Saturday, 10 November 2012

October 2012 Monthly Review

As the title suggests, this is the monthly report for October 2012. I’ll cover all 5 sets of systems in this review of the month. I did say a few weeks back that I would have liked to do a separate post for each set of systems but lack of time means this isn’t an option.

Established Systems

At a high level, the profit of 12.7pts from 410 bets generated a return of 3.1% on the month. The combined systems made a profit of 4.6pts from 157 bets for an ROI of 3.0%.  Hence, it wasn’t a disaster but it wasn’t the most pleasing month.

I’ll start with the positives. It is the 10th straight month of profits for the combined systems and it is the 17th profitable month from 20 months of live results. Based on these two facts alone, I can’t be too disappointed that the systems haven’t exactly set the world alight this month. When things don’t go well, to generate any sort of profit is an achievement and in that sense, I’m not too downbeat about the month.

However, when you look at the results by system, it is very frustrating this month.

Firstly, algorithm two has had a storming month. System 21 generated a profit of 16.3pts from 71 bets and system 22 has generated a profit of 6.2pts from 27 bets. Both these results generated a return of 23% on the month and therefore, a really good performance from algorithm two this month.

The issue in the month lies with algorithm one though. System 6 generated a profit of 2.2pts from 101 bets which if I’m honest, isn’t a disaster. Usually, when system 6 has a month like this, systems 7 and 8 will take the bets, weed out the worst performing bets and we end up with systems 7 and 8 having a good month.

System 7 managed to take the 101 bets from system 6, find the 35 strong bets and turn a 2.1% profit into a 32.5% loss. Ouch!

To only hit 8 winners from 36 bets on system 7 is very poor and a loss of 11.7pts. It is the 2nd worst month that system 7 has had since it went live which shows how bad the month was.

System 8 didn’t really have much chance after the mess system 7 made of things and system 8 made a loss of 5pts from 18 bets.  This was the 3rd worst month that system 8 has had since it went live.

Based on what I’ve said regarding system 7 and system 8, it is actually quite astonishing that the combined systems managed to make any profit on the month!

When you analyse the results though, you can see that all the profits were generated from 6-21 and 6-22 which makes sense. If 7 and 8 were doing their best to pick losers, then 7-21 to 8-22 didn’t have much chance of a profit at all and it shows in the results.

7-21 to 8-22 only hit 18 winners from 69 bets and therefore, a loss had to be made. The fact it was only a loss of 12pts is a bit of an achievement when you think how bad systems 7 and 8 were this month!

Thankfully, 6-21 and 6-22 bailed out the combined systems this month and when you add all 6 systems up, another profit was made for these systems.

New Systems

Interestingly, many of the same trends that were apparent with the first two rating algorithms are apparent with these DNB ratings for this month. At a high level, a profit of 9.9pts from 562 bets to generate an ROI of 1.8% across all systems.  The combined systems didn’t have as much luck though and it was a loss of 6.9pts from 210 bets this month.

Given the first month these systems had this season, this month hasn’t been a disaster and at one point, I thought the systems were going to give most of the profits away they made in September but they ended the month well and to achieve any sort of profit on the month is quite pleasing I think.

The base ratings did their job well and systems 31 and 41 both had good months. A profit of 7.5% on algorithm 3 and a profit of 13.6% on algorithm 4. However, trying to narrow down these bets was quite difficult and interestingly, even when 31 and 41 agreed on the bets, they didn’t agree on the winners as often as I’d like!

System 32 did the same sort of thing as system 7 and managed to take a winning set of ratings and pick out too many losers to create a loss on the month. System 32 only hit 7 winners from 37 bets which is poor considering it was picking from a sample which had 30 winners from 93 bets!

Interestingly, system 33 did an amazing job and taking the 7 winners from 37 bets, the system picked out 16 bets and hit 5 winners! Hence, the 21 bets that dropped off system 32 before making it to system 33 only contained 2 winners. Makes me smile seeing stuff like this as this shows that even though not a lot went right this month, it wasn’t all bad.

System 42 did even worse. System 41 had a profit of 13.6% and yet, system 42 turned this into a loss of 1.5% when narrowing down the bets.

The combined systems were a bit all over the place and 3 of them made profits and 3 of them made losses. Overall though, a loss was achieved.

Summing up, not the greatest month for these systems but after the fireworks in September, a steady month is no disaster. The overall ROI for the season to date is still amazing on these systems but as I keep saying, it’s too early to draw any conclusions. So far, so good though.

Misc Systems

A bit of a nothing month for these systems if I’m honest. A profit of 5.9pts from 249 bets just about sums up the month. 4 systems made small profits, 2 systems made small losses.

If I’m being positive, it at least consolidates the profits from September and they’ve not done any damage during a tricky month for the systems in general but the more I see these systems, the more they disappoint me.

Interestingly, two months into the season and the ROI across these systems is nearly identical to the ROI these systems achieved last season. These systems won’t damage your P&L I suspect in the long-run but then again, they won’t make you a fortune either.

Anyway, an OK month and we move onto November to see what these systems do next.

Under/Over Systems

I’m fed up moaning about these systems. I don’t regret too much with the my football modelling but trying to build systems for this market is one regret I do have I think!

Another small losing month and I can’t help but feel the systems are just going to end up making small profits/losses every month as I don’t believe they have an edge. Maybe they do and it’s simply the fact I don’t like betting on these markets myself that is clouding my judgement but I just feel like it’s like betting on a toss of a coin every game and with the high overround in this market in the low leagues, the systems would need a big edge to show any form of profit in the long-run.

Anyway, the results show a small loss of 3.1pts from 41 bets this month. The systems are running at an ROI of only 4.2% now since they went live last season and compared to the other systems I’m running, these systems are the black sheep of the family.

I’ll keep going with them until the end of the season to see how the fare in the longer term but as time goes by, my confidence in the systems diminish!

Euro Systems

Well, the first month of live results for these systems and at a high level, a small profit was achieved.  Given the systems started with days of -11pts, -21pts, -5pts, -8.3pts, +3.1pts and -13pts, it seems like it’s been a great month to actually end up with any profit at all!

A profit of 15.1pts from 178 bets is a solid start but a quick look at the AH returns shows why it has been a tricky first month for these systems. I was fully aware before the season started that the draw is likely to be a pest on these systems and that has been the case this month. Even so, I can’t complain too much about the month’s profits.

The combined systems started with 2.6pts profit from 73 bets which again, is no great profit but then again, it beats a loss.

It’s too early to draw any conclusions from these systems as they only have one month of live results behind them but it’s been a solid enough start.

Overall then, I think that summarises the month of October. If September was a great a start to the season, then October has been a month of consolidation with probably a little bit of the profit given back from the gains made in September but it hasn’t been a disastrous month by any means.

Let’s see what November brings…….

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