Same
story as last month and I’m going to try to keep this review a little shorter.
I say shorter rather than short as I’ll no doubt still end up writing 5,000
words to summarise another tricky month for my ratings and systems. I will try
to not write too much about the season to date as I plan on following this post
with a post looking at the season to date for the systems.
We
have seen by the Underlying results post that the UK underlying results were
quite benign this month for the UK and therefore, I would have hoped that we
would see most systems post a profit this month (they haven’t!). Underlying
results at the level I’m looking at them every month only tell part of the
story and as always, if I’m backing Homes when Aways have been winning, I’m
never going to make a profit even though Aways may be profitable!
One
thing I did notice this month from my own betting was a shocking performance
from the high value bets generally. I stake according to value in one of my two
portfolios of bets and it has been a disaster this month. Again, this probably
indicates the wrong type of bets were winning and I’m sure we’ll see that in
the results review below. Of course, it’s a short-term trend and historically,
missing low value bets hasn’t been a bad idea but in a month where they have
kept the results afloat, it hurts a little to see the low value bets do so
well.
3rd
disappointing month of the season and it’s been a tough season so far. Next
post will look at the results this season to date.
Est
Systems
Here’s
the results of algorithm 1:
A
loss of 1.7pts from 110 bets. An ROI of -1.6%.
A
disappointing month given the underlying results and I would have hoped the
algorithm could make a profit this month. The other issue is the results by
value band and we can see that the low value bets made a profit of 9.4pts
whereas the bets with value of 5%+ made a loss of 11.1pts. Not ideal for those
of us using value in our staking plans or filtering the bets by value but as
always, we can’t read too much into one month’s results.
Here’s
the split by Home and Away:
Similar
story to the previous months with Aways making a massive loss (10.4pts from 64
bets) and Homes making a profit (8.7pts from 46 bets). Homes low value
(<5%) bets is where all the profit is this month with a profit of 13pts from
26 bets.
Overall,
a disappointing month overall for this algorithm with a small loss and being
honest, anyone following this algorithm would have done worse if they used the
value ratings as an additional filter.
Here’s
the results of algorithm 2:
0.6pts
profit from 103 bets. An ROI of 0.6%.
A
disappointing month again for this algorithm and interestingly, the same issue
applies with the value bands. All of the profit is in the lowest value band
(12.8pts from 66 bets) which hurts those using the value bands I suspect.
Here’s
the split by Home and Away:
Aways
only lost 1pt and Homes only made 1.6pts. However, both showed the same trend
with the low value bets doing best.
Overall,
a poor performance from both these algorithms and given the bets that won were
the wrong bets for the value bettors, I think I would expect the Est Systems to
lose money this month. If the ratings aren’t profitable overall and the value
filters aren’t working as well as they should, not sure the filtering of the
ratings by systems is going to improve things too much.
Here’s
the results of all the systems:
A
loss of 22.8pts from 476 bets. An ROI of -4.8%.
It’s
safe to say that the filtering is all over the place (again!). System 22 has
had a nightmare and this has had a knock-on effect onto the higher combined
systems. On the other hand, system 6-21 did quite well I think to turn a profit
given the results on 6 and 21 but 6-22 has had a nightmare as all the system 22
bets were picked up by system 6 which means 6-22 had them all.
7-22
has had a poor month after a good month last month and overall, the 6 combined
systems lost 10.3pts from 185 bets.
Not
too surprised at the results of the systems this month given the results on the
algorithms. It’s a poor month again for these systems and it’s worrying I
think.
The
Est systems have now been live for 39 months. The first 13 months created a
profit of 409pts from 4,056 bets. An ROI of 10%,
The
second 13 months created a profit of 382.9pts from 4,349 bets. An ROI of 8.8%.
The
last 13 months have created a loss of 13.1pts from 3,372 bets. An ROI of
-0.38%.
I
guess if the systems didn’t have such a good track record over the first 2
periods, I’m not sure I’d have been as disappointed with them as I have been
over the last 13 months of bets. I’m sure anyone following these systems is
getting frustrated at the lack of progress over the last season and a bit but
then again, the systems aren’t doing too much apart from treading water. I’ve
said this before but I’m not against retiring systems if I feel like the edge
has gone and these systems definitely fall into this category these days. I
will of course give them to season end but if we don’t see an improvement, I
expect systems 7 & 8 will be retired along with the corresponding combined
systems 7-21 thru to 8-22.
New
Systems
Here’s
the results for algorithm 3:
A
profit of 12.9pts from 118 bets. An ROI of 10.9%. At an overall level, a very
good month for this algorithm and it kick starts the season as it has been like
ploughing through treacle so far this season on this algorithm, with one step
forward, one step back. Rightly or wrongly, I place a lot of emphasis on system
31 as I know it’s the most followed algorithm and therefore, if system 31 can
do well, it papers over the cracks a little on the other algorithms.
Homes
made the majority of the profits which is a common theme this season but I
think it’s disappointing when you look at the split by value band. Similar to
the first 2 algorithms, the profits have been made in the lowest value bands.
21.6pts profit from 55 bets for bets with less than 5% value.
To
be fair to this algorithm, the lowest value bets have never been loss making
and therefore, those who exclude bets with less than 5% value when they appear
on this algorithm are taking a chance. However, the bets are not as profitable
as the higher value bets and therefore, I can see why people maybe exclude the
low value bets. For months like this though, it really hurts to see so much
profit in the lowest band, knowing that some would filter these bets out.
Those
who follow the value ratings will know that there isn’t much between a bet in
the first two value bands. A bet with 4.99% value is in the low band, a bet
with 5.01% is in the next band. Looking at the results, big losses are in the
5%-10% band. 11pts loss from 37 bets. Frustrating that more of the low value
bets were not in this band.
Overall,
it’s hard to be critical of an algorithm which makes 10% in a month although as
always, the results haven’t fallen perfectly (the never will!).
Here’s
the results for algorithm 4:
The
blacksheep of the TFA family and it’s a 3rd losing month in a row. A
loss of 4.1pts from 94 bets. Wrote a little about this a recent blog post but
this algorithm is probably on its last legs. I refreshed it in the Summer and
hoped to improve it but the results just aren’t good enough. Not sure I have
the appetite to start again with proofing a new 4th algorithm and I
suspect I may retire the 4th algorithm at season end.
Looking
at the results, the profits were in the lowest band and that means over a
month, all 4 algorithms have achieved profits for bets with less than 5% value
and bets over 5% value were badly loss making. Another record I think as I
can’t recall this happening on every algorithm in the same month before.
With
the results on the algorithms, it’s difficult to know how the systems would do.
System 31 provides a great platform but system 41 will reduce the profits and
then looking at the fact the profits are all on low value bets, I would expect
the filtering didn’t work great this month since the teams I wanted to win
didn’t win!
Here’s
the results of the New Systems:
A
loss of 16.9pts from 505 bets. An ROI of -3.3%. The filtering on systems 32 and
33 was rubbish and therefore, the only combined systems to make a profit was
system 31-41 and 31-42. 31-42 had a nightmare season last season after a great
first season and as we’ll see in the next blog post, the system has really
bounced back so far this season.
Overall,
a poor month but given the way the results fell this month, not too surprised.
Misc
Systems
Here’s
the results of the Misc Systems this month:
A
loss of 12.4pts from 331 bets. An ROI of -3.7%. Nice profits on 6-21-31 and
21-31, offset by losses on the other 4 systems. It’s a weird set of results
considering most of the same bets appear on 21-31 as TOX, STOY or STOZ! For
example, STOZ had all of the bets that appeared on 6-21-31. Unfortunately, it
also had an additional 11 bets and didn’t hit any winners! Easier said than done
to achieve that particular feat.
Here’s
the split by Home/Away for these systems:
Another
massive loss on Aways with a loss of 28.5pts from 232 bets. Homes did better as
usual with a profit of 16.1pts from 99 bets.
It
will be interesting to see the results for the season split Home and Aways on
the systems as Aways must be in about as big a hole as I’ve ever seen in a
season! If I hadn’t refreshed the ratings in the Summer and incorporated more
Home bets, I dread to think what the loss would be this season on all systems!
Anyway,
another losing month for these systems although 6-21-31 and 21-31 are doing
better than the base ratings this season so far. Hopefully won’t end this way!
Draw
Systems
Here’s
the results of the Draw Systems this month:
A
profit of 25.9pts from 278 bets. Wow, a profit. Last month was a profit of
25.7pts from 263 bets. That’s about as consistent as these profits have ever
been!
I
had my doubts about these systems after the start to the season in September
and the massive loss but they’ve bounced back well. Still a long way to go to
reach the heights of the previous season but at least they have clawed back the
losses now after two decent months. Hoping to see these systems push on now and
hopefully start to create some sort of meaningful profit this season.
Euro
Systems
Here’s
the results:
A
loss of 36.9pts from 321 bets. Scratching my head if I’m honest about why these
systems are posting a loss when the underlying results have been so favourable
this month. The ratings haven’t done too badly (still underperformed though)
but the filtering has been a disaster on systems E2 and E3.
I’m
finding it very hard to understand the European results this season and I’m not
sure my ratings are finding it easy either. The results look fairly random and
although the underlying results point to it being quite easy, I’m not sure it
is. My ratings don’t seem to picking up Dortmund to lose often enough (I keep
having them drawing!) and things like this are throwing up massive profits for
the underlying results but it’s not as easy as it appears to be backing winners
at big odds all the time!
Euro
Draw Systems
Here’s
the results:
A
loss of 30.1pts from 309 bets. No need to scratch my head here as I understand
these results and I guess my only comment is that based on the underlying
results, I’m surprised the loss is not greater this month!
A
flat 14% loss if backing all Euro Draws in my rated games this season and it
has been impossible. Before the season started, I said it was a tough place to
make money based on the work I did in the Summer looking at the Underlying
results and the results so far have backed this up. I do feel like a correction
is due and if some sort of correction does come, I would hope the Euro Draw
systems do bounce back but it’s a long way back to break-even.
Overall,
a loss of 93.2pts from 2,220 bets. An ROI of -4.2%.
A
poor month again I think and similar to what I said at the end of the previous
two months, it could probably have been worse. It’s been a tough 3 months and
trying to not lose too badly has been the name of the game. It won’t always be
like this (I have to believe this, otherwise, I’d stop betting on footie now!)
and I’m hopeful we can get back to some sort of consistent profits like the
previous 4 seasons sooner rather than later.
December
is a key month (I said this about November!) and this is traditionally the time
of the year when the ratings do well. Games come thick and fast over the next 6
weeks or so and if I’m still struggling at the end of January, I expect it’s
going to be a really tough season for my systems to make any headway at all.
Next
post will look at the season to date. :(
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