Monday, 14 January 2013

An interesting strategy?

This week, I’m hoping to get some time to pull together a few pieces of analysis that a couple of my subscribers have asked for. I mentioned the 3 pieces of analysis in the email tonight but the first piece is actually much more interesting than I thought it would be!

For a recent blog post, a subscriber had asked me to look at what had happened if you simply staked 1pt on every UK or Euro bet that appeared this season. I looked at it for this season and being honest, I didn’t think it looked that good. The guy clearly saw some potential though and asked me to look at the results going back in time so he could get an idea of the drawdowns and the historical results from the previous live results and from backtesting.

I’ve spent an hour playing with the data tonight and now I’m done, I think the results are actually better than I thought they would be.  I should state that these results are bang up to date and include the weekend past even though these results are not on the blog as yet.

Here’s the UK results first:

As you can see, quite an interesting P&L graph and quite interesting results I think.   Clearly, you need to be careful here as we are looking at a mixture of live and backtested results but the results from this season are obviously 100% live.

I think if you look at the P&L graph, the thing that strikes me is how steady the profit line is. There aren’t too many ups and downs and this is reflected in the drawdown graph.  The max drawdown of 34pts has been hit twice historically but 34pts isn’t too bad for a drawdown.  If we apply a simple multiplier here, we would probably be looking at a bank of around 75pts to follow this method.

If you look at the annual P&L, you’re ROC looks pretty decent each season and even this season, with it being far from a vintage season, you’d be sitting on a profit of 44.8pts. Not bad considering we’re not quite at the halfway stage of the season and if the second half of the season followed the first half, you’d easily achieve a 100% ROC again this season.

One stat that jumps off the page for me is the fact that Homes are losing this season which isn’t that surprising given I know how hard it has been for Home bets this season but if you look at the away bets, the results are stunning this season. A 19.5% ROI is a fair bit in front of the long-term results and therefore, I’d be worried that this has probably peaked this season already!

Overall, some very interesting results and although it’s quite a high turnover system if you choose to follow this idea, the results look very decent.

I would imagine that getting the prices on the bets would be fairly easy generally as any bet that only appears on one system or on a few systems isn’t going to be followed by 90% of the subscribers (nor me!), so it may well be the case that these odds could be beaten long-term.

How do the Euro bets look?

Just looking at the results, I think we need to be really careful here. We only have this season’s live results to go on and therefore, I’d definitely put less weight on the Euro results compared to the UK results. In addition, we only have 2 Euro algorithms as against 4 UK algorithms, so I suspect that long-term, the results may not be as good.

The results look a lot more variable with the Euro bets and there has been a much larger drawdown of 50pts once which again tempers my enthusiasm but I think the biggest issue here is that we just don’t have enough live bets.

246 bets this season isn’t a lot and an ROI of 7.9% is decent enough but I think we need to see more bets. I’ll update this analysis at the season end if someone reminds me to during the Summer.  Will be interesting to see how the second half of the season pans out.

I think this post answers this questions the subscriber asked me to look at during the week. If there is anything else, please get in touch. 

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