Thursday, 5 June 2014

Misc Systems 2013/14 Season Review

Here’s the results for the 2013/14 season:

An interesting set of results and depending on which system or systems were followed, results could have been quite variable.

The reason the Misc systems have this particular name is due to the fact that the systems are a bit of a mixed bunch. 3 systems are created from cross referring other systems on other algorithms and 3 systems try to filter the bets on 3 other systems by using a different method to my other systems. This season was their 3rd live season. The first season was poor, the second season was great and unfortunately, the 3rd season has been poor again.

It’s very disappointing that system 6-32 made a loss over the season.  Given the fact system 32 was profitable (3.7%) and system 6 was profitable (3%), then to see this system not make a profit is very poor. It’s a common theme in these reviews at the moment I think but what is the point of system 6-32 if it can’t improve on the returns of system 6 or 32?

System 21-31 made a profit of 6% from 405 bets. Looks OK on the surface and a decent season for any football system I suspect. However, when you see system 31 made a profit of 7.6% from 753 bets, you have to question what is the point of cross referring the system with system 21 if it reduces the ROI and reduces the turnover?

System 6-21-31 made a profit of 6.7% from 382 bets. Same comment applies really to system 21-31. A good return this season but when you see the returns system 31 have achieved, you have to ask what is the point of this system if it can’t improve on system 31?

System TOX is basically a filter of system 21. The system made a profit of 4% from 292 bets. System 21 only made a profit of 2.6% from 462 bets, so I guess in a way, this system at least managed to beat the system it is filtered from. However, 4% return isn’t really acceptable for this system given the historical drawdowns and therefore,  it’s a poor season for this system.

System STOY is a filter on system 6-21. Clearly, it is very highly correlated with system TOX and therefore, following TOX and STOY in a portfolio provides no diversification at all. This season, STOY made a profit of 7.5% from 284 bets. A profit of 21.4pts. Considering system 6-21 only made 12pts profit from 410 bets, STOY at least managed to do its job this season. 7.5% is a decent return and STOY was the best performing system out of the 6 Misc systems this season.

That only leaves STOZ which is a filter on system 31. Last season, STOZ made a profit of 21% from 336 bets and going into this season, STOZ would have been high on the list of TFA systems to follow this season. Unfortunately, this season was a nightmare. The system did an amazing job for most of the season of picking the worst bets on system 31! The system crept into profit by season end and ended up with a profit of 2.3% from 388 bets. When you consider system 31 made a 7.6% profit from 753 bets, then to see STOZ made this sort of return is very poor.  A nightmare season for the system.

If we look at the results by Home and Away, we can see where the issues were this season. Here’s the results:

Aways made a profit of 9.6% from 1,369 bets but Homes had a nightmare season. A loss of 10.1% from 483 bets. Considering how difficult it was to make profits from Aways and how ‘easy’ it should have been on Homes, to see these results is a real headscratcher!

Coming into the season, TOX, STOY and STOZ had the best results for Home bets out of all my systems, so it’s surprising to see these systems make a loss on Homes. The other 3 systems were never that great with Home bets anyway before this season, so seeing losses on these systems is less surprising.

Let’s take a look at the results for the last 3 seasons in total to see if these systems add anything to the service at all:

I think looking at these results in total, things look much better than the last season in isolation.

I think it’s fair to say that system 6-32 isn’t really a system worth following. 20.7pts profit from 641 bets is a poor return and when you consider system 32 has made 25pts profit from 512 bets, I think this highlights the fact system 6-32 does nothing for the service. I’ll keep it going for another season but I would look to retire this system at the end of next season if the same pattern remains.

System 21-31 has made a profit of 7.7% from 1,280 bets. Clearly, the system has an edge and it’s not a bad return for a football system but as always, we need to ask ourselves what this system brings to the service. System 21 has made 7.2% from 2,111 bets and system 31 has made a profit of 7.3% from 2,157 bets. Clearly, system 21-31 improves the returns on system 21 and 31 slightly but also reduces the turnover greatly. For those that want a lower turnover system than 21 or 31, they could do worse than follow system 21-31 I think.

System 6-21-31 has made a profit of 7.2% from 1,191 bets. Clearly, this system is not as good as system 21-31 and therefore, I don’t think it adds anything to the service that systems 6,21, 31 or 21-31 already bring to the party.  I’ll give it another season but I would look to retire this system after this season.

TOX has made a profit 9.9% from 877 bets and is actually the best system out of all the Misc Systems. Given TOX is correlated to system 21, it’s surprising that this is the case as system 6-21 and system 31 are stronger systems than system 21. System 21 has a return of 7.2% from 2,111 bets and therefore, TOX is a great alternative to system 21 I think for those that want to follow the 2nd algorithm but don’t want to follow every bet.

STOY has made a profit of 9.4% from 872 bets. Given this is correlated to system 6-21, it’s pleasing to see that 6-21 has made a profit of 7.7% from 1,751 bets and therefore, STOY improves on this also.

STOZ also improves on system 31. A profit of 9.4% from 996 bets is a great return as system 31 has made a profit of 7.3% from 2,157 bets. It’s an interesting one as I think there is an argument to say that it’s much better to have a lower ROI by a couple of points and a turnover over 100% higher and I would agree with this. System 31 is a better system than STOZ IMO but I can see why some people may not want to follow all the bets system 31 has and therefore, STOZ provides a good alternative to system 31.

Overall then, I think 4 of the 6 Misc systems add something to the service. 6-32 and 6-21-31 don’t really improve on the returns of the single systems and therefore, I wouldn’t suggest people follow these systems.

Here’s the live results split by Home and Away bets:

For the first 3 systems, it is clear that the Home bets are fairly weak. 6-32, 21-31 and 6-21-31 actually make no profit in total from Home bets. However, the Away bets on these systems do OK although 6-32 lags behind.

For the 3 SGM systems, the Home returns continue to outperform the Aways even though the season past has put a big dent in the Home returns.  I think it’s clear that over the first 3 seasons, the Home bets on these systems have been my best Home bets and therefore, it’s not surprising to see many other systems struggle with Home bets last season. If these 3 systems can’t make a profit backing Homes, I doubt many of my other systems can.

Here’s the targets for next season for these systems:

I think the ROC each of these systems have achieved on average each season tells the story of these systems and 5 of the 6 systems appear to make around 50% ROC each season which is a very good return. The targets for the next season are pretty much in line for each of the 5 systems too and therefore, it’s easy to see that system 6-32 isn’t worth following and should probably be dropped from the service.

I think I’ve maybe come across as a little harsh towards the Misc Systems overall but at the end of the day, the systems don’t appear to improve too much on the other systems and therefore, we have to question if it’s worth following any of these systems. I do think there should be a place in everyone’s portfolio for a Misc System but I think if you start following too many of these systems, you basically end up with a very correlated portfolio of bets which isn’t a great idea as last season showed.

I personally find it very difficult to separate the 5 systems. Before last season, I would have gone with STOZ as the strongest of the 5 but after a poor season, it now lags behind the other 4 systems! I think any of the 5 is probably worth following in a portfolio although if you are following systems 21,31 or 6-21 already, you have to ask yourself what is the point of following one of these 5 Misc systems……

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