It would also show KPIs such as longest losing run, largest drawdown and then calculate a betting bank based on how safe the person wants to be.
This would allow people to sit and compare lots of different portfolio's until they get a portfolio that suits their needs.
Even when I think about this now, it sounds great and it's the sort of thing that I can really see helping people make informed decisions around which systems to follow and how to best maximise their profits.
Anyway, I thought I'd just throw this out there as an idea of where this venture could be going in a season's time. Allowing everyone to choose a portfolio that they'd like to follow. I'm sure I'll continue to keep tweaking existing systems and probably developing more systems as time progresses but I think the next big leap has to involve helping others use these systems to maximise their own returns.
Sound like a good idea?