Tuesday, 23 December 2014

December Results So Far......

I’ve been working flat out to try to bring the results up to date before the Festive period kicks off. It’s a manic few weeks for the UK bets, so there are a lot of bets about to be placed over the next two weeks. It has been another very frustrating month so far and we’re now pretty much 4 months into the season and it’s been the toughest start to the season my ratings and systems have had. The weekend past is probably one of the most frustrating days the systems have had for a long time and off the back of a tough start to the season, we can just do without it I think.

The weekend past was littered with draws and late goals and the combination of both these things turned an OK weekend for my ratings into a disaster in terms of the P&L. Aways this season have never got going at all and my ratings just can’t string a decent period of results together this season. We have the odd good weekend, followed by a poor spell and then the odd good day. When you add up the P&L, it’s not pretty unfortunately and with nearly 40% of the season gone, achieving a profit across all systems combined this season is starting to look quite a challenge.

Anyway, the good news is that we have 60% of the season left and it doesn’t take too much for the season to turn around. A few good sets of results and the P&L will look a lot different but on the other hand, there isn’t a lot of room to manoeuvre if results don’t pick up. Not sure we can continue on like this indefinitely and I really need my ratings to start making some profits rather than treading water!

Here’s the results up to 22nd December:

Est Systems

A very skewed set of results and as I said in the introduction, the results are littered with draws. A loss of 21.96pts from 261 bets. However, the AH returns were scary and not what we want to see. AH0.50 made a profit of 59.71pts which is an unreal number. The average odds were 1.60 for these bets, so to make a profit of 22.8% at these average odds is a bit silly. Draws have been killing the returns and all it takes is a few of these draws to have been wins and the loss would have been a profit.

New Systems

Another skewed set of results but unfortunately, the losses are horrendous here. A loss of 85.79pts from 298 bets. AH returns were much better but even AH0.50 was only a profit of 11.31pts. Still 97pts better than backing outright though!

A real struggle for these systems and the damage was done very early on in the month.

Misc Systems

Same story again with AH returns being much better. A loss of 31.11pts from 150 bets. AH0.50 made a profit of 19.34pts.

Draw Systems

Given my comments above about the draw being a major pest so far this month, these results won’t be too surprising. A profit of 53.29pts from 181 bets. Only issue here is that I don’t have enough UK Draw systems to cover the losses on the outright betting systems!

These Draw systems started the season very slowly (as they did in their first season) but now they’ve got a decent sample of bets behind them, the results have again been decent.

I suspect if they can have another second half of the season like the first half, these systems will quickly propel themselves up the TFA pecking order in terms of results, especially since most other systems are on the slide!

Euro Systems

Annoyingly, the same trend as the UK systems with the AH returns being better. Overall though, a loss of 0.1pts from 272 bets.

Euro Draw Systems

Not going to moan too much as I covered it on a recent blog post but the results are dismal for these systems. The draw strike rate has picked up in some of the leagues but these systems are not hitting the winners and the strike rate is amazingly low.

I’ve never been a fan of laying bets but another second half of the season like this and we may have the best lay the draw systems I’ve ever seen! You couldn’t really aim to be hitting a 22% strike rate for draws if you tried in these Euro leagues and therefore, the results are abysmal.

A loss of 76.9pts from 291 bets. Rubbish.

Overall, a horrible update I’m afraid and the systems have dug themselves into yet another hole this season. I think they’ve been in 3 or 4 holes now but this is another one to clawback from.  A loss of 162.57pts from 1,453 bets.

It’s going to be a losing month (again!) unless the systems recover these losses over the rest of the month. Continues like it has been going recently and we’ll have a record losing month possibly.

Let’s see what happens…….

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