Saturday, 1 June 2013

2012/13 Season Review Part Five - Systems 6-32,21-31,6-21-31,TOX,STOY,STOZ

I think if this season has taught us something, it’s that my first instincts are maybe not as far off as they may initially appear. Two Summers ago when I developed the Similar Games (SG) systems, I was probably as bullish as I’ve ever been about a set of systems. In private and on the blog, I made my feelings perfectly clear that I thought these 3 systems could potentially be the best systems I’d ever seen from the backtested results. Given that was after the first season where the results of a number of systems were unbelievable, I think some people thought my comments were a little bit mad!

Two seasons ago, I dived straight into the SG systems with full stakes (I’m pretty conservative when following unproven systems but not with these) and to say it was disappointing was an understatement. I can’t quite recall how much I staked in £ terms (was a helluva lot!) but I basically quit in March that season when I was break-even. The systems then went on a decent little run towards the end of the season and actually managed a small profit over the season but to say I was underwhelmed was an understatement.

Last Summer, I thought long and hard about these 3 systems and I actually thought about dropping them completely form the TFA portfolio of systems as clearly, they didn’t look very good. However, when doing the system reviews last Summer, I realised the results weren’t all that bad as the systems struggled a lot with draws and if a few more results had gone their way, it would have been a much better season.

Anyway, I decided that I should have more in my first instincts and this season, these 3 systems were  a large part of my betting portfolio. I would go as far to say that I overstaked these bets which is never a bright thing to do but I just had a deep belief that the systems couldn’t do any worse than the first season.  If I stand back now and compare that to the Euro systems (which to be honest, I didn’t trust last season at all and never got comfortable with them even people were telling they were fine and had a decent edge!) and even the Under/Over systems (which I have never trusted from day one), then clearly, my first instincts aren’t too far off.

A lesson for myself here I think and a lesson for those that listen to my advice from my postings on the blog.

These 3 systems only make up 50% of the results on the Misc systems. The other 3 systems are solid enough systems but they aren’t great I think. Thought that after the first season and to be honest, think the same after this season. However, they are still better than most of the other footie systems on the market. We’re just spoilt here with the fact TFA has so many good systems to follow!

Season 2012/13 Performance

These systems were the most consistent systems over the season. They started the season well, didn’t have any major midseason blips and finished the season pretty well (although I felt like they were hanging on a little towards the end but I think it wasn’t too bad).

I think we need to look at the performance of the Misc systems in two parts. We have the systems 6-32, 21-31 and 6-21-32 which are simply made up of combinations of Est Systems and New Systems. We then have TOX, STOY and STOZ which are a little bit different although the ratings for the Est Systems and New Systems underpin the bets but the bets have an added dimension to them in the sense they are based on historical trends too.  Hence, this added flavour clearly didn’t do much to the SG bets in season one but boy, has it made a difference last season.

System 21-31 led the way from the first 3 systems with an ROI of 7.9% from 469 bets. As I said above, if this was a normal footie system in the marketplace, it would be a highly respectable system I think.  Maybe in the top 10% of football systems?  Doesn’t even make the top 10 TFA systems!

The other two systems didn’t have bad seasons either. A 6.1% return for 6-32 from 243 bets and a 6.1% return from 449 bets for system 6-21-31.

If we look at the 3 SG systems, we’ll see a slightly different picture.  STOZ led the way with an ROI of 21.6% from 336 bets. That’s a profit of 72.7pts this season. TOX wasn’t too far behind and had an ROI of 20.6% from 306 bets. The lowest performing system was STOY which ‘only’ achieved an ROI of 16.2% from 307 bets.

Overall, the SG systems in total achieved an ROI of 19.5% across 949 bets. A profit of 185.5pts in total across 3 systems. A stunning return and goes along way to showing why I had such a good season myself.

If we look at the 6 Misc systems in total, it’s a profit of 264.9pts from 2,110 bets last season. A much better performance than the first season!

All Live Results

Interestingly, given the fact the SG systems had a poor first season, when you look at the results over the last two seasons, there isn’t such a big gap between the first 3 systems and the 3 SG systems as we saw this season. However, the SG systems now start to look very special I think and given the performance last season, they have a great deal of potential I suspect going forward.

STOZ leads the way with a 13.9% ROI across 608 bets. TOX isn’t far behind with an ROI of 12.8% 585 bets and STOY has an ROI of 10.3% from 588 bets.

The other 3 systems don’t look too bad themselves with ROIs ranging from 4.7% to 8.5%.  As I say, these 3 systems aren’t bad at all but compared to the 3 SG systems, they look fairly ordinary I think.

The power of the SG systems can be seen from the ROC figures from last season. STOZ led the way with an unbelievable ROC of 181.7%. This is actually the best ROC any of my systems has ever managed in a season and therefore, this puts this system pretty high up the pecking order I suspect of systems in the marketplace. In any other season, TOX would surely be taking all the plaudits going with an ROC of 140.4% and likewise, STOY isn’t too shabby either with an ROC of 103.5%.

21-31 and 6-21-31 managed ROC’s of 63.8% and 54.9% respectively and the only slight disappointment is system 6-32 with an ROC of 29.9%.

Overall, some stunning returns from these systems over the first two seasons and I think they enter their 3rd season next season in a much better place than they entered last season! Of course, with that comes added pressure and I can’t imagine I’ll be the only one keen on these systems again next season but hopefully they can produce a similar level of return.

Targets for 2013/14 Season

Going into last season, the actual targets for these systems weren’t that high and they absolutely smashed the targets out the park, so I don’t want to go mad with the targets next season as it would be unrealistic to expect the systems to achieve the same returns again.

Before I discuss the targets, I should point out that even after that amazing season, I’m increasing the betting banks for the SG systems. They look a little light after seeing one of the drawdowns last season (which admittedly, all  happened in two weeks and was then recovered in one week) but even so, I think we should adjust the betting banks as a result of the drawdown. An extra 5pts has been added to the bank for TOX and STOY and 2pts for STOY.

As you would expect, the 3 SG systems have the highest ROI and ROC targets next season. STOZ leads the way with an ROC target of 80%. TOX and STOY have 66% and 60% as targets and 21-31 and 6-21-31 both have a 54% target. The only system that doesn’t look worth following is system 6-32 which has an ROC target of only 18%. The system doesn’t have enough turnover unfortunately and doesn’t achieve a high enough ROI for it to be of interest for most of us going forward.

 Detailed Analysis (All live results e.g. last two seasons)

Performance by Season

I doubt you’ll see this sort of improvement often from a set of systems than you’ve seen this season with the SG systems. The 3 systems achieved an ROI of circa. 4% last season and now have achieved a near 20% ROI this season. 5 times as high and a massive improvement.

Last season, the systems achieved a similar level of return for outright betting as for betting with AH0.5 but this season, outright returns were much, much better. Again, it points to the systems maybe being a little unlucky last season with draws.

Interestingly, system 6-32 actually had a better season this season than last season even though it is the worst performing system in the group. The other two systems 21-31 and 6-21-31 did better in the first season but they at least now have two very similar seasons and in a way, that gives me confidence in the systems. Although the SG systems have been brilliant this season, maybe they carry more risk after what happened the first season and maybe the other two are safer options as at least they have two good seasons behind them and look fairly solid.

Looking at the Misc systems in total, I would say last season maybe wasn’t twice as good as the first season although the outright returns indicate this. As you look along the row of returns, the draw coverage ate away at the profit margin last season whereas the first season, covering draws wasn’t a bad idea at all given the number of draws.

Performance by League

It’s quite scary to think that even with these returns, two of the six leagues are losing money! League Two and the SPL are both showing quite poor losses and it obviously means the returns in the other leagues are amazing! We really need to wait to see what areas are causing the losses as I would guess it’s SPL Homes and League Two Aways based on what I’ve seen on other systems.

Performance by League and Season

In the first season, League Two created a substantial loss of 15% if backing outright (AH0.5 was profitable) but all the other leagues were profitable.

Last season, the SPL created a substantial loss of 30% but importantly, League Two was much better than the first season. Based on the first season, you might have dropped League Two but it would have cost you money last season I’m afraid.

Performance by Home and Away

I remember discussing the performance of the Homes after I built the SG systems, I remember discussing the performance of Homes during the first season when the systems didn’t do well.  Well, if you look at the performance of the Homes on the SG systems now, it is truly stunning. Admittedly, the sample sizes are very small and I wouldn’t like to be betting my life on this trend going forward but so far, the Homes on the SG systems are the best Homes I’ve ever seen on a football system.

STOZ leads the way with an ROI of 24.3%. The other two SG systems have an ROI of 22.4% and 18.9%. Given the average odds on these systems is 2.45, 2.22 and 2.25, to see ROI’s of 20% is nearly impossible to believe. I’ve seen it done by Away bets before where you need to play at big odds to achieve ROI’s of 20%+ but to see it on Home bets is incredible.

Interestingly, the Home bets on the other 3 systems really struggle if I’m honest. None of the systems can beat a 5% ROI for Home bets.

The Aways are much better on the other 3 systems and are actually in line with the Aways on the SG systems.

I think what I’m getting at here is that you don’t need to follow the Homes and Aways on any system. If you want to, you can split any system into Homes and Aways and maybe you take the Homes from one system and the Aways from another and create some form of Super System for you to follow.  Admittedly, you don’t want to be just cherrypicking the bets from the systems as you are in danger of backfitting something that you’ll never manage to achieve live I suspect but when there are clear trends (the Homes on the SG systems are the best homes from all my systems I think), then you really need to play on it and maximise your profits to the max.

Performance by Home and Away by League

Some really clear trends here and with two seasons behind these, maybe it’s worth considering varying your stakes or varying the bets a little to try to maximise profits.

League Two Aways are terrible if following outright but if using AH0.5, you can probably minimise your risk exposure based on the first two season’s performance.

The SPL Homes are simply terrible and are probably the worst subset of data I’ve seen reviewing the systems this Summer. An ROI of -45.7% is crazy and although the sample size is small, we’ve seen similar issues on the other systems. The SPL looks a tricky league full stop. Is it worth the hassle of trying to find an edge in this league when the results look so variable at times?

Obviously, there are lots of pockets of bets where the returns are amazing and maybe it’s a case of trying to increase stakes on these and minimise stakes on the bets which appear to struggle to find an edge or at least, keep an eye on the trends early next season and maybe adjust your stakes accordingly if you feel the trends are continuing.

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