A tricky weekend again for the ratings and systems. I quoted some stats on Twitter on Sunday evening but with a week left in the month, the month is shaping up to be the toughest month for Away bettors since November 2006. Not exactly the sort of stats I want to be quoting at the end of the first month of the season but the bias towards Homes has been massive thus far. We know it can’t last though and a correction will take place sooner rather than later and when things revert to normal, hopefully my ratings will start picking up profits.
I guess the pleasing thing (if I can say that!) is that the losses are nowhere near as bad as we witnessed last September. Crudely, based on last September’s performance, I would have expected us to be losing much more money than we’re losing now if the ratings were the same as last season! The fact that we are working with refreshed rating algorithms and we’re seeing slightly more Home bets means that we’re not doing as badly as last season.
The proof in the pudding will be what happens when underlying results improve and I’m hopeful that we’ll see increased profits off the back of the refreshed algorithms. If this happens, combined with the fact we haven’t lost as badly as we could have done, I hope we’ll have an OK season!
I must be the only bettor who loses money in the first month of the season and I’m thinking I’m doing great as I could have lost much more. :)
Here’s the weekend results below.
Only 20 winners from 69 bets and a loss of 19.79pts. Losses on all 11 systems I’m afraid and it’s been a tough start to the season (again!) for these systems. Took them a long time to recover from September losses last season, hoping they get into profit before the 2nd last month of the season this time!
A much better strike rate with 46 winners from 106 bets. A profit of 15.10pts. The ratings are struggling a little (31 & 41) but the combined systems had a decent weekend.
18 winners from 52 bets and a loss of 2.28pts.
9 winners from 26 and a profit of 5.77pts. Ratings found some nice winners, systems did great in filtering them out!
Overall, a loss of 1.2pts from 244 system bets.