Saturday, 13 September 2014

First results update of the 2014/15 season

A strange start to the season and today saw the 3rd round of bets. The first round of bets was very good, the 2nd round of bets saw a wipeout from 4 bets in midweek and then today saw another very poor performance overall with a lack of winners from a decent number of bets.

It’s funny, we’ve had just over 1% of the system bets I expect this season (15k system bets are expected) and yet, the parallels to last season can already be drawn. Est Systems have started very poorly although the combined systems are worse than the ratings themselves which is in line with last season. New Systems have started OK and continue the pattern of looking much better systems than the Est Systems and of course, when other systems are losing, system 31 somehow manages to keep churning out winners and has started the season well so far.

Misc Systems have only had a small number of bets, so hard to draw any conclusions and the Draw systems started like they started last season and have yet to find a winner yet!

Of course, the interesting point for some reading this will be the fact September is now loss making and those wise/foolish (delete as appropriate) people who decided to have no bets in September after seeing that September is loss making historically are probably quite glad of today’s results. Of course, this game is always tight margins and if Welling had held onto a 1-0 lead today or if Alfreton had held on to beat Barnet last week, it might look a little different but so far, I expect those who have kept their powder dry are probably glad they have. Then again, after the first round of bets, they’d have been sweating. :)

A busy midweek coming up and a long way to go in September before we reach month end.

Est Systems

No winners yet on the Est combined systems and system 6-21 has started with 7 losses in a row. System 6 is actually in profit so far, so system 21 has started very badly and is causing the losses on the combined systems. Long-term, system 21 is a better system than 6, so hopefully it will improve soon!

A loss of 28.6pts from 60 bets.

New Systems

A profit here of 18.88pts from 78 bets. A great first weekend, a terrible day today. System 31 has started with 8 winners from 16 which is a solid start.

Misc Systems

7 winners from 26 and a loss of 5.25pts.

Draw Systems

19 system bets, 19 losses. -19pts. Looking at last season, the Draw systems started with 2 winners from 28 bets last season, so 0 from 19 is maybe only a little worse! Due a winner soon. ;)

Overall, the first 183 system bets have yielded a loss of 33.97pts. Not the start I was hoping for this season but we’ve had worse starts!

Last season lost over 250pts in the first month, so we’ve plenty of time left to dig ourselves a much bigger hole this month! 34pts is a drop in the ocean. ;)


  1. Interesting, because with my strategy of picking just unique picks above 3% ( and 1 losing D1-D6 draw) im up almost 20% over 26 bets so far. And you're crushing the Pinnacle closing line on those 26 picks with 5.6%.


  2. Now this may be a little cheeky but I would love it if Martin posted an ongoing tally of his way of following the systems on each update made by TFA. Thanks for posting once again Martin.

  3. Hi Martin.

    Thanks for sharing your results. A nice start for you. Great that you are recording the closing Pinnacle price. With hindsight, I’d have loved to do this for all my bets since day one (might do it one day as a project!) but I know from exchanges with other subscribers and yourself that I tend to beat the closing Pinnace price by 3%-5% on average.

    I was going to ask you (and all other subscribers!) to post up their results in the comments section to the monthly reviews of the systems. Given everyone is doing something different, I think it would be good to do a straw poll at the end of every month to see how people have done in terms of ROI/ROC. Would be good to see a monthly figure and also a YTD figure. It could be done anonymously if people didn’t want to share their name and I’m happy to share my results too. I don’t always have my results updated by the time I blog as I tend to do the service P&L first before my own monthly results but I’d obviously post up my results when I have them.

    Matthew, hopefully a monthly straw poll from Martin and others would do. Like you, I’m keen to see how people are doing and I’ve no issue with everyone seeing it via the blog. People tend to see Steve’s results which IMO don’t always reflect kindly on the service or my work! My issue with weekly result updates is that they can be very volatile and being honest, Martin’s method is only one method involving the unique bets I’ve seen this Summer. There are quite a few methods I’ve seen, with varying degrees of minimum value and we have Tage’s max 4 method of excluding the bets that appear on too many single systems and based on the way the season has started, this will probably be a more profitable way of following the bets than the systems again.

    I’m always keen to know how I’m doing compared to others too, so it will be educational for all of us. :)


  4. Hey guys,

    I have no problem sharing my results here, im doing the administration for myself anyway. Couple of things to consider, although I try to get every unique picks above 3% value I don't place all the picks for a couple of different reasons:

    1: Im a little hestitant with taking odds over 5.00, sometimes I skip them, sometimes I take them with a DNB or if I feel lucky I might just bet them anyhow :-)

    2: I follow a couple of other tippers and my own system, if there's overlap between tips I usually stake a maximum of about 3 points on one pick. So it might happen that I have the pick, but not contribute it to TFA (if he was the last one tipping it).

    3: If I can't get a pick within 2-3% of the advised odds, I usually don't take it.

    Overall I think I Im getting at least 80% of all the unique picks, so it should give a good overview.

    Im probably just posting results on Twitter with a print screen of my excel sheet if that's fine for you guys? Graeme could use it on his blog if he wants to, that's up to him. It will just show an overview of number of picks/ROI and the difference between tip odds/bet odds and tip odds/closing odds.