Tuesday, 2 December 2014

Updated Underlying Results

This is a very quick post on the updated Underlying results before I get on with the monthly review of November.

Here’s the updated results for the UK leagues for the games I’ve rated so far this season:

November is maybe the most perfect month I’ve ever seen for the Underlying results with a small loss in each category. Of course, results at this level can be misleading and what we actually saw in the month was a small number of big priced teams winning which to be fair to my ratings, were quite difficult to find. This happens every month though and it levels out over the season I suspect, so not using that as an excuse for why ratings didn’t do as well as I would have hoped for given the underlying results this month.

To be fair, I remove algorithm 3 from that comment. Algorithm 3 made a profit of 10.9% this month which is a stunning month, more so given the underlying results weren’t that easy.

At the other end of the scale, algorithm 4 made a 7% loss this month and off the back of losses in September and October, I think the end is near for this algorithm.

Algorithm 4 has always been the weakest algorithm since it launched and although I refreshed it in the Summer, I would be lying if I said I was confident that it had too much of an edge. The only hope I had for the system was the fact that the bets with >5% value appeared to have an edge but this season so far, even these bets have been struggling.

The other 2 algorithms are treading water this season but as I said in my last blog post, I personally think break-even after 3 months this season isn’t a bad return given the results.

So, 3 months into the season and Aways are showing a loss of 10.2%. The last 4 seasons have witnessed December being profitable for underlying Away bets, so I hope this happens again!

Here’s the updated results for the Euro Leagues for the games I’ve rated so far this season:

Well, unless you are following Euro Draws, you should be loving these results. If the day ever comes when the UK leagues start showing these underlying results, I’ll probably retire in anticipation of the profits I’ll be able to make! As it happens, my Euro ratings aren’t very good I think and therefore, making money in the Euro leagues seems to be beyond my rating capability at the moment.

The Euro ratings are doing OK this season but looking at the results, OK is actually not very good. Not sure the trading conditions can get any more favourable for Euro systems and therefore, I have my doubts about their long-term potential. Admittedly, it’s early days and it’s hard to knock ratings which are profitable (algorithm 1 is +8.9% and algorithm 2 is 25.3%) but I’m not sure how profitable these ratings really are. I have my doubts.

Not sure how I assess the Euro Draw ratings really. Algorithm 1 is -22.7% and algorithm 2 is -31.8%. I think I just have to live with the fact that it is impossible for these ratings to make a profit given the low strike rates. Before the season started, I remember first looking at the Euro Underlying results and commenting on how difficult it appeared to be to make a profit following Draws in these leagues. Roll on 3 months, 3 massive losses if backing Draws in these months and I think it’s safe to say my attitude hasn’t changed. I’d go as far to say that I probably should steer clear of Euro Draws as so far, looking at these bets hasn’t been the best idea I’ve had!

Overall, I suspect we’ll see a correction of some sort for the Euro Draw systems over the remainder of the season but with the start they have had, break-even would be a fantastic result in their first live season. 

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