Monday, 9 June 2014

Euro Systems 2013/14 Season Review

Before I start reviewing the performance of the Euro systems this season, I should touch on the results the previous season and the changes implemented as a result. Although this is the 2nd season I’ve had Euro ratings running live, the rating algorithms this season were not the same rating algorithms as last season. Here’s a quick recap of the results for the Euro systems in the 2012/13 season:

A loss of 127.7pts from 2,880 bets. Both rating algorithms lost badly and the only saving grace was that the filtering worked fairly well on the systems and this helped minimise the losses. It was actually very encouraging that systems E2-E7, E3-E6 and E3-E7 made a profit when the ratings were so poor as it meant that that the filtering idea I applied on the UK systems worked on the Euro systems too.

If we look at the breakdown between Home and Aways, we can see the following:

There were slightly more Away bets than Home bets and the overall average odds were 3.84. Homes were actually the main reason for the loss but overall, I was uncomfortable with this split of Home/Away bets in the Euro leagues and I thought the average odds of 3.84 were a little too high for my liking.

At the end of the 2012/13 season, I basically decided that I should scrap these rating algorithms completely and start again for last season. I decided I wanted a set of Euro systems that were Home based rather than an even split between Homes and Aways. This would reduce the average odds and hopefully reduce the losing runs the Euro systems would experience.

Last Summer, I developed a couple of new rating algorithms and from backtesting, the results looked more in line with what I was aiming for. 70%-75% of bets would be Home bets and I was much more comfortable with this idea for Euro ratings. I hoped that by learning from my experience of building the ratings the previous season and seeing them fail, I’d be able to build better ratings the second time round. Here’s the results from 2013/14 season:

I guess the first point I want to make is that if you fail at something once, it doesn’t make you a failure! These results are much, much better than what I achieved with the first set of Euro ratings I built and therefore, I’m really pleased with the season these Euro systems have had. A 7.5% return over 2,075 bets isn’t an amazing return by any means but considering the mess I made in the 2012/13 season with these bets, it at least gets the Euro bets into profit over the first two seasons.

I’ve said this before but I’m quite proud of my ability to build profitable ratings and systems and therefore, my ego did take a bit of a knock after the first season with the Euro bets. However, seeing both algorithms make a profit of 5.8% and 6.7% respectively over a season is a great result and a boost to my confidence in these Euro ratings.

Looking at the results in detail then, I think the disappointing aspect is that as we move down the systems on the first algorithm, the results slightly deteriorate. Obviously, the opposite was true in the first season although I’d rather the filtering didn’t work great and the systems be profitable than the filtering working great but the systems being unprofitable!

On algorithm two, the filtering did work well and system E7 made a profit of 11.6% from 184 bets. A really solid return and given the fact the 5 single systems were profitable, it isn’t surprising to see the combined systems do well.

The 6 combined systems all had a decent season and profits of 6.2% to 10.7% were achieved across all 6 systems. The bet number this season was lower than the first season (deliberately so as I tried to focus on quality rather than quantity) and I think this worked well. Of course, the knock-on impact is seen on the Return On Capital figures and these Euro systems in their current guise are never going to make anyone rich but I’m just pleased they had a profitable season.

Here are the results by month:

December was a nightmare month and at the end of December, I think I was seriously contemplating giving up on looking to find an edge in the Euro leagues. The systems bounced back almost straightaway though in January and I guess the reason I’m so upbeat in this review is because they ended the season well. I think how systems end the season swings my general mood when writing a review and these systems ended the season strongly.

The results by league are always interesting to look at and here they are:

If I look back at the 2012/13 season, France and Spain were the two profitable leagues (especially Spain) whereas Italy and Germany had massive losses.  Spain again ranks highest although France is a losing season this season and Italy doesn’t look great either. I know we can’t really sum season’s together as it’s different systems for each season but Spain has now created a profit of over 200pts profit from over 1,300 bets. A really good performance.

Looking at the split by Home and Aways, we see this:

Aways had a tremendous season and achieved an ROI of 13.6% from 517 bets. Homes made a 5.5% ROI from 1,558 bets which in itself is a great performance and overall, really pleased with the split of bets and their respective profits. All things being equal, Aways should achieve a higher ROI as the average odds are much higher.

I still think it’s too early to draw too many conclusions and after one bad season and one good season, I don’t think I’d be shouting that these systems have an edge in the Euro leagues. Clearly, the ratings now are much better than what I had originally but just how good they are, I’m not too sure.

I suggest the next season is the key season for these systems and if we get another positive season, I think we can start trying to draw conclusions about what sort of edge the Euro systems may have and whether or not they are worth following seriously going forward. I’ve now followed a couple of Euro systems for two seasons and managed to make a profit each season. My stakes have been very low and even after the season past, I’m not confident enough to increase stakes to anything other than trial stakes. I’ll apply the same staking level next season too.

To end the review, here’s the updated targets for these systems going forward:

One thing that strikes me from looking at this table is the low average Return on Capital figures. Unfortunately, with the systems having a lower turnover than the UK systems to try to improve the ROI, it really impacts the ROC and therefore, when refreshing the rating algorithm this Summer with updated data, I’ll be looking to see if we can increase the bet number slightly whilst at the same time, maintaining the same level of ROI. 

That concludes the review of the Euro systems. I think we need to see more live results before drawing any concrete conclusions and I’m really keen to start tracking the Underlying Euro results next season which will help me to put this season into some sort of context. I know the draw strike rate was lower this season than normal and therefore, it’s likely my ratings have capitalised on this to an extent although I also think there was an Away bias this season and 75% of my bets were Homes, so it’s hard to read too much into the Underlying results without doing the necessary work like I did for the UK Underlying results.

Last review for the 2013/14 season will be the Under/Over systems which won’t take too long as these systems are now in their retirement home!

No comments:

Post a Comment