Tuesday, 10 June 2014

Under-Over Systems 2013/14 Season Review

I’m going to keep this review very, very short. Both these systems have now been retired. I should have probably retired them after the 2012/13 season as I think it was clear then was no edge there any longer and I think for a market such as the Under/Over goals market, systems which were built a few years ago on data from before that won’t maintain an edge.

I think you would need to have pretty good ratings to maintain an edge in this competitive market and although these systems started off OK, they flattered to deceive and probably needed a lot more time investment in them to make them viable long-term. Given I only looked at these systems as a favour to someone, I wasn’t going to put the necessary work in to maintain an edge on systems that no one followed!

Here’s the results for the 2013/14 season:

Not a pretty sight and in a market which is not too far away from a toss of a coin, to only hit a 44% strike rate is poor. The season before saw a small loss and overall, the systems clearly have no edge after a promising first season. Over 3 seasons, a profit of 12.6pts from just over 1,061 bets probably tells the story and therefore, both these systems will now be retired.

Phew, that was a short review! 


  1. Under/Over 2.5 systems will really depended upon recent goal frequency between Home & Away team (i.e. last 6 games) and measured up with the Opening Goal Line and the odds!
    I would say based on Under/Over market, is not just about toss a coin, but, it is a profitable market, you either win or lose as long as you can catch the right odds on a particular match, you are in there to beat the bookies! GL

  2. Sorry Sammy, I think you misunderstood my humour with my comment. I do appreciate how to find an edge with this market and I'm not sure tossing a coin would help. :)

    My comment was about the fact that at the average odds, I needed to hit a 50% strike rate. Hence, similar to tossing a coin!