Tuesday, 7 January 2014

2014 results so far

I say the same every season but I can guarantee at least a few times a season, anyone following these systems will think these are the worst betting systems they have ever seen. I can guarantee you that people have said this about my systems at least once this season already, probably more than this if I’m honest going by some stuff I’ve read. However, I also know that once or twice a season, these systems will do something pretty special as I’ve seen it happen every season. How special can vary I think and I’ve seen these systems do some brilliant things over the years I’ve been following them and I think the run of form to start 2014 has been pretty special again.

Of course, given the start the systems had this season, even after this decent run of form, the season returns still lag way behind where we all hoped they’d be at the halfway stage of the season which is roughly where we are at but when you look at the returns over the last 5-6 weeks or so, my ratings have been on fire.

The only thing I’ve learnt over the last 3-4 seasons is that when you have a really decent run of form with the ratings, the next drawdown isn’t too far away and therefore, I am sort of expecting a correction. Given the poor returns over the season, this will be frustrating for many following but I’ve seen it too many times now to know that we’re definitely going to hit a poor spell soon. How bad it will be, I’ve no idea but let’s keep an eye out for it as I’m sure it’s not too far away!

Anyway, let’s keep this update upbeat and here are the results for 2014 so far.

Est Systems

A profit of 63.49pts from 55 bets at an ROI of 115%. 40 winners from 55 bets and the frustrating thing is that Hibs were a bet on Sunday at nice odds on 3 systems and were 2-0 up with 10 mins left and drew 2-2. Hence, it could and should have been better.

These systems have been disappointing all season and annoyingly, I think we’re having to face up to the fact that systems 7-21 to 8-22 are going to have a nightmare season as when they don’t claw back losses from updates like these, you know they are doomed this season! They didn’t like many of these bets and when you filter out winning bets like this, you aren’t going to do too well I think.

New Systems

A profit of 92.17pts from 110 bets. An ROI of 84%. 67 winners from 110 bets and not quite as impressive as the Est Systems but the difference here is that the combined systems on these systems haven’t been filtering out these winners! The combined systems made 44pts from 39 bets. :)

Misc Systems

A profit of 65.69pts from 50 bets at an ROI of 131%! 36 winners from 50 bets and a really strong performance. Interestingly, systems TOX, STOY and STOZ aren’t keeping pace with the other 3 systems this season and this is like the complete opposite of the last two seasons.

Interestingly, I think the 3 systems TOX, STOY and STOZ are more correlated to the combined systems 7-21 thru to 8-22 than any other systems and therefore, all these systems appear to be struggling this season, albeit the Est Systems are really struggling this season. Definitely something to consider for next season and the future. Not sure you want these systems in the same portfolio.

Draw Systems

A poor start to 2014 for these systems but again, they didn’t have the best of luck. These systems always seem to get fairly close and they did so again here but a late goal ruined it for a few bets. Only 5 winners from 42 bets and a loss of 25.15pts. 

Euro Systems

Not a lot of games here as some of the Euro leagues were on a break but a loss of 0.4pts from 53 bets. No damage done but we need to see a marked improvement in performance in the second half of the season or I don’t think these Euro leagues will be part of the service next season.

Under/Over Systems

I do find it slightly amusing that when my other ratings hit some decent form at long last, these systems fall off the edge of a cliff. Given they have been useless for the last two seasons, not sure I should be surprised at all but I can’t remember too many worse results updates than this over the last few seasons. A loss of 8.9pts from 13 bets. Said it many times before but these won’t be part of the portfolio from next season!

Overall, a profit of 186.9pts from 323 bets.  A great way to start 2014 and a great way to the start the month. However, I’ve been here many times before and seen a few months start like this and end with barely any profit, so a long way to go this month.

I may just be a doom and gloom merchant but I would suspect it’s odds against that the systems make any additional profit over the remainder of this month. Let’s see if I’m right. I hope to be proved wrong!

To put some sort of context around my comments, I’ve made 30% of the money I made in the whole of 2013 in the first 6 days of 2014. :)  

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