Monday, 17 March 2014

Worst Results Update Ever?

In the 4 years I’ve had the blog, there have been various results updates whereby the systems have suffered large losses but I honestly can’t remember too many updates as bad as this one. When you put this comment together with the context that this season has been the toughest season to date for the systems and you can understand how shi* I’m feeling at the moment.

It’s hard to put into words how frustrating and annoying the last week has been. The systems started the month OK and managed to make some early gains off the back of a good end to last month but the last week and a bit has been torture. Two weekends ago was painful, the midweek was painful and then the weekend just past was something like Armageddon.  Put all this together and what you have is a results update that isn’t going to make pretty reading.

The scary thing about March is that we’re only halfway through the month! This month has the potential to be the biggest losing month any set of systems has ever experienced I suspect. I’m not looking forward to this if it happens! On the other hand, the systems could dig themselves out the shi* and clawback some losses but given the way this season has going and the number of disappointments I’ve had, I wouldn’t be surprised if the systems set some unwanted records this month.

Anyway, here’s goes.

Est Systems

A loss of 38.03pts from 142 bets. Only 37 winners from 142 bets.  The draw had a massive impact on these systems with a profit of 25.4pts from AH0.5 betting.

The month started OK but the weekend past saw 6 winners from 63 bets. Hopeless!

New Systems

Wow! A loss of 97.73pts from 267 bets. Only 64 winners from 267 bets. Amazingly, AH0.5 had a profit of 32.71pts. A swing of 130pts if dutching the draw and the selection rather than backing the selection! Shows where the issue has been.

Misc Systems

A loss of 61.71pts from 115 bets.  Only 20 winners from 115 bets. Same story as the other systems really. AH0.5 made a profit of 17.81pts. Don’t you just love draws! :(

Draw Systems

Well, I said it above. Don’t you just love Draws! A profit of 101pts from 257 bets. I’ve very rarely had a set of systems win 100pts in an update but given what has happened to the other systems above, you can maybe see why the Draw systems have had such a good time! It was difficult to lose.

106 winners from 257 bets is unreal for a set of Draw systems and these systems have far exceeded any expectations I had for them this season. Unfortunately, most of my other systems haven’t come anywhere near expectations I had for them this season!

Euro Systems

These systems have dropped off a cliff for the second season running! It is like Déjà vu when you look at the P&L for last season and this season.

A loss of 92.4pts from 312 bets. The systems are slightly worse than break-even for the season now which is probably a fair reflection of their performance this season.

Even after a poor performance so far this month, backing the selections to Draw this season has created more profit than backing the selections to win!  Two seasons running this has been the case. I’ll draw any conclusions at the season end as usual but at the moment, it’s clear my ratings methodology can’t find an edge in these 4 Euro leagues if backing outright.

Under-Over Systems

A profit of 1.53pts from 5 games.

Overall, a loss of 187.34pts from 1,098 bets. A -17% ROI.

As I said in the intro, I can’t recall too many updates as bad as this but given the way this season has gone, maybe I shouldn’t be too surprised.

The rollercoaster this season is hard to take tbh. I reached a new peak for my own portfolio P&L on 1st March and my previous peak was 4th of January. Since the 1st of March, I have had one winning day and I’m in the midst of another substantial drawdown. This will be my 4th large drawdown this season! Every drawdown (apart from the first one where I had no profit!) has started as soon as a new peak in my P&L has been reached after the previous drawdown. I guess the question is….Do I have enough time left this season to reach a new peak? Not sure. Given how quickly the drawdowns seem to start after reaching a new peak, not sure I’m looking forward to the next peak anyway! 

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