Monday, 20 May 2013

May-13 Monthly Review

This is a short monthly review. Not going to review the systems in any great depth at all as there is no need. One partial month doesn’t tell you much although I think it shows what can happen when things don’t go your way if you have a set of systems with no clear edge. The Euro systems managed to lose all of the season’s profits and a helluva lot more this month and it’s quite amazing really. If I had packed up the systems at the end of March, it would have been a different story.

At the end of March, the Euro systems had a profit of 147.3pts from 2,211 bets. At the end of season, this now reads….A loss of 127.7pts from 2,880 bets. Hence, the systems have lost 275pts from 669 bets. If you assume that the bookies play with a 5% overround, it’s a remarkable achievement to lose so many points in a small sample of bets!

The loss is much lower if using any form of draw coverage and therefore, the draw has been a pest but even so, it is a shocking performance from the systems. Now, people could point out that 669 bets isn’t a big sample and of course, they are correct but as I’ve been saying on the blog for a while, these systems have struggled all season. They haven’t performed anything like what I expected (or hoped) and therefore, it’s better that we at least see the true underlying results now rather than stagger onto next season with the same set of systems and then lose a small fortune thinking we’re following something with an edge.

Anyway, I will keep my other comments on the Euro systems until I do the season review of them but let’s just say these systems are my first failure at this football betting game. The irony is, even though the systems have been terrible, I doubt anyone has done much damage at all and it was probably a lucky escape for all of us following these with small stakes this season. Next season, I’ll give the Euro leagues another go but I won’t be following with small stakes. I will paper trial the systems which is something I have never really done with my systems before (a lot of work for nothing!) but I’m scarred after seeing the poor run to end this season!

Here’s the monthly review.

Est Systems

Amazed that these systems made a profit when all the other systems were terrible but they managed it. A profit of 3.4pts from 21 bets. The combined systems made a profit of 3.7pts from 6 bets. Given the mess the other systems made, you have to say these systems did well to keep their powder dry and if they had more bets, I’ve no doubt that they would have lost money this month.

New Systems

A loss of 4.3pts from 50 bets. No real damage done and the combined systems scraped a small profit which is always pleasing.  A really good first season for these combined systems in total and should give us another profit opportunity next season hopefully.

Misc Systems

 A small loss of 0.7pts from 20 bets.  No real damage done and it has been a great season for these systems.  I was disappointed with the first season but I kept my nerve (others would have binned these systems I suspect!) and it has paid dividends.

Under/Over Systems

 A loss of 1.3pts from 10 bets. Sums up these systems….rubbish!

Euro Systems

36 winners from 326 bets says it all really. A loss of 201.2pts from 326 bets. I remember the time when the Est Systems lost nearly 100pts in a month and I thought that was nearly impossible but boy, this loss takes the biscuit! The base ratings were terrible but trying to narrow down a set of terrible bets and make it worse is quite difficult to do but these systems managed it. E2-E7 managed to draw a blank from 14 bets which takes some doing. Lots of draws in there but still, a shocking month!

Well, I hope I don’t post too many months as bad this one. A loss of 204.1pts from 427 bets. Not much more to add but say the Euro systems are not much good to anyone I’m afraid!

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