Friday, 26 June 2015

UK Draws Season Review 2014/15

I think the most difficult systems to review this Summer are the UK Draw systems. This was their 2nd live season and the results in the first season were very impressive on most of the systems. As I alluded to last Summer, the results were even better when compared to the underlying draw strike rates in the UK leagues and the 2013/14 season was the lowest strike rate for draws since the 2007/8 season. Therefore, to produce these results below in the first season of live results was impressive to say the least:

I think coming into last season, I probably had in the back of my mind that the UK draw systems were possibly my best systems. Yes, they didn’t have anywhere near the profits or number of bets as my other UK systems but given they had only been live for 1 season, you had to look beyond this. My assumption was that the 2014/15 season couldn’t be any tougher than the 2013/14 season and therefore, if the underlying results were a little easier, the profits should improve and we would have a serious set of systems on our hands after 2 seasons.

Unfortunately, the strike rate was draws in the season past was the lower than it was in 2007/8! A strike rate of only 25.3% last season makes it the toughest season for draws since 2006/7 and one of the toughest seasons for draws you could ever expect I think. Therefore, any plans of the UK Draws having a great season last season went out of the window quite early on as they got themselves into a bit of a hole and at one stage, break-even looked a helluva long way away from being achieved. However, the systems ended the season well as the strike rate picked up a little in April and the results for the season were:

Overall, these results are disappointing and seeing 5 of the 11 systems making a loss over the season means it can never be a good season for the systems. However, when you consider the underlying results produced a strike rate of 25.3% for draws, then it is a positive that every system managed to beat this strike rate and although they couldn’t turn it into a profit on every system, having 5 systems in profit is not easy when the results are so tough.

I think the most pleasing aspect of these results is the fact that both algorithms made a profit independently. System D6 made an ROI of 5.8% over the season to Pinnacle prices when the P&L to best draw prices was a loss a loss of over 6%. In my opinion, this is probably the best result of any system I’ve ever had over a season. It was very tough to break-even over the season but to make a profit of this magnitude is an amazing performance.

Although system D1 wasn’t anywhere near as impressive, to make a profit of 1.7% is acceptable in a season like this and I think both UK Draw algorithms outperformed the other UK algorithms by a long, long way. The only thing that stops these algorithms being hailed as the best last season will be the performance of the Euro algorithms as we’ll see when I review these systems.

The filtering on systems D2 & D3 and D7 didn’t really work well last season but being honest, it’s hard to be too critical given the underlying results.

The combined systems were nowhere near as impressive as the first season although I think seeing D1-D6 hit a 4.6% ROI in a season as tough as this, combined with the results in the first season means this system is potentially very, very good. I look forward to seeing what this system can do when the underlying draw strike rate increases by a 2%-3% like previous seasons.

If we look at the results of both seasons combined, here they are:

I’ll start with the positives first. After 2 very tough seasons for draw bettors, these results are pretty good I think. Yes, none of the systems are statistically significant and it’s too early to be putting all our eggs in one basket with these systems but given the underlying results so far, I think these results are exceptional.

Both algorithms are doing as they are intended to do and are making a small profit over a large number of bets. A 2.7% and 3% ROI respectively won’t make you rich but if you can turn 5%-6% losses for underlying results into a couple of % points profits to Pinny prices only, you have a great base to work from.

The filtering from system D1 to D2 works exceptionally well at the moment. The filtering from system D2 to D3 is about as bad as you could do! To turn a 12.9% profit on D2 into a -5.6% loss on D3 takes some going!

The filtering from system D6 to D7 is pretty good although not as good as moving from D1 to D2.

The real power of these systems appears to be in the combined systems though. Systems D1-D6 to D2-D7 have now built up very good results over 2 seasons and if the underlying results can just get a little bit easier over the next few years, the results for these systems could be even better I suspect.

Systems D3-D6 and D3-D7 obviously suffer badly from the results with system D3 and therefore, I don’t think these systems add anything to the other systems.

Overall then, still early days for these UK Draw systems but two seasons in, I’m really pleased with these results. Yes, I would have hoped for a better season last season but given the underlying results, we’ll accept these results and move onto next season with a fair degree of confidence.

Summer Actions – System D3 and Systems D3-D6 and D3-D7 will be retired. I don’t see the need for these systems going forward. Not sure they add anything to my proofed results and the turnover on the systems is far too low anyway. I don’t plan on touching these systems too much over the Summer. I’ll take a look at them and see if any tweaks could be applied but I’m never a fan of touching something that isn’t broken or even appears to be on the decline. I’m not sure we’ve seen the best of these systems yet. 

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