Sunday, 25 November 2012

Last Weekend & Midweek

This is an update from last weekend and the midweek games. I’m a little bit behind with the results updating as has become the norm. Been another frustrating weekend this weekend and if the Euro systems keep hitting the number of draws they are hitting, I’m going to be breaking records I suspect as the draw % on these systems is unbelievable at the moment but it will hopefully settle down soon!

Anyway, I’ll update this weekend and the midweek coming up later this week as well as try to do the monthly report for November. Should be an interesting read as it has been anything but plain sailing again this month but if this game was easy as my systems make it look at times, everyone would be doing it!

Established Systems

A profit of 2.98pts from 148 bets but it was a poor Saturday, a great Sunday and then a good midweek that has created this small profit. It continues to be a very frustrating time for the higher combined systems with 7-22 and 8-22 again creating losses. I know it’s only variance as these systems are the best systems I have seen over the first 2 seasons but this season, they aren’t clicking at all. They’ll keep plugging away and hopefully they’ll hit the sort of spell we’ve been accustomed to over the first couple of seasons but at the moment, they are making the game seem difficult!

New Systems

A profit of 0.37pts from 187 bets. The same trend as the Est systems and a decent midweek has helped them break-even on the week. These systems continue to impress and although it’s still early days, they continue to look more impressive than the Est systems this season. Hopefully the balance swings the other way soon but we’ll see what happens.

Misc Systems

A remarkable performance for these systems and a profit of 38.43pts from 116 bets. These systems are really coming into their own this season (about fuc*ing time!) and for me personally, a few of these systems are holding up my portfolio returns this season. I always had a lot of blind faith in the SGM systems since they went live and although they have generally disappointed me, I have continued to follow them in the hope they couldn’t do any worse than last season and so far, they have done well this season. They aren’t as flashy as most of the other systems but they have a real solid look about them and seem to be fairly consistent this season.

Under/Over Systems

I’ve not got a clue what’s going on with these systems all of a sudden but they have suddenly started performing well! 6 from 7 correct since the last update to turn around the month and amazingly, the overall system is in profit this season! Don’t ask me how it has happened as I’ve no idea but a profit is not to be sniffed at when you see the mess my other systems are making at times.  5.51pts profit from 7 bets.

Euro Systems

I’m running out of words to describe these systems and the draws they are hitting. I can only point to the results again. A loss of 20.4pts from 123 bets but a profit of 11.7pts if using AH0.5. I’ve said this lots of times since I started running my football systems but the draw is the enemy. If you are hitting lots and lots of draws, you’ve no chance of making profits and this is happening with these bets this season.

I’ll run it through at the end of the month if I can find the time but some of these systems must have an amazing ROI from backing the draw.  It is very frustrating and although the results now look shambolic for backing outright, I think the systems are closer than it appears. However, they’re judged on the results and unfortunately, they have been a bitter disappointment since going live.

The higher value bets are underperforming dramatically so far and this is pulling down the results of the higher combined systems enormously. 

The only thing that’s keeping my hopes alive with these systems is the base ratings are profitable and therefore, it shows they’re not far off. They just can’t narrow the bets down at all and ultimately, although the higher systems are picking teams from a winning pool of bets, they keep selecting the wrong bloody teams!

It’s still early days this season and these bets will have a lot more action post Christmas where the majority of bets are but after 15% of the bets I expect this season, let’s hope the next 85% of bets are a bit better.

(Unfortunately, I can tell you that this weekend has been badly impacted by the draw again. I make it 17 draws from 30 bets on E1-E7 to E3-E8 with some games to come. Unbelievable strike rate again and I dread to think the profit from backing draws on some of these system this season. )

Overall, a profit of 26.89pts from 581 bets. Considering how tough going it is at the moment, it’s pleasing to see the systems grind out any sort of profit but again, the systems I’d like to see generating the profits aren’t doing it. The profits this time are on the Misc Systems and Under/Over systems and these were the poorest performing systems last season, so it just shows why keeping a long-term view at this game are important.

I’ll be back later this week with the weekend and midweek update. At a high level, it has been small loss on the Est Systems, a small profit on the New Systems, a small loss on the Misc Systems and a small profit on the Under/Over sytems. The Euro systems are in the balance with a couple of games to come tomorrow night and one on Tuesday, so we’ll see what happens.


  1. Draws are killing the Euro systems.

  2. Yes, cheers for the very insightful comment anonymous. :(

    I’ve sort of been saying that in nearly every post this season with the Euro systems results, so it’s nice to know you’ve been paying attention.

    It’s still early days. The higher combined systems have had very few teams who have actually lost their games and it is simply draws that are causing the losses. We’ll see what happens over the next few months