Monday, 12 November 2012

Catch up of results

I’ve managed to spend a fair bit of time over the weekend updating the results for the various systems over the past week or so. I hate falling behind with the results updating as I really pride myself on being able to track the results closely and in a timely manner as this provides full transparency for the service and the results. Hopefully I won’t fall too far behind again but given the way the last few months has gone, I’ll be amazed if I can keep on top of things like I did for the first couple of seasons. I’ll try my best though!

This results update covers 3 sets of fixtures. It covers last weekend (UK and Euro), midweek (UK only) and then the weekend past (UK and Euro). Hence, there are a lot of bets here and a lot of results to wade through. 

Before I get into the results detail, due to the fact there are no midweek games this week, I’m going to use my midweek to provide a quick review of the season to date. I know I provide daily updates of the results as well as monthly updates but sometimes, it does no harm to stand back and look at the season to date. It hasn’t exactly been plain sailing this season (far from it!) and a lot of the trends that were apparent in the first two seasons with the systems hasn’t been there so far this season and I’m sure that’s causing a little bit of anxiety amongst members of the service. I’m guessing this as it is causing me a little bit of anxiety, so I suspect I’m not alone!

I’ll touch on the these points in the season review to date though and therefore, I’ll stick to just updating the results in this post. Most of you following the systems will be fully aware of some of the trends this season but it does no harm if I point them out to everyone.

So, here’s an update of the recent results.

Established Systems

Another period of moving nowhere for these systems and they are frustrating me just a little. I know it’s better to standstill at times than move backwards but these systems are performing below par compared to the first two seasons. Of course, it is probably just variance and considering some of the bad periods these systems have had historically, this period feels like it’s nothing other than a quiet spell for the systems but it still frustrating at times.

There have been 186 bets and a loss of 0.31pts has been made. No damage done thankfully but then again, no headway has been made either. You can see that the AH returns are slightly better than the outright returns and again, this is frustrating to see. Quite clearly, the systems are hitting too many draws at the moment.

Overall, a lot of bets to move nowhere again and hopefully things pick up in the second half of this month.

New Systems

If the Established systems are frustrating me at the moment, then the New systems are continuing to surprise me! Another decent start to the month for these systems and a profit of 51.7pts from 243 bets. Amazingly, the AH returns drop off a cliff and quite simply, these New systems are hitting plenty of winners and losers which of course, is good news if following outright but not so good if using some form of draw coverage.

Considering that there are a great amount of selections that are appearing on both the Est systems and the New systems, it is amazing that the results over a couple of hundred of bets could be so different. The games that the New Systems are selecting that the Est Systems aren’t selecting are clearly doing very well which is frustrating for me and most of you guys following I suspect.

Given the returns last season for the New systems were so poor in backtesting compared to the live results of the Established systems, you have to believe that the Est systems are suffering from adverse variance whereas the New systems are experience positive variance.  Likewise, you can probably draw the conclusion the New systems were very unlucky last season to only break-even I suspect and we are now seeing a better indication of these systems.

My only worry though is that when the Est systems struggle, it is usually the case that there are too many draws which means that the AH returns get better and the outright returns get worse but these New systems seem to either be hitting winners or losers. Hence, more draws would reduce the outright returns and not really improve the AH returns too much, so it does appear to me that the New systems are maybe getting a little bit of luck on their side at the moment. We’ll see what happens over the remainder of the season but I’m not fully convinced by the New systems as yet.

Misc Systems

Although I’m pleased that these systems have generated a decent return since the last update, it makes the results from the Est Systems even more frustrating to me. We know that these Misc systems are nowhere near as good as the Est systems and it is very rare for these systems to have a better return than the Est Systems over any period of results. This season, some of these Misc systems are doing better than some of the Est combined systems and that is unheard of. In addition, all of these Misc systems use the Est systems to generate the bets on these systems, so the fact the Misc systems are doing better than the Est systems has to be down to variance and good luck!

Anyway, a profit of 24.83pts from 155 bets on these systems. A solid start to the month but these systems always tend to be a bit of boom and bust in my eyes, so I wouldn’t bank on these profits continuing at this rate! Likely to get better or worse if experience is anything to go by.

Under/Over Systems

I’d even go as far to say that it is rubbing salt into the wounds that these systems have actually created a profit this month so far.  A profit of 3.86pts from 30 bets this month is a nice steady return but considering the mess these systems usually make, it is amazing!  Similar to the Misc Systems, I wouldn’t expect these profits to continue if historical experience is anything to go by but we’ll see what happens.

Euro Systems

Well, if the Est Systems were frustrating, the Euro systems have me tearing my hair out (and I don’t have too much left these days!). At a high level, a loss of 6.7pts from 197 bets isn’t a disaster but when you see where the losses and profits are being made, it is sooooo annoying! Basically, all of the profits are coming from the high odds winners who only tend to appear on E1 and E6 (and hence E1-E6) but as you start filtering out the bets to get the stronger bets, things are going badly wrong. The weekend past had 3 very high value home bets. All 3 teams dominated, all 3 teams couldn’t score in a brothel and all 3 games finished 0-0.

Using draw coverage is all fine and well on Aways but for Home bets, you can’t really use any draw coverage and therefore, draws are a nightmare for these systems. I dread to think how many draws these systems have had this season (a crazy amount!)

For example, system E3-E7 has had 10 bets this season. Bear in mind this is the strongest bets these Euro systems have. 10 bets, 3 winners, 6 draws and 1 loser. A nightmare really and when you are hitting 60% draws, you have no chance of making profits (unless you are backing the draw I guess!)

I said before the season started that I was wary of draws on the Euro systems as historically during backtesting, draws have caused some issues with profitability over spells of bets and this season has been no different. Again, backtesting would indicate that nothing outside the norm has happened (well, aside from 60% draws on the best system) and hopefully things revert back to the long-term soon but with a new set of systems, it does worry me a little bit when you see a period like this so early on.

The strike rate on the high value bets is terrible, the strike rate on the weaker bets (especially the high odds teams) is amazing and therefore, you have to assume this is variance causing this. Either that or we should just be backing these big priced Euro aways at 5/1+ as these are creating all the profits so far!

Overall then, since the last update, a profit of 73.38pts from 811 bets. If anyone has made any profit at all since the last update, they have clearly been following the wrong systems this season based on the historical experience! I’ve managed to give back a good chunk of my profits for the season to date and I’m looking forward to when the positive variance starts coming my way as I could do with some good fortune……..

Next post will be a review of the season to date.

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