Saturday, 1 March 2014

February 2014 Monthly Review

Going to try to keep this review a little shorter than last month which shouldn’t be too difficult. ;)

It felt like it has been a very long month even though it’s the shortest month of the season. I think the feeling comes from the fact the last 3 weeks of January were torture and the first few weeks this month felt just as bad and therefore, it has been a really tough time mentally again. However, things turned in the last week of the month and now I’ve reached the end of the month, it feels like a bit of a relief to have had a decent month.

Looking at the results over the last few months together now, apart from the first two months this season, the last 4 months have been very solid and therefore, the systems have steadied the ship after the nightmare start this season. I expect we’ll all view the first few weeks of bets for the season differently after what happened this season but we can deal with this in the Summer.

Here’s the monthly review.

Est Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm one:

A return of 6.5pts from 66 bets. An ROI of 9.9%. A really solid month for this algorithm. Aways made 6.9pts whereas Homes made a small loss.

The results by value bands are interesting. For the Aways, the higher bands did well as usual and there was another fairly large loss in the lowest band. The Homes showed the complete opposite with all the profits in the low value bands with losses in the larger bands.

The results for algorithm two:

A return of 4.5pts from 41 bets. An ROI of 11%. Similar comments to the first algorithm and a solid profit this month. Aways did really well and made 7.2pts whereas Homes lost 2.7pts.

The low value Away bets again lost month although the 5%-10% band seemed to do really well. As always, hard to draw conclusions from very small samples and I did a detailed post on the value bands recently. I’ll update the value bands performance at the end of the season.

Here’s the results of the Est Systems for this month:

A solid month this month for these systems and a large chunk of the losses recouped. Not enough profit to wipe out the season losses but another month like this and these systems could be in profit this season. That would be some achievement considering the first 2 months of losses!

A profit of 44.6pts from 225 bets. An ROI of 19.8%.

10 of the 11 systems made a profit. Not surprised to see that system 8-22 was the system that made a loss. The system has struggled all season and therefore, this trend continues even in a month when all other systems made a profit.

The filtering worked fairly well this month which is a change compared to most of the season. 8-22 is the only system whereby the filtering didn’t work.

The combined systems also had a decent month and that makes a change too.

Overall, a good month and a month that has been long overdue. How I’d like to see another good month next season and for these systems to get back to break-even but I’m just glad they have taken a step forward after the season they have had so far!

New Systems

Here’s the results from algorithm 3:

A stunning month for algorithm three after a disappointing losing month last month. A profit of 24.3pts from 82 bets. Homes made 13.4pts with Aways making 11pts. The best month for this algorithm since Mar-13.

The low value away bets had a very bad month but the other away bets did well. The Homes did well in the highest band with 1 winner from 3 but as always, difficult to draw conclusions from the sample sizes.

Algorithm 4 results:           

A great month for this algorithm too with a profit of 11.9pts from 100 bets. Homes made 6.1pts from only 34 bets and Aways made 5.8pts from 66 bets.

We can see the issue this algorithm had with the low value away bets and a loss of 12.6pts from 33 bets. Again, everything continues to point to these low value bets (<5%) pulling down the returns of the algorithms and the systems and it has been this way for most of the season. Opposite picture on the Homes though where the low value bets did well.

Here’s the results for the New Systems this month:

I’ll start with the positives!

A profit of 80.7pts from 415 bets with an ROI of 19.4%. A really good month and not far off the 100pt profit month that these systems seem to regularly manage to achieve.

The filtering worked well on algorithm 4 whereby system 42 improved on system 41 but it has gone really badly wrong on algorithm 3.

System 31 did amazingly well but system 32 didn’t do quite as well. However, the real issue lies with system 33 and it has taken the bets on system 32 and filtered out the winners mainly. 8 bets on system 33 and a loss of 3.1pts.

This impacted the combined systems with 33-41 and 33-42 having a losing month which is very disappointing. Again, I’m not totally surprised as these systems have struggled all season and when a month like this occurs and these 2 systems lose money, you know they are not going to have a good season!

The positive has to be the returns on system 31-42 as I know it’s a very popular system and it has struggled most of the season but it has finally taken a step forward this month.

Overall, a really good month for these systems although if system 33-41 and system 33-42 had done better, the systems would have easily smashed the 100pts+ profit mark this month.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for this month:

At an overall level, a profit of 20.7pts from 188 bets would have to go down as a decent month. 5 of the 6 systems in profit and therefore, it’s hard to be too critical.

However, going into this season, system STOZ was probably the system I was most confident about after the last two seasons but for whatever reason, this system is really, really struggling! No surprise to see it make a loss this month when the other 5 systems had much better months, it’s been this way all season.

I think the other disappointing thing with these systems in total this month is that the Home bets made a loss again. Again, going into this season, the Home bets on TOX, STOY and STOZ were without a doubt my strongest home bets but this season, they just haven’t clicked on these systems at all.

I keep saying it every month but this season looks nothing like previous seasons and many of the trends coming into this season haven’t been mirrored this season.

Overall, a good month but not a spectacular month but it helps to build on the profits over the last few months.

Draw Systems

I’m starting to love these systems!  Here’s the results for this month:

Only thing I can say I think is WOW! 86.8pts profit from 307 bets. An ROI of 28.3%.

The power of the combined systems can be seen this month. System D6 was basically break-even but the combined systems benefited from being cross referred with system D1. If I was being critical, it’s slightly annoying that the highest two combined systems filtered out all the profits but as always, with these very small sample sizes for the higher combined systems, anything can happen I suspect.

Apart from the blip in the first month of the season (and to be fair, they were unlucky with late goals), these systems have made good profits consistently and a few of these combined systems must be in the running for TFA system of the season. Long way to go and we’ll see what the next few months bring but my confidence in these systems have grown almost every week since the end of the first month and it’s not unrealistic to think that going into next season, I may have more confidence in the draw systems than any other systems! Didn’t think I’d be saying that 12 months ago.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results this month:

Another solid month for these systems with a profit of 22.2pts from 249 bets. An ROI of 8.9%.

Interestingly, E3 seemed to be very selective this month and this had a knock-on effect on E3-E6 and E3-E7. However, E3 did hit 2 winners from 3 and therefore, I can’t really complain.

I keep the saying the same every month but it’s difficult to draw conclusions with these Euro bets as there is so much of the season to go for these bets compared to the UK bets and therefore, I don’t want to jump to the conclusion that I have developed some ratings that work in the Euro leagues until we see many more bets. In addition, I was burnt last season from thinking I may have got something to work in these leagues, so things can turn quickly.

So far, 5 months of results, 4 months of profits and my confidence builds very slowly in these systems but happy to get to the end of the season and try to see what the results look like.

Under-Over Systems

Here’s the results:

An absolute nothing month really. Break-even from 26 bets. Based on this season so far, that’s a good result for these systems!


A profit of 255pts from 1,410 bets. An ROI of 18.1%.

A badly needed month if I’m honest and this month helps to bring an air of respectability to the results of the service this season.  I’ll need a few more months like this for this season to be anything other than disappointing for me personally but seeing so many systems in profit now and seeing the overall system results gives me a little bit of satisfaction. Of course, I would have wished for the profits to be spread more evenly across systems and seeing the draw systems do quite as well as this in their debut season is slightly frustrating but thinking longer-term, these systems are going to be a useful addition to my portfolio of systems which is what I hoped when I set out developing the draw systems.

We’re now 2/3 of the way through the season now. The first third was very disappointing and largely unprofitable; the second third has been much better and has been very profitable. The last third will determine how this season is remembered……


  1. Being a new member of TFA this year it was quite a shock in the first few months this season. TFA had had such a great results for 3 seasons before I joined, but now I quickly lost 2/3 of my 150 point bank following 21 systems. I never lost faith in the systems though, as I know variance will play a big part in such a short period, and now about 2/3 into the season the results are looking very good, turning the historic bad start into a good overall profit for the season already. For me, following 21 systems I now have a 90 points profit and a bank increase of 60% with a 104,85% ROI figure. My personal goal for the season setting up my systems was a 100% bank increase with a possibility for as much as a 200% increase. Graeme talked early on in the season after the terrible start, about getting a break even for the season would be great. Now it looks like my original goals may well be within reach. For me I am as confident as ever in the TFA systems. I know things can turn quickly though, both for the good and the worse, but I have to say it, you are doing a great job with the systems Graeme!

    In my first season with TFA I have learned that there are a lot of ways to play around with the TFA systems, which systems to choose and especially how to stake your choosed systems. Always great to hear others view and experience, and healthy discussions can only do good. Graeme is also always giving very good insights whenever he is asked a question, and I look forward to learn even more about TFA and to build myself an even better portfolio for the next season with a good staking plan.

    Best regards,

  2. Hi Vidar.

    Thanks again for the comment. I think you raise a very valid point and it’s one that seems to be a recurring theme with TFA and it’s that you need to believe in the systems and their profitability long-term if you are going to make money at this game following these systems.

    As you know, I lost a small number of members after the first month this season and some people were very quick to raise concerns that the systems had lost their edge overnight and that the results for the last 3 seasons and 27 months didn’t mean anything as the 28th month was very unprofitable and therefore, the systems were now hopeless.

    I kept saying that anything can happen in the short-term (all I could say really!) but if you look longer-term, it was unlikely that the UK systems had suddenly become unprofitable as they had so many proofed bets where they appeared to show an edge.

    I exchanged emails with someone the other day who was saying something similar and I think the conclusion we came to was the same conclusion I come to every time I discuss tipsters and systems. People should only follow a system or a tipster if they believe they have an edge and can make a profit long-term. Short-term results don’t really matter if you believe in what you are following.

    My issue and the issue many tipsters face (and by tipsters, I mean those who have a proven edge and not the thousands on the net or on Twitter!) is that people get attracted to the service or the systems as they see the results others have and the results the systems have and think it’s a case of joining the service, sitting back and watching the money roll in. It’s never that easy!

    The fact so many jumped ship so early on this season shocked me a little as I couldn’t believe someone would join a successful service and then leave after 6 weeks of bets but it shows how fickle some punters are. I can guarantee those that joined and left the service are unlikely to be winners long-term as anyone with that attitude is unlikely to win long-term when betting.

    As always, no one knows what the next few months hold and although many will be in profit now (some won’t be), I think this season has taught me that a season is probably not as long as I used to think and therefore, anything can probably happen over a season. I’ll need to adjust my expectations a little and I’ll probably stop trying to see each season as a new beginning for my betting portfolio and more a continuation of the previous season. Easier said than done considering I tend to change strategy, staking plan and betting bank each Summer!

    Cheers for the comment.


  3. Hey Graeme,

    Ages since I made a comment on here. Too long!

    There's one sentence you've written in reply to Vidar that really stood out to me and which makes an incredibly relevant point, very succinctly: "I’ll probably stop trying to see each season as a new beginning for my betting portfolio and more a continuation of the previous season."

    This is a concept that I've only truly got my head around very recently (and I mean VERY recently). Sure, I've kind of known this to be the way we should think all along, but actually thinking this way takes some doing. We're so accustomed to compartmentalising our betting returns into set periods of time - usually months and seasons - that it's almost impossible to avoid setting our day to day betting against a backdrop of wanting a good month. When I was writing the blog, I really didn't want to write monthly reviews (I don't know how you feel about writing yours) but felt so compelled to that I couldn't resist. It's crazy, and by thinking this way I believe we sometimes (well I do, anyway) add to the pressure we put ourselves under when things aren't going well.

    I've recently stopped recording my results on a monthly basis and instead update all my betting records daily but on an ongoing basis. No longer do I have results for January, February, etc, but just one ongoing, constantly updated betting record. When I've made a certain amount of profit too, I'll make a withdrawal, compared to the way I've done it until very recently which was to withdraw any profit I'd made during the month on the last day of that month. It's a different mindset, and one that isn't easy to adjust to, I'm finding. But I reckon if we can get on top of this, it will be much, much easier to put the poor runs that inevitably happen, into their proper context.

    Hope that makes sense!

    Cheers, now. :)


  4. Hi Rowan.

    Yes, I agree with you completely around a month being an arbitrary period that doesn’t really mean anything. I guess all of us work different ways and given I run the service, it has always made sense to look at things monthly and provide monthly overviews and then round things up at season end. What I am finding this season is that my attitude is starting to change a little when assessing my own betting portfolio and returns and whereas I would see a season or a calendar year as a long time (as it happens, both have 9 months betting for me), I’m starting to think that’s not long enough. A long-time betting is probably 2-3 years rather than a season or a year.

    I’ve now been betting on football for over 4 years and I’m in my 4th season of the service (I started betting on footie in early 2010) and that’s probably a decent time period. I’m not sure what has happened in the last few months or this season really matters to me as long as I keep thinking long-term with regards my betting. Easier said than done as you say!

    It’s slightly different for a service or a tipster though and I think it’s probably fair that tipsters/systems/services are judged annually (be it season or calendar year) although I still think the results need to be taken into some sort of long-term context. I was recently voted best tipster of 2013 whereas all the profits came in the first half of the year! Likewise, I’ve started 2014 well and I hope 2014 is a great year and I retain that award next year but sandwiched in between might be an average season for 2013/14 season!

    I guess in my chosen field of football, there are a number of services now that have been operating for a long-period with successful results and therefore, I see my own service in the same category now. The fact these services have ups and downs over a year or a season is probably part and parcel of the game. I don’t buy into the theory that every service/system/tipster needs to make a profit every season, month, week or day to be seen as successful. As this blog shows fairly commonly, results on any day, week, month can be anything!

    It’s an interesting one and I suspect people are always going to be wary of a tipster saying that they need to be judged long-term as if they don’t have an edge, they get subscription fees for a long-time for having no edge and therefore, I suspect judging tipsters/systems annually is probably the right thing to do even though in some circumstances, it could lead to the wrong conclusions being drawn I suspect.

    Cheers for the comment.