Wednesday, 5 June 2013

2012/13 Season Review Part Eight - Euro Systems E1-E6, E1-E7,E2-E6,E2-E7,E3-E6,E3-E7

Similarly to the last review, this review will be fairly short. Anyone who was following these Euro systems in their first season probably did so with much reduced stakes. In reality, I would expect they were also following the higher combined systems since these had the highest ROI’s during backtesting. Therefore, if the worst happens and the ratings bomb, the combined systems could possibly be a little bit better based on the fact the combined systems tend to improve on the base ratings and systems.

Importantly, anyone who contacted me last Summer for advice on the Euro systems (and had made the decision they wanted to play these systems in their first season) were told to play reduced stakes and to minimise the exposure to their portfolio by only selecting a lower number of systems compared to the UK systems. This meant that most people ended up with a single Euro Combined system (E2-E7 or E3-E7) in their portfolio if they wanted to follow these systems. Therefore, all precautions were taken where possible to ensure that this risk of these systems were mitigated. 

Now the season is over, I actually think I should have gone one step beyond this and really tried to steer people clear of these systems altogether. I let my previous success at rating building affect my judgement and given my previous success at finding something to work in the UK, I assumed at the very least, I would find a small profitable edge in the Euro leagues. Hindsight is wonderful and given my lack of experience of these leagues, in addition to the fact that I don’t see too many other rating algorithms around for these Euro leagues, I should have been more cautious.

Next season, I will definitely NOT be following the Euro systems with any sort of decent sized stakes and I will be paper trialling these in effect. In reality, I’ll probably play a couple of the higher combined systems with low stakes (talking £5 or £10!) so I can get a feel for placing the bets and the type of bets but this will be for testing purposes only. My suggestion to everyone else next season will be the same. If they choose to ignore this advice, then fine but it will be my recommended approach. There is no rush at this game and if we find these bets are massively profitable next season, we can follow them the season after and increase stakes after that season if things go well. Looking at the results of the Euro combined systems coming up, I actually think a lot of us following last season were lucky in the sense the results could have been much, much worse! I don’t want anyone to put themselves in that position again.

Season 2012/13 Performance & All Live Results

I can probably refer back to the comment I just made about luck now I see these results. The fact the top 3 combined systems managed a small profit when the base ratings performed very badly is partially down to luck I think as well as the fact that it shows why I cross refer my algorithms! The two most popular systems people followed were E2-E7 and E3-E7 and therefore, the fact both escaped with a small profit is quite amazing and maybe explains why people didn’t really appreciate how bad the Euro ratings were until much later than me. I guess if the person giving you the bets is telling you the ratings are rubbish and it’s a matter of time before they lose money, you maybe struggle to believe it when in effect, you yourself are making money from following your chosen system or systems.

However, the whole principle that underlies the systems is that you need to have profitable ratings algorithms underpinning the systems and unfortunately, for the majority of the season, this wasn’t happening, regardless of how the systems were performing.  At one point after that amazing weekend when nearly all the big priced Euro bets won, I thought I was maybe wrong and the ratings were finally starting to show their worth but it was a false dawn as we later saw.

Overall then, a 25pts loss from 1,167 bets isn’t a bad performance for the combined systems considering the base ratings were much worse than this! The fact the top 3 systems generated a profit is nearly defying logic I suspect but I think we got lucky last season if I’m honest!

Targets for 2013/14 Season

Can’t say much here that I didn’t say in the last review but I think the important thing that this season did show all of us is that my system building by cross referring the algorithms is very powerful. I know some people reading this actually hate the fact I run different algorithms and cross refer them whereas others think it’s great and this season with the Euros has shown the protection this gives you when things go bad.

My intention is to build two new algorithms, create 5 base systems E1,E2,E3,E6,E7 and then cross refer them again to get 6 new combined Euro systems.  I don’t think there is anything wrong with this idea and the execution of it. Unfortunately, I need to do a bit better than build rating algorithms that create a 10% loss though!

Detailed Analysis

Performance by League

A similar story to the other Euro systems where there is a massive loss in Italy if backing outright but a profit if using AH0.5. France and Spain are profitable outright but they don’t suffer from too many draws and the German league just looks impossible!

Performance by Home and Away

Both Homes and Aways have been marginally loss making overall. Both types of bets are profitable on the higher combined systems though.

Performance by Home and Away by League

Same idea as the last review where there are a couple of pockets of bets that are highly profitable but the rest are all loss making. Again, given I’m rebuilding from scratch this Summer, no point in trying to draw any conclusions as they won’t be valid for next season.

Performance by Odds

Good luck! 

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