As the title suggests, there are a couple of downloads available for blog readers and subscribers (and also potential subscribers next season). All of my season reviews have been written with me looking at these sheets and analysing these, so instead of looking at the pictures on the blog now, you can now see the tables in Excel.
Season Results by System – This sheet contains the results by system for each season as well as the return on capital figures from last season
Season Results Summary – Contains the results by system for last season and also sets out the targets and betting banks for the upcoming season.
One table I have included within the spreadsheet is the table below. There is a lot of info in here and as I’ve discussed before on the blog, I quite like the idea of being able to rank the systems in some way but there is no easy way. I have 4 rankings shown in the table.
I’ve ranked the systems by the average ROC they have achieved each season. Not a great measure as it is much easier for a system to achieve a high ROC in one season compared to a system that has been live for 3 seasons.
I’ve ranked them by ROI*the number of bets. This measure isn’t great as it puts too much emphasis on bet number I think and not enough emphasis on ROI.
I’ve ranked them by a simple Chisq Test calculation although from my email exchanges with my mathematician follower, I think this is a flawed measure. I've ignored the over-round in the calculation.
Lastly, someone else got in touch and suggested I use a T-distribution to formulate a P-value based on the formulae I’ve used in the sheet. Again, I’m no statistician, so I can’t say for certain how accurate this measure is but from what I can see, it seems to rank the systems in a sensible way although I think it maybe puts too much emphasis on ROI and not enough on bet number! This again ignores the over-round.
I know from various email correspondence that there is no right or wrong way to rank the systems. People look for different things and some would much rather follow a system with a high ROI and lower bet number since it is a big drop in return before a loss is made. Others prefer the lower ROI and higher bet number as they more confidence from the fact the system has shown an edge over so many bets.
When looking at your portfolio of systems to follow next season, I suggest everyone tries to give some thought into what they are looking for next season. It’s easy to say that you want to double the betting bank or achieve a 50% ROC next season but it’s how you plan to get there that matters!
In terms of next steps this Summer, there are 3 major bits of work I need to do before I can turn my attention to helping others prepare for next season.
1). Build the draw ratings and draw systems and share the results on the blog.
2). Finish the value % ratings project I’ve been working on and share the findings on the blog. Will include a download of all live bets and % value ratings.
3). Build the new Euro ratings and Euro systems and share the results on the blog.
Whilst I’m working on these things over the next month or so, the blog will go quiet. I’ll obviously post up the findings of what I’m doing when it is complete but all 3 things above will take 1-2 weeks each. So, don’t expect too many blog posts over the next month or so.
I would suggest that everyone who is following next season start pulling together their own thoughts from the season reviews and have a good idea about what they want to follow next season. Although I’ll contact everyone in due course, I won’t have too much time to chew the fat with everyone this Summer and therefore, it would help me if as many of you do your own work as far as possible. The ideas can be bounced off of me and I can give you my own thoughts but what I don’t want is 40 people writing to me at once in 6 weeks or so saying what should I do next season?
I’ve had a few emails around when the website opens up this Summer for new subscribers. Limited places will be available from 1st July. If you are on the waiting list, you will get first chance to join later this month but thereafter, it’s first come, first served until the service is full for next season. I would suggest anyone who is interested in joining does so at the start of July as I want the service closed as early as possible so I can turn my attention to helping as many of you as possible with advice for next season.