Sunday, 20 January 2013

Two steps forward, two steps back.......

Well, I’d love to say things have improved since my last post which was a bit of a rant but unfortunately, things haven’t changed. If I’m honest, I’m even more frustrated writing this post than I was writing the last post.

Last weekend ended up being one of the best weekends of the season and the P&L got a massive boost. As has happened a few times this season, the systems have followed up a good set of fixtures with an absolute shocker of a weekend this weekend. At times, it’s hard to believe it’s the same fuc*ing ratings from one week to the next. Seriously, how they can get so many games right one weekend and then absolutely nothing right the next weekend is unbelievable.

So, this update covers the last two weekends in total. Overall, it doesn’t look too bad but if you study the P&L by day, you’ll see that it’s a massive profit last weekend and a massive loss this weekend. Very frustrating but I’m not surprised in the slightest. Sums up this season so far….rubbish.

Established Systems

A profit of 14.99pts from 165 bets. Considering a profit of over 58pts was made in one day last Saturday, it’s frustrating to only have a near 15pt profit. Then again, if the weekends had been reversed, I’d be jumping for joy about posting a 15pt profit, so I need to keep it in perspective I suspect.

As you can see, the AH returns for AH0.25 and AH0.50 are better than the outright returns. The systems haven’t had the best time of it with draws and this is frustrating also. When the systems are struggling as they have been, hitting too many draws doesn’t help the P&L either.

Overall, a profit is at least a step forward for these systems but the way they’ve lost all the profits this weekend after a good weekend last weekend is annoying.

New Systems

A profit of 8.29pts from 170 bets. A very similar story to the Est Systems and if you look at the AH returns, all of the AH returns are better than outright betting. This again points to too many draws which is definitely something we’ve seen the last two weekends on these systems.

I think the big difference between the Est Systems and the New Systems this season is that the New Systems just have done a lot better at dodging the really bad days. They’ve had lots of really good days (more good days than the Est Systems!) but the systems do seem to dodge the really bad days which helps to keep the P&L moving upwards generally.

Similar story to the first set of systems but only posting a small profit is frustrating after last weekend’s performance.

Misc Systems

A profit of 8.89pts from 104 bets.  The AH returns here really stand out and clearly, the systems have struggled a fair bit from too many draws since the last update.

I think the story of these systems since the last update can be analysed by Home and Away bets. I follow these Home bets with decent sized stakes based on historical performance and I know that they have had a great spell in the last two weeks.

Here is a quick update to show the performance split by Home/Away:

A very good profit for the Homes and clearly, the Aways have struggled with too many draws.  Frustrating stuff again but similar comments to above, a profit is a profit I guess.

Under/Over Systems

A small profit of 2.27pts from 15 bets since the last update. Not surprisingly, the Overs have made all the profits and this fits in with what we’ve seen so far this season.   Again, a profit is a profit I guess!

Euro Systems

I think these systems sum up this update pretty well. A loss of 29.2pts from 224 bets. However, this doesn’t tell the story at all I think and it was a profit of 9.1pts if using AH0.5. Clearly, far too many draws on these systems (again!) and if you look at the profit last weekend of 33pts profit on the Friday evening, it’s hard to believe I’m posting a fairly big loss on these systems!

I could pick out a couple of games this weekend where we were on big prices and both teams managed draws but unfortunately, when backing outright, you don’t get anything for draws!


For this update then, I make it a profit of 5.24pts from 678 bets. If I tell you that the profit was well in excess of 100pts last weekend, that probably sums up my frustration at the moment.  Two steps forward, two steps back.

It really is turning out to be one of these seasons……. 

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