Monday, 6 May 2013

Back to the drawing board

A shocking weekend for the Euro bets again and these Euro ratings have toppled off the edge of the cliff I’m afraid. I think it’s only a matter of time before a loss occurs when you are tracking something that doesn’t have an edge and clearly, these Euro ratings don’t have a significant edge. The overall returns from the 11 systems are now in negative territory for the season and the 6 combined systems are down to an ROI of 2%. That’s a clear indication of the fact the ratings are no good regardless of the results.

The base ratings themselves are now heavily loss making and although there are two weeks of the season left, these ratings in their current guise are effectively dead.  I’ll carry out the post mortem once the season finishes in two weeks but I’ll give it another go with a new set of Euro ratings next season on a trial basis again like this season but after this season, my priority remains the UK leagues and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.  I wouldn’t touch the Euro systems with a bargepole next season and that’s going to be my advice to everyone!

If I can’t get something to work next season, I’ll just give up on the Euro leagues and stick with the UK leagues. Not going to put myself under pressure to crack another set of leagues when I clearly have a significant edge in the UK leagues at the moment.

Anyway, onto the weekend the results.

Est Systems

A decent weekend with a profit of 11.41pts from 13 bets.

New Systems

17.21pts profit from 25 bets. Another decent weekend.

Misc Systems

 6.34pts profit from 13 bets.

Under/Over Systems

A profit of 0.31pts from 4 bets. 2 correct, 2 wrong.

Euro Systems

Where do you start? 4 winners from 121 bets. I think in terms of unique bets, it was 28 bets, 2 winners, 10 draws and 16 losers. Wouldn’t have taken too many of the draws to be winners to paper over the cracks but I think you need to admit defeat at times. These Euro ratings have been rubbish all season if I’m honest and they’ve been saved by the fact that cross referring the algorithms has helped minimise the damage but when the ratings are so bad, you are fighting a losing battle.

A loss of 108.5pts from 121 bets. AH0.5 was only a loss of 40.2pts, so you can see the draw was a pain but even so, it’s not acceptable.

Overall, a loss of 73.19pts from 176 bets.

Personally, my main portfolio continues to perform well but my second portfolio has dropped off a cliff along with the Euro systems! Very disappointing really given the profits the second portfolio had 5-6 weeks ago but my own Euro systems have struggled at the same time as the other systems in that portfolio, so it’s not been a great time for my second portfolio.  One reason for running a second portfolio to lower stakes is due to the fact the systems aren’t proven enough to be in my main portfolio, so I guess this current run shows the need for an appropriate staking plan!

Seems a bit mad that I’m writing this quite disappointed given the season the systems have had but part of my aim of this season was to try to find something to work in the Euro leagues long-term and unfortunately, it’s back to the drawing board again this Summer.

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