Friday, 5 December 2014

November 2014 Monthly Review

Same story as last month and I’m going to try to keep this review a little shorter. I say shorter rather than short as I’ll no doubt still end up writing 5,000 words to summarise another tricky month for my ratings and systems. I will try to not write too much about the season to date as I plan on following this post with a post looking at the season to date for the systems.

We have seen by the Underlying results post that the UK underlying results were quite benign this month for the UK and therefore, I would have hoped that we would see most systems post a profit this month (they haven’t!). Underlying results at the level I’m looking at them every month only tell part of the story and as always, if I’m backing Homes when Aways have been winning, I’m never going to make a profit even though Aways may be profitable!

One thing I did notice this month from my own betting was a shocking performance from the high value bets generally. I stake according to value in one of my two portfolios of bets and it has been a disaster this month. Again, this probably indicates the wrong type of bets were winning and I’m sure we’ll see that in the results review below. Of course, it’s a short-term trend and historically, missing low value bets hasn’t been a bad idea but in a month where they have kept the results afloat, it hurts a little to see the low value bets do so well. 

3rd disappointing month of the season and it’s been a tough season so far. Next post will look at the results this season to date.

Est Systems

Here’s the results of algorithm 1:

A loss of 1.7pts from 110 bets. An ROI of -1.6%.

A disappointing month given the underlying results and I would have hoped the algorithm could make a profit this month. The other issue is the results by value band and we can see that the low value bets made a profit of 9.4pts whereas the bets with value of 5%+ made a loss of 11.1pts. Not ideal for those of us using value in our staking plans or filtering the bets by value but as always, we can’t read too much into one month’s results.

Here’s the split by Home and Away:

Similar story to the previous months with Aways making a massive loss (10.4pts from 64 bets) and Homes making a profit (8.7pts from 46 bets).  Homes low value (<5%) bets is where all the profit is this month with a profit of 13pts from 26 bets.

Overall, a disappointing month overall for this algorithm with a small loss and being honest, anyone following this algorithm would have done worse if they used the value ratings as an additional filter.

Here’s the results of algorithm 2:

0.6pts profit from 103 bets. An ROI of 0.6%.

A disappointing month again for this algorithm and interestingly, the same issue applies with the value bands. All of the profit is in the lowest value band (12.8pts from 66 bets) which hurts those using the value bands I suspect.

Here’s the split by Home and Away:

Aways only lost 1pt and Homes only made 1.6pts. However, both showed the same trend with the low value bets doing best.

Overall, a poor performance from both these algorithms and given the bets that won were the wrong bets for the value bettors, I think I would expect the Est Systems to lose money this month. If the ratings aren’t profitable overall and the value filters aren’t working as well as they should, not sure the filtering of the ratings by systems is going to improve things too much.

Here’s the results of all the systems:

A loss of 22.8pts from 476 bets. An ROI of -4.8%.

It’s safe to say that the filtering is all over the place (again!). System 22 has had a nightmare and this has had a knock-on effect onto the higher combined systems. On the other hand, system 6-21 did quite well I think to turn a profit given the results on 6 and 21 but 6-22 has had a nightmare as all the system 22 bets were picked up by system 6 which means 6-22 had them all.

7-22 has had a poor month after a good month last month and overall, the 6 combined systems lost 10.3pts from 185 bets.

Not too surprised at the results of the systems this month given the results on the algorithms. It’s a poor month again for these systems and it’s worrying I think.

The Est systems have now been live for 39 months. The first 13 months created a profit of 409pts from 4,056 bets. An ROI of 10%,

The second 13 months created a profit of 382.9pts from 4,349 bets. An ROI of 8.8%.

The last 13 months have created a loss of 13.1pts from 3,372 bets. An ROI of -0.38%.

I guess if the systems didn’t have such a good track record over the first 2 periods, I’m not sure I’d have been as disappointed with them as I have been over the last 13 months of bets. I’m sure anyone following these systems is getting frustrated at the lack of progress over the last season and a bit but then again, the systems aren’t doing too much apart from treading water. I’ve said this before but I’m not against retiring systems if I feel like the edge has gone and these systems definitely fall into this category these days. I will of course give them to season end but if we don’t see an improvement, I expect systems 7 & 8 will be retired along with the corresponding combined systems 7-21 thru to 8-22.

New Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm 3:

A profit of 12.9pts from 118 bets. An ROI of 10.9%. At an overall level, a very good month for this algorithm and it kick starts the season as it has been like ploughing through treacle so far this season on this algorithm, with one step forward, one step back. Rightly or wrongly, I place a lot of emphasis on system 31 as I know it’s the most followed algorithm and therefore, if system 31 can do well, it papers over the cracks a little on the other algorithms.

Homes made the majority of the profits which is a common theme this season but I think it’s disappointing when you look at the split by value band. Similar to the first 2 algorithms, the profits have been made in the lowest value bands. 21.6pts profit from 55 bets for bets with less than 5% value.

To be fair to this algorithm, the lowest value bets have never been loss making and therefore, those who exclude bets with less than 5% value when they appear on this algorithm are taking a chance. However, the bets are not as profitable as the higher value bets and therefore, I can see why people maybe exclude the low value bets. For months like this though, it really hurts to see so much profit in the lowest band, knowing that some would filter these bets out.

Those who follow the value ratings will know that there isn’t much between a bet in the first two value bands. A bet with 4.99% value is in the low band, a bet with 5.01% is in the next band. Looking at the results, big losses are in the 5%-10% band. 11pts loss from 37 bets. Frustrating that more of the low value bets were not in this band.

Overall, it’s hard to be critical of an algorithm which makes 10% in a month although as always, the results haven’t fallen perfectly (the never will!).

Here’s the results for algorithm 4:

The blacksheep of the TFA family and it’s a 3rd losing month in a row. A loss of 4.1pts from 94 bets. Wrote a little about this a recent blog post but this algorithm is probably on its last legs. I refreshed it in the Summer and hoped to improve it but the results just aren’t good enough. Not sure I have the appetite to start again with proofing a new 4th algorithm and I suspect I may retire the 4th algorithm at season end.

Looking at the results, the profits were in the lowest band and that means over a month, all 4 algorithms have achieved profits for bets with less than 5% value and bets over 5% value were badly loss making. Another record I think as I can’t recall this happening on every algorithm in the same month before.

With the results on the algorithms, it’s difficult to know how the systems would do. System 31 provides a great platform but system 41 will reduce the profits and then looking at the fact the profits are all on low value bets, I would expect the filtering didn’t work great this month since the teams I wanted to win didn’t win!

Here’s the results of the New Systems:

A loss of 16.9pts from 505 bets. An ROI of -3.3%. The filtering on systems 32 and 33 was rubbish and therefore, the only combined systems to make a profit was system 31-41 and 31-42. 31-42 had a nightmare season last season after a great first season and as we’ll see in the next blog post, the system has really bounced back so far this season.

Overall, a poor month but given the way the results fell this month, not too surprised.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results of the Misc Systems this month:

A loss of 12.4pts from 331 bets. An ROI of -3.7%. Nice profits on 6-21-31 and 21-31, offset by losses on the other 4 systems. It’s a weird set of results considering most of the same bets appear on 21-31 as TOX, STOY or STOZ! For example, STOZ had all of the bets that appeared on 6-21-31. Unfortunately, it also had an additional 11 bets and didn’t hit any winners! Easier said than done to achieve that particular feat.

Here’s the split by Home/Away for these systems:

Another massive loss on Aways with a loss of 28.5pts from 232 bets. Homes did better as usual with a profit of 16.1pts from 99 bets.

It will be interesting to see the results for the season split Home and Aways on the systems as Aways must be in about as big a hole as I’ve ever seen in a season! If I hadn’t refreshed the ratings in the Summer and incorporated more Home bets, I dread to think what the loss would be this season on all systems!

Anyway, another losing month for these systems although 6-21-31 and 21-31 are doing better than the base ratings this season so far. Hopefully won’t end this way!

Draw Systems

Here’s the results of the Draw Systems this month:

A profit of 25.9pts from 278 bets. Wow, a profit. Last month was a profit of 25.7pts from 263 bets. That’s about as consistent as these profits have ever been!

I had my doubts about these systems after the start to the season in September and the massive loss but they’ve bounced back well. Still a long way to go to reach the heights of the previous season but at least they have clawed back the losses now after two decent months. Hoping to see these systems push on now and hopefully start to create some sort of meaningful profit this season.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results:

A loss of 36.9pts from 321 bets. Scratching my head if I’m honest about why these systems are posting a loss when the underlying results have been so favourable this month. The ratings haven’t done too badly (still underperformed though) but the filtering has been a disaster on systems E2 and E3.

I’m finding it very hard to understand the European results this season and I’m not sure my ratings are finding it easy either. The results look fairly random and although the underlying results point to it being quite easy, I’m not sure it is. My ratings don’t seem to picking up Dortmund to lose often enough (I keep having them drawing!) and things like this are throwing up massive profits for the underlying results but it’s not as easy as it appears to be backing winners at big odds all the time!

Euro Draw Systems

Here’s the results:

A loss of 30.1pts from 309 bets. No need to scratch my head here as I understand these results and I guess my only comment is that based on the underlying results, I’m surprised the loss is not greater this month!

A flat 14% loss if backing all Euro Draws in my rated games this season and it has been impossible. Before the season started, I said it was a tough place to make money based on the work I did in the Summer looking at the Underlying results and the results so far have backed this up. I do feel like a correction is due and if some sort of correction does come, I would hope the Euro Draw systems do bounce back but it’s a long way back to break-even.

Overall, a loss of 93.2pts from 2,220 bets. An ROI of -4.2%.

A poor month again I think and similar to what I said at the end of the previous two months, it could probably have been worse. It’s been a tough 3 months and trying to not lose too badly has been the name of the game. It won’t always be like this (I have to believe this, otherwise, I’d stop betting on footie now!) and I’m hopeful we can get back to some sort of consistent profits like the previous 4 seasons sooner rather than later.

December is a key month (I said this about November!) and this is traditionally the time of the year when the ratings do well. Games come thick and fast over the next 6 weeks or so and if I’m still struggling at the end of January, I expect it’s going to be a really tough season for my systems to make any headway at all.

Next post will look at the season to date. :(

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