Tuesday, 19 November 2013

Results update for this month so far

Apologies for the lack of results updates on the blog so far this month. Since I completed the monthly review for October, trying to keep up to date with the results has been nearly impossible and I spent a lot of time at the weekend bringing things fully up to date. One issue with having so many rating algorithms and so many systems to track is that Excel doesn’t cope too well with the data due to size limitations and therefore, I have sheets that do the ratings and keep a track of the underlying results for all matches and then I have results sheets that simply track the performance of the systems. I guess the good thing about the way I have this set up is that my lack of time in terms of updating the system results has no impact on my ability to get the next set of ratings generated on each algorithm. What it does mean though is that I spend a lot of time having to input results when I don't keep on top of it!

This update basically covers all games up to the weekend. There are no midweek bets this week, so this will take us up to around the 21st of the month. However, there are still two Saturday’s remaining this month, so a lot of water still needs to flow under the bridge between now and month end. So far though, it has been a good first half of the month.  Profits have been made on all the various sets of systems and it does feel like things have taken a turn for the better.  I’ve been here before this season (a few times!) and therefore, I really don’t know what will happen next but we’ll see what happens.

Est Systems

A profit of 58.44pts from 148 bets so far this month. A really nice return and it’s needed after the start this season. All of the systems have generated a profit although looking at the returns of the higher combined systems, it’s disappointed these are better given the results on systems 6 and 21. Again, the filtering of the systems hasn’t worked anywhere near as well as historically which has been the story of the season so far for the service as a whole.

New Systems

A profit of 42.6pts from 225 bets. Not as good a return as the Est Systems unfortunately but then again, they didn’t dig themselves into the same size of hole before this update as the other systems! I think the weekend past sums up the season to date. 31 and 41 did well, 31-41 did well but all other 5 combined systems lost badly. Hard to take I think for those not following 31-41 but it’s the way the season has gone so far. Trying to filter the bets down has seen the systems remove all the best bets and keep the rubbish.

Misc Systems

A stunning return for these systems and the first time I think I can remember these systems performing like they can this season. A profit of 70.34pts from 124 bets. I know after the last two seasons, many people are relying on these systems in some way or another in a portfolio, so it’s nice to see them perform well. System 6-32 has only made a small profit compared to the other 5 systems but that’s a function of system 32 having a really had time at the moment. Hopefully it improves as the season progresses.

Draw Systems

A solid start to the month for the draw systems to build on the returns from last month. 27.83pts profit from 173 bets. These systems are growing on me just a little and after a shaky start, they are starting to perform well. Interestingly, the higher volume systems have really struggled but I think that’s to do with the underlying trading conditions being very difficult for draws so far this season. As conditions improve, I’m hopeful the higher turnover systems start improving a little.

Euro Systems

These systems have been very impressive so far this month although they are a bit hit and miss. They had one weekend where they hit everything and then followed it up with a weekend where it hit 1 winner from all the bets at high odds. 58.2pts profit from 132 bets.  Early days for these systems as they only started in the middle of October but it has been a solid start to the season this time but last season started OK if I remember correctly.

Under-Over Systems

The black sheet of the TFA family revert to type. A loss of 2.18pts from 21 bets. Turning into another poor month for these systems.

Overall, a profit of 255.23pts from 823 bets. An overall ROI of 31%.

Given the season the systems have had to date, it feels great to be posting these results but as I alluded to a few times above, depending on which systems people are following, the results for subscribers over this period could be quite different.  Overall, the systems are about break-even I think but given a large profit is showing on the Euro and Draw systems (which aren’t popular systems to follow this season), then many (most?) subscribers will still be in the red at the moment.

In terms of a personal point of view, my TFA portfolio of bets is in profit now and given the losses I had at two different times this season, this feels pretty good to be in the black. Obviously, it will feel better if I can stay in profit this time but at the end of the day, I’m back in the game and I’ve suffered two horrendously bad drawdowns this season that has wiped out nearly 50% of my betting bank each time. The fact both drawdowns came so close together is a killer mentally but I feel more positive now I’m in profit again.

Let’s see what the second half of this month brings. Twice this season I’ve got break-even and twice the systems have hit a terrible drawdown almost immediately. Let’s hope we go upwards instead of downwards this weekend. 

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